Can anyone beat a clean Medvedeva?

qwerty · Jan 26, 2016

I just belatedly watched her Russian Nationals free program, and wow. Evgenia is so solid in her mental game and jump technique. It's an intricate and engaging program too, IMO.

Now that her PCS has essentially caught up with all the other girls, can anyone actually compete with her if Evgenia goes clean?

I feel that a clean Mao (with 3A) is the only one who could. Much as I'm rooting for Gracie, I feel like even if both went clean, Evgenia's backloading would just nudge her past Gold for the win.

4CC and Euros will be revealing as previews for Boston! Who do you think will be challenging for the gold at Worlds this year?

Procrastinator · Jan 26, 2016

For Gracie, it depends on how much the judges are willing to go with her on the components (and her performance/interpretation of her programs has varied quite wildly this season). I could easily see her winning it all in March but I think Medvedeva would have to make a mistake and Gold skate lights out in both phases. I do think a clean Gold would soar past Radionova, though. I don't have the feeling that either Mao or Wagner will go completely clean.

FlattFan · Jan 26, 2016

Clean Mao beats everyone.
Clean Gracie will blow clean Medvedeva out of the water as well.
6 clean triples vs. 7 clean triples.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1516/gpusa2015/gpusa2015_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

puremagic · Jan 26, 2016

Only clean Asada with 3A.

andyjo24 · Jan 26, 2016

What do you guys mean by clean Mao Asada?

Do you mean completely clean? As in no UR or edge calls? If so, that has never happened for Mao Asada, and although not impossible, it seems very, very unrealistic.

andyjo24 · Jan 26, 2016

FlattFan said:
Clean Mao beats everyone.
Clean Gracie will blow clean Medvedeva out of the water as well.
6 clean triples vs. 7 clean triples.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1516/gpusa2015/gpusa2015_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

You can't forecast this based off of SA results. At SA, Evgenia was still considered a newbie and therefore the judges weren't as willing to score her high. But now, she has won all the major competitions (GPF, Russian Nationals, and most likely Euros) and is considered to be, by far, the top contender for that Gold medal. Judges are going to reward her the highest PCS due to this momentum.

I would say clean Medvedeva would still beat clean Gracie due to her backloading of jumps and tanos (I hate how she overdoes them, but the judges seem to be in love with them).

HOWEVER! Worlds is in Boston this year, so Gracie has the edge if both go clean. If Worlds were held elsewhere, Medvedeva would most likely prevail.

tulosai · Jan 26, 2016

Sure, if anyone else is clean. As others have said, a clean Mao Asada would wipe the floor with Medvedeva. Both her TES and PCS would be higher. Whether Mao Asada is likely to be clean at this point is a different question, but in terms of the potential to beat Medvedeva, it is there, and she has at times skated well enough in the past that she'd be able to do it. When I say clean, I do mean no URs but she could probably get away with some edge calls.

Gracie Gold could also beat her if she was clean. I don't think it would be the same kind of wiping the floor with situation, but the potential is there especially in an event held in Boston, but even if not. Whether Gracie is capable of putting 2 clean programs together is also an open question, though, and unlike Asada, this is not something she's ever been able to do in the past.

If Medvedeva herself is not clean, and Satoko or Radionova are (with Satoko not receiving calls on her jumps), they also could potentially beat her depending on how many mistakes Medvedeva makes. There is a chance Pogorylia could also beat her were she clean and Medvedeva not.

Barring a meltdown I think that's it. I don't see Medvedeva finishing lower than 6th here pretty much under any circumstances.

Imagine · Jan 26, 2016

Yes. A perfectly clean Mao or Gracie would get the job done. Now, while Evgenia is the reigning Russian champ, I also feel like the international judges might tip the odds in favor of Anna or Elena if they give perfect performances. They will get Evgenia on PCS points on the basis of "maturity" (not that I find this to be fair).

RABID · Jan 26, 2016

Not this year, but next year I think America will have two reasons to be excited. One reason I'm sure of. The other reason I'm predicting with fingers crossed.

andyjo24 · Jan 26, 2016

Imagine said:
Yes. A perfectly clean Mao or Gracie would get the job done. Now, while Evgenia is the reigning Russian champ, I also feel like the international judges might tip the odds in favor of Anna or Elena if they give perfect performances. They will get Evgenia on PCS points on the basis of "maturity" (not that I find this to be fair).

Umm. No I don't think so. Did you see how the judges score Evgenia on PCS at GPF? They gave her a 72-73 for the FS. That's probably going to go up to near 75 if she goes clean at Worlds. I can't imagine Anna getting 75 PCS even when she goes clean. If I remember clearly, she got around a 71 or something at RUSSIAN NATIONALS. The international judges will give her that or even slightly lower.

NAOTMAA · Jan 26, 2016

The only one who would confidently beat a clean Evgenia is Mao.

With Gracie, if clean (a huge if), it would be a close call. And since worlds are in the US this year the edge would be for Gracie. But a perfect performance by Gracie at nationals where incorrect edges were ignored and marks were inflated she only matched what Evgenia got at the international GPF so I believe everywhere else Evgenia would probably win.

Everybody else would need her to make mistakes to have a chance.

Sam-Skwantch · Jan 26, 2016

Mao Asada is the only hope I see to finish ahead of squeaky clean Zhenia and even Satoko. Then again Gracie will probably get served an incredibly juicy PCS sandwich.

TBH I don't mind if anyone wins but I'm so bored with seeing skaters spotted a fall or two in PCS points :giveup:

Layback11 · Jan 26, 2016

Clean Mao (no URs) could beat anyone. And if Gracie put two programs comparable to her TEB SP and Nationals FS together, she could do it, too. Elena has the tech and consistency to do it but not the PCS, I don't think. Satoko has the PCS and everything else that isn't jump-related but has UR issues. Anna has the difficulty as well but has a tendency to have total meltdowns and also doesn't have the PCS. So I think it's just Mao and Gracie for now.

andyjo24 · Jan 26, 2016

It appears that you guys are defining "clean" as no URs. If so, I agree that Mao Asada would win for sure.

Now, is that likely to happen? That's a whole other debate.

andyjo24 · Jan 26, 2016

Sam-Skwantch said:
Mao Asada is the only hope I see to finish ahead of squeaky clean Zhenia and even Satoko. Then again Gracie will probably get served an incredibly juicy PCS sandwich.

TBH I don't mind if anyone wins but I'm so bored with seeing skaters spotted a fall or two in PCS points :giveup:

Lol. A juicy American Cheese PCS sandwich. :laugh15:

solar · Jan 26, 2016

Clean Mao would beat anyone, but the question is, will she go clean? Of course, we can't count out Gracie (if she can skate well with the pressure) and Satoko (who is super consistent). Honestly, there are lots of ladies who can score huge if they go clean.

NAOTMAA · Jan 26, 2016

Is Mao better at controlling the urs these days or is it similar to before?

andyjo24 · Jan 26, 2016

NAOTMAA said:
Is Mao better at controlling the urs these days or is it similar to before?

No, it's the same old. Even worse at times to be honest.

Where were you this season? :scratch2:

Krunchii · Jan 26, 2016

Only clean Mao but the chances of that happening is pretty low, Evgenia has the advantage in that she's been consistent all season, if she gives a perfect performances the judges will definitely give it to her and I probably would too, I don't think a clean Gracie, Elena, Satoko or Anna can beat her

mirai4life · Jan 26, 2016

FlattFan said:
Clean Mao beats everyone.
Clean Gracie will blow clean Medvedeva out of the water as well.
6 clean triples vs. 7 clean triples.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1516/gpusa2015/gpusa2015_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

#1) Wow, skate america
#2) Evgenia has pulled away since. Her score will even be higher if performed today.140+ with that 2a fall.
She went from newbie SA to a legend in months (according to the judges).

Can anyone beat a clean Medvedeva?

qwerty

Procrastinator

FlattFan

Match Penalty

puremagic

-

andyjo24

andyjo24

tulosai

Imagine

RABID

andyjo24

NAOTMAA

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”

Layback11

andyjo24

andyjo24

solar

I got cat class and I got cat style

NAOTMAA

andyjo24

Krunchii

mirai4life

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