2016-2017 State of U.S. Men Figure Skating

This is the fourth in an ongoing series about the U.S. Men. This is discussion for 2016-2017.


2016-2017 International stats: Coming soon.







Summer comp scores (overall best)
Thanks Sylvia of Unseen Skaters for the scores
Jason Brown 277.87 (Glacier Falls)
Nathan Chen 242.04 (Golden West)
Vincent Zhou 229.84 (Glacier Falls)
Max Aaron 228.81 (U.S. Collegiate Championships)
Timothy Dolensky 225.41 (Glacier Falls)
Sean Rabbit 220.27 (Glacier Falls)
Aleksei Kransnozhon 214.58 (Broadmoor; Junior)
Ross Miner 203.55 (Glacier Falls)
Grant Hochstein 202.47 (Glacier Falls)
Alexander Johnson 202.43 (Skate Detroit)
Tomoki Hiwatashi 202.13 (Broadmoor; Junior, but word is that he'll be skating Senior nationally later on)
Andrew Torgashev 196.52 (Philadelphia)
Jimmy Ma 193.45 (Glacier Falls)
Jordan Moeller 184.86 (Glacier Falls)
Shotaro Omori 183.50 (Glacier Falls)
Oleksiy Melnyk 183.84 (Philadelphia)
Daniel Kulenkamp 175.17 (Skate Detroit)
Ben Jalovick 174.15 (Glacier Falls)
Anthony Boucher 170.59 (Broadmoor)
Chase Belmontes 166.19 (Broadmoor)
Emmanuel Savary, 162.43 (Philadelphia)
Camden Pulkinen 159.41 (Broadmoor; Junior)
Sebastian Payannet 124.81 (Broadmoor)





2016-2017 Programs

Max Aaron
SP Nessun Dorma (ketp over from last year)
LP The Lion King soundtrack

Chase Belmontes
SP “Last Days” by Max Richter (music from the The Leftovers TV show); choreography by Phillip Mills
LP Selections from Jekyll & Hyde musical (1994 album featuring Anthony Warlow; Songs: Alive, Transformation, Letting Go and The Way Back); choreography by Phillip Mills

Anthony Boucher
SP “Writing’s on the Wall” by Sam Smith (from the Spectre soundtrack)
LP Aranjuez

Jason Brown
SP "Writing's on the Wa"" by Sam Smith; choreo by Rohene Ward
LP The Piano soundtrack (Big My Secret and The Scent of Love); choreo by Rohene Ward

Tim Dolensky
SP "Awake My Soul" by Mumford & Sons
LP Tango medley, choreo. by Catarina Lindgren

Tomoki Hiwatashi
SP “Big & Bad” by Big Bad Voodoo Daddy
LP La Strada film soundtrack by Nino Rota

Grant Hochstein
SP Rhapsody in Blue by Gershwin, performed by Duke Ellington
LP Pagliacci by Leoncavallo

Alexander Johnson
SP Intro by B-Tribe and Bamboleo by Gipsy Kings; choreo by Tom Dickson
LP La Strada by Niño Rota; choreo by Tom Dickson

Alexei Krasnozhon
SP Etude Op. 10, No. 3 by Frédéric Chopin; choreo by Scott Brown
FS Rodeo: Four Dance Episodes by Aaron Copeland; choreo by Scott Brown

Jimmy Ma
SP "The Real Slim Shady" by Eminem
LP Piano Concerto No. 2 by Rachmaninoff

Jordan Moeller
SP
LP Romeo & Juliet (Baz Luhrmann) 1996 film soundtrack (includes voiceovers by Leonardo DiCaprio); choreo by Rohene Ward

Sean Rabbitt
SP East of Eden by Lee Holdridge; choreography by Sean Rabbitt
LP Mambo Medley by Pérez Prado

Adam Rippon
SP Let Me Think About It; choreo Jeff Buttle
LP Bloodstream, performed by Stateless; choreo: Benji Schwimmer

Andrew Torgashev
SP The Age of Cathedrals (from Notre Dame de Paris)
LP Bohemian Rhapsody by Queen

Luke West
SP
LP Notre Dame de Paris soundtrack; choreo by Drew Meekins

Vincent Zhou USA
SP "Writing's on the Wall," combining the Sam Smith song with orchestral music from the James Bond movie Spectre, for which the song was written
LP Jazz music from the 1959 TV show Johnny Staccato, composed by Elmer Bernstein; choreo by David Wilson



*** 04/30/2016 original post
Some thoughts on the men

Top contenders
* Adam Rippon - He has established himself as the top U.S. men last season. While his win at Nationals was highly disputed, he responded by earning the highest placement at Worlds. He promises to keep trying on the quad lutz and even perhaps throwing in a quad toe this season. What will it take for him to continue the momentum?
* Max Aaron - He started out strong in the 2015-2016 season with a win at Skate America, beating Japanese wunderkind Shoma Uno and Jason Brown. However, he had an up-and-down season since then. Aaron has continued to work on program components though they appeared not to be budging. What will yield the best return for Aaron -- trying to up PCS or trying to just get consistent on TES?
* Nathan Chen -- Seen as the future of figure skating, but injury plagued him at the Nationals gala of all places. Expect to see loads of quads from him. Question is whether he will stay injury free.
* Grant Hochstein -- He has respectable top 10 performance at Worlds with a SOHL in the free skate. He's had a taste of being on the top, will he be able to go further?
* Jason Brown -- He was injured for much of last season and then suddenly came roaring back at Team Challenge Cup with pretty strong scores. He's gone as far as he can go without the quad, will he be able to integrate it this season?

Dark horses
* Ross Miner -- He had some great highlights, including during Nationals SP. But he couldn't put it all together. Will that change in the upcoming season?
* Alexander Johnson -- Had a strong ending to his season with a top 6 finish, his best yet. Always a great performer with interesting Tom Dickson choreography.
* Timothy Dolensky -- A breakout season for him of sorts, including a strong free skate performance and cutting his placement in half (from 14th to 7th) at Nationals this year. He could be a dark horse for podium next season if his progress continues.
* Richard Dornbush -- Like Brown, injury kept him away from nationals. He continues to stagnate after his breakout 2010-2011 season.
* Vincent Zhou -- He has quads. He has a 3A now. He will probably do JGP one more season.

Question marks
* Joshua Farris -- Will we see him return? Radio silence for now.
* Jeremy Abbott -- He hasn't said he's officially retired, so putting him on the list.

Some stats .
Number of U.S. Champions: 4 (Rippon, Aaron, Brown, Abbott)
Number of U.S. medalists: 9 (the four above, plus Chen, Hochstein, Miner, Dornbush and Farris)
Number of World Spots: 2 (blood bath, y'all)

Previous editions:
2015-2016
2014-2015
2013-2014 (Post-GP)

Keep an eye on Tomoki Hiwatashi and Andrew Torgashev.I think both of them will probably do Jgp at least one more season.They have great potential and better basics than Vincent IMO.

I really hope Joshua is able to return. It'd be a shame if he cannot continue. But, "blood bath" is right. Too many talented skaters for us to have only two world spots. We've got to get good placements at worlds next year because it will dictate whether we regain a third for the Olympics. It'll be tough, but I'm most confident in Jason and Josh if they are healthy, with Adam close behind. But Adam's 4L just isn't getting rotation. Is he training other quads (toe, Salchow)? He'll need two in the long and one in the short for top 5, I suspect, so it'll be tough getting 6th and 7th place (at worst) with whomever we send because our men struggle with quads. Fingers crossed.

song9025 said:

Keep an eye on Tomoki Hiwatashi and Andrew Torgashev.I think both of them will probably do Jgp at least one more season.They have great potential and better basics than Vincent IMO.

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Welcome to Golden Skate! Post often and post long!

I agree both Andrew and Tomoki show great promise. Tomoki definitely impressed at Jr. Worlds!

Speaking of juniors we still have the 2008-2016 U.S junior champs in the men's field today, plus a number of medalists.

Mrs. P said:

... Aaron has continued to work on program components though they appeared not to be budging. ...

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I think it's overly harsh to say that Max's PCS appeared not to be budging.

I would say that Max's PCS are starting to move in the right direction. Plenty of room for more improvement, but I find some encouragement in his PCS scores.

2016 Nats vs. 2015 Nats:


International SP PCS


International FS PCS

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sc8 said:

I really hope Joshua is able to return. ...

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:agree:

After seeing Jason's free skate at TCC, that + quad will be pretty much unstoppable among the American men, except for *maybe* an artistically improved Nathan Chen (with all quads/3A's landed cleanly). US Nationals is going to be very exciting, considering that either Nathan, Adam, Max, Jason or Joshua will finish off the podium :hap85:

Maybe PCS not budging as fast as Max would like, is probably what I meant to say. I'm speaking from a scoring strategy standpoint here. I don't think anyone is disputing he is making improvements, but my question is if he would be money ahead to consistently boost TES, where honestly he could have a sizable gap on the rest of the competition (except maybe Nathan), rather than to try to focus on slower incrimental increases in PCS.

Of course, a long tail strategy is not a bad thing either.

Richard Dornbush - back on the ice... and doing back flips

https://www.instagram.com/p/BEPNmBFqGkV/

Jason Brown - back on the ice... and competing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdz1pekZol4

Jordan Moeller - back on the ice... well he is on ice.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BEgoiTegpyV/

Nathan Chen - back on the ice... thanks to Chase

https://www.instagram.com/p/BEZ0g5YhQdD/

Joshua Farris.... um no news is good news?

The injuries to the US Men last season was insane. Jason, Nathan, Josh and Richard and Andrew T all missing part or all of last season. To bad the 3rd spot was lost by one placement their needs to be about 5 spots with this kind of depth.

Mrs. P said:

Maybe PCS not budging as fast as Max would like, is probably what I meant to say. I'm speaking from a scoring strategy standpoint here. I don't think anyone is disputing he is making improvements, but my question is if he would be money ahead to consistently boost TES, where honestly he could have a sizable gap on the rest of the competition (except maybe Nathan), rather than to try to focus on slower incrimental increases in PCS.

Of course, a long tail strategy is not a bad thing either.

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Thx, Mrs. P.
And I forgot to thank you earlier for the new thread .

Nathan13 said:

... US Nationals is going to be very exciting, considering that either Nathan, Adam, Max, Jason or Joshua will finish off the podium :hap85:

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Both exciting and heartbreaking :sad4:.
Plus ... it would be impossible not to be thrilled :yay: for any other man who can get onto the podium, but then even less room for those five :sad21: .

Mrs. P said:

... I agree both Andrew and Tomoki show great promise. Tomoki definitely impressed at Jr. Worlds!

Speaking of juniors we still have the 2008-2016 U.S junior champs in the men's field today, plus a number of medalists.

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Cool stat .

---

ETA, at this late date, just now stumbled upon a Mar 26 item to add to Stitch's link to the Nathan photo posted on Apr 19:

golden411icecoverage said:

I would say that Max's PCS are starting to move in the right direction. Plenty of room for more improvement, but I find some encouragement in his PCS scores.

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I was finding encouragement in them too until the PCS score for his FS came up in Boston. The backslide was completely inexplicable and I imagine after the glow of the clean skate and the happiness of a good performance was faded a little, Team Max had a good look at that number and scratched their heads. Because that Black Swan in Boston was his best free skate ever, and yet, it scored two points less than his Skate America performance and only four points higher than Kovtun's total disaster.

I think Joshua will be back and I am looking forward to it. I am not looking forward to Nationals already. There are many who will have to stay at home, and no matter how well he skates, I can already well guess who will be among them.

Here is how I see it.

1. Jason Brown - favored by many, king of PCS but with no quad will be tough for him to crack top 5 in Worlds. He might be a late bloomer and start doing that quad toe in competition this year, lets hope. (although now you need 3 to 4 quads to win worlds).

2. Nathan Chen - with youth on his side he might comeback from hip surgery and if he does he can be our leading man but, he will need to establish himself this upcoming season in preparation to make noise at the 2018 Olympics.

3. Max, Rippon - These two will keep fighting for our attention the next two years. I do not think Adam will ever hit the quad consistently enough to be a factor. Poor Max will need ten quads to surpass Brown and Adam.

4. Andrew T. - He has it all but, will be too young, has tons of potential in the next cycle.

5. Farris - Another one of those skaters who has it all but, good health. Waiting patiently for his return but, doubtful.

No one else in the country has a realistic shot at international stardom.

MasterB said:

4. Andrew T. - He has it all but, will be too young, has tons of potential in the next cycle.

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He has potential, style, and youth on his side, but it's a stretch to say he has it all until we actually see the big jumps in competition.

Ice Dance said:

He has potential, style, and youth on his side, but it's a stretch to say he has it all until we actually see the big jumps in competition.

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By all - I mean his has style, great technique, eye of the tiger and is only 14 years old. While we won't know his full potential for another couple of years he sure has a lot of promise and of the up and comers he is the only one I am willing to bet on.

Andrew T. has great basics which is key for a young skater and is already a great performer at 14. Word is he was not only already landing triple axels but quads when he got injured. The US looks good for the next Olympic cycle post 2018 with Nathan, Vincent and Andrew and also Tomoki H. With how the Men'S event is going now no longer can you wait until you are almost 20 before you start practicing quads so that's why we are now seeing in the Junior ranks these 15 year olds going for quads.

Jammers said:

Andrew T. has great basics which is key for a young skater and is already a great performer at 14. Word is he was not only already landing triple axels but quads when he got injured. The US looks good for the next Olympic cycle post 2018 with Nathan, Vincent and Andrew and also Tommy H. With how the Men'S event is going now no longer can you wait until you are almost 20 before you start practicing quads so that's why we are now seeing in the Junior ranks these 15 year olds going for quads.

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I love Andrew T., but I hope he is taking it easy with the quad practice. As are any and all 15 year old boys. I would rather not see any of these young men ever on the Worlds' podium if the price is surgery in your mid teens, and in all probability, walking (let alone skating) with pain at 40.

Of course, all boys mature at different rates, and maybe these boys are mature enough physically to handle the physical demands. ( My brother was 6 feet tall, 180 pounds and had a full beard at 15; Henrys grow early and grow big. ) But I truly hope this decision is carefully made, and not a mad rush to keep up with the quadsters. I find Andrew and Tomoki very charming skaters, notwithstanding.

MasterB said:

Here is how I see it.

1. Jason Brown - favored by many, king of PCS but with no quad will be tough for him to crack top 5 in Worlds. He might be a late bloomer and start doing that quad toe in competition this year, lets hope. (although now you need 3 to 4 quads to win worlds).

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I agree Jason needs to get at least one quad, stat.

However, it's worth noting: Jason's scores at Team Challenge Cup (269.22) would've put him fourth place at Worlds, just more than a point behind Boyang Jin (270.99) and well ahead of Patrick Chan (266.75). And that's with wonky Triple axels, too! Without the rough landing in the short and step out in the long, he would easily have gotten over 271-275 range.

His PCS at TCC would've also put him 4th at worlds, only behind Javi, Yuzu, and Patrick. Overall, both TES and PCS, those are *fantastic* scores for anyone in the World. The judges clearly want him to be high up there.

(Also, before anyone chimes in "okay but that was with Boyang and Patrick both bombing!!!" -- that's why it's a skating competition; and we all know one of Jason's strengths is that he pretty much never bombs. That's how he got 4th in 2015, too.)

MasterB said:

No one else in the country has a realistic shot at international stardom.

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Hey, many of us ruled out Ashley Wagner before 2012, too....

aromaticchicken said:

I agree Jason needs to get at least one quad, stat.

However, it's worth noting: Jason's scores at Team Challenge Cup (269.22) would've put him fourth place at Worlds, just more than a point behind Boyang Jin (270.99) and well ahead of Patrick Chan (266.75). And that's with wonky Triple axels, too! Without the rough landing in the short and step out in the long, he would easily have gotten over 271-275 range.

His PCS at TCC would've also put him 4th at worlds, only behind Javi, Yuzu, and Patrick. Overall, both TES and PCS, those are *fantastic* scores for anyone in the World. The judges clearly want him to be high up there.

(Also, before anyone chimes in "okay but that was with Boyang and Patrick both bombing!!!" -- that's why it's a skating competition; and we all know one of Jason's strengths is that he pretty much never bombs. That's how he got 4th in 2015, too.)

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I do feel the scores was inflated at TCC.

He was scoring about 83-85 earlier in the season.

That said, I do think his overall skating at TCC (based on watching run-throughs in practice; I was in the media mixed zone during his actual competition skates) did improve from 2015 Worlds and definitely when compared to when I last saw him in person at Nationals 2014. More speed and flow and I thought his jumps looked great too, so some improved marks on both TES/PCS are warranted. I'm not sure, however, if 90+ PCS is going to stick when we're not in an end-of-season inflation mode.

Another thing to consider is that he had only been practicing those programs consistently for about six weeks leading up to TCC, a big reason why he didn't attempt the quad there. It will be interesting to see how he does when he has some more seasoning/time on the programs, especially the SP.

Mrs. P said:

I do feel the scores was inflated at TCC.

He was scoring about 83-85 earlier in the season.

That said, I do think his overall skating at TCC (based on watching run-throughs in practice; I was in the media mixed zone during his actual competition skates) did improve from 2015 Worlds and definitely when compared to when I last saw him in person at Nationals 2014. More speed and flow and I thought his jumps looked great too, so some improved marks on both TES/PCS are warranted. I'm not sure, however, if 90+ PCS is going to stick when we're not in an end-of-season inflation mode.

Another thing to consider is that he had only been practicing those programs consistently for about six weeks leading up to TCC. It will be interesting to see how he does when he has some more seasoning/time on the programs, especially the SP.

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Inflation at TCC is definitely a possibility. But then again, there's some generous room for buffer if he lands his axels clean, which he didn't do there. Even if his score dropped 3-5 points in PCS, that could easily be mostly made up for by landing the triple axel in the second half.

It's interesting - it's almost as if the judges (both USA *and* international) are trying to reward him as much as they can for his general skating..... even if he doesn't have the quad

aromaticchicken said:

I agree Jason needs to get at least one quad, stat.

However, it's worth noting: Jason's scores at Team Challenge Cup (269.22) would've put him fourth place at Worlds, just more than a point behind Boyang Jin (270.99) and well ahead of Patrick Chan (266.75). And that's with wonky Triple axels, too! Without the rough landing in the short and step out in the long, he would easily have gotten over 271-275 range.

His PCS at TCC would've also put him 4th at worlds, only behind Javi, Yuzu, and Patrick. Overall, both TES and PCS, those are *fantastic* scores for anyone in the World. The judges clearly want him to be high up there.

(Also, before anyone chimes in "okay but that was with Boyang and Patrick both bombing!!!" -- that's why it's a skating competition; and we all know one of Jason's strengths is that he pretty much never bombs. That's how he got 4th in 2015, too.)




Hey, many of us ruled out Ashley Wagner before 2012, too....

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But you have to note that Jason probably wouldn't have placed in the last group in the FS at Worlds, which would have probably lowered his PCS. Plus, TCC scores were overly inflated even more so than Worlds, which was already inflated.