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Thread: 2016-2017 State of U.S. Ice Dance

  1. #91
    On the Ice
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice Dance View Post
    I'm in complete agreement that Hubbell & Donohue have proven themselves as a top-level senior team. (I also disagree that the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. You never count an FD in the books until the hardest elements are done, and that means at the very least, both footwork sequences and the twizzles.
    Here's why I sustain the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. Up until the fall they were on par to wind up at least third, the TES tracker looked good, and reviewing the protocols the GOEs for their elements were good. There were only two required elements left to complete before the fall, the twizzle sequence which (unfortunately) immediately transitioned into the diagonal step sequence. The first step sequence (circular) had already occurred earlier in the program, and it'd earned a L4 and 10.80 points, the second highest mark for that element in the FD event. V/M's diagonal step sequence garnered 10.94 points.

    The fall happens, and because the 1st set of twizzles isn't completed, the whole element is thrown out and they get 0 points in combined Base Value/GOE for it. That wiped out 6.60/5.60 points in base value for L4/L3 twizzles, plus at least .51 points in GOE, which is the most modest GOE for completed twizzles by the top 10, the highest being 1.80 points. For reference, H/D had the highest twizzle sequence score in the SD (8.23 points, BV 6.60, GOE 1.63). They're not weak "twizzlers."

    The debacle with the twizzles happens and the judges were probably still in shock as H/D go into the diagonal step sequence. Even though it gets a decent 1.73 in GOE, the sequence gets called a L2. This means a loss of at least 1.50 points in BV had they received a L3, which is within their usual range.

    A bare bones estimate of points lost* comes out to, let's say, 8.61 (5.60 + .51 + 1.50 + 1 mandatory fall deduction point), and the difference in total scores between 3rd (185.18) and 9th (177.70) was 7.48 points. The fall cost them the bronze.

    But, the quality of their skating is not going to suddenly disappear, disappointment or not. I'm excited to see what they do this season.


    P.S. *and excluding any impact the fall may have had in PCS
    Last edited by blancanieves; 05-18-2017 at 03:44 AM.

  2. #92
    Bona Fide Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice Dance View Post
    I'm completely in agreement that a junior dance record vs. a senior dance record are very different.

    That does not mean a dance team cannot prove itself during this senior season. But it is a wildly huge ask. For perspective, the only dance team in history that has medaled at Worlds in its first season won two bronze medals on the GP that year. That would not have been enough to top the current top three U.S. dance teams on the GP this season. Virtue & Moir's first full senior season's results would not have been enough. Davis & White's first two senior season's results would not have been enough. Even Klimova & Ponomarenko's early season's results would not have been enough.

    I'm in complete agreement that Hubbell & Donohue have proven themselves as a top-level senior team. (I also disagree that the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. You never count an FD in the books until the hardest elements are done, and that means at the very least, both footwork sequences and the twizzles. No men's or lady's LP is considered someone's before two of his or her most difficult elements have been attempted). Rather, Hubbell & Donohue have proven themselves to be medal contenders by 1. defeating Weaver & Poje at 4CCs, 2. defeating Bobrova & Soloviev at SA &--maybe more important--splitting placements with them outside of the U.S., 3. placing third in the SD at Worlds, 4. earning a couple level 4s on the footwork at Worlds.

    Having said all that, I do have to say that this year's Nationals is at least as poor a comparison as the teams' current PBs. A one-fall vs. two-fall competition tells us mostly that both H&B and H&D can have a crummy competition.

    Finally, I have to add that Chock & Bates were at least as implosive this season as Hubbell & Donahue.
    This. Spot on.

    H/B broke my heart at Nationals. It was such an exquisite performance up to that fall. [Sniff!]

  3. #93
    Rinkside
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
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    Country: Canada

    1 Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by blancanieves View Post
    Here's why I sustain the world medal "was theirs" prior to the fall. Up until the fall they were on par to wind up at least third, the TES tracker looked good, and reviewing the protocols the GOEs for their elements were good. There were only two required elements left to complete before the fall, the twizzle sequence which (unfortunately) immediately transitioned into the diagonal step sequence. The first step sequence (circular) had already occurred earlier in the program, and it'd earned a L4 and 10.80 points, the second highest mark for that element in the FD event. V/M's diagonal step sequence garnered 10.94 points.

    The fall happens, and because the 1st set of twizzles isn't completed, the whole element is thrown out and they get 0 points in combined Base Value/GOE for it. That wiped out 6.60/5.60 points in base value for L4/L3 twizzles, plus at least .51 points in GOE, which is the most modest GOE for completed twizzles by the top 10, the highest being 1.80 points. For reference, H/D had the highest twizzle sequence score in the SD (8.23 points, BV 6.60, GOE 1.63). They're not weak "twizzlers."

    The debacle with the twizzles happens and the judges were probably still in shock as H/D go into the diagonal step sequence. Even though it gets a decent 1.73 in GOE, the sequence gets called a L2. This means a loss of at least 1.50 points in BV had they received a L3, which is within their usual range.

    A bare bones estimate of points lost* comes out to, let's say, 8.61 (5.60 + .51 + 1.50 + 1 mandatory fall deduction point), and the difference in total scores between 3rd (185.18) and 9th (177.70) was 7.48 points. The fall cost them the bronze.

    But, the quality of their skating is not going to suddenly disappear, disappointment or not. I'm excited to see what they do this season.


    P.S. *and excluding any impact the fall may have had in PCS
    I would also mention that they have the best coaches to help them come back from the emotional experience of the World Championships. Dubreuil/Lauzon had that terrible fall at the 2006 Olympics when they were in position to win a medal and then they came back at the World Championships and won the silver.

  4. #94
    Tripping on the Podium
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    Dec 2012
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    1 Not allowed!
    I hope Madi and Zach will have a redemption season next year, after the unfortunate FD in the Worlds. They are my favorite team and I want them to win all things!

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