2017-2018 Olympic Team Russia - Predictions

1) For the start - let's figure out who's coming out from juniors.

Ladies: Alina Zagitova, Polina Tsurskaya, Stanislava Konstantinova (may be also Alisa Fedichkina)

Men: Dmitry Aliev, Lord Samarin.

I don't know about pairs and ice dance, but likely Ustimkina/Volodin and Boikova/Kozlovsky from pairs and likely Loboda/Drozd and Skoptcova/Aleshin from ice dance.

2) Let's check who we have in seniors now:

Ladies: Evgenia Medvedeva, Anna Pogorilaya, Elena Radionova, Maria Sotskova, Adelina Sotnikova, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Alena Leonova, Serafima Sakhanovich, Yulia Lipnitskaya.

Men: Mikhail Kolyada, Maxim Kovtun, Andrei Lazukin, Alexander Petrov, Sergei Voronov, Artur Jr. Dmitriev.

Pairs: Tarasova/Morozov, Stolbova/Klimov, Kavaguti/Smirnov, Zabiyako/Enbert, Astakhova/Rogonov, Volosozhar/Trankov.

3) I suggest to do it in two options: your wish and your real predict.

Ladies:

My wish: Evgenia, Alina and Polina.
My predict: Evgenia, Alina and Polina.

Considering circumstances I need to fix my predict concerning girls, but it's not easy.

My wish still the same: Evgenia, Alina, Polina
But my predict: Evgenia, Alina (if puberty won't hit her in the next season) and a mystery girl.

Anna Pogorilaya - don't know what to say. With well skate (not perfect) she lost at Nationals to Maria Sotskova (she also skated not perfect).
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva - I read her interview where she said that she's ready for the next season, and ready to show her best. Will see.
Elena Radionova and Maria Sotskova - both girls with Buyanova now. Her superpower should be taken into account. Masha and Radio now will have some boost even with mistakes at Russian Nationals.
Adelina Sotnikova - I'm not sure that Plushy can help her, but let's see. Her skating skills are incredible, and If she'll regain her jumps - all things could happen.
Stanislava Konstantinova - many people who saw her live said that she is super fast. Main question - will she cope with herself?
Polina Tsurskaya - it will be a miracle if Polina will cope with her disease and will start to show her best. But I won't stop hoping.
Dunya Panenkova - she is eligible for Olympics, if during the summer she will gain the speed in her skating and other girls will bomb at Nationals, then she has a chance.

What about Senior Ice Dance? Also, how many spots has Russia won in each discipline?


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I don't think that Ustimkina/Volodin or Boikova/Kozlovsky will move to seniors. They are still junior eligible, and they are not ready yet to move.

Bellaxx said:

What about Senior Ice Dance? Also, how many spots has Russia won in each discipline?


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Men and dance - 2
Ladies and pairs - 3

Bellaxx said:

What about Senior Ice Dance?

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I don't follow it, but all remains the same I guess: Bobrova/Soloviev, Bukins, Katsalapov/Sinitsyna, Ilyanyh/Zhiganshin, Zagorski/Gureiro. And as I said Loboda/Drozd and others.

Only one thing which I liked is Vasilisa Davankova's skating skills. Would be interesting to see her with Bukin.

I like now more Evdokimova/Bazin than Z/G and Kat/Sin... Don't know why. I think that half of views there is mine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RLQvaFWQ84&t=222s

hanca said:

I don't think that Ustimkina/Volodin or Boikova/Kozlovsky will move to seniors. They are still junior eligible, and they are not ready yet to move.

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Agree. Sad situation in Russian pairs. Since 2009 year Russian junior pairs skating has a curse. They had always 4-5 pairs in JGPF. It's impressive. But almost always it looked like:

JGPF:

1. Any country (China for example)
2. Russia
3. Russia
4. Russia
5. Russia
6. Russia

And at Junior Worlds they lost to Chinese, Americans, Canadians, Czechs, now to Australians. After 2009 year always second or lower place.

But it's fine if they produce more or less good pairs to the senior team. Main problem is - where is the top pairs?

Mishina/Mirzoev - splitted up. top pair.
Borisova/Sopot - splitted up, amazing pair elements, but no triple jumps.
Atakhanova/Spiridonov - great speed, joy to watch, but bad pair elements and inconsistent.
Boikova/Kozlovsky and Ustimkina/Volodin - average pairs to be honest.

I wouldn't see the Russian junior pair situation so bleak. There were two years that were transitional, with five the strongest junior pairs aging out and as those pairs were the ones who were on top for a few years, Russia had to start quickly creating some more.

It is a pity that out of those five stronger ones, only Tarasova-Morozov succesfully transitioned to seniors. Vygalova-Zakroev split up, Vygalova was quite a weak jumper and Zakroev wasted two years trying a number of 13 years old girls, hoping that it will work out better than Antipova worked for Maisuradze. Fedorova-Miroshkin also split up, she is a weak jumper and he was injured. Davankova- Deputat split up. To be fair, Davankova is a bit too tall for pairs. I have to admit that I expected better results from Deputat. He seemed to struggle with jumps as much as Bazarova did, and with Davankova his jumps were quite stable. Maybe it is catching? Gainedtinova-Bich also split up. Bich unfortunately partnered a skater who is new to pairs and I haven't seen much progress in the last two years. Saying that, there is a chance that Deputat, Miroshkin or Zakroev will finally have a stable partner and suddenly raise to the occassion the way Rogonov or Enbert did. It seems that it is never too late, as long as they have decent partners.

Back to juniors, after those transitional years I think now the strongest junior pairs started emerging. Several of them are working on quad twist, links have been posted on youtube. The pairs seem to go the way Russian junior ladies went - at first it was just Adelina and Liza. Following year it added Julia, then Elena with Anna and if you look at the junior ladies now, there is something like five new promising ladies every year now. With pairs the last season many pairs were new and started from zero and yet some strong ones emerged. Now for next season there is even more of them and it will be quite touh fight for the JGP spots. I think junior pairs are on its way up.

hanca said:

I think junior pairs are on its way up.

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Hope so. But for now, after M/M splitted up, I don't see any other strong team like they were. M/M were fast, well choreographed, had strong pair elements, good jumps and consistent. When you have team like that - then sure you have to learn some difficult elements. But when you can barely skate, barely jump and you're inconsistent - which reason to learn quad twist if you'll fall at triple jump next? I'd compare current Russian pair state with period when competed Makarova, Korobeynikova or Shelepen.

puremagic said:

Hope so. But for now, after M/M splitted up, I don't see any other strong team like they were. M/M were fast, well choreographed, had strong pair elements, good jumps and consistent. When you have team like that - then sure you have to learn some difficult elements. But when you can barely skate, barely jump and you're inconsistent - which reason to learn quad twist if you'll fall at triple jump next? I'd compare current Russian pair state with period when competed Makarova, Korobeynikova or Shelepen.

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That's ridiculous! Makarova, Shelepen or Korobeynikova? So which one is the one who won GPF and medalled at worlds?
Russia had two pair teams in GPF and has bronze from worlds, so why are you so critical?
If you are talking about junior pairs, well, there are about six teams that look very good, have one or two triples, and the twist quad helps because it is extra points. If someone messes a jump but have something extra that no one else has, they can make up the points for the mistake, so I wouldn't underestimate what the quad is for.

hanca said:

That's ridiculous! Makarova, Shelepen or Korobeynikova? So which one is the one who won GPF and medalled at worlds?
Russia had two pair teams in GPF and has bronze from worlds, so why are you so critical?
If you are talking about junior pairs, well, there are about six teams that look very good, have one or two triples, and the twist quad helps because it is extra points. If someone messes a jump but have something extra that no one else has, they can make up the points for the mistake, so I wouldn't underestimate what the quad is for.

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Well, for example.

You got me wrong a little bit. I meant all junior pairs level is very weak. Looking at junior ladies progressing, junior pairs still at very low level. Double jumps, double twists and inconsistent. Only one or two junior teams during the season can show some consistent and not bad results. Others just far behind. And as we see, very often this only one team somehow from another country but Russia. I'd say progress will be when at least top 10 pairs at JW will jump triple jumps and do triple twists.

Fedorova/Miroshkin and Borisova/Sopot - had superb pairs elements, presentation, but no jumps.
Atakhanova/Spiridonov - great speed, choreography, they have jumps, but bad pair elements and inconsistent.
Ustimkina/Volodin and Boikova/Kozlovski - they have jumps, but their fair TES and PCS speak for themselves.

Russia needs more pairs like were Mishina/Mirzoev. And their coaches were Velikovs. They also coached Stolbova/Klimov. Don't know why RusFed don't help to Velikovs.

And if we look at seniors:

Who else except Tarasova/Morozov and Stolbova/Klimov?

Zabiyako/Enbert - good SP, but their FS shows what they can. For me this pair has no chances for a good results. Also I may say the same about Astakhova/Rogonov.

Anyway, you can answer me: "Hey! Look at other countries! They all have only 1-2 top teams". And this is true. But it's way to nowhere, if you refer to others. Champions don't do like that. They always lead, don't follow. And if you wanna be the champion - start from yourself.

Considering the results which I mentioned above, Russia has all possibilities to make really 3-4 very strong teams and pretend for a podium sweep. But I don't know will it happen or not. Time will show. And for the beginning I'd start from finance help to Velikovs.

puremagic said:

Well, for example.

You got me wrong a little bit. I meant all junior pairs level is very weak. Looking at junior ladies progressing, junior pairs still at very low level. Double jumps, double twists and inconsistent. Only one or two junior teams during the season can show some consistent and not bad results. Others just far behind. And as we see, very often this only one team somehow from another country but Russia. I'd say progress will be when at least top 10 pairs at JW will jump triple jumps and do triple twists.

Fedorova/Miroshkin and Borisova/Sopot - had superb pairs elements, presentation, but no jumps.
Atakhanova/Spiridonov - great speed, choreography, they have jumps, but bad pair elements and inconsistent.
Ustimkina/Volodin and Boikova/Kozlovski - they have jumps, but their fair TES and PCS speak for themselves.

Russia needs more pairs like were Mishina/Mirzoev. And their coaches were Velikovs. They also coached Stolbova/Klimov. Don't know why RusFed don't help to Velikovs.

And if we look at seniors:

Who else except Tarasova/Morozov and Stolbova/Klimov?

Zabiyako/Enbert - good SP, but their FS shows what they can. For me this pair has no chances for a good results. Also I may say the same about Astakhova/Rogonov.

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Your problem is that you are looking at the junior pairs from the wrong side. For example, you are overly critical to Boikova/Kozlovski, who personally I find quite boring, but no one can deny that they are pretty decent considering that they skated together for about eight months when this season started. So they have achieved more than anyone could expect in their first whole season.
Similarly, Borisova/Sopot were not as bad as you are making them. Last season they were quite consistent; this season they were weak but in the summer she had a very bad illness and lost a lot of training time. She still was not practicing in August, so it would be unrealistic to expect any miracles this season.
When you are judging the strength of the junior pairs, I would look at the ones who were newly created and yet they progressed a lot in this last season. I am counting on Pavliuschenko/Khodykin, Kudriavtseva/Simenenko, Kvartalova/Sviatchenko, all of them had their first season and yet they scored quite decently. We can also add Mishina/Galliamov, which could be decent too. And Sopot left Borisova and the gossip is that he paired with his girlfriend Poluyanova, so we will see how they will do. Their pair elements should be brilliant because he is a strong guy which helps, but we will see if her jumps are better than Borisova's jumps.
Saying that, I would not give up on Atakhanova/Spiridonov. They seem to be headcases, but it may finally click. (I hope it is not Pavlova who is messing with their head). I am not so sure about the long term prospect of Ustimkina/Volodin, but they are not as bad as you are making them.

hanca said:

Your problem is that you are looking at the junior pairs from the wrong side. For example, you are overly critical to Boikova/Kozlovski, who personally I find quite boring, but no one can deny that they are pretty decent considering that they skated together for about eight months when this season started. So they have achieved more than anyone could expect in their first whole season.
Similarly, Borisova/Sopot were not as bad as you are making them. Last season they were quite consistent; this season they were weak but in the summer she had a very bad illness and lost a lot of training time. She still was not practicing in August, so it would be unrealistic to expect any miracles this season.
When you are judging the strength of the junior pairs, I would look at the ones who were newly created and yet they progressed a lot in this last season. I am counting on Pavliuschenko/Khodykin, Kudriavtseva/Simenenko, Kvartalova/Sviatchenko, all of them had their first season and yet they scored quite decently. We can also add Mishina/Galliamov, which could be decent too. And Sopot left Borisova and the gossip is that he paired with his girlfriend Poluyanova, so we will see how they will do. Their pair elements should be brilliant because he is a strong guy which helps, but we will see if her jumps are better than Borisova's jumps.
Saying that, I would not give up on Atakhanova/Spiridonov. They seem to be headcases, but it may finally click. (I hope it is not Pavlova who is messing with their head). I am not so sure about the long term prospect of Ustimkina/Volodin, but they are not as bad as you are making them.

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I didn't say they're bad. I said they are average pairs. If we're talking about Ustimkina/Volodin and Boikova/Koslovski. They can easily earn JGP medals one after another. But they all are far from top level like were Mishina/Mirzoev. Borisova/Sopot won JGPF and YOG just because Duskova/Bidar were unstable. And because of well-deserved GOE for their great pair elements. But with clean skate D/B would beat B/S like at JWC.

I didn't see other Russian junior pairs including those which you mentioned. Maybe I'll check it later.

puremagic said:

I didn't say they're bad. I said they are average pairs. If we're talking about Ustimkina/Volodin and Boikova/Koslovski. They can easily earn JGP medals one after another. But they all are far from top level like were Mishina/Mirzoev. Borisova/Sopot won JGPF and YOG just because Duskova/Bidar were unstable. And because of well-deserved GOE for their great pair elements. But with clean skate D/B would beat B/S like at JWC.

I didn't see other Russian junior pairs including those which you mentioned. Maybe I'll check it later.

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Borisova/Sopot did not win JGPF because Duskova/Bidar were unstable. They did not compete with one pair only. They won it because at that time they were strongest and most consistent from those who were competing. You are downplaying their strengths and highlighting their weaknesses, but the bottom line is, none of the pairs is perfect. So if one pair is not strong with jumps, they can find a way how to make it up. The medals are not awarded to those who have two triples. The medals are awarded to those who manage to gather most points. If Borisova/Sopot lost points on jumps and yet managed to gather the points on their pair elements, that doesn't make them less deserving of the medals they won. The bottom line is that they were one of the three strongest junior pairs in the world the last season.

Saying that someone's clean skate would win someone elses clean skate is pointless. The same way you can say that the Australian pair did not deserve their gold at junior worlds because clean Boikova/Kozlovski would beat them. Those speculations are pointless, because B/K did not skate clean and therefore did not beat them.

When you are checking out the pairs I meantioned, bear in mind that it was their first season together, and two of the female partners, Kvartalova and Pavliuschenko, were doing pairs only first season. Yet they were getting reasonable scores, 160-170 points. Kudriavtseva/Simenenko got together only in the middle of this season, that's way they missed the nationals, and yet they scored 154-167 this season. There are not many pairs who can go and compete two months after they were paired and score 161.

hanca said:

Borisova/Sopot did not win JGPF because Duskova/Bidar were unstable. They did not compete with one pair only. They won it because at that time they were strongest and most consistent from those who were competing. You are downplaying their strengths and highlighting their weaknesses, but the bottom line is, none of the pairs is perfect. So if one pair is not strong with jumps, they can find a way how to make it up. The medals are not awarded to those who have two triples. The medals are awarded to those who manage to gather most points. If Borisova/Sopot lost points on jumps and yet managed to gather the points on their pair elements, that doesn't make them less deserving of the medals they won. The bottom line is that they were one of the three strongest junior pairs in the world the last season.

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I forgot about Atakhanova/Spiridonov. For me, if all three team were clean then results looked like this:

1. Atakhanova/Spiridonov
2. Duskova/Bidar
3. Borisova/Sopot

A/S were my favorites when I first time saw them. But then Amina started to fall and Iliya started to ruin twist/lifts, and this continues second season in a row (they fixed only twist) - I can't see the bright side.

hanca said:

Saying that someone's clean skate would win someone elses clean skate is pointless. The same way you can say that the Australian pair did not deserve their gold at junior worlds because clean Boikova/Kozlovski would beat them. Those speculations are pointless, because B/K did not skate clean and therefore did not beat them.

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Are you kidding? Australians much better than Boikova/Kozlovski. In compare - Boikova/Kozlovski can barely skate against the background of Australians. In PCS I'd always give to A/W higher PCS by five points or even higher. Even with Katya's fall on the throw they won. And well-deserved.

I'm talking about full package. Pair elements, speed, jumps and consistent, like were M/M.
A/S are close to it, and their results shows it - they won FS at JWC 2017 and could easily beat Czechs in the last season. But they have no enough stamina (pairs elements and slowness at the end) and stability (Amina's falls).

hanca said:

When you are checking out the pairs I meantioned, bear in mind that it was their first season together, and two of the female partners, Kvartalova and Pavliuschenko, were doing pairs only first season. Yet they were getting reasonable scores, 160-170 points. Kudriavtseva/Simenenko got together only in the middle of this season, that's way they missed the nationals, and yet they scored 154-167 this season. There are not many pairs who can go and compete two months after they were paired and score 161.

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Can you share some link to the playlists or something? I know only Sharovs channel and TheFSRussia.

Boikova/Kozlovski has season best only three points lower that the Aussies, so saying that they are miles better - why don't their marks show it? Oh wait, because they are not miles better. Aussies had the opportunities that Boikova/Kozlovskii can only dream about at this stage of their careers. Because Aussies are the top team in their country, they had the opportunity to do 4CC and worlds, which Boikova/Kozlovski did not have. But if Aussie were so strong, they wouldn't get to JGPF only as substitute , and would not place there 5th. In fact, Aussies are more inconsistent that Boikova/Kozlovski. They were 8th and 1st in their JGP events, 5th at JGPF and 1st at junior worlds. Are you really saying that they are better than someone who were 2nd and 4th at JGP events, 3rd at JGPF and 2nd at junior worlds? We can also compare consistency of their scores if you wish to, but there is no point. Aussie did deserve to win junior worlds, but saying that they are better skaters than Boikova/Kozlovski is ridiculous. As much as I find B/K boring to watch, they have done very well.

I am can't be bothered 'to share the playlist' for the pairs I mentioned. The videos were posted on another thread on this forum throughout the last season, so if you can't be bothered to go through the thread yourself, I am not going to do it for you. But if you really haven't seen even the videos from their junior nationals (because a few of the pairs I mentioned did compete there), I am wondering what you are basing your opinion on when you are criticising the level of Russian junior pair skaters. It seems to me that you know nothing about Russian junior pairs!

Boikova/Kozlovski are the next Zabiyako/Enbert or Astakhova/Rogonov. Same average skating skills and no hopes for the titles. Australians are much better and it's obvious.

About Russian junior pairs I know enough because I judge looking at JGP events. Some local Russian competitions - it's not an indication of the level of pairs. So if in the next JGP season I'll see some good Russian pair - I'd be happy. But for now I don't see any team which could be close to M/M level.

puremagic said:

My wish: Evgenia, Alina and Polina.
My predict: Evgenia, Alina and Polina.

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Polina has serious health problems. I think fight for 3rd spot will between Anna and Elena.

voolfee said:

Polina has serious health problems. I think fight for 3rd spot will between Anna and Elena.

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Yes, I found out about this after I posted it. But she is fighter, because she said that she wanted to continue, she want to skate. I hope she will be okay.