Pandora’s Box?2017 4cc men's figure skating

Ice Dance · Feb 27, 2017

I don't think Hanyu's Cup of China performance is a particularly helpful comparison. I do think the PCS progression of his scores during the regular GP season through Worlds early in his career is helpful. It's quite common for a new athlete on the scene to have lower PCS until he/she proves him/herself. I'm never surprised when those athletes have scores that go up. It feels much less common to me to see PCS leap up more than 10 points mid-career as Hanyu's did during the 2013-2014 Season. Those kind of leaps are usually breakthroughs, which is why I remember it happening. Nathan's current PCS rise is somewhere in between. (He also entered the GP at age 17 while--if I'm doing the math correctly--Hanyu entered at 15).

Hanyu's PCS Progression From 1st GP event to Worlds

Note: I've estimated the rise in scores. Feel free to be more exact if you wish.

2010-2011
Rostelecom SP 32.38, LP 66.22
NHK Trophy SP 37.85, LP 65.84
Four Continents SP 35.67, LP 73.38

SP rise @3.3 points
LP rise @7.1 points

2011-2012
Rostelecom SP 37.58, LP 78.38
Cup of China SP 36.44, LP 74.36
Grand Prix Final SP 36.07, LP 79.28
Worlds SP 38.39, LP 83.00

SP rise @0.75 points
LP rise @4.6

2012-2013
Skate America SP 43.36, LP 79.56
NHK SP 42.28, LP 78.78
GPF SP 41.41, LP 85.16
4CCs SP 43.43, LP 81.78
Worlds SP 40.82, LP 80.00

SP fall -0.4 Worlds SP was a problem.
LP rise @0.4

2013-2014
Skate Canada SP 40.71, LP 76.86
Eric Bompard SP 42.65, LP 81.94
GPF SP 45.32, LP 92.38
Olympics SP 46.61, LP 90.98
Worlds SP 45.5, LP 91.42

SP rise 4.8
LP rise 13.5 points

Nathan

TDF SP 41.11, LP 79.36
NHK SP 40.39, LP 84.06
GPF SP 40.68, LP 84.42
4CCs SP 43.54, LP 88.86

SP rise 2.4 points
LP rise 9.5 points

gsyzf · Feb 27, 2017

If you look back at the rise of Hanyu and Uno's PCS, you will notice that Chen's PCS rise in fact isn't any different from their PCS increase. Before Sochi, Hanyu's PCS went from high 70s, to low 80s, to mid 80s and to 92+. At GPF2013, many fans were complaining about Hanyu being overscored and his PCS was too close to Chan's. His PCS was only 2 points lower than Chan's and he had a fall in the LP. (Hanyu's GPF2013 win was in fact very similar to Chen's 4CC2017 win. Hanyu had a clean SP while Chan screwed up his SP. Hanyu had a near clean LP while Chan also had a near clean LP except one pop. Hanyu won overall. He even won the LP with a fall. Hanyu's PCS shot up from 87 to 92+.) His Romeo & Juilet 2 was hated even by his fans, his posture was not good back then and he often looked tired throughout the performance due to the high tech demand. By the time of Sochi, his PCS was only 1 point less than Chan's despite falling twice.

I know many fans don't want to accept this. But by the time of the Olympics, the PCS gap between medal contenders will be even smaller, so whoever skates the the most difficult programs with the cleanest execution will win. Judges are closing the PCS and GOE gap of top skaters/medal contenders. Judges won't let a flawed performance with super high PCS win over a much cleaner performance at the Olympics. (If that happens, it will be the biggest scandal in figure skating history. No judges dare to do that at the Olympics when the whole world is watching them and scrutinizing every score they hand out.)

Mrs. P · Feb 27, 2017

Li'Kitsu said:
I really, really hope Boyang stays with 4 quads and leaves the 4Loop at least for next season (or better, the season after that). It would disrupt the improvements he made in the non-jump aspects of his skating, which are making him so much more enjoyable to watch. He had a plan going into this season, and I think the best thing for his overall improvement is to stick to that.

In other news, Shoma has decided to add the 4S to his LP. And I'd say this is as much a result of 'others doing more' - and even more so the way the judges award these high quad number skates - as Boyangs 5 quad LP was. And personally (though I'm not a Shoma fan, so maybe my opinion doesn't matter) I'd rather have Shoma continue focus on the whole picture more than also going the 'absolute main focus on jumps' route.

And yes, I don't want Yuzu to go for 5 quads either. With that amount of tech, somethings got to give, and I'd rather not have that.

One of the things I like about the men's field is that it can accommodate a variety of styles and strategies. I hope that doesn't change in the future.

ETA: Regarding Yuzu PCS scores, he didn't get it by adding five quads though. He made visible improvement in PCS especially from 2012-2013. People forget that Hanyu, due to his asthma, had a major stamina problem. That's why he was basically not a shooting star in his early senior days (mostly in 2010-2011 -- didn't make the world team-- and the first part of the 2011-2012 season). Give Brian Orser credit -- Yuzu had a lot of talent, but Brian really did up his game. I remember seeing him at Skate America 2012 in person and super amazed at awesome that SP was....I loved R&J 1.0, but this SP was just PACKED with transitions, choreo and other amazingness. Of course he was a hot mess in the FS, because he still had stamina issues and it was a packed FS, but you get my point.

I think it's sort of cool that we don't even talk about his stamina any more...that's how much better of a skater he is now, compared to then.

gsyzf · Feb 27, 2017

Mrs. P said:
ETA: Regarding Yuzu PCS scores, he didn't get it by adding five quads though. He made visible improvement in PCS especially from 2012-2013. People forget that Hanyu, due to his asthma, had a major stamina problem. That's why he was basically not a shooting star in his early senior days (mostly in 2010-2011 -- didn't make the world team-- and the first part of the 2011-2012 season). Give Brian Orser credit -- Yuzu had a lot of talent, but Brian really did up his game. I remember seeing him at Skate America 2012 in person and super amazed at awesome that SP was....I loved R&J 1.0, but this SP was just PACKED with transitions, choreo and other amazingness. Of course he was a hot mess in the FS, because he still had stamina issues and it was a packed FS, but you get my point.

I think it's sort of cool that we don't even talk about his stamina any more...that's how much better of a skater he is now, compared to then.

But that's the same with Chen. Chen is better in the SP than in the FS. Before Sochi, Hanyu's FS PCS was just twice his SP PCS even though his execution and performance in the FS was much worse than in the SP and even his fans hated both of his NDP and RJ2.

I still don't see how that's any different from Chen's PCS increase. You can't say that Chen made no improvement in the SP PCS. Hanyu's FS PCS didn't rise because he performed better in the FS. He was often tired throughout the FS performance and he fell very often in the FS due to his struggle with 4S. His FS PCS just rose because he became a medal contender.

Interspectator · Feb 27, 2017

Mrs. P said:
One of the things I like about the men's field is that it can accommodate a variety of styles and strategies. I hope that doesn't change in the future.

ETA: Regarding Yuzu PCS scores, he didn't get it by adding five quads though. He made visible improvement in PCS especially from 2012-2013. People forget that Hanyu, due to his asthma, had a major stamina problem. That's why he was basically not a shooting star in his early senior days (mostly in 2010-2011 -- didn't make the world team-- and the first part of the 2011-2012 season). Give Brian Orser credit -- Yuzu had a lot of talent, but Brian really did up his game. I remember seeing him at Skate America 2012 in person and super amazed at awesome that SP was....I loved R&J 1.0, but this SP was just PACKED with transitions, choreo and other amazingness. Of course he was a hot mess in the FS, because he still had stamina issues and it was a packed FS, but you get my point.

I think it's sort of cool that we don't even talk about his stamina any more...that's how much better of a skater he is now, compared to then.

ITA about Yuzu's (and his teams) approach to his skating when going to Brian.
He did NOT leave out the transitions, choreography (whether it was good or not is beside the point) SS or the spacing of his elements in the program -there was neither front-loading or back-loading. It was all there, nothing left out. Though it did result is messy free skates. Would it have been better for him to empty his programs and front-load so as to do all the jumps clean-ish instead? I don't think a cleaner but emptier program would or should have gotten the same PCS.

GraceYee · Feb 27, 2017

Any changes that ISU make are intended to make the figure skating more attractive and better in the future,and this need not only mean raising the technical difficulty of a single jump (Mr. Chen's Landing quads with no flow and going into quads with long set-ups.......Look at Mr. Chen and Boyang's LP, in fact, the pursuit of the difficulty of a single jump has produced a very bad effect, it ruins the flow of the program.),switching to focusing on the balance of all the elements in the program,which will be full of beauty and a sense of stimulation ,not only the latter.A number of skaters with great expressive potential but get stuck on jumping will also have the power to bring us more beautiful programs.

Why Boyang's goe and PCs have been so low compared to Mr. Chen?
In my opinion,much of this ,looks far less like a way to push the men’s figure skating,and a good deal more like a special strategy to help Mr. Chen win medals.

gsyzf · Feb 27, 2017

Interspectator said:
ITA about Yuzu's (and his teams) approach to his skating when going to Brian.
He did NOT leave out the transitions, choreography (whether it was good or not is beside the point) SS or the spacing of his elements in the program -there was neither front-loading or back-loading. It was all there, nothing left out. Though it did result is messy free skates. Would it have been better for him to empty his programs and front-load so as to do all the jumps clean-ish instead? I don't think a cleaner but emptier program would or should have gotten the same PCS.

It depends on what you prefer to see. Do you prefer to see a clean but emptier program or do you prefer to see a messy, filled with falls but more packed programs? Do you prefer to see Sochi splatfest and GPF2016 splatfest again? Which performance left you most impressed? Chen and Uno's FS at GPF2016? or Hanyu, Fernandez and Chan's messy FS at GPF2016?

karne · Feb 27, 2017

Great. Now this thread is completely ruined, as such threads usually are when Hanyu is brought into them.

Interspectator · Feb 27, 2017

gsyzf said:
It depends on what you prefer to see. Do you prefer to see a clean but emptier program or do you prefer to see a messy, filled with falls but more packed programs? Do you prefer to see Sochi splatfest and GPF2016 splatfest again? Which performance left you most impressed? Chen and Uno's FS at GPF2016? or Hanyu, Fernandez and Chan's messy FS at GPF2016?

I prefer to see everyone do their best, but for the judging to be consistent. If there is to be a PCS boost for doing quads, I'd like it to be written in the criteria, if there isn't then I'd like it to be true for all the skaters. If the PCS criteria are not even followed and the judges look at the performances as a whole, then I don't see the need for the criteria to be there at all.

Li'Kitsu · Feb 27, 2017

Ice Dance said:
I don't think Hanyu's Cup of China performance is a particularly helpful comparison. I do think the PCS progression of his scores during the regular GP season through Worlds early in his career is helpful. It's quite common for a new athlete on the scene to have lower PCS until he/she proves him/herself. I'm never surprised when those athletes have scores that go up. It feels much less common to me to see PCS leap up more than 10 points mid-career as Hanyu's did during the 2013-2014 Season. Those kind of leaps are usually breakthroughs, which is why I remember it happening. Nathan's current PCS rise is somewhere in between. (He also entered the GP at age 17 while--if I'm doing the math correctly--Hanyu entered at 15).

Hanyu's PCS Progression From 1st GP event to Worlds

Note: I've estimated the rise in scores. Feel free to be more exact if you wish.

2010-2011
Rostelecom SP 32.38, LP 66.22
NHK Trophy SP 37.85, LP 65.84
Four Continents SP 35.67, LP 73.38

SP rise @3.3 points
LP rise @7.1 points

2011-2012
Rostelecom SP 37.58, LP 78.38
Cup of China SP 36.44, LP 74.36
Grand Prix Final SP 36.07, LP 79.28
Worlds SP 38.39, LP 83.00

SP rise @0.75 points
LP rise @4.6

2012-2013
Skate America SP 43.36, LP 79.56
NHK SP 42.28, LP 78.78
GPF SP 41.41, LP 85.16
4CCs SP 43.43, LP 81.78
Worlds SP 40.82, LP 80.00

SP fall -0.4 Worlds SP was a problem.
LP rise @0.4

2013-2014
Skate Canada SP 40.71, LP 76.86
Eric Bompard SP 42.65, LP 81.94
GPF SP 45.32, LP 92.38
Olympics SP 46.61, LP 90.98
Worlds SP 45.5, LP 91.42

SP rise 4.8
LP rise 13.5 points

Nathan

TDF SP 41.11, LP 79.36
NHK SP 40.39, LP 84.06
GPF SP 40.68, LP 84.42
4CCs SP 43.54, LP 88.86

SP rise 2.4 points
LP rise 9.5 points

The way you're focusing on only first and last competition of the season to determine the trajectory of the PCS is majorly influencing how it looks - basically, it's a determining factor in making it look a lot closer to Nathans PCS rise now than it actually is.

First, his 'breakthrough' season was 2011-12. Look at what PCS he got there and how over the whole season they climbed half of what Nathans did now (and this season isn't even over).
If you want to argue for the 2013-14 season as his breakthrough season, okay. But then take into consideration that his PB was a lot higher than the PCS he got at the beginning of the season. And rightfully so, given his first skates of the season usually suck. Compared to his PB, the scores went up by 3.18 & 7.22 - and I'd say comparing PBs makes a lot more sense, if you're trying to look at it from a 'what are the judges willing to give this skater' perspective? But that difference is with all the improvement he made throughout a whole year including the off-season. And still aren't these numbers smaller than Nathans only this season? So Nathan improved more from just TDF this season to 4CC than Yuzuru did in a whole year from December 2012 to December 2013? Sorry, but (surprise) I really don't agree with that.

gsyzf · Feb 27, 2017

Interspectator said:
I prefer to see everyone do their best, but for the judging to be consistent. If there is to be a PCS boost for doing quads, I'd like it to be written in the criteria, if there isn't then I'd like it to be true for all the skaters. If the PCS criteria are not even followed and the judges look at the performances as a whole, then I don't see the need for the criteria to be there at all.

The criteria is listed there so different skaters can use different strategies to game the system and gain as many points as possible. There is no one way to gain points. What matters is that in however way you game the system, you need to play to your strength and give a good quality/clean performance so you can gain as many points as possible. Different skaters will use different strategies because they have different strengths. There will always be trade-off. If you want to gain something, you will have to give up something else. If you choose to do many quads, then land the quads, and your score will go up. Your PCS won't rise by planning many quads and fail half of the quads. If you plan to raise PCS by doing more transitions before or after jumps, then you need to land your jumps. Your PCS wont' rise by simply doing more transitions and fall all over the place. Whatever you choose to do, you need to execute your program with good quality, at least not with major mistakes.

I still think that many fans have their own idea about what's important to them. So they feel the only way someone deserves a score if that person's performance/layout satisfies his/her ideal. But there are more than one way to gain points.

el henry · Feb 27, 2017

Mrs. P said:
I think Boyang Jin, bless his heart, showed just how challenging that is. He really did try to incorporate more transitions and choreography this seasons and his overall consistency has suffered for it, which has caused for skepticism that Nathan can just "add transitions and artistry."

(And for the skate of devil's advocacy, the opposite -- adding jumps without affecting the integrity of PCS/programs is just as difficult. )

It was a bit disconcerting to me that Boyang decided to add the 4Loop after stating previously that he didn't want to add any more quads until he worked on the PCS side of things. I think, sadly, it was a response to seeing the other guys do more and more quads. I was glad to see him take it out at AWG, cause I think he fared much better without it.

Yes.:agree:

Last year, I was very hard on Boyang (as well as Nathan). But bless his heart, Boyang is trying, and I give him full credit. Who doesn't love Spideyboyang? Now, will it ever be my fav program, no ... but he is trying to broaden his horizons. And I applaud it.

Li'Kitsu · Feb 27, 2017

gsyzf said:
The criteria is listed there so different skaters can use different strategies to game the system and gain as many points as possible.

I still think that many fans have their own idea about what's important to them. So they feel the only way someone deserves a score if that person's performance/layout satisfies his/her ideal. But there are more than one way to gain points.

This is ironic, because it is exactly the opposite of what you're arguing otherwise.

If the judges raise the GOE & PCS for high BV performances anyway, it has no value to focus on the things that raise GOE and PCS. You're not getting rewarded for it over the high BV skate, but you're also not getting the high BV - you will lose against the high BV person if they skate well no matter what you do. It follows that focusing on GOE & PCS is not a strategy to win anymore. The only strategy to win is raise BV, no matter the rest. That is exactly the problem.

Mathman · Feb 27, 2017

Li'Kitsu said:
...you will lose against the high BV person if they skate well no matter what you do.

This is true. It is a simple statement of fact.

Li'Kitsu · Feb 27, 2017

Mathman said:
This is true. It is a simple statement of fact.

But it shouldn't be, because even if you skate your planned layout well, just because you have high difficulty planned you should not get higher GOE or PCS if you don't meet those criteria too. Skating clean does not mean your GOE or PCS should be +3's and 10's. In GOE the standard is a 0. It is a 0 for a reason. Someone with better quality on their technical elements should be able to make up difference in BV.

gladiolusc · Feb 27, 2017

Li'Kitsu said:
This is ironic, because it is exactly the opposite of what you're arguing otherwise.

If the judges raise the GOE & PCS for high BV performances anyway, it has no value to focus on the things that raise GOE and PCS. You're not getting rewarded for it over the high BV skate, but you're also not getting the high BV - you will lose against the high BV person if they skate well no matter what you do. It follows that focusing on GOE & PCS is not a strategy to win anymore. The only strategy to win is raise BV, no matter the rest. That is exactly the problem.

The problem is the high-BV skater doesn't really have to "skate well". Instead, as long as he sticks his landings somewhat, there will be an automatic increase in GOE & PCS for that skater (regardless of what's written in the rulebooks), and there's no chance for someone with an alternative strategy to win by earning the PCS (good skating skills, well composed and balanced program, varied and well-placed transitions, etc) or GOE (by executing elements that cover 4-6 bullet points). So yes, given how judges score inconsistently across skaters, I agree that it seems the only strategy to win is to raise the BV. :/

Li'Kitsu · Feb 27, 2017

gladiolusc said:
The problem is the high-BV skater doesn't really have to "skate well". Instead, as long as he sticks his landings somewhat, there will be an automatic increase in GOE & PCS for that skater (regardless of what's written in the rulebooks), and there's no chance for someone with an alternative strategy to win by earning the PCS (good skating skills, well composed and balanced program, varied and well-placed transitions, etc) or GOE (by executing elements that cover 4-6 bullet points).

I should have made this clearer: when I said 'skate well', I only meant the minimum of landing stuff. Not falling, popping, stepping out on every jump. Just because someone lands his jumps doesn't mean they should be getting high GOE - if the bullet points aren't fulfilled. I'd guess we agree on that, it just didn't come across enough.

gsyzf · Feb 27, 2017

Li'Kitsu said:
This is ironic, because it is exactly the opposite of what you're arguing otherwise.

If the judges raise the GOE & PCS for high BV performances anyway, it has no value to focus on the things that raise GOE and PCS. You're not getting rewarded for it over the high BV skate, but you're also not getting the high BV - you will lose against the high BV person if they skate well no matter what you do. It follows that focusing on GOE & PCS is not a strategy to win anymore. The only strategy to win is raise BV, no matter the rest. That is exactly the problem.

A program with no major mistakes like falls, have better overall quality than a program with 1 or more falls. A significant differentiation in GOE & PCS allows a skater to win with flawed skaters over much cleaner skates as long as he/she lands some jumps (not all jumps) with excellent quality. That's how so many controversies happened in the last Olympic cycles. Many competitions were all won with very flawed performances over cleaner performances.

After Vancouver, the ISU reduced deductions to encourage men attempt quads. The result was many splatfest competitions. After Sochi splatfest and COC splats, the priority now is cleanliness. Clean performances are rewarded more than a messy performances that include a few excellent quality elements. If you want men attempt quads, and reward clean performances, you will have to give up high quality. That's the trade off. The only way to reward high quality is to increase the deduction of major mistakes like falls, which will discourage men from attempting so many quads. But that will only happen after 2018. Right now, you need high BV to win because no top skaters will be saved by significant GOE & PCS advantage when they mess up.

gsyzf · Feb 27, 2017

unico said:
There exists such things as national/cultural bias or concerted efforts to undermark or overmark which go beyond "subjectivity". Not saying it happened here (although the American judge giving higher PCS to Chen than Hanyu is noteworthy), but it exists, so this argument isn't bulletproof. See: 2002 Olympics.

The point isn't that people are completely objective when watching live, but that you're getting the purest and closest view point similar to the judges when you're able to watch live, therefore you're able to make assessments that cameras hide or exacerbate, especially things like speed and ice coverage. Because of that, your view is more objective than your view watching through cameras. Of course nobody is completely objective but you can get closer to it with live viewing, so live reports can be really informative.

National/cultural bias is subjective. Any kind of bias is subject to that person's preference & value. Collusion, vote-trading or bloc judging is different from national bias.

If you read live reports of different individuals, they often give you conflicting reports, e.g. Fan A thinks Skater B is slow and fan C thinks Skate B is fast and they both watch the same competition live. Also, not every fans cares about or is sensitive to speed & ice coverages. Some people just pay attention to other quality of the skater and does't even notice much speed or ice coverage difference. A person's live experience depends largely on what that person cares about.

TGee · Feb 27, 2017

gsyzf said:
The only way to reward high quality is to increase the deduction of major mistakes like falls, which will discourage men from attempting so many quads.

This is only true if you believe IJS is and must be stuck in a 6.0 notion of 'artistic impression' that is leg-shackled to the technical score. :gaah:

Yes, I know there are folks out there who are nostalgic for 6.0.

I'm so very NOT. Only reason I watch skating again is that 6.0 is gone. And I would not sit watching my kids skate session after session if I didn't know that they will never be subjected to 6.0.

IJS program component scoring was intended to break the 6.0 concept of the second mark being dependent on the first. There are sub-elements, and they are not and should not be meant to be marked as a whole..... And if a judge can't see that there is an enormous difference in speed, variation in speed, edge quality and transitions...that is separate from interpretation of the music [which has nothing to do with how many rotations a jump has], composition and performance, then reflection, discussion and perhaps retraining is needed.

So, the solution isn't just to 'fix' the TES so the PCS won't be so high, for me a key element in restoring credibility and transparency in IJS will be to restore the concept of independent scoring of PCS.

Pandora’s Box?2017 4cc men's figure skating

Ice Dance

gsyzf

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

gsyzf

Interspectator

GraceYee

gsyzf

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode

Interspectator

Li'Kitsu

gsyzf

el henry

Go have some cake. And come back with jollity.

Li'Kitsu

Mathman

Li'Kitsu

gladiolusc

Li'Kitsu

gsyzf

gsyzf

TGee

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