This and That: NHK Trophy

http://youtu.be/fy--zRvllXw

Our recap of the NHK Trophy


Does Ashley need to be the underdog?

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?

Should Duhamel and Radford ditch the quad lutz?

Can the Shibutanis upset Chock and Bates at the Final?

TSLDave said:

http://youtu.be/fy--zRvllXw

Our recap of the NHK Trophy


Does Ashley need to be the underdog?

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?

Should Duhamel and Radford ditch the quad lutz?

Can the Shibutanis upset Chock and Bates at the Final?

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1. No, she just have to bring it 1000% in every event.

2. If both bring their best, Gracie way over Ashley. But I see the Russians and Mao ahead.

3. Yes, but in which competition, GPF, National, or World?

4. Yes, for now.

5. I hope so.

Does Ashley need to be the underdog?
I feel like that is where she is most successful. When she feels like she has something to prove she performs best. I have a feeling that Gracie will win back her National title with her performance so far this season so I'm wondering if that does happen, will Ashley attack worlds with a vengeance?

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?
I think Gracie has better chances to podium than Ashley for sure. It will depend on how the Russians and Mao perform. Ashley I'm not so sure about podium, she would need some others to trip up to get on the podium. I love Ashley the most but it seems unlikely.

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?
Yes! I can't wait to see how this spurs Patrick to perform as well. It will be exciting to see them in the final together. I wonder if Patrick is serious about getting more tech content or moving his quads into the second half because it is clear both are capable of getting 10's for PCS in their sleep.

Should Duhamel and Radford ditch the quad lutz?
Nah, Meagan is a little machine and I feel like she doesn't give up when something gives her challenge. She'll continue to push through. Watching her makes me feel like she lives off the thrill of doing tough elements so she won't stop trying and I can't wait for the day they succeed. I think D/R love both their programs. Usually I'm indifferent to their music however I find Your Song quite adorable, the dip at the end is just so cute. I think Hometown Glory is also a good angle for them.

Can the Shibutanis upset Chock and Bates at the Final?

Yes I really hope they will and win Nationals. C/B are not very exciting for me, Shibutanis have a wow factor to their free skate this year and I can't wait to see them compete at the GPF and Nationals.

1. She just needs to have a mentality of "I can be at the top" without the nerves getting to her. With Mao at NHK, she was not a "favorite" for the gold and she still struggled.
2. I see Gracie ahead unless she headcases, but that could mean being 5th and 6th since Evgenia and Satoko have been very consistent. And if Elena and Mao skate anywhere close to what they're capable of, they can finish ahead of them, too. I think Gracie still has better chances than Ashley (sorry Ashley)
3. I hope so, I really do. I think he can, this performance will motivate him because he now knows he can have two clean skates in one competition. Hopefully at GPF or, even better, Worlds. At Nationals he doesn't really need it, he just needs to be cleanish.
4. No. They will most likely win with or without it IF they don't compete against Tatiana and Maxim. They can use these opportunities to try and get it our there and perhaps have it more consistent by the time Worlds come around and they have to face V/T.
5. I really hope they can, they have the programs to do it this year (I actually really liked their SD), and C/B are not looking as unstoppable. But I agree, their GPF placement is VITAL. They need to finish ahead of Madison and Evan at Barcelona if they want to have any chance of winning Nationals.

Does Ashley need to be the underdog?

I think she needs to keep that fire she had during SC. Her skating has improved, but I feel that she needs Gracie or one of the Russian "girls" to push her.

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?

If both perform their best, definitely Gracie. Gracie's jumps are simply better.

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?

Absolutely! I think his quads are rock solid, and with the removal of the lutz in the short he should be able to hit it every time now. Plus, we have Boyang to unleash the beast inside him, so...

Should Duhamel and Radford ditch the quad lutz?

Definitely. The only time I saw them land it in competition is when she lands it on her bum. It's simply not ready, and they don't need it. And they didn't attempted it many times in competition either as their quad sal is inconsistent this season. They should worry about getting the quad sal consistent as of right now. What's interesting is that they aren't trying to increase their scoring potential on the one area where most if not all pairs falter - SBS jumps. Since Meagan is godly at single jumps if they want to up the tech they should try to do so by widening the gap in the SBS jumps - like do a 3-3 or a triple loop/flip. I know she definitely landed the loop and a 3F-2T-2T combination before. Quad throws simply aren't awarded enough, so they should stop risking it.

Can the Shibutanis upset Chock and Bates at the Final?

Heart wants me to say yes, but brain tells me unlikely due to reputation/politics. I think the Shibs have one of the best free dances this season, so it should all come down to who can perform, grab the audience, and get all the levels that day.

TSLDave said:

http://youtu.be/fy--zRvllXw

Does Ashley need to be the underdog?
It sure seems that way. Whenever she comes into a competition as the favorite or one of the favorites, she doesn't seem to skate as well as when she is an underdog.

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?
If they're on the same level or pretty close, I think Gracie has a better shot at coming out on top. Ashley needs help to finish ahead of Gracie.

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?
Not only can he do it, but he can do better. Don't forget, his quad salchow in the short program wasn't the best. The question is, will he? I could imagine him skating well, but maybe not quite this well – this felt like one of THOSE moments that remind me why I love skating.

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I haven't gotten to see the pairs or dance yet, so I don't feel qualified to comment on them.

On the men, I think we're past the point of talking about the quad in relation to the U.S. men. While we hear people talking about whether American men's skaters can or cannot do "the quad," the best skaters in the world have progressed to 4-5 quads per competition and are doing quad lutzes in combination.

Does Ashley need to be the underdog?
No, she is only inconsistent like the most of skaters

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?
I hope Gracie get medal

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?
Very difficult but I hope in worlds

Should Duhamel and Radford ditch the quad lutz?
No

Can the Shibutanis upset Chock and Bates at the Final?
YEEESSSSS!!!

Does Ashley need to be the underdog?

She does seem to do best in that position, but she's risen to the occasion with pressure as well. So no, but it helps.

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?

Gracie: a medal of some color; Ashley: anywhere from third to last

Can Hanyu replicate this performance this season?

Maybe? There's a lot of pressure on him now that he's broken 300 to do it again; whether or not he'll crack under it is unsure.

Should D/R ditch the 4LzTh?

In competition? Yes, they don't need it. But I'd say they should keep working on it because it's a great thing to have and it's good to push yourself beyond what you legitimately need to do.

Can the Shibs upset C/B at Nationals?

HECK YEAH! Can and will!

Hanyu doesn't even need to replicate it...if he can just do 90% of that and get a solid 300 Points :eeking: I'll be a happy camper!

Does Ashley need to be the underdog?
I don't think she needs to be the underdog, but I do think it helps her a lot.

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?
I can see either of them on the podium depending on how they (and others) skate. I think it's unlikely to see both of them on the podium though. Skating clean, I do think Mao, Elena, and even Evgenia would score higher than either of them and for both of them to make the podium, I think two of the aforementioned three would have to not do well while both of Ashley and Gracie knock it out of the ball park... which I think is unlikely.

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?
Not sure about this season- this was the first time he's been clean in the sp + fs in five years.
I do have a feeling that he's going to bomb one of his programs in the GPF though, because that's what's tended to happen when he's had gigantic "moments" in the past (bombed the free after his first WR in SA 2012, his Olympics free after his WR short...).
I hope to be proven wrong, however.

Should Duhamel and Radford ditch the quad lutz?
I think they should start calling it a quad flip.

Can the Shibutanis upset Chock and Bates at the Final?
I so so so hope they can because I prefer the Shibs 100%, but since the judges seem to be in love with Chock and Bates... :noshake:

Interspectator said:

Hanyu doesn't even need to replicate it...if he can just do 90% of that and get a solid 300 Points :eeking: I'll be a happy camper!

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I actually think it will be easier for him to break the 300 barrier now even if he's not perfect. Just a clean SP and a cleanish FS. He had been close the past few seasons but he would never get a WR with a flawed performance. But now, even with high TES and PCS, if he makes a mistake, the WR threshold is higher, so the judges may not hold back and let him break 300 because it's not a WR anymore. Just let him have another mighty high score. There's 6 points between 100 and the record in SP, 16 for the FS, I guess there's room to be between those numbers

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?

If he stays calm he has the talent and is in shape right now to do that.

Should Duhamel and Radford ditch the quad lutz?
They are not doing it anyway so

Can the Shibutanis upset Chock and Bates at the Final?

Yes I really hope they will and win Nationals. C/B are not very exciting for me, Shibutanis have a wow factor to their free skate this year and I can't wait to see them compete at the GPF and Nationals.[/QUOTE]

C/B will win .They have more wow factor to me than S/S
S/S have great FD this season but still skate small to me .Madison is fabulous

Does Ashley need to be the underdog?
She was the underdog here and she didn't perform well. I guess it set her mind in the right way but it doesnt always work.

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?
4th and 6th, hopefully.

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?
He can indeed. Hard to tell when but he will. Hope to see that again this season. Just not in Barcelona, thanks.

Can the Shibutanis upset Chock and Bates at the Final?
I can see that happening if they go clean and C/B make at least one mistake. Not sure if both go clean bul I'll be pulling for S/S.

Florencito said:

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?
He can indeed. Hard to tell when but he will. Hope to see that again this season. Just not in Barcelona, thanks.

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:rofl2: Oh, I am sure he wants especially in Barcelona, as he can make there history again if I think correctly. First one to win 3 straight GPF ? I think no one has done that so far

Does Ashley need to be the underdog?

She should simply deliver and not taking herself in top positions for granted. Work, work and more work on technique and if she wants to retain once again GPF podium she has to deliver AND somehow upgrade her tech content in FS. Will be veeery interesting to see Medvedeva beating all of folks if she delivers technically...

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?

Depends on who will deliver and what - but if two of them will be on top shape, my money goes on Gracie.

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?

don't want to jinx but yes - I think it is possible indeed - if he stays healthy, determined and motivated (last two are obvious for me looking at his immaculate work ethic, strict regime of training, competitive environment and seamless cooperation with team). At NHK he probably exceeded everybody's expectations (including even his) and now he'll be hungry for proving himself and do even more. Really excited about what will come with each of his next outing...

Should Duhamel and Radford ditch the quad lutz?

If they want to be in Worlds podium (for me no chance in regaining no#1, it is already reserved though), they should ditch it now and concentrate more on 4Sal consistency and whole gelling both programs. The FS is a big meh for me - after last year's Muse medley which did great things to showcase their strenghts and hide weaknesses, Adele does not them any favors - this is that purity of music which requires a perfection in movement and this is not there unfortunately...

Can the Shibutanis upset Chock and Bates at the Final?

Oh yeah - this will be my delight in GPF for sure if happens.

And looking at scoring tendency it is very possible - Shibutanis certainly are going up while Chock/Bates after losing to Cappellini/Lanotte in CoC are a bit of question mark for me right now. They have worse programs than Shibutanis for sure but they still might take over them technically and go above byt his margin. Counting on this to happen - a podium with Weaver/oje, Shibutanis and Bobrova/Soloviev(!!!) in any configuation will be a massive delight for me

Ashley - This is her cross roads. She has milked the come-from-behind kid as far as it will go. She needs a different motivation. When she comes to the arena knowing she is as good as Tuk, Rado, etc. she will take her career to another level. If she can do that in the next few months she could podium at Worlds. These are tough things to change and it may take more time

Shibutanis - I love them. I think they are the best US team. Alex is a fully adult man now and needs to demonstete that on the ice. He reads a little young for a champion. Also, for the short they need to watch a good performance of Tales of Hoffman - ballet or opera. This only works if portrayed as a doll within the woman. She is wise and powerful. The doll's teasing and coquesttishness (sp?, word?) is there for HER purpose. Without the complexity the puppet trick wears out in about 15 seconds, IMO.

Does Ashley need to be the underdog?

She does way better in that position, and she needs to change that. Something that goes for a lot of skaters though.

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?

Probably divisive comment: people complained to the moon at back how the russians were "set up" for Sochi - and I think exactly that is happening with the american ladies for worlds in Boston. Garcie's lip is being ignored, and Ashley just beat Mao Asada in PCS in Japan (in the SP only, but still). So I expect both of them to get big scores if they halfway deliver. But all of Mao, Evgenia and Elena have more rep. And out of those 6 ladies, I trust Evgenia, Satoko and Elena to fight and skate well. Mao took herself out of the gold medal favorite discussion with her latest outings, but she was sick at NHK and if she comes back in JO form, the gold is hers (and as a side note: no, Mao doesn't need to give Ashley face. Ashley face works for Ash, but Mao is Mao. No Ashley face for Mao :noshake: ). It's just really hard to predict. I'd think Gracie gets silver or bronze and Ashley will be 4th or 5th (or might even be 6th if the other 5 ladies deliver), but who knows.

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?

Oh, a loooooooong time ago (well, 2012, but it feels soooooo long ago ) I naively said Yuzurus focus, determination and competitive drive might make him a rather consistent skater once he really reaches the top and gets used to the thought. And while I'm not as confident about this as I was back than... actually, he might? When he was healthy and prepared and in the right mind set in 2013-14, he gave us 5 clean SPs in a row at least. Now that he has grown more mentally, nothing seems impossible anymore. It depends on what is going on in is mind (and Orser is a GREAT coach to help his skaters deal with big pressure, IMO). How is he going to get into the GPF? Is he the one to defend? He's the 2-time reigning GPF champ, he just shattered the world records. But the last time he went up against Javi and Pat respectively, he lost. Is he the one chasing equipped with the clear knowledge he can beat them and he can deliver? Or is he the one defending with the knowledge in the back of his mind in his last confrontation with these guys he failed?
But additionally, so far Yuzuru followed up good competitions with good competition, some mistakes none withstanding. After first time beating well-skating Pat at GPF 2013, he gave us a WR SP at the Olys. After becoming Oly champ, he gave a good performance at worlds (yes, fall in the SP and some rough landings in the LP, but that was still a really good competition overall). Both times after delivering at the GPF he kept it together to pretty much repeat his performances at nationals (well, some different mistakes, but the same "level"). I actually expect him to be really good at the GPF. Not NHK perfect, but really good.

Should Duhamel and Radford ditch the quad lutz?

Not if they don't want too.

Can the Shibutanis upset Chock and Bates at the Final?

If they manage to deliver that gorgeous, GORGEOUS FD again than I hope they'll be marked accordingly and get the medal they deserve. I do not want them to upset C/B just because, or because I don't like C/B or whatever. But I believe they have it in them to be the outstanding team of the season, and I just hope they stay on track and get rewarded fairly. They have been long time sentimental favorites of mine, so for now I'm happy enough with all the praise and attention they're getting (and the PBs, don't forget the PBs! ).


Also, I'm sorry, but 2 major problems I had with that podcast:

1.) How are Hanyus and Jins LPs similar? IMO, they are completely different in style, atmosphere and concept. Jins as adventurous and joyous, while Hanyus is mystical and haunting. I agree about the point about Jins need to work on his PCS (which he said he will do), but by no means are their LPs that similar at all.

2.) No, grinning and laughing about Anna's SP falls, that were definitely painful, really isn't cool. It's not okay just because you say yourself "oh, that might make me sound like a b*tch". For people who are out there on the ice - and especially Jenny who competed herself - I really expected better then to make fun of her.

HanDomi said:

:rofl2: Oh, I am sure he wants especially in Barcelona, as he can make there history again if I think correctly. First one to win 3 straight GPF ? I think no one has done that so far

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No man did so far. Irina Slutskaya ( ) has 3 back to back titles. And Navka/Kostomarov have 3, and Davis/White have 5 (!!!:eeking: ) back to back.

Does Ashley need to be the underdog?
Yes, she's not the only one. Mirai has the same problem, and Liza and Anna in Russia.

How will Ashley and Gracie rank at the final?
Gracie I think/hope will medal. Ashley will probably finish 5th or 6th, but I'd love to see her do better.

Can Hanyu replicate that performance again this season?
Maybe. If anyone can do that again, it's Hanyu. He's so intense.

Should Duhamel and Radford ditch the quad lutz?
Yes, their program is too hard currently and it's causing mistakes. Get the SBS 3lutz clean first, someone is always putting a hand down. 4twist might be a smarter quad to try as opposed to the throw lutz.

Can the Shibutanis upset Chock and Bates at the Final?
They could, but I tend to think C/B will step it up and come out ahead. I think C/B will have the PCS advantage, but not by much, so if they make any mistakes then the Shibs could come out ahead.

Sidenote: @TSLDave, is it time for Pogorilaya to skate for Ukraine? Her parents are both Ukrainian, it would be an easy switch. Don't understand what's going on with that girl, 3 horrific falls in the SP but then she can go and do 6 triples in the FS? Her whole season has been like this, actually, the SP is usually a nightmare a la Tuk but she doesn't have the 3a to blame for it, but then she can actually do the jumps in the FS. It's like the opposite of Julia, don't know what is going on. I feel bad. She's so gorgeous and actually rotates her triples, it's infuriating to see this happen.