2016-2017 State of U.S. Ice Dance | Page 5 | Golden Skate

2016-2017 State of U.S. Ice Dance

aka_gerbil

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
Aldridge and Eaton were 3rd at 4CC and at competed at Worlds in 2014

I remember that they did go to 4CC and Worlds as first year seniors, but I don't think they're a particularly relevant example for the original premise/question that kicked of the discussion about if the current top 3 US ice dance teams are all locks for the Olympic team next season barring injury or if one of the younger teams coming up from juniors has a shot to knock one of them off. 2014 was an Olympic season and USFS did not send the top three Olympic-bound teams from nationals to 4CC. 4CC in an Olympic year can be a wonderful opportunity for a young team, but it's far from being the big dance. As for worlds, D/W skipped the post-olympics in order to participate in DWTS and H/D declined the spot that opened up so Madi could have the surgery needed for her hip sooner rather than later. Thus, A/E got the worlds spot that year in part due to injury in another team, not because they were able to usurp one of the top teams and land in the top 3 at nationals. That said, A/E's experience that season is a good example of opportunities that can open up for some of the younger teams depending on whether or not everyone decides to go to worlds, if everyone stays healthy, and of course a trip to 4CC as the top 3 will be headed off to the Olympics.

As for next season, in terms of H/D and the younger teams, I think everyone needs to apply some logical thinking and have some real talk here. SnowWhite made a great post above about world junior champions from more recent history making it to senior worlds their first season as seniors. There was that one stretch of years where it seemed more common, but you had some exceptional talent like V/M and then in the other years it was largely due to the field being weak at senior level. If you want to go back and look at history since the inception of jr. worlds, that one stretch of teams is a big outlier. The Shibs were the team with the most recent big splash on to seniors, but just in terms of making it onto the team, ice dance was super weak that year with B/A having retired and Samuelson/Bates out with injury (before they ultimately split). If B/A had decided to stay around for another season as Linichuk supposedly tried to talk them into and if S/Bates had been injured, the Shibs senior debut season might have been very different.

H/D, IMO, are rising stars of US ice dance. They've just really started seeing sucess the past couple of seasons after the initial growing pains of putting a new partnership together (it's ice dance, it takes time) and then Hubbell's injury (which she said in the TSL interview last fall that it's all good now). Ice dancers compete until they're older, and I'm hard pressed to see them walking away anytime soon or before the year 2022. They've made the senior GPF twice. Have won medals in every GP event they've entered since Skate Canada in 2013. They're trading placements with established world medalists. If not for the fall on those twizzles in the FD at worlds, they would have been the bronze medalists at worlds. In the SD at worlds, they finished only 0.36 points behind the team that had won the two previous world titles. They're knocking on the door, pretty loudly at this point. Even with an invalid element, they still managed to finish in the top 10 at worlds and beat by 12 points the team (G/F) that beat H/B at Golden Spin. H/D are in contention for the Olympic Bronze next season. USFS is not going to leave them home for an untested, inexperienced just-up-from juniors team to go finish out of the top 10.

Let me ask it differently. Do you think their "body of work" would get them to the Olympics with a pewter? I think a pewter and body of work would be enough for the Shibs and Chock and Bates, but I think H/D still need a a great fall season to nail down their body of work argument.

No, I don't think they have the "body of work" to get on the Olympic team, but I think, at this point, I'd put them at 90 percent odds that they will manage to get into the top 3. I think the battle will be more who will get the 4CC spots cause there are easily at least 4 teams that have a legitimate shot at them and there's only 3 of those spots too.

I'd actually argue that they do have the body of work using Ashley Wagner in 2014 as precedent.

H/D were thisclose to medaling at worlds (if not for the fluke fall). H/D did show at worlds that if they're clean, they're in medal contention. To repeat, USFS is not going to leave home a medal contender for a team that's not even going to make the top 10.

I know that writing off H/D is a favorite past-time on the boards, but I think it's time for people to come to grips with this team is not mid-pack anymore. They're one of the big dogs now.
 

olayolay

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Can we really call H/D's mistakes "flukes" when they make them at almost every major competition? :scratch2:
 

blancanieves

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 3, 2012
Can we really call H/D's mistakes "flukes" when they make them at almost every major competition? :scratch2:

What is the scope of the question? An entire career, one season, two seasons? Which competitions qualify as major? Should we assume that there is no difference between a mistake and a fluke?

For what is worth, I'd call H/D's falls at Nationals and Worlds, fluke falls. I'd include Scott Moir's stumble at Worlds in that category as well. Fluke errors occur unexpectedly, without an anticipatory/visible trace.

A mistake is something more dissectable like having under-rotated jumps; or not fulfilling ISU guidelines for element levels, like holding a dance lift for too long or letting go of your blade too soon during a twizzle sequence.

In any case, considering H/D's trajectory from year 1 to year 6 of their partnership, I wouldn't conclude that the mistakes/flukes they had in the 2016-2017 season were typical of their usual performances. They have steadily ascended to the top tier of today's tight Ice Dance field because they've competed strongly more often than not.

Beyond that, most top teams displayed weaknesses here and there this past season too. Everybody has work to do in this Olympic year.
 

Barb

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 13, 2009
Fluke could be to fall in a big hole on the ice, not this case, Zach´s toe pick touched the ice, that was not fluke. Honestly almost nothing of what is happening on the ice (or in the life) is because of luck.
 
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Ice Dance

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 26, 2014
These young teams are very strong & very talented. McNamara & Carpenter, the Parsons, and Hawayek & Baker have all proven themselves internationally and do have a body of work that stretches back years and demonstrates competitiveness (P&B don't). H&B have a personal best only three points off of Hubbell & Donohue's. M&C and the Parsons have been dominating the JGP and earning full slates of spots for U.S. junior ice dance the past three seasons. (I can picture any one of these particular three young teams passing mid-quad medalists and fighting for places on the podium by 2022).

It would be hard to tell any of these young teams they haven't done enough if one of them managed to defeat H&D, C&B, or the Shibs head-to-head in competition.

But to make this U.S. ice dance team, you are essentially going to have to prove that you can medal at the Olympic Games. Because that is exactly what the current top three dance teams have done.
 
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slider11

Medalist
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
I think the biggest threat to the top 3 US ice dance teams is that in order to win an OGM, each team will be trying to put together the most technically difficult program with extremely intricate artistry which lends itself to mistakes. And in order to avoid mistakes, it involves a great deal of training which lends itself to injury. In other words, to get to P/C or V/M's level they have to be their VERY best not just their best. Of course P/C and V/M have the same challenges but in P/C's case I think there is a natural talent that gives them an edge. And in V/M's case there is the vast experience in already winning OGM and many other titles. All the teams have challenges, but I think the top 3 US teams are most vulnerable to errors or injuries which opens the door during the season for other US teams.

I also think it will be interesting to see how M/C and P/P do in the Senior curcuit and once the Olympic season is done if they stick with the Washington, DC coaching team or are enticed by one of the Detroit/Quebec teams.
 

aka_gerbil

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
These young teams are very strong & very talented. McNamara & Carpenter, the Parsons, and Hawayek & Baker have all proven themselves internationally and do have a body of work that stretches back years and demonstrates competitiveness (P&B don't). H&B have a personal best only three points off of Hubbell & Donohue's. M&C and the Parsons have been dominating the JGP and earning full slates of spots for U.S. junior ice dance the past three seasons. (I can picture any one of these particular three young teams passing mid-quad medalists and fighting for places on the podium by 2022).

It would be hard to tell any of these young teams they haven't done enough if one of them managed to defeat H&D, C&B, or the Shibs head-to-head in competition.

The younger teams do have a body of work, but it's a junior body of work against other junior teams. Senior level is a whole new ballgame. Competitiveness with the likes of other juniors? Sure. Not so much with the likes of senior world medal teams. In the last two seasons, H/D have at least one defeated in at least one segment W/P, Shibs, C/B, B/S, and C/L. They were close to P/C in the SD at worlds. The only currently competing world medalist team they haven't beat in a segment or gotten close to is V/M, and V/M are an entirely different bar.

As for H/B's personal best only being a few points off H/D's, you have to look at context. H/D's pb (180.82) is from an ISU championship event, 2017 4CC. H/B's (177.38) is from 2016 Golden Spin of Zagreb, a senior B notorious for overscoring. They were beat by G/F by 2.92 points at that event. H/D beat G/F by 12 at worlds with an invalid element. In head-to-head, the teams were close in 2015 when Madi was still recovering from her hip surgery. But H/D beat H/B by 19.95 points in 2016 and 31.36 points in 2017. That is a heck of a points cushion.

US selection criteria takes more into account than just placements from the current seasons nationals, so I do think if something happened at nationals, usfs would still send Shibs, H/D, and C/B over one of the junior teams.

Hypothetical scenario: USFS has planned C/B for SD and Shibs for FD in the team event. Then say Evan comes down with the stomach flu. They can sub in H/D and H/D are capable of bringing in just as big of a score as C/B. None of the junior teams would be able to do that.

But to make this U.S. ice dance team, you are essentially going to have to prove that you can medal at the Olympic Games. Because that is exactly what the current top three dance teams have done.

Exactly
 

VIETgrlTerifa

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
As of right now, it seems most likely that the only way the Olympic team WON'T be the Shibs, C/B, and H/D is if Davis/White decide to come back after all and have a V/M-like comeback season. With D/W's announcing they are not coming back and probably have plans with tours and whatnot, that is not happening. I think something seriously flukey and major over the course of the season or at both phases of the competition at Nationals has to happen for any one of the three aforementioned teams to not be named on to the Olympic team. The real question is how the GP season and Nationals will turn out in determining which team(s) will get to do the team event for Pyeongchang.

BTW, with some overly excited fans of the junior teams notwithstanding, I don't think this board is particularly negative on H/D. I find them to be one of the more celebrated teams on here. There are some negative comments about them, but that's true for almost every team here. Some skaters really aren't liked though, but H/D aren't one of them as far as I can tell.
 
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Ice Dance

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 26, 2014
I'm completely in agreement that a junior dance record vs. a senior dance record are very different.

That does not mean a dance team cannot prove itself during this senior season. But it is a wildly huge ask. For perspective, the only dance team in history that has medaled at Worlds in its first season won two bronze medals on the GP that year. That would not have been enough to top the current top three U.S. dance teams on the GP this season. Virtue & Moir's first full senior season's results would not have been enough. Davis & White's first two senior season's results would not have been enough. Even Klimova & Ponomarenko's early seasons' results would not have been enough.

I'm in complete agreement that Hubbell & Donohue have proven themselves as a top-level senior team. (I also disagree that the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. You never count an FD in the books until the hardest elements are done, and that means at the very least, both footwork sequences and the twizzles. No men's or lady's LP is considered someone's before two of his or her most difficult elements have been attempted). Rather, Hubbell & Donohue have proven themselves to be medal contenders by 1. defeating Weaver & Poje at 4CCs, 2. defeating Bobrova & Soloviev at SA &--maybe more important--splitting placements with them outside of the U.S., 3. placing third in the SD at Worlds, 4. earning a couple level 4s on the footwork at Worlds.

Having said all that, I do have to say that this year's Nationals is at least as poor a comparison as the teams' current PBs. A one-fall vs. two-fall competition tells us mostly that both H&B and H&D can have a crummy competition.

Finally, I have to add that Chock & Bates were at least as implosive this season as Hubbell & Donahue.
 
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blancanieves

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 3, 2012
I'm in complete agreement that Hubbell & Donohue have proven themselves as a top-level senior team. (I also disagree that the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. You never count an FD in the books until the hardest elements are done, and that means at the very least, both footwork sequences and the twizzles.

Here's why I sustain the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. Up until the fall they were on par to wind up at least third, the TES tracker looked good, and reviewing the protocols the GOEs for their elements were good. There were only two required elements left to complete before the fall, the twizzle sequence which (unfortunately) immediately transitioned into the diagonal step sequence. The first step sequence (circular) had already occurred earlier in the program, and it'd earned a L4 and 10.80 points, the second highest mark for that element in the FD event. V/M's diagonal step sequence garnered 10.94 points.

The fall happens, and because the 1st set of twizzles isn't completed, the whole element is thrown out and they get 0 points in combined Base Value/GOE for it. That wiped out 6.60/5.60 points in base value for L4/L3 twizzles, plus at least .51 points in GOE, which is the most modest GOE for completed twizzles by the top 10, the highest being 1.80 points. For reference, H/D had the highest twizzle sequence score in the SD (8.23 points, BV 6.60, GOE 1.63). They're not weak "twizzlers."

The debacle with the twizzles happens and the judges were probably still in shock as H/D go into the diagonal step sequence. Even though it gets a decent 1.73 in GOE, the sequence gets called a L2. This means a loss of at least 1.50 points in BV had they received a L3, which is within their usual range.

A bare bones estimate of points lost* comes out to, let's say, 8.61 (5.60 + .51 + 1.50 + 1 mandatory fall deduction point), and the difference in total scores between 3rd (185.18) and 9th (177.70) was 7.48 points. The fall cost them the bronze.

But, the quality of their skating is not going to suddenly disappear, disappointment or not. I'm excited to see what they do this season.


P.S. *and excluding any impact the fall may have had in PCS
 
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WeakAnkles

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 1, 2011
I'm completely in agreement that a junior dance record vs. a senior dance record are very different.

That does not mean a dance team cannot prove itself during this senior season. But it is a wildly huge ask. For perspective, the only dance team in history that has medaled at Worlds in its first season won two bronze medals on the GP that year. That would not have been enough to top the current top three U.S. dance teams on the GP this season. Virtue & Moir's first full senior season's results would not have been enough. Davis & White's first two senior season's results would not have been enough. Even Klimova & Ponomarenko's early season's results would not have been enough.

I'm in complete agreement that Hubbell & Donohue have proven themselves as a top-level senior team. (I also disagree that the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. You never count an FD in the books until the hardest elements are done, and that means at the very least, both footwork sequences and the twizzles. No men's or lady's LP is considered someone's before two of his or her most difficult elements have been attempted). Rather, Hubbell & Donohue have proven themselves to be medal contenders by 1. defeating Weaver & Poje at 4CCs, 2. defeating Bobrova & Soloviev at SA &--maybe more important--splitting placements with them outside of the U.S., 3. placing third in the SD at Worlds, 4. earning a couple level 4s on the footwork at Worlds.

Having said all that, I do have to say that this year's Nationals is at least as poor a comparison as the teams' current PBs. A one-fall vs. two-fall competition tells us mostly that both H&B and H&D can have a crummy competition.

Finally, I have to add that Chock & Bates were at least as implosive this season as Hubbell & Donahue.

This. Spot on.

H/B broke my heart at Nationals. It was such an exquisite performance up to that fall. [Sniff!]
 

tennisguy

Rinkside
Joined
Apr 23, 2017
Here's why I sustain the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. Up until the fall they were on par to wind up at least third, the TES tracker looked good, and reviewing the protocols the GOEs for their elements were good. There were only two required elements left to complete before the fall, the twizzle sequence which (unfortunately) immediately transitioned into the diagonal step sequence. The first step sequence (circular) had already occurred earlier in the program, and it'd earned a L4 and 10.80 points, the second highest mark for that element in the FD event. V/M's diagonal step sequence garnered 10.94 points.

The fall happens, and because the 1st set of twizzles isn't completed, the whole element is thrown out and they get 0 points in combined Base Value/GOE for it. That wiped out 6.60/5.60 points in base value for L4/L3 twizzles, plus at least .51 points in GOE, which is the most modest GOE for completed twizzles by the top 10, the highest being 1.80 points. For reference, H/D had the highest twizzle sequence score in the SD (8.23 points, BV 6.60, GOE 1.63). They're not weak "twizzlers."

The debacle with the twizzles happens and the judges were probably still in shock as H/D go into the diagonal step sequence. Even though it gets a decent 1.73 in GOE, the sequence gets called a L2. This means a loss of at least 1.50 points in BV had they received a L3, which is within their usual range.

A bare bones estimate of points lost* comes out to, let's say, 8.61 (5.60 + .51 + 1.50 + 1 mandatory fall deduction point), and the difference in total scores between 3rd (185.18) and 9th (177.70) was 7.48 points. The fall cost them the bronze.

But, the quality of their skating is not going to suddenly disappear, disappointment or not. I'm excited to see what they do this season.


P.S. *and excluding any impact the fall may have had in PCS

I would also mention that they have the best coaches to help them come back from the emotional experience of the World Championships. Dubreuil/Lauzon had that terrible fall at the 2006 Olympics when they were in position to win a medal and then they came back at the World Championships and won the silver.
 

Matilda

Medalist
Joined
Dec 19, 2012
I hope Madi and Zach will have a redemption season next year, after the unfortunate FD in the Worlds. They are my favorite team and I want them to win all things!
 

chameleon

On the Ice
Joined
May 29, 2014
Assignments are out, with seven of our teams getting at least one spot, and the top 5 at senior nationals getting two each. Parsons and McNamara/Carpenter are probably going to be fighting for the host spot, and there's the hope that another spot will open up somewhere so they can both get two. Pogrebinsky/Benoit and McNamara/Carpenter will go head to head at CoC, which may be an early indication of how the 4CC team will work out.
 
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