Grand Prix 2017-18 News and Chat | Golden Skate

Grand Prix 2017-18 News and Chat

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
It's never too early :rofl:

Now that we're officially in the off season it's time to talk about who's guaranteed grand prix spots, who may get them, and how things are unfolding until we finally get more official news in just 3-4 very short months :D

I'll post a dance analysis to start us off in a few minutes :)

ETA: Event dates and order have been announced.

Cup of Russia October 20-22, 2017
Skate Canada October 27-29, 2017
Cup of China November 3-5, 2017
NHK Trophy (Japan) November 10-12, 2017
France November 17-19, 2017
Skate America November 24-26, 2017
GP Final in Japan December 7-10, 2017
 
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puremagic

-
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 14, 2016
I've heard rumors that Russia could lose Rostelecom Cup 2017 and also European Championship 2018. Hope not. But who knows.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Ice Dance Analysis

Dance has (probably) 60 spots like last year. I don't/won't account for host picks separately because they are VERY hard to predict and a large percentage of the time they actually do come from people who are either already guaranteed a spot or very likely to have gotten one anyway, but in the bottom section I do point out a few skaters likely to be helped by host picks, and it's worth remembering that host picks exist and might impact the bottom section of skaters in this unofficial analysis (the ones who aren't guaranteed any spots) and their likelihood of getting spots.

Teams Guaranteed 2 spots because of their World Championships Placement
-20 spots taken, 2 each to each of the top teams (the numbers before their names are meant to show the spots they are taking, not their actual placement at the WC)

1-2. Virtue/Moir (CAN)
3-4. Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA)
5-6. Shibutanis (USA)
7-8. Weave/Poje (CAN)
9-10. Bobrova/Soloviev (RUS)
11-12. Cappellini/Lanotte (ITA)
13-14. Chock/Bates (USA)
15-16. Gilles/Poirier (CAN)
17-18. Hubbell/Donohue (USA)
19-20. Stepanova/Bukin (RUS)


Teams Guaranteed 1 Spot based on their placement in top 24 on the Seasons Best List
-14 additional teams
-While all these teams are technically only guaranteed one spot, since once additional spots become available they are filled by going down the SB list it's effectively certain that due to that and strong National politicking many of these teams will get two, which I've reflected in the spot allocation

21-22. Guignard/Fabri (ITA)
23-24. Tobias/Tkachenko (ISR)
25-26. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin (RUS)
27-28. Hawayek/Baker (USA)
29-30. Zagorski/Guerreiro (RUS)
31-32. Sinitsina/Katsalapov (RUS)
33-34. Pogrebinsky/Benoit (USA)
35-36. Parsons/Parsons (USA)
37-38. Loboda/Drozd (RUS)
39-40. Agfonova/Ucar (TUR)
41-42. Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen (DEN)
43-44. McNamara/Carpenter (USA)
45-46. Kaliszek/Spodyriev (POL) Again, will probably get 2, not absolutely sure though.

Teams Guaranteed a Spot because of their placement in the top 24 on the World Standings List
-Only 3 teams, but probably 5 spots will be taken

47. Coomes/Buckland (GBR)
48-49. Nazarova/Nikitin (UKR)- this guaranteed spot + their rank as 25 on SB list makes them likely to get 2
50-51. Wang/Liu (CHN)- high enough on SB list + host pick makes them very likely to end up with 2 spots

Other Skaters Not Guaranteed Spots
-This leaves 9 likely spots which will probably be filled by some combination of the following teams going down the SB list (unfortunately not all of them, some of them)

-Lorenz/Polizoakis (GER)
-Popova/Mozgov (RUS)
-Lauriault/LeGac (FRA) (strong contenders for 2 spots too, actually, once host pick and politicing are accounted for)
-Min/Gamelin (KOR)
-Muramoto/Reed (JPN)
-Jakushina/Nevskiy (LAT)
-Mansour/Ceska (CZE)
-Smart/Diaz (ESP)
-Koch/Nuchturn (GER)
-Galayavieva/Abecassis (FRA)

As always this is kind of complicated, it's not only possible but likely that I've made some mistakes. Let me know if you see anything wrong or that you think should/will be different.
 
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Anyasnake

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 28, 2016
V/M : Skate Canada
P/C : Trophee de France
Shibs : Skate America
B/S : Cup of Russia
and then no idea ...
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
I don't believe Carreira / Ponomarenko are moving up to the GP this year, since they have an excellent shot at the 2018 JW Championship.
 

Barb

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 13, 2009
The Parsons only have one event? same H/B, Skate America must to decide to who invite as their 2nd spot.
 
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tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
the Parsons have only 1 event? same H/B, Skate America must to decide to who invite as their 2nd spot.

While they're only guaranteed 1, practically speaking I believe both will get two. One will probably get the second through a host pick, but they are both high enough on the SB list that with 60 spots available, something REALLY weird would have to happen for either one to actually end up with one spot. Like, really weird. I honestly can't imagine it. I even think it's possible the USA would use the host pick on someone else, that's how sure I am they will both end up with 2.
 

puremagic

-
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 14, 2016
Any reason was said to that?

From here:

Russia will now not stage a number of winter sports events which were scheduled to be held in the country in the 2016/17 season, such as the Bob and Skeleton World Championships, the Biathlon Junior World Championships, the FIS Cross-Country World Cup Finals, the ISU World Cup Speed Skating and other major winter sports events including world cups.

It could also touch and 2017/2018. Russia already lost Bob and Skeleton World Championships.
 

Barb

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 13, 2009
What about Mao, she has not spot, right?.
I think NHK would invite her and probably China or France would like invite her too.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
What about Mao, she has not spot, right?.
I think NHK would invite her and probably China or France would like invite her too.

I can do the ladies if you all give me maybe 20 minutes. No one else do it in the meantime though, this is hard work :rofl:
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Ladies Analysis
Ladies have (probably) 72 spots like last year. I don't/won't account for host picks separately because they are VERY hard to predict and a large percentage of the time they actually do come from people who are either already guaranteed a spot or very likely to have gotten one anyway, but in the bottom section I do point out a few skaters likely to be helped by host picks, and it's worth remembering that host picks exist and might impact the bottom section of skaters in this unofficial analysis (the ones who aren't guaranteed any spots) and their likelihood of getting spots.

Ladies Guaranteed 2 spots because of their Worlds Placement
-24 spots taken, 2 each to each of the top ladies (the numbers before their names are meant to show the spots they are taking, not their actual placement at the WC)

1-2. Evgenia Medvedeva (RUS)
3-4. Katelyn Osmond (CAN)
5-6. Gabrielle Daleman (CAN)
7-8. Karen Chen (USA)
9-10. Mai Mihara (JPN)
11-12. Carolina Kostner (ITA)
13-14. Ashley Wagner (USA)
15-16. Maria Sotskova (RUS)
17-18. Elizabet Turnsynbaeva (KAZ)
19-20. Dabin Choi (KOR)
21-22. Wakaba Higuchi (JPN)
23-24. Mariah Bell (USA)

Ladies Guaranteed 1 Spot based on their palcement in top 24 on the Seasons Best List
-10 additional ladies, 20 spots will be taken
-While all these ladies are tehnically only guaranteed one spot, since once additional spots become available they are filled by going down the SB list it's effectively certain that due to that and strong National politicking all of these ladies will get two, which I've reflected in the spot allocation
-I basically assumed that in an Olympic year almost anyone who could move up would move up. If you know someone isn't, let me know and I'll edit, I don't follow the Jr Ladies all that closely

25-26. Satoko Miyahara (JPN)
27-28. Anna Pogorilyaya (RUS)
29-30. Alina Zagitova (RUS)
31-32. Elena Radionova (RUS)
33-34. Marin Honda (JPN)
35-36. Kaori Sakamoto (JPN)
37-38. Mirai Nagasu (USA)
39-40. Polina Tsurskaya (RUS)
41-42. Elizveta Tuktamysheva (RUS)
43-44. Alena Leonova (RUS) (may actually only get one or even none, we'll see what Russia does with her- she wouldn't be the first Russian forced out of any guaranteed spots if they end up thinking she can't cut it).

Ladies Guaranteed a Spot because of their placement in the top 24 on the World Standings List
-9 ladies. Several of these ladies are also nearly certain to get two due to a position relatively high on SB list and/or host spots that will be given to them if they can't get two another way

45-46. Rika Hongo (JPN) (2 spots not actually certain for her right now, lots of Japanese ladies out there, unlikely IMO to benefit from host spot but 36 on SB list should probably be high enough with one spot already guaranteed)
46-47. Gracie Gold (USA) (31 on SB list and USFSA would 100% give her the host spot if she couldn't get a spot another way)
48. Roberta Rodeghiero (ITA) (only 54 on SB list and no host spot available)
49. Kanako Murakami (JPN) (only 77 on SB list, host spot unlikely)
50-51. Soyoun Park (KOR) (30 on SB list should be enough to get her a second spot with this one guaranteed)
52. Angelina Kuchvalska (LAT) (only 66 on SB list)
53-54. Nicole Rajicova (SVK) (39 on SB list may or may not be enough to get her two spots, but I think probably yes with all the juniors on the SB list between 24 and 39)
55-56. Aline Chartrand (CAN) (29 on SB list + a host spot that would be given to her if it wasn't enough means she's pretty much guaranteed 2)
57-58. Laurine Lacavelier (FRA) (26 on SB list and also a host spot to fall back on)

This leaves 14 likely spots which will probably be filled by some combination of the following ladies going down the SB list (unfortunately not all of them, some of them)

-Stanislava Konstantinova (RUS)
-Mao Asada (JPN) (VERY strong possibility that JPN will use their host pick on her and this + being 28 on SB list will be enough for her to get 2 spots)
-Amber Glenn (USA)
-Courtney Hicks (USA)
-Zijun Li (CHN)
-Yura Matsuda (JPN)
-Serafima Sakhanovich (RUS)
-Nahyun Kim (KOR)
-Xianqning Li (CHN) (may well also be given host pick if certain rumors are true)
-Loena Hendrickx (BEL)
-Ivette Toth (HUN)
-Mae Bernice Meite (FRA) (if as expected Laurine can get 2 spots on her own it's very likely she'll receive the host pick at minimum)
-Bradie Tennell (USA)
-Nicole Schott (GER)
-Julia Lipnitskaia (RUS) (actually a decent shot at host pick if she's in decent form over the summer, RUS fed knows she puts butts in seats)
-Polina Edmunds (no chance of a spot on her own but a good shot of being USA's host pick)

As always this is kind of complicated, it's not only possible but likely that I've made some mistakes. Let me know if you see anything wrong or that you think should/will be different)
 
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tinnychan

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 13, 2015
World standings should consider after point reset instead of current one. After cut out 2014/15 season and 70% of 2015/16 season... The result will be different.
 
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