2015-16 State of U.S. Ladies skating

Last year was a bit of a crazy one for the American ladies of skating. The Grand Prix was a mixed bag-two ladies in the Final, one eventually withdrawing, but disasters like Polina at NHK as well-that left the top spot highly unpredictable heading into Nationals. Most people were (correctly) convinced Ashley would win after a great comeback at the Final, but with Gracie AWOL for almost three months, nobody really knew. When Ashley won Nationals extremely convincingly, several people thought she was practically guaranteed to medal at worlds-especially after Gracie's splatfest 4th-place outing at Four Continents (which she was expected to win) all but confirmed she wouldn't. And maybe even Polina, who won 4CC, had a shot, according to several fans (and Polina herself, in several interviews).
Haha, not.
In the end, it was Gracie who finished highest at worlds (a very respectable 4th, though not what she wanted) after a disastrous 8th-place short and a great 2nd place free. Ashley had a similar outing, rebounding from an 11th place short (still not sure how that happened) and an equally great 3rd place free to finish 5th. Polina came in 8th. Gracie went on to win the short at World Team Trophy (beating the reigning world champion and both of the other world medalists) and placed 3rd overall; Ashley placed 4th overall at that event. That season left the skating community thoroughly divided on who was the top American lady-besides the obvious two, Polina and Karen Chen were pegged as favorites several times-and nobody really knew who would be the best come the 2015-16 season.

At Glacier Falls, we got our first peek at several top ladies. Gracie won in a practically miraculous outing unlike anything she'd ever done that early in the season; Courtney Hicks finished a solid 2nd with two mostly-clean programs and a triple axel attempt; Polina had an amazing short program far that showed maturity and poise that was far and away better than last year's programs but singled all but one jump in the free to fall to 4th; and Mariah Bell was the surprise bronze medalist with an excellent free skate that included a landed (though not clean) 3F-3T (her first ever). And though we haven't seen Ashley yet (we won't until Japan Open in early October), I think we've seen enough of the other ladies to start predicting the pecking order.

I apologize for my long-windedness, but who do you think will be the top American lady this season? Will it be Ashley, Gracie, or somebody else-perhaps a surprising dark horse will rise in the rankings a la Polina in 2014?

I look forward to seeing what you think!

I think Gracie, Ashley, Karen, Mirai, and Polina will be the top 5, but I'm not sure which order...

Ashley, but I hope Gracie.

May I suggest we do what the people are doing in the Chan vs. Hanyu and Liza Vs. Mao threads? (The jumps-spins-footwork/SS-choreo & interpretation-mental toughness system.) This is what I'd say about that:

Jumps: Gracie, no question. The best 3Lz-3T in the field, and arguably the best solo 3Lz...she lips, but her other jumps are good enough when they're on to make up for it.
Spins: Gracie again. Probably the best non-Russian spinner aside from possibly Mao and Karen Chen. Her spins are fast, centered, nice positions, pretty good flexibility-and kind of underrated!
Footwork/SS: I'd probably give this to Gracie as well. She's got very good SS and has a nice fluidity to her footwork.
Choreo/Interp.: Ashley. Even I have to admit Gracie isn't the most artistic skater; Ashley's greater ability to emote and feel her music won her this category.
Mental toughness: ugh ugh ugh, this is a terrible weakness among the American ladies! Both could reasonably be called headcases; Gracie headcases more often, but Ashley's meltdowns are arguably some of the worst in the field (when she's off, you get things like 2014 Nationals and the SP at worlds). Neither is consistent, but I'm going to have to give this to Ashley-lack of quantity beats lack of quality here.

Tally:

Gracie: 3
Ashley: 2

So it's really anyone's game, especially because we've already seen Gracie but not Ashley this season.

I don't think top 3 will change this season. Ashley, Gracie and Polina will go to worlds and if all ladies go clean Gracie will be on top. I wanna say Karen is the dark horse but she still lacks senior experience and her form wasn't that impressive last I saw of her.

sses1 said:

I don't think top 3 will change this season. Ashley, Gracie and Polina will go to worlds and if all ladies go clean Gracie will be on top. I wanna say Karen is the dark horse but she still lacks senior experience and her form wasn't that impressive last I saw of her.

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Well, she's got the best spins in the US field, and huge jumps for her height. She's just got what I call "Acute Premature Headcaseitis."

Layback11 said:

Spins: Gracie again. Probably the best non-Russian spinner aside from possibly Mao and Karen Chen. Her spins are fast, centered, nice positions, pretty good flexibility-and kind of underrated!

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I would say that Gracie has some of the best spins beside Julia, Karen, Mao, and Mirai (who probably has one of the best layback spins of all time)

samm22 said:

I would say that Gracie has some of the best spins beside Julia, Karen, Mao, and Mirai (who probably has one of the best layback spins of all time)

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Yup, definitely. Sasha Cohen had great spins, too.

This is a really hard question. If I had to choose one Lady to put my money on......It would be Gracie. I really like all the top US Ladies but, I had to send one skater to Worlds. It would be Gracie. Fortunately, that won't be the case. I'd like to see the same group from last year. Gracie, Ashley and Polina.

I think Ashley and Gracie will be on the National podium and World team. Polina does not necessarily have that third spot locked. Karen Chen beat her at Nationals and the only reason Polina made it to the World team was likely because Karen was too young to go. It would actually not surprise me to see Karen in that third spot.

It's so conflicting...if I could control Nationals results I would send Gracie, Karen, and one of Mariah, Mirai or Courtney to Worlds, but I don't think any of those combinations would get us the three spots back. So...better stick with Ashley and Polina. I did the math, and any combination of Gracie, Ashley and Polina's placements would've gotten the three spots-it's just smarter to stick with that team until one of them retires or splats horrifically at Nationals.

Layback11 said:

Well, she's got the best spins in the US field, and huge jumps for her height. She's just got what I call "Acute Premature Headcaseitis."

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Exactly, and that's why I think Karen would benefit from more senior experience to develop her skating and confidence. She can have Ashley's spot in 2 years

Jumps Gracie
Skating skills Gracie
Spins Gracie
Performance Ashley.

I am not a fan of Gracie, her skating does not move me the way Mao or Satoko does, but when compared to Ashley Gracie is the most complete skater. Technically solid, very good skating skills. She may not be the most musical skater now, but she can improve. However, Ashley has probably maximized her talent.

i think polina may surprise us... huge potential, still gaining maturity... i don't think that gracie and ashley will get much better than they already are... and it seems like it's not good enough...

Whichever one's most motivated by having Worlds at home.

I'll go with Ashley. I am impressed that she continues to try to improve the difficulty in her programs at her age. As someone else said, she is the best American as far as performing a program and I always find myself interested in watching what she does on the ice. It's disappointing that, as good as her overall skating is, Gracie's performance ability has not improved at all. I expect Polina to pass her as the second best American.

Before I decide Whether Gracie or Ashley goes first, are there any video of Ashely's new programs? Was she in any of the summer competitions at all?

I agree that Gracie is an excellent spinner but her flexibility is not good at all. She cannot do an I spin and her biellmann spin does not look so great. But the extreme centerness of her spins make them more enjoyable than Karen's, who is much more flexible.

Layback11 said:

May I suggest we do what the people are doing in the Chan vs. Hanyu and Liza Vs. Mao threads? (The jumps-spins-footwork/SS-choreo & interpretation-mental toughness system.) This is what I'd say about that:

Jumps: Gracie, no question. The best 3Lz-3T in the field, and arguably the best solo 3Lz...she lips, but her other jumps are good enough when they're on to make up for it.
Spins: Gracie again. Probably the best non-Russian spinner aside from possibly Mao and Karen Chen. Her spins are fast, centered, nice positions, pretty good flexibility-and kind of underrated!
Footwork/SS: I'd probably give this to Gracie as well. She's got very good SS and has a nice fluidity to her footwork.
Choreo/Interp.: Ashley. Even I have to admit Gracie isn't the most artistic skater; Ashley's greater ability to emote and feel her music won her this category.
Mental toughness: ugh ugh ugh, this is a terrible weakness among the American ladies! Both could reasonably be called headcases; Gracie headcases more often, but Ashley's meltdowns are arguably some of the worst in the field (when she's off, you get things like 2014 Nationals and the SP at worlds). Neither is consistent, but I'm going to have to give this to Ashley-lack of quantity beats lack of quality here.

Tally:

Gracie: 3
Ashley: 2

So it's really anyone's game, especially because we've already seen Gracie but not Ashley this season.

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Whenever people start talking about how old Ashley is I feel like I should be breaking out a walker, lol, nothing makes you feel ancient like figure skating.

Humor aside, while I do prefer Ashley's skating I believe that Gracie is the more complete skater. If Gracie could keep it together and deliver like she is capable she would be #1. Which is what is so frustrating about watching her.

I remember one of the non-annoying things Sandra Bezic said in the Sochi commentary was during Yuna's short program, she basically said it showed what a competitor Yuna was for having had such a frustrating and bad warm up and then skating like it had never happened. If Gracie can learn to do this, to really have the mindset of a competitor, I don't think any US lady can currently beat her. If she can't, it's anyone's game.

As much as I like Ashley I think it will be between Gracie and Polina this season and Gracie won't be able to hold it together. So it's Polina.