State of U.S. Ladies' skating 2016-17 | Golden Skate

State of U.S. Ladies' skating 2016-17

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Welcome to the 5th Edition of the "State of the American/US Ladies Thread".

After 10 years of mediocrity and near-misses, a US lady is once again on the World Podium. Going into the 2016-17 Season, I think the big question on everybody's mind is going to be: Are the US ladies back? Or...is this just temporary relief for what is going to be the new norm - the US only challenging every once in a while with Russia and Japan dominating? Off we go to next season...

ASHLEY WAGNER will be the reigning World Silver Medalist(!) and will have a lot to live up to. Her biggest assets will be her confidence and her insatiable drive to outdo herself; her biggest challenges will be consistency in the short program and possibly health/injury issues at 25. It's once again easy to say she's peaked and she will never stand on a major podium again, but if she can get a killer short program and find some consistency, she'll continue to be in the mix - somewhere.

GRACIE GOLD is the reigning US Champion and is coming off a decent finish to her 2015-16 season after disappointment in Boston. Her biggest assets are her jumps and scoring potential; her biggest challenge is mental toughness/lack thereof. The question is whether this setback makes her "mad" enough to come back with a vengeance next season and contend for the World title...because you know she can if she puts her mind to it...

_____________

As for the others, it's more like "Can anyone come up and challenge these two?" Well, let's see...

MIRAI NAGASU will be coming off a Four Continents silver and a 10th place finish at a surprise trip to the World Championships. Where does she go from here? She may be in the best position of the "other" US women in that she's riding an upward momentum wave. The question then becomes what she wants out of the remainder of her career...she finally made it back to Worlds - albeit not in the fashion that she may have hoped or planned - so that's checked off...Nationals top 3 again? A 2nd National title? Top 5 at Worlds? Another Olympics? What's realistic for her?

POLINA EDMUNDS was literally 4 minutes away from a major upset and a surprise US Championship when Gracie Gold, last skater of the night, laid the FS performance of her life to overcome the SP deficit and snatch the title away. Edmunds literally could not have done more to make her case - she was absolutely clean. As she was forced out of Worlds with an injury, her season ended prematurely - and with college on the horizon for her, the question for her is, what are her goals in skating? If she wants a National Title or Top 5 at Worlds without relying on others' mistakes, the reality is she's going to need to push herself more, outside of her comfort zone...and undergo somewhat of a transformation ala Wagner in 2012...and that's not going to be easy. It may even mean a coaching and/or scenery change. But...if she has her eye elsewhere and is looking to move on (from skating), she's had a fine career...more than fine actually, she was an Olympian...and while she may stick around for another year or two, I wouldn't expect anything crazy to happen.

COURTNEY HICKS upstaged our eventual world medalist at NHK last year, only to flame out (once again!) at Nationals...that's a major problem for her, because if she cannot get over that hurdle, she will never get sent to a major international competition.

KAREN CHEN showed promise in 2015, but unfortunately had somewhat of a "sophomore slump" as they call it and was mostly unimpressive for much of last season.

THE OTHERS: Anyone else going to have a "big break", or anyone coming up the ranks that might be good to keep an eye on?
 
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StitchMonkey

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 31, 2014
I am curious to see if Vivian Le stays junior or goes senior. She has the 30th highest season best, and is head of Karen Chen so she would stand a decent chance of getting a GP invite. And she did just skate as a senior in Dallas and do very well I think it was this week. She may think she has a real shot at the Olympics in 2018 and want to go senior now to get the experience.

I think Tyler Pierce is also posed to make a splash this season if she can keep her head about her. She has never had a great reputation for consistency, but if she can do well this fall, I think she will have largely shaken that and might be seen as a real force to be reckoned with.

I still think that if Mariah Bell can get into the right mental frame of mind she can still be a factor. She is lovely to watch, her jumps are gorgeous when landed. She is just a case of if she can find her happy place so to speak.

I think Hannah Miller also deserves a mention for how far she came form last fall to Nationals. There clearly were issues and changing coach pains in the fall, but she really stepped it up for Nationals. If she can keep on that trajectory... she again should be watched.
 

Layback11

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
My thoughts:

Ashley is becoming rather consistent, and she will probably be more of a threat than Gracie because of it. Questions: will she continue her trend of clean SPs?

Gracie showed better mental strength than usual at TCC, but was still placed under Ashley, who skated slightly worse than she did. So the two big questions for her are, A) do the judges still favor her and B) is what she showed at TCC going to become her standard?

Polina had a fabulous nationals. If she gets better programs, she could do very well internationally because of her consistency. If all else fails, team up with Nam and ice dance. (I mean, the girl can already twizzle like nobody's business...;)) The important questions for her: will she get better programs, and will she ever get her URs under control?

I thought Courtney had Nationals in the bag after her fabulous GP, but nooo...she has GOT to get it together at Nationals. She's shown she can do everything else, so it is imperative she medals at Nationals soon or she'll probably never get to Worlds. Questions: will she learn to rein in her powerful jumps, and will she ever skate well at Nationals?

Karen constantly annoys me because I love her to bits and she has it all but she just can't get it together. URs are frequently her undoing. Questions: will she get her head together, and will the UR situation be improved by next season?

Mirai Nagasu has made it back to her 2010 form, but is it good enough to contend? And will she continue skating somewhat consistently?

Tyler Pierce showed a lot of promise on the CS, at Nationals, and at Junior Worlds. She's been skating pretty consistently, and has good jumps, great spins, and fine interpretation/expression, but that has not always been the case. Questions: will she keep going on an upwards trajectory?

If Vivian Le goes senior (will she? IDK), I could see her being a force on the US scene. She has, of course, HUGE (and fully rotated!) jumps, great spins, and serviceable performance quality; she always seems to do amazingly at the beginning of the season and kind of tucker out towards the end. (Case in point: Glacier Falls and JGP Bratislava vs. JGP USA and Nationals.) Questions: will she be able to get her nerves under control, and will she opt for the JGP again? (I hope so, because I want her in the final. :yes:)
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
I think Vivian Le should skate as a Senior at Nationals next year. With some refinement and reigning in her big jumps she could leapfrog a bunch of skaters and make the top 5. If only Emily Chan had the harder jumps she would be a real threat her skating overall is beautiful and she is more artistic then 99% of the Senior Ladies already. Her spins are among the best among the US Ladies and she has perfect posture she just needs the harder jumps now.
 
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stella luna

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 3, 2012
Welcome to the 5th Edition of the "State of the American/US Ladies Thread".


POLINA EDMUNDS was literally 4 minutes away from a major upset and a surprise US Championship when Gracie Gold, last skater of the night, laid the FS performance of her life to overcome the SP deficit and snatch the title away. Edmunds literally could not have done more to make her case - she was absolutely clean. As she was forced out of Worlds with an injury, her season ended prematurely - and with college on the horizon for her, the question for her is, what are her goals in skating? If she wants a National Title or Top 5 at Worlds without relying on others' mistakes, the reality is she's going to need to push herself more, outside of her comfort zone...and undergo somewhat of a transformation ala Wagner in 2012...and that's not going to be easy. It may even mean a coaching and/or scenery change. But...if she has her eye elsewhere and is looking to move on (from skating), she's had a fine career...more than fine actually, she was an Olympian...and while she may stick around for another year or two, I wouldn't expect anything crazy to happen.

Are you implying that you think Polina is not going to stay in skating after a year or two? I think with the right programs she could go far.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
My thoughts:

Ashley is becoming rather consistent, and she will probably be more of a threat than Gracie because of it.

We shall see. I don't think we can say that yet - Worlds and TCC are only two events. But it is potentially encouraging.

Gracie showed better mental strength than usual at TCC, but was still placed under Ashley, who skated slightly worse than she did.

For some reason, I'm not sure how much stock to put into these scores...

Also, remember Wagner was in a different (later) group, and a more difficult one at that...

________

Are you implying that you think Polina is not going to stay in skating after a year or two? I think with the right programs she could go far.

If she is seriously looking to higher education, than yes. It's a tall order to juggle both - unless she is going to make special arrangements (e.g., online courses, part-time enrollment).

I agree that she is capable of a breakthrough, but she has to want it and work to make it happen.
 

JackRoast

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 28, 2015
I feel that not a lot of people are talking about Amber Glen, she has potential, but it is sad to see her withdraw early this past season. Has she changed coaches?

Polina had the best programs this season. Her choreographer Rudy Galindo is nominated for the best choreographer of the year. Hopefully he wins it. He has talent and is stands out. I wish Galindo great success for many years with his students.
 

KatGrace1925

Medalist
Joined
Apr 4, 2016
Gracie's Team had changed things for her following four continents. I think that TCC shows progress and her worlds free skate was not at all like the disasters she had in the past. I do not think Ashley will be unchallenged for long.

Ashley seems to have the underdog curse by showing up for two competitions in a row! I was so excited to see her succeed, she will remain a force on the world stage.

Polina Edmunds needs to be packaged differently. Her long program this year was borning and the whole theme made her seem like a child still. If they package her differently she could come out with big star power and consistency.

Karen Chen has star power. She has a lot of potential but a key for her will be learning how to slow down, she just skates with too much power and she can not control it.

Mirai Nagasu! She totally had great overcoming moments this season! I look forward to seeing her growth next year. I don't know how much of a challenger but I wouldn't count her out completely.

I look forward to watching what Tyler Pierce and Vivian Le in the future!
 

mrrice

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 9, 2014
Clearly, I'm the last person on the planet who has not written Angela Wang off the US Map. I'll say it again, when I saw her in 2012, I swore she'd be the next big thing and I'm actually shocked she hasn't delivered at Nationals. Maybe she'll be like my fav Maria Butyrskaya and peak late in her life. I certainly hope so.
 

johnsmith72

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 9, 2014
I think Gracie's team has really changed the way they are helping prepare her for the competitions. After TCC free skate to Firebird, Frank congratulated Gracie on having fun out there and showing the audience how she loved skating out by performing well. I think Frank has realized that he needs to instill joy in Gracie's skating for her to really push through to multiple big titles and I predict an even better season next year for Gracie.
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
France
I don't think the American Ladies are going to be winning World/Olympic medals in the near future, aside from an obligatory Team Event Bronze in the Olympics, for the one or two ladies who get to participate in it. There are too many inconsistencies and the American ladies don't have that same kind of Russian intensity or Japanese calculus-skating to generate the necessary points. Nor will they be getting the benefit of an American-hosted event.
 

moriel

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 18, 2015
I wish Gracie at least repeats this season, and don´t get frustrated by not winning even when she does her best (or at least has small mistakes, not nuclear meldowns).

I wonder how Ashley will do - now that she has a World medal, will she be still motivated enough to fight?

The other ladies do not really look so promising.
I´m disappointed with Polina's last two seasons, she kinda missed the opportunity while Gracie and Ashley were not able to put two clean programs together to move up from the #3 US lady spot.
Mirai was doing quite well lately, but thats not enough to get on the podium with other top skaters in the mix.
There are a few good skaters growing up, but they arent podium material yet, not enough to compete with top russians and japanese - i´m just waiting to see how they do this season, really.
 

snowflake

I enjoy what I like
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 10, 2008
GO US girls!

I wish Gracie at least repeats this season, and don´t get frustrated by not winning even when she does her best (or at least has small mistakes, not nuclear meldowns).

I wonder how Ashley will do - now that she has a World medal, will she be still motivated enough to fight?

The other ladies do not really look so promising.
I´m disappointed with Polina's last two seasons, she kinda missed the opportunity while Gracie and Ashley were not able to put two clean programs together to move up from the #3 US lady spot.
Mirai was doing quite well lately, but thats not enough to get on the podium with other top skaters in the mix.
There are a few good skaters growing up, but they arent podium material yet, not enough to compete with top russians and japanese - i´m just waiting to see how they do this season, really.

Oh, I'm sure the worlds medal got Ashley even more motivated for new goals... what about an olympic medal :cool:
 

evasorange

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 22, 2015
Hi everyone 1st post here! I was lucky enough to attend Boston Worlds and let me say I was an Ashley fan before but watching her two performances just absolutely blew me away! She has such a presence and charm on ice that no US Lady can match imo. Gracie was decent but so flat-her short program score was a bit of a shock but then again she's always been favored more then Ashley has. Hopefully Ashley can use this momentum to bring exciting strong programs to 2016/17 season! She's doing two new ones right?
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Hi everyone 1st post here! I was lucky enough to attend Boston Worlds and let me say I was an Ashley fan before but watching her two performances just absolutely blew me away! She has such a presence and charm on ice that no US Lady can match imo. Gracie was decent but so flat-her short program score was a bit of a shock but then again she's always been favored more then Ashley has. Hopefully Ashley can use this momentum to bring exciting strong programs to 2016/17 season! She's doing two new ones right?

Welcome evasorange! Welcome to Golden Skate. Post often, post long.
 

koatcue

Medalist
Joined
Aug 31, 2011
Country
Russia
Hi everyone 1st post here! I was lucky enough to attend Boston Worlds and let me say I was an Ashley fan before but watching her two performances just absolutely blew me away! She has such a presence and charm on ice that no US Lady can match imo. Gracie was decent but so flat-her short program score was a bit of a shock but then again she's always been favored more then Ashley has. Hopefully Ashley can use this momentum to bring exciting strong programs to 2016/17 season! She's doing two new ones right?
Yes, I just can't imagine her staying with Mouline Rouge for a 3 year:laugh: Post long, post often here on this forum:)
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
My thought is (and I'm not just being lazy here :laugh:), that not a whole lot is going to change with the top girls in the next year and heading into the Olympic year. Vivian Le could make a charge towards the top, and I'm hopeful that Karen Chen will get some of her issues under control.
I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but I just don't see Courtney Hicks getting it together to make a run for the podium. The only thing I could see changing is the possibility of Mirai having a fantastic year and surpassing Polina, especially if Polina continues to put out ho-hum programs.
I just hope for now they all stay healthy and injury free!
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I still think Edmunds at her best beats out everyone but The Big Two (Gold and Wagner). Nagasu could potentially challenge, but that chronic UR problem does tend to creep up on her now and then. Speaking of Edmunds, wasn't there a comment she made post-Nationals about judging only on the free skate?

I agree about Hicks not changing her ways - that said, you never know.

Finally, about Wagner at worlds - yes, she overcame multiple demons at that event. And you could really tell how much it meant to her by her celebrations afterward...I was almost sure she was going to mess up that short, but she went out and got the job done...put herself within striking distance of the podium even with how well everyone else did. If she wants to contend for other big medals, she has to figure out what worked in Boston and replicate it x 1000...because Vintage Wagner won't contend for anything.
 
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Puchi

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 26, 2010
I think Polina is going to surprise us all next season. I'm (still) not a big fan, but the girl is a fighter, she has the goods, and she's PISSED. She won't give up.
 
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