State of U.S. Ladies' skating 2016-17

[shmay]

Wild inconsistency aside, Karen also does not have a 3F. This is problematic.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Wild inconsistency aside, Karen also does not have a 3F. This is problematic.

Resolving inconsistency is very difficult. I can think of two skaters who did: Carolina and Ashley. Carolina pulled the flip and lutz from her programs and slowly reintroduced them, and they ended up becoming solid jumps for her. Ashley stopped making serious attempts at the 3/3 and going for clean, 6 triple LPs before reintroducing the difficulty. Karen seems to be more in the mold of Gracie, in which mistakes can come on any jump, so that seems to be a little more difficult of an issue to overcome.

 

[KatGrace1925]

Resolving inconsistency is very difficult. I can think of two skaters who did: Carolina and Ashley. Carolina pulled the flip and lutz from her programs and slowly reintroduced them, and they ended up becoming solid jumps for her. Ashley stopped making serious attempts at the 3/3 and going for clean, 6 triple LPs before reintroducing the difficulty. Karen seems to be more in the mold of Gracie, in which mistakes can come on any jump, so that seems to be a little more difficult of an issue to overcome.

I don't actually think Ashley has completely solved inconsistency. She had a couple great competitions but if she is out on the ice I still don't feel comfortable that she is going to hit everytime.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I don't actually think Ashley has completely solved inconsistency. She had a couple great competitions but if she is out on the ice I still don't feel comfortable that she is going to hit everytime.

You're right. I suppose it's more accurate to say her results have been more consistent. That may be a reflection of the lack of depth in the current ladies field more than anything else.

 

[shmay]

Resolving inconsistency is very difficult. I can think of two skaters who did: Carolina and Ashley.

Yeah, the list ain't long. Certainly Adam Rippon is starting to earn those stripes. Butyrskaya also could qualify. Maybe Rochette

 

[KatGrace1925]

True, and Ashley has changed the perception people have of her skating by delivering great performaces even when the elements aren't all there. I didn't really like her as a skater until the year after the olympics, she made it clear she was ready to fight for her place at the top. I hope she keeps growing in consistency as he head toward Olympic season.

 

[Icey]

Gee, I had Chen on the World's team. lol

 

[andromache]

You can say this about any skater who underperforms. I understand the excitement because of her speed, big jumps, and great spins, but you can't ignore the 10 senior events that have given her an opportunity to show what she is capable of. Ashley would be capable of a 150 LP score if she hit all her levels and nailed 7 triples with no "!" or "e" (and skated in the US), but I don't think any of us would argue that Ashley can be a 150+ skater.

I think we as fans have a tendency to pin our hopes on/get excited about the people with the raw talent and natural qualities like Gracie and Karen, even if time and again they let us down. Those two have higher ceilings and more potential than, say, skaters like Ashley and Polina.

But Karen is in a different boat than Ashley also in that she's been with the same coach for a long time and she obviously hasn't decided to seek a new situation with a more experienced, elite coach who might bring more stability to her skating. She hasn't worked with any well-known choreographers. She shouldn't wait until it's too late to get to that next level with her skating. Gracie, too, ended up making the move to that elite level, in part by moving to Frank and Lori. Although it may not have made her more consistent in the long run or improved her nerves, it's put her in World medal contention and won her National championships and gotten her to the GPF. OTOH, someone like Polina Edmunds arguably lost the National championships because her skating/programs didn't match Gracie's world class level. If Karen wants to move her career forward, she probably needs a change to a coach who has trained champions.

Regarding the question of Ashley's consistency/lack thereof - she's as consistent or more consistent than any other current lady over the age of 20.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Gee, I had Chen on the World's team. lol

It could happen. There's at least one spot that could go to any of 6-8 women. No one has skated well enough on the GP to secure a place on the World team, so I fully expect the spot to go to the top 3 (age-eligible) finishers. It's hard for me to see Ashley missing out since I think the US panel might be willing to overlook her UR issues if she otherwise skates well, but they can't do much to prop up Gracie if she has multiple pops and falls.

 

[KatGrace1925]

It could happen. There's at least one spot that could go to any of 6-8 women. No one has skated well enough on the GP to secure a place on the World team, so I fully expect the spot to go to the top 3 (age-eligible) finishers. It's hard for me to see Ashley missing out since I think the US panel might be willing to overlook her UR issues if she otherwise skates well, but they can't do much to prop up Gracie if she has multiple pops and falls.

They won't need to prop up Gracie. Her goal is nationals and I am betting on her having it together by then. An athlete facing her dream slipping away can be a very dangerous contender to underestimate.

 

[topaz emerald]

Return to potential. How's that?
Karen Chen is spectacular when she was clean. Can't say that about some of the world medalists recently.

Based on her NHK long program performance, I see Karen is a fighter. But she doesn't have that wow factor. If judges wanted to, they could have scored her PCs higher, as some folks have said she didn't score that high.

 

[topaz emerald]

The US bronze medalist form, I suppose! She still needs to score a little bit higher in the SP -- her PB is still a few points off her junior days. She can score much bigger numbers if she does that and clean up the rest of the URs in both programs.

I was actually really surprised the judges gave her the bronze over Polina Edmunds. I still remember it, haven't forgotten it, lol! I knew she was going to go through a puberty battle. Judges couldn't see this? lol

 

[topaz emerald]

To be fair, at the time of her "one great program" at Nationals, she already had people paying some attention to her because of her modest successes on the JGP and as a novice/intermediate nationally.

Plus, there's a lot to like about Karen's skating. Speed, interpretation, good spins, big jumps. Though staying with Tammy Gambill has been a mistake. Someone who jumps as well as Karen does should not be a chronic UR case - she needs more snap into her rotations, IMO. I'm a total non-expert, but it seems to me that she's very slow about starting her rotations after take-off. Someone like Brian Orser would work wonders with her. How long will it be before a US lady goes to him?

Yes, I noticed she doesn't rotate fast, that's why she under-rotates her 2nd triple jump.
Don't know if Brian will take on any American lady skater....but I have wondered that myself.

 

[topaz emerald]

She has all these characteristics. She is a very good skater but her programs feel rushed and frantic to me. When there is a change in tempo of the music, she still skates the same. That's probably true of many skaters, but if a skater doesn't have great programs they need to hit all the jumps to get the marks.

exactly, that's how I feel with her. I didn't know what it was about her that just didn't click with me.

 

[topaz emerald]

I don't actually think Ashley has completely solved inconsistency. She had a couple great competitions but if she is out on the ice I still don't feel comfortable that she is going to hit everytime.

I worry about Ashley, as she is aging now. Is she 25? She's pushing it. I don't know how much time she has left. It's hard at her age.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I just so happen to have made a video of all of the tech panel calls on Karen Chen from the 2016 NHK FS. Turn on the 1080HD for best quality but I rushed this together the other night and never really added the good effects to make it look good. Sorry about that.

3z-3t<
3f(e)
3lo <

I was going to do a video of the top 5 ladies and all of the calls but I just don't have time so this was already done and I noticed the discussion on Karen. I think the UR on the 3-3 was just an unfortunate error but the edge call on the 3f is warranted and she needs to fix it. Not sure how I feel about the 3lo being called UR but meh.....it was a sketchy landing so whatever.

 

[topaz emerald]

I just so happen to have made a video of all of the tech panel calls on Karen Chen from the 2016 NHK FS. Turn on the 1080HD for best quality but I rushed this together the other night and never really added the good effects to make it look good. Sorry about that.

3z-3t<
3f(e)
3lo <

I was going to do a video of the top 5 ladies and all of the calls but I just don't have time so this was already done and I noticed the discussion on Karen. I think the UR on the 3-3 was just an unfortunate error but the edge call on the 3f is warranted and she needs to fix it. Not sure how I feel about the 3lo being called UR but meh.....it was a sketchy landing so whatever.

nice video....the 3toe definitely under-rotated. The flip definitely wrong edge. The loop looks totally good.

 

[Blades of Passion]

3Toe was underrotated but that combo deserved +GOE. The lutz was brilliant! And the landings were on one foot, with flow out.

The 3Loop call really annoys me. She got a bit titled in the air but it was within the rotation range and it was a big jump with again a relatively clean one-foot landing.

I hope she gives us something amazing at Nationals, like she did in 2015. Would be great to have her on the world team; she's probably the most talented American lady right now.

 

[andromache]

I just so happen to have made a video of all of the tech panel calls on Karen Chen from the 2016 NHK FS. Turn on the 1080HD for best quality but I rushed this together the other night and never really added the good effects to make it look good. Sorry about that.

3z-3t<
3f(e)
3lo <

I was going to do a video of the top 5 ladies and all of the calls but I just don't have time so this was already done and I noticed the discussion on Karen. I think the UR on the 3-3 was just an unfortunate error but the edge call on the 3f is warranted and she needs to fix it. Not sure how I feel about the 3lo being called UR but meh.....it was a sketchy landing so whatever.

The UR on the 3-3 was more than an unfortunate error. IIRC, it has been a consistent issue with her 3-3. Her lutz is so huge that there's no momentum left to get that 3T just a tiny bit bigger to get it around. It's a frequent problem with her combos.

Re: Karen's relatively low PCS. Let's be real, her PCS has more to do with her lack of reputation/consistency than whether or not the judges liked her programs.

 

[champs]

She has all these characteristics. She is a very good skater but her programs feel rushed and frantic to me. When there is a change in tempo of the music, she still skates the same. That's probably true of many skaters, but if a skater doesn't have great programs they need to hit all the jumps to get the marks.

Based on the performances this season this description is far more appropriate for Grace Gold than for Karen Chen. JMO.