2016-2017 State of U.S. Ice Dance

I agree, 4CCs next year will be a must-watch for US ice dance fans. It could really give a lot of momentum to whoever wins.

It will also be interesting to see if McNamara/Carpenter and the Parsons stick with their Wheaton team long-term. There might be pressure to leave and go to a different coach with a strong reputation at the senior level.

I have to add, I've been looking forward to seeing the Greens on the JGP circuit for at least a year and a half now, and it's very weird for me to be so excited about a team so early on.

Have M/C or the Parsons coaches ever had any success with Senior ice dance teams? As it is they seem to keep their teams Junior untill they age out even when it's obvious that they should challenge themselves and move up like M/C should have done after they won everything in 2015-16. M/C had nothing to gain and everything to lose staying in Juniors yet again and it cost them while a team like P/B moved up and finished in the top 4 in their first season as Seniors.

I don't think WISA has had senior teams period. They started out as coaches for kids in 2003 and have now built up a big junior stable. So taking Parsons and M/C to seniors will be the first for them.

M/C may have had their own reasons for staying junior. It definitely seems like a tactical error, but perhaps their sudden inconsistency came from outside factors which is why they stayed junior. I really don't know. They've definitely hurt their reputation, but they're young and talented and can still fight back.

For what its worth, I read a lot of doom and gloom about how P/B were going to completely flop at seniors and that it was a huge mistake to move them up now. Perhaps M/C didn't feel ready, I don't know.

I've heard that both M/C and Parsons have received offers from top coaches but have declined them for now.

Yes, it'll be great to see the Greens compete internationally. I'm looking forward to seeing how they're received and how fast they can gain traction. Additionally, while I was poking around the WISA website, I noticed that they have a new team listed in juniors, Isabella Amoia and Luca Becker. Isabella Amoia was 5th in Novices this year with Cory Fraiman, and I quite liked the Beckers and wondered what happened to them, so I'm glad to see him back, at least

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There were also people who predicted that McNamara & Carpenter and the Parsons would have to leave their coaches in order to move up into the senior ranks; but that does not appear to be the case as both teams are now listed on the Wheaton site as senior teams.

Intriguingly in my opinion, it is not only Novak & Kiliakov who appear to be breaking into different age levels at U.S. Nationals. Camerlengo was with the new intermediate dance champions at Nationals (she was in Canton before). He had a junior team as well. And intermediate silver medalist, Jeffrey Chen, had Zoueva listed as a coach on his Ice Partner Search profile. His profile has recently been taken down, fyi. I hope someone good snapped him up.

Igor also had the intermediate bronze medallists, the Brykalovs, in addition to Carreira/Ponomarenko and Lewis/Bye in juniors.

But otherwise, the WISA coaches really dominated juniors and below. I think everyone is very interested in how M/C and Parsons take to seniors, as it will be the first time that Novak/Kiliakov have had senior teams. I'm almost as excited for 4CC as I am the actual Olympics!

I do wonder if there will be any retirements post 2018, or if there's going to be a huge bottleneck. US is certainly not lacking in dance talent, that much was obvious watching Nationals at the lower levels.

chameleon said:

But otherwise, the WISA coaches really dominated juniors and below. I think everyone is very interested in how M/C and Parsons take to seniors, as it will be the first time that Novak/Kiliakov have had senior teams. I'm almost as excited for 4CC as I am the actual Olympics!

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WISA really dominated the ranks below last year. This year, their intermediate teams finished 4th & 6th and Tkachenko & Kiliakov finished fourth in novices. It feels like Igor has always been watching the younger teams at Nationals (in juniors & occasionally a top a novice team). But it's interesting that we are seeing him, Camerlengo, & Zoueva all now attached to athletes as young as intermediates. I wonder if it is, if fact, related to the fact that Wheaton is now moving up into seniors. With those top young teams staying together & staying put, not as many top young U.S. dancers are likely to funnel directly to Detroit. Perhaps the elite coaches are seeing the benefit of starting early. Or, at least in a couple cases, perhaps these particular young dance teams just have unique family connections with the elite coaches.

I think Igor has always been interested in training younger teams, he's coached quite a few juniors this quad, and he often works part time with novice teams. He worked with both Carreira and Ponomarenko in their previous partnerships as novices before they moved to Michigan full time and teamed up, and I think he also worked with Lewis/Bye before they moved to Novi as well.

It's definitely possible the top Detroit coaches are trying to eye up talent earlier, since Wheaton has a lot of the younger talents, who seem loyal(although Elliana Pogrebinsky trained with them before moving to Igor in 2014 and teaming up with Alex Benoit, so its not like no one could be persuaded, eapecially if offered the right partner). In the case of Jeffrey Chen, I wondered if perhaps this signalled a future coaching change for Karen and they were a package deal, since when Marina and Igor coached together it was known that while Igor really enjoyed working with juniors and lower, Marina was not a fan. Or perhaps she was just interested in his talent and wanted a young US team, and had little success trying to persuade current teams.

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It would not be correct to believe that these young teams/dancers were chosen by Igor,Marina and Camerlengo for their exceptional talent. It is parents' drive, money and connections that landed them there. There is nothing bad about it but i would have not over analyze it.

chameleon said:

I think Igor has always been interested in training younger teams,

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Shpilband started out in the mid-1990s with novice teams such as Joseph/Butler and Silverstein/Pekarek (the first two US junior world champion teams) as well as senior and junior teams. Some skaters or already-formed teams came to him after years of experience as ice dancers; others he brought up from developmental levels.

Danielle and Alex Gamelin trained at WISA for their first two seasons as seniors, and then moved elsewhere. So Kiliakov et al. have trained one senior team in the past, but not at a world level.

chameleon said:

In the case of Jeffrey Chen, I wondered if perhaps this signalled a future coaching change for Karen and they were a package deal, since when Marina and Igor coached together it was known that while Igor really enjoyed working with juniors and lower, Marina was not a fan. Or perhaps she was just interested in his talent and wanted a young US team, and had little success trying to persuade current teams.

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As Marina does choreography & helps with polishing, Karen's connection could just be related to choreography. Karen was in Canton prior to Worlds.

Katarina Wolfkostin, who teamed up with Howard Zhao & won gold this season in intermediates under Camerlengo, was training at Canton previously with an earlier dance partner. It is obviously more unusual to see Marina & Camerlengo with the young teams. That's why I mentioned them in my initial post. In general, I think it's nice to see the top coaches and/or their staff expanding into different age levels--be it Novak & Kiliakov moving up into seniors or other coaches working with younger athletes. I'm sure they are all plenty busy!

I think it is safe to say the current top three teams short of an injury will go to the olympics. i suspect it will be a battle and the Shibsibs having been the top team for two years running have the edge but the short dance is not favorable to them though I anticipate a cheeky fun comedic sd. I think the oly bronze is reserved for one of the three Americans. I don't think the judges will allow Canada to win two medals in dance. I can't see any of the three teams winning OGM unless the French and V and M get injured, don't skate or fall several times. This will ensure the mighty USA gets a medal for sure in skating at the Olympics.

Skater Boy said:

I think it is safe to say the current top three teams short of an injury will go to the olympics. i suspect it will be a battle and the Shibsibs having been the top team for two years running have the edge but the short dance is not favorable to them though I anticipate a cheeky fun comedic sd. I think the oly bronze is reserved for one of the three Americans. I don't think the judges will allow Canada to win two medals in dance. I can't see any of the three teams winning OGM unless the French and V and M get injured, don't skate or fall several times. This will ensure the mighty USA gets a medal for sure in skating at the Olympics.

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I am not so sure. The powers that be might like the idea of supporting a young up and coming "they are the future" team. How much longer are the top three going to be around really? A full quad each? Not so sure about that. The USFSA might want one star on the rise in the mix. I think if any of the young teams really come out swinging next season they have a shot. I would love to see H/D at the Olympics, but I am not sure their spot is as secure as the other top two teams.

StitchMonkey said:

I am not so sure. The powers that be might like the idea of supporting a young up and coming "they are the future" team. How much longer are the top three going to be around really? A full quad each? Not so sure about that. The USFSA might want one star on the rise in the mix. I think if any of the young teams really come out swinging next season they have a shot. I would love to see H/D at the Olympics, but I am not sure their spot is as secure as the other top two teams.

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I don't know, Hubbell/Donahue have been improving leaps and bounds. They do seem prone to silly --- sometimes really costly, in the case of Worlds FD -- mistakes, but if they can get rid fo those, they are sincerely a threat. And honestly while I like Hawayek/Baker a lot, unless they have a '96 Kwan transformation, I don't see them suddenly unseating any of the top three.

People were saying a few years ago the "team of the future" was going to unseat the Shibutanis when they were struggling. That hasn't happened yet.

That said, the Shibutanis DID get silver (and obviously world bronze) in their first year on the circuit... but I think there were some major openings that aren't really there right now.

Mrs. P said:

I don't know, Hubbell/Donahue have been improving leaps and bounds. They do seem prone to silly --- sometimes really costly, in the case of Worlds FD -- mistakes, but if they can get rid fo those, they are sincerely a threat. And honestly while I like Hawayek/Baker a lot, unless they have a '96 Kwan transformation, I don't see them suddenly unseating any of the top three.

People were saying a few years ago the "team of the future" was going to unseat the Shibutanis when they were struggling. That hasn't happened yet.

That said, the Shibutanis DID get silver (and obviously world bronze) in their first year on the circuit... but I think there were some major openings that aren't really there right now.

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I don't think it is just Hawayek/Baker that are a threat is the thing. There are several teams that could challenge them if they have a great season. That is why I don't think they are that secure. Maybe each only has a 20% chance of making it, but when you have 5+ that have a 20% chance each of beating H/D... it just starts to not seem that far fetched. I would be much more shocked by Chock/Bates or the Shibs not on the team than I would H/D.

I agree that they are improving and I expect them to continue. I don't think they will be held back, nor am is saying i expect to see boosting of other teams. But if it is close... well the tie breaker could go to the younger team. I want to see H/D go i just don't think it is a done deal yet.

StitchMonkey said:

I don't think it is just Hawayek/Baker that are a threat is the thing. There are several teams that could challenge them if they have a great season. That is why I don't think they are that secure. Maybe each only has a 20% chance of making it, but when you have 5+ that have a 20% chance each of beating H/D... it just starts to not seem that far fetched. I would be much more shocked by Chock/Bates or the Shibs not on the team than I would H/D.

I agree that they are improving and I expect them to continue. I don't think they will be held back, nor am is saying i expect to see boosting of other teams. But if it is close... well the tie breaker could go to the younger team. I want to see H/D go i just don't think it is a done deal yet.

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I think the fact Hubbell and Donahue finished third after the SD at Worlds indicate their position is pretty secure. That medal was theirs had it not been for that unfortunate error. Certainly things can change (I don't think anyone would have predicted in May 2010 that the Shibutanis, who didn't even medal at Junior Worlds, would end up on the Worlds podium a year later). But right at the moment, I don't really see any team threatening the top 3.

Mrs. P said:

I think the fact Hubbell and Donahue finished third after the SD at Worlds indicate their position is pretty secure. That medal was theirs had it not been for that unfortunate error. Certainly things can change (I don't think anyone would have predicted in May 2010 that the Shibutanis, who didn't even medal at Junior Worlds, would end up on the Worlds podium a year later). But right at the moment, I don't really see any team threatening the top 3.

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The problem is that they did have the unfortunate error. Some skaters just have those kid of errors. I think that if they skate near their best they will be on the team, but if they skate at more like 85% of their best, someone at their best might beat them and I am not sure how much help they would get from the judges.

Let me ask it differently. Do you think their "body of work" would get them to the Olympics with a pewter? I think a pewter and body of work would be enough for the Shibs and Chock and Bates, but I think H/D still need a a great fall season to nail down their body of work argument.

StitchMonkey said:

The problem is that they did have the unfortunate error. Some skaters just have those kid of errors. I think that if they skate near their best they will be on the team, but if they skate at more like 85% of their best, someone at their best might beat them and I am not sure how much help they would get from the judges.

Let me ask it differently. Do you think their "body of work" would get them to the Olympics with a pewter? I think a pewter and body of work would be enough for the Shibs and Chock and Bates, but I think H/D still need a a great fall season to nail down their body of work argument.

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No, I don't think they have the "body of work" to get on the Olympic team, but I think, at this point, I'd put them at 90 percent odds that they will manage to get into the top 3. I think the battle will be more who will get the 4CC spots cause there are easily at least 4 teams that have a legitimate shot at them and there's only 3 of those spots too.

I'd be pretty surprised to see anyone other than S/S, C/B and H/D on the Olympic team baring injury. I like H/B, but they are just as prone to silly mistakes as H/D and currently H/D are solidly ahead, so I don't see them surpassing them next season. And I love P/P, but I don't think there's time for them to move ahead yet. H/D are solidly top ten even with a major error and mostly their errors aren't that bad, so 9th is essentially worst case. It's a bit much imo to expect P/P (or M/C) to match/surpass that in their first senior season.

Looking at JWC moving up to senior over the last several years:
2006 JWC - V/M were 6th at Worlds in 2007
2007 JWC - B/S were 13th in 2008
2008 JWC - Samuelson/Bates were 11th in 2009
2009 JWC - Chock/Zuerlein didn't make Worlds in 2010 and were 9th in 2011
2010 JWC - I/K were 7th in 2011
2011 JWC - Monko/Khaliavin were not at Worlds until 2015
2012 JWC - S/Z didn't make Worlds in 2013 and were 7th in 2014
2013 JWC - S/B didn't make Worlds in 2014 and were 9th in 2015
2014 JWC - H/B haven't made Worlds yet
2015 JWC - Yanovskaya/Mozgov didn't make Worlds and
2016 JWC - M/C didn't move up to senior

So since 2011, none of the teams have made Worlds in their first senior season, though before that they almost all did. Obviously V/M are a special team, youngest ever ID Olympic Champs, etc, so they shouldn't be used as a benchmark. And worth noting for Samuelson/Bates and Chock/Zuerlein, that US ID wasn't as deep at that point and C/Z still didn't make it, even with B/A skipping the post-Olympic worlds. S/B (the US ones) finished ahead of Navarro/Bommentre (no GP medals, no GPF, never top ten at Worlds) and Hubbell/Hubbell (still juniors) - not close to the current depth.

As for other notable teams transitioning to senior:
2006 JW bronze - D/W were 7th at Worlds in 2007
2007 JW bronze - W/P were 20th at Worlds in 2007 and 17th in 2008
2009 JW silver, 4th 2010 - Shibs won bronze at Worlds in 2011
2013 JW silver - P/C were 13th at Worlds in 2014

D/W are also not a benchmark since they were obviously special, P/C made Worlds but FRA has way less depth. Canada was not at all deep at that point with W/P either. Then there's the Shibs, who make it clear big breakthroughs are possible, but keep in mind that was the post Olympic season, where shakeups seem more possible. The Olympic season is not the same animal as the post-O season.

I would include Pogrebinsky/Benoit as another dark horse team with an outside shot at the Olympic or World team next season. They had a good senior debut season, improving with each competition and finishing fourth at nats. It's going to be fun watching Pog/Ben and the rookie teams challenge each other and the established seniors. Anything can happen. I don't think any of the top US teams can afford to rest on their laurels.

Mrs. P said:

I think the fact Hubbell and Donahue finished third after the SD at Worlds indicate their position is pretty secure. That medal was theirs had it not been for that unfortunate error. Certainly things can change (I don't think anyone would have predicted in May 2010 that the Shibutanis, who didn't even medal at Junior Worlds, would end up on the Worlds podium a year later). But right at the moment, I don't really see any team threatening the top 3.

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I don't see the top 3 going anywhere either. What was more surprising is that at the end of the season, even though the order at nationals was S/S, C/B, H/D, levels and PCS gave H/D the lead, then C/B and S/S. But then H/D were sometimes close to C/B in SD for example or beat them in GPF. Ans C/B beat shibs in the FD at nationals and in the SD at worlds.
I'm all for a nice battle at nationals I obvisouly have my preferences in these 3 teams but I like them all very much so ... Bring on the fight !
Just waiting for H/D FD music since we have the other 2.