State of U.S. Dance 2015-2016

Starting this thread because the U.S. Int'l Classic thread was starting to get some discussion on this:

tulosai said:

Like everyone else is saying, after this competition I view Hubbell and Donohue as being in a really tough position. They really HAVE to make a push this year if they want to be viewed as a top US team, and while I wouldn't say it is definitely doom yet, this was not a good way to start the push. Based on last year, I expect Hawayek and Baker to slip comfortably into the number 2 spot this year for US teams, leading the Shibs and H/D to battle it out yet again for third, and H/D don't have a good track record in that battle. As others have already said, next year the battle for third is just going to get bigger as promising junior teams come up to seniors. Thomas and Eton also don't suck for a brand new team, especially considering the fact that she has NO prior senior experience. By the Oly year they could be challenging for third too. At the moment C/B is probably the only truly safe team, and H/D are not making a convincing case for themselves.

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tulosai said:

Yes but the Shibs have been more or less stagnant for years too, just a bit ahead of H/D, with the one obvious exception of a more-or-less fluke world medal from which they've regressed. H/B on the other hand are on a clear upward trajectory.

This is just my prediction/how I see it. I could be wrong and don't really care if I'm wrong- I like all 3 teams fine, and in fact have been a big fan of H/D and their programs for years, but at the end of this season I'm predicting the rankings are going to be:

1. C/B -rather large gap-
2. H/B -smaller but still clear gap-
3. Shibs -tiny gap-
4. H/D

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Mrs. P said:

The Shibs did fine last season. Their SD was solid, they beat nearly every team at some point and practically tied Chock and Bates at nationals with it. They broke the 100 point barrier several times, something they hadn't done previously. Plus a top 5 finish is nothing to sneeze at.

I think last season really renewed the Shibs. Consider that at the end of the Olympic season they wouldn't commit to another Olympics. By the post-Nationals press conference they were saying they would keep going through 2018. They seem really hungry in a way I hadn't seen them in the past. They picked out programs early, been actively working with different folks and even exploring new looks for themselves.

I think Hawayek and Baker are very talented, but the thing I notice with them is they are prone to make silly errors. They can't do that if they are want to pass any team.

All that said it's going to be interesting to see what happens!

Eta: FWIW, when the Shibs were truly struggling a few years back, many thought they would be surpassed by several teams by now, including some that are no longer together. So the unpredictability of ice dance. Hence my reluctance to many declative statements.

Also to make thing relevant: it's early in the season and Hubbell/Donqhue still have time to make adjustments and improve. They seem hungry to keep their place as well.

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slider11 said:

I am hopeful that the Shibs will make their move for a significant gain this year. I don't see that Chock and Bates have the technical ability on the Shibs but the Shibs need a vehicle where they can put forward their artistry. And the US judges may be more inclined to keep C/B in first but it is in the world arena where they Shibs may have the chance to edge up. Regardless, and as much as I am a Hawayek/Baker fan, I think the order in the US will be :1. Chock/Bates 2. Shibs-second but gaining ground on C/B 3. Hawayek/Baker 4. Hubbell/Donahue

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tulosai said:

I disagree about the Shibs having a technical edge at this point. If anything the teams are equal; if you take the whole of last season, not just the last few competitions, a strong argument could be made that C/B are ahead. Either way. C/B consistently got level 4's last year. At 4CC's,in the SP, the Shibs did achieve one more level 4 than C/B (on one of the step sequences); otherwise their levels were identical. In the FD, C/B actually got 5 level 4's, while the Shibs only got 4.

At World's, C/B got ALL level 4's in the SD. The Shibs got 2 level 3's. In the Free, C/B got 4 level 4's and 3 level 3's. The Shibs got 4 level 4's, 2 level 3's, and a level 2.

I actually sincerely think the best thing the Shibs could do for themselves (and this could be a real difference maker) is to start getting more level 4's. We all know they CAN do it, because they did in the past, when both Marina and Igor were working with them. They need to find a tech coach that can actually help them do this. I believe if they did this, their placements at competitions would indeed go up. I do think they actually have the POTENTIAL to be better than C/B technically, but at the moment, the reality is just not showing that.

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Continuing from what tulosai posted, RE Shibs TES:

2013-2014:
Skate America: 30.30; 47.00
NHK Trophy: 31.93; 46.68
Olympics: 33.96; 43.42
Worlds: 32.00 ;48.08
Average: 32.05; 46.30

2014-2015
Skate America: 31.59; 46.24
Cup of China: 32.88; 43.02
Grand Prix Final: 30.56; 45.16
4CC: 35.85;49.16
Worlds: 35.26; 50.16
Average: 33.23; 46.75

They had started out struggling with levels in the first half, but got control of it in the second half of the season.

I don't think the progress with K/C would have any less for H/D. Their programs this season don't seem that much better than what they had last season. Anyways hopefully I'll be proven wrong but my guess is this;
1. C/B
2. S/S
3. H/B
4. H/D

I think that the Shibs struggle over the past 4 years has been the disconnect with their music and performance. That's on Marina. I think their technical levels will be solid 4s when they can connect with the right music. They showed that last year with their SD. I am anxious to see their SD and FD this year. It seems they've been given more leeway with choosing music and working with other choreographers.

The Shibutanis defeated everyone in the short last season except Chock & Bates. (And any athletes who didn't make it to Worlds). They had higher levels at Worlds in their SD than Papadakis & Cizeron and higher levels than Chock & Bates at Four Continents. This wasn't true with the waltz. The potential is there. I think Maia & Alex need a great free dance.

Thanks, Ice Dance. You're hitting on the reasons why Maia and Alex can succeed over Chock and Bates and other top teams. They have it in them. It's just a matter of the right vehicle and the hard work. The work ethic seems to be there a la Davis and White. It's the vehicle that can help them overcome the limitations that siblings have as ice dance couples and the right one to make them "sing". I know this could be said for a few couples but I do believe this is a US team that has been in the shadows too long.

Ice Dance said:

The Shibutanis defeated everyone in the short last season except Chock & Bates. (And any athletes who didn't make it to Worlds). They had higher levels at Worlds in their SD than Papadakis & Cizeron and higher levels than Chock & Bates at Four Continents. This wasn't true with the waltz. The potential is there. I think Maia & Alex need a great free dance.

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shibs are my preferred us team...and by far. i don't think they are going to get below 2nd... and i hope they get 1st

4everchan said:

Shibs are my preferred US team...and by far. I don't think they are going to get below 2nd...and I hope they get 1st.

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So do I. As a self-proclaimed Shibs uber, I'm seriously hoping they dethrone C/B and medal at worlds. But I am also a self-proclaimed H/B uber, so I want them to succeed as well. I think they would probably get on the world team over H/D if both teams skated clean at Nationals, but...who knows?

I'm still pretty sure the Shibs are a lock for Worlds and could potentially place in the top 5 there, and C/B are a definite lock (barring disaster).

Let the games begin!

thanks to you i want popcorn now lol

Layback11 said:

So do I. As a self-proclaimed Shibs uber, I'm seriously hoping they dethrone C/B and medal at worlds. But I am also a self-proclaimed H/B uber, so I want them to succeed as well. I think they would probably get on the world team over H/D if both teams skated clean at Nationals, but...who knows?

I'm still pretty sure the Shibs are a lock for Worlds and could potentially place in the top 5 there, and C/B are a definite lock (barring disaster).

Let the games begin!

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I think Hawayek and Baker are very talented, but the thing I notice with them is they are prone to make silly errors. They can't do that if they are want to pass any team.

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I remember Kaitlin falling on a twizzle at Nebelhorn, and I remember Jean-Luc having a stumble out of either a twizzle or a turn in a step-sequence at NHK, but those are the only major visible errors I recall them making last season. That's not any worse than any of our top teams did, i.e. Chock and Bates had two big falls, and they botched their twizzles at Worlds. And while the Shibs did improve their technical scores last season, at Worlds they made a visible error in one of their paso patterns and lost a level even though they'd done all the key points correctly and finished 6th in the SD. Then in the FD they got a Level 2 lift and finished with a lower technical score than Canada's Gilles and Poirier. So I've never really considered H/B any more prone to silly mistakes at this point than any of the other top US teams. I feel like they just need to up their technical proficiency which to a certain extent is due to their newness as seniors and possibly also to the level problems DSC teams in general had last season; H/D, P/I, and W/P all dropped more levels than they should have IMO.

Anyway, my feeling about this season having not seen any of the programs (besides H/D's) is that Chock/Bates are potentially vulnerable to the Shibutanis, and H/D are very likely vulnerable to H/B. My reasoning is that Chock and Bates have shown themselves to be unpredictable with major errors at their two most important (and high-pressure) competitions -- GPF and Worlds. Chock and Bates also seemed to have gotten off to a bit of a late start, with a scrapped SD and possibly also a scrapped FD (or at least some scrapped FD choreography). The Shibutanis, on the other hand, decided what they were doing early on. They just finished a waltz FD last season which I think will help them with their waltz SD. They are trying to recreate their much-loved Coldplay ex for their FD, which is smart. I think if the Shibs can put the errors behind them and go toe to toe with Chock and Bates on levels (in steps and key points) that we could see a much closer battle for #1 in the US this season.

Re: H/D vs. H/B... last season H/B received a lot of Level 1s and 2s last season. I don't think that's going to happen for much longer. They are very talented and hold the SD world record in Juniors. They were already getting a little too close for comfort to H/D, and I think that's part of why H/D left DSC and moved to Montreal. I kind of feel like it's just a matter of time...

slider11 said:

Thanks, Ice Dance. You're hitting on the reasons why Maia and Alex can succeed over Chock and Bates and other top teams. They have it in them. It's just a matter of the right vehicle and the hard work. The work ethic seems to be there a la Davis and White. It's the vehicle that can help them overcome the limitations that siblings have as ice dance couples and the right one to make them "sing". I know this could be said for a few couples but I do believe this is a US team that has been in the shadows too long.

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Agreed. My understanding is that the Shibs' free dance is an entirely different track rather than a re-creation of the exhibition. What I would really love to see are some great original elements, combined with the exquisite execution and spark that make Maia & Alex so special.

Ice Dance said:

The Shibutanis defeated everyone in the short last season except Chock & Bates. (And any athletes who didn't make it to Worlds). They had higher levels at Worlds in their SD than Papadakis & Cizeron and higher levels than Chock & Bates at Four Continents. This wasn't true with the waltz. The potential is there. I think Maia & Alex need a great free dance.

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Bingo. And sorry but I think P/C's Paso was grossly overscored throughout the year. The FD was a marvel; the SD was good.

I wouldn't count the Shibs out for the reasons Mrs P and Ice Dance have already stated. They've had lousy, unimaginative programs the past few years. Give them a challenging quality program like their Paso, and they rise to the occasion. Not once, but throughout the season. The exhibition program last year was a breakthrough because I think it showed them how they can finally transcend the brother/sister dilemma once and for all. The Duschenays did it by going avant garde. The Kerrs did it by going dance techno. The Shibs can do it by going arty and abstract.

H/D have 'nice' programs this year. That's sorta the problem for me with the Montreal School of Mush. Almost all of the programs are very pretty and pretty boring. Just my opinion. Their SD would make a lovely exhibition piece. But they're damn lucky they are not being called out on the timing issue. And they have always had technical bobbles, even when Madison was fully healthy a few years ago. Don't get me wrong. I like them. I 'like' the programs (the moth wing costume on the other hand has got to go--it's so early 90s). But it seems like mush is what is on the menu right now. The Shibs look like they are taking the smart route by NOT going all soft focus. I don't see H/D moving up this year. I see them struggling to hold on to that 3rd position.

Until we actually see H/B's programs, it is difficult to say where they will place. People forget just how new a team they are. Go back and watch their first year together. I was like, oh no is Hawayek ever going to learn to twizzle? Their progress is really astounding. But. And there is at least one big but. Baker is such a natural talent, but he has a weakness: Latin dances. And I don't know if they can get away with another sweetly romantic program three years running. They really need to show some range this year. But I would be VERY curious to see what is going on at DSC, with two major teams defecting. Look at what Igor did under similar circumstances with C/B. Never underestimate the motivating factor of revenge.

Same with Chock and Bates. Gotta see the programs. I'm not thrilled with the music choices. They're safe and recycled. Not a good sign. Scraping programs looks bad, but then sometimes a no can be a yes: it can lead you to finding something much better. Again, until we SEE the programs, hard to tell.

And that isn't even counting second tier teams. We really do have an embarrassment of riches in dance right now. Which just means this is going to be not only an interesting season--but an IMPORTANT one.

WeakAnkles said:

Same with Chock and Bates. Gotta see the programs. I'm not thrilled with the music choices. They're safe and recycled. Not a good sign. Scraping programs looks bad, but then sometimes a no can be a yes: it can lead you to finding something much better. Again, until we SEE the programs, hard to tell.

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C/B's music choice is edgy and controversial. Rachmaninoff's Piano Concerto No. 2 doesn't have the beat and rhythm typically expected for a FD so "the music [according to Igor] has been adapted to suit the program and does not follow the pattern of the piece." It's not going to be a recycled program: Evan said "the movement we are doing to it is new for us." The only thing that would be a bit predictable is their SD to 'Dark Eyes' because it was waltzed to many times in the past (2006 and prior). I am particularly interested in their FD, not just because of their music choice but of their approach. Well, we we'll see their dances the week of Sept 24 _ Nebelhorn Trophy competition.

I'm really hoping the C/B's programs are more engaging this year. Their technical skating is good but I have yet to see a truly outstanding, memorable program from them, hopefully Rach 2 will be special. H/B have a really good shot this season of "breaking out", thats assuming Camerlengo/Krylova can give them the guidance they need. H/D have improved some under their new coaches but they have an awful LP and keep throwing away points on their lifts. I don't even know what they're thinking with their choices. The SHIBS will probably remain in 2nd for this year but I have a feeling that H/B will we right on their heels.

WeakAnkles said:

Montreal School of Mush. Almost all of the programs are very pretty and pretty boring. Just my opinion.

But I would be VERY curious to see what is going on at DSC, with two major teams defecting.

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I am in complete & total agreement about the programs coming out of Montreal. Not surprised--because these were the kind of programs that Dubreil & Lauzon always skated well. But disappointed--because Hurtado & Diaz and the Danes had great fiery choreo in their SD's last season so I thought there was hope that D&L's coaching style might be more versatile.


As for your second comment, I'm assuming you mean Krylova & Camerlengo's camp and I don't think there's any mystery to it at all. P&I and H&D both dropped in the standings last season. P&I finished three spots lower than their Worlds finish the previous season, and H&D finished four spots below the team they defeated at last year's Four Continents. And who got all the hype? Hawayek & Baker--finishing right on H&D's tail at Nationals. And training at the same rink. That's what happened. Combine that with even more hype related to Montreal, and here we are.

Weaver & Poje are at the top in Krylova & Camerlengo's rink. C&B are at the top in Shpilband's. He hasn't had a lot of success holding onto senior teams beyond this team either. This always happens. Every time a new top coach comes on the scene, everyone flocks there. The coaches are immediately overwhelmed. The athletes start looking the same. Some of them don't progress. And the cycle begins again. (Last season it was Marina. The season before it was Shpilband. I remember when it was Morozov). "As the Ice Dance World Turns."

Astrid56 said:

C/B's music choice is edgy and controversial. Rachmaninoff's Piano Concerto No. 2 doesn't have the beat and rhythm typically expected for a FD so "the music [according to Igor] has been adapted to suit the program and does not follow the pattern of the piece." It's not going to be a recycled program: Evan said "the movement we are doing to it is new for us." The only thing that would be a bit predictable is their SD to 'Dark Eyes' because it was waltzed to many times in the past (2006 and prior). I am particularly interested in their FD, not just because of their music choice but of their approach. Well, we we'll see their dances the week of Sept 24 _ Nebelhorn Trophy competition.

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Igor choreographed a FD using the Rach 2 for Tobias and Stagniūnas during the 2012-2013 season. It's recycled.

And Najarro choreographed C/B's Rach 2. Having not seen it yet, maybe Igor was typical Igor, but I'm willing to remain optimistic.

Actually, it sadly seems the choreo will be Igor's. From their IN article:

The skaters announced via their new joint Twitter account, @chockbates, that they will perform their free dance to Rachmaninoff's "Piano Concerto No. 2." Shpilband added that the music has been adapted to suit the program and does not follow the pattern of the piece.

While choreography is overseen by Shpilband, the skaters also worked with Antonio Najarro, the Spanish dancer... Veronique Breen, a former ballet dancer and off-ice conditioning specialist, is also an important contributor.

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Then a Russian journalist said that they had problems with Najarro's choreo and "Igor did the new job" according to a Russian fan. I don't think we're even clear yet if Rach 2 was what Najarro worked on or if they scrapped that program for it or what.

oh lord... rach 2 for a fd.... and of course, the music will not follow the actual piece... i will have nightmares

Igor does not do the most interesting programs but if he changed the program it probably was necessary, the man know to get points. But it is a shame because Frida and almost every program of Najarro are beautiful.