It feels like Sochi 2014 just ended just a while ago, but we are already less than a year out from Korea 2018. So how do the top US ladies look heading into the next Olympic season?
Familiar Faces
Ashley Wagner: After the high of winning a surprise silver medal at Worlds in 2016, suddenly she found herself no longer the chaser, a position she has historically been comfortable with - but the chased, someone who has made it onto the World podium and must defend that position, or climb further up - in her case, to the top. So last season's question was, "How would she handle this?" Now we know the answer, and it isn't what many want to hear - it was a struggle all around. Missed the Grand Prix Final, missed out on a 4th National title, finished only 7th at Worlds this year. While respectable results when looked at in isolation, after the 2015-16 season, this can be seen as nothing short of a disappointment. The Olympic season, for her, will be all about resolve. How much does she want the Olympics - and how much is she willing to give up to get there? If she does make the Olympics, does she want a medal? A gold medal? All that, plus her physical condition (health), will dictate how far she gets. Also remember the 2014 controversy - don't think the media won't remind her of it come Nationals. Can she handle that pressure? If she's 4th again, will we go through a similar controversy if she is named? Stay tuned.
Gracie Gold: After leading the short at Boston Worlds, she had a couple of unfortunate stumbles that led to a 4th place finish on a night where she couldn't afford any errors. End of the world? No, but somehow it seems like in her mind, it was. The resulting plunge would lead to the worst results of her career the following season, not winning a single medal and missing out on Worlds for the first time as a senior. Adding to all this was a very public split from her long-time coach Frank Carroll, and soon after, a move from LA to Michigan. The question of whether she can turn things around and once again lead the US women is, in my opinion, the question of the season. It may also be the biggest factor in the Olympic picture - until last season, she and Wagner were considered to be the forefront of US ladies skating. Now, for reasons I'll cover a little later, neither appears to be a lock for this team - but particularly, Gold has not shown she is anywhere near ready to contend for an Olympic medal, or perhaps even an Olympic berth. We will see the shape she is in come the early events in October - but even if she continues to show some rust, don't count her out. A lot can change in a short time, particularly in the fall months as the skaters ramp their way up to top shape. However, in the case of a close call at the trials - a close 4th for example - she may not get the benefit of the doubt and she'll be out of luck.
Mirai Nagasu: Most of the talk around Nagasu recently has centered around her Triple Axel (3A) attempts. It has excited a lot of people since the last successful attempt by a US lady was, I believe, Nationals 2005 (K. Meissner). For me, though, the bigger question is whether she can overcome her jump under-rotation (UR) tendencies. Also, whether the pressure of attempting the 3A is too much and distracts her from the bigger picture (a trap that even Mao Asada (JPN) would occasionally fall into). And - does Nagasu even need a 3A to contend for the Olympic team? Ultimately she drew the short stick in the 2014 controversy over the US Olympic team, getting passed over for the 3rd spot even with her 3rd place finish at 2014 Nationals. She'll be looking for redemption in 2018 - and whether that is making the Korea squad, landing the 3A - or, perhaps, both - she'll have plenty of folks rooting for her. At the same time, one has to wonder if deep down, she truly loves skating - and that is what keeps her going nearly 10 years after she first burst onto the scene in 2008.
Polina Edmunds: Injury kept her out of Boston Worlds, and all of last season, but indications point to interest in making a return next season for a crack at 2018. She is also now a college student, which, like other student-athletes, will divide her attention as she moves forward. The question I would ask at this stage is what her goals are - this will determine where expectations should be set. Does she want Olympics? Or just a final hurrah in front of an adoring home crowd?
New Kids On The Block
Karen Chen: A surprise National championship and 4th place Worlds finish last season have forced Chen's name into the US Olympic conversation - and while she has shown struggles with consistency throughout her career, she has shown clear ability to be a contender at her best. At or near her best, she will be a strong candidate for the Olympic team and can easily give Wagner and Gold a run for their money unless either steps it up. But, if she's off - and when off, she can sometimes be REALLY off - she may not even be top 10 material. Someone to watch - but more like a question mark, a wildcard at this point. Her early-season results may be telling.
Mariah Bell: Similar to Chen, a surprise 2nd place finish at 2016 Skate America propelled Bell into the equation. Also similar to Chen, Bell has struggled with consistency issues. The question for Bell is whether she can take her newfound "contender" status and make it work for her - in other words, be able to deliver under those circumstances. As for making the Olympics, it won't be easy, and if Gold makes a strong return, she could have her hands full even if she's in her prime - but anything is possible. All you can control is how you skate, and you just have to let the chips fall otherwise.
That's it as far as contenders go - others may be in the mix at the lower level of the top 10, but probably need either an incredible breakthrough or luck of the draw to be a factor for the Team. Finally, there is always the possibility of an up-and-comer spoiling the party and throwing a wrench into the machine, much like Edmunds did in 2014. As I'm not dialed into the junior scene, I'm not sure what the potential names may be, but I'm more than sure other skatefans do.
That's all I got - now have at it!
Familiar Faces
Ashley Wagner: After the high of winning a surprise silver medal at Worlds in 2016, suddenly she found herself no longer the chaser, a position she has historically been comfortable with - but the chased, someone who has made it onto the World podium and must defend that position, or climb further up - in her case, to the top. So last season's question was, "How would she handle this?" Now we know the answer, and it isn't what many want to hear - it was a struggle all around. Missed the Grand Prix Final, missed out on a 4th National title, finished only 7th at Worlds this year. While respectable results when looked at in isolation, after the 2015-16 season, this can be seen as nothing short of a disappointment. The Olympic season, for her, will be all about resolve. How much does she want the Olympics - and how much is she willing to give up to get there? If she does make the Olympics, does she want a medal? A gold medal? All that, plus her physical condition (health), will dictate how far she gets. Also remember the 2014 controversy - don't think the media won't remind her of it come Nationals. Can she handle that pressure? If she's 4th again, will we go through a similar controversy if she is named? Stay tuned.
Gracie Gold: After leading the short at Boston Worlds, she had a couple of unfortunate stumbles that led to a 4th place finish on a night where she couldn't afford any errors. End of the world? No, but somehow it seems like in her mind, it was. The resulting plunge would lead to the worst results of her career the following season, not winning a single medal and missing out on Worlds for the first time as a senior. Adding to all this was a very public split from her long-time coach Frank Carroll, and soon after, a move from LA to Michigan. The question of whether she can turn things around and once again lead the US women is, in my opinion, the question of the season. It may also be the biggest factor in the Olympic picture - until last season, she and Wagner were considered to be the forefront of US ladies skating. Now, for reasons I'll cover a little later, neither appears to be a lock for this team - but particularly, Gold has not shown she is anywhere near ready to contend for an Olympic medal, or perhaps even an Olympic berth. We will see the shape she is in come the early events in October - but even if she continues to show some rust, don't count her out. A lot can change in a short time, particularly in the fall months as the skaters ramp their way up to top shape. However, in the case of a close call at the trials - a close 4th for example - she may not get the benefit of the doubt and she'll be out of luck.
Mirai Nagasu: Most of the talk around Nagasu recently has centered around her Triple Axel (3A) attempts. It has excited a lot of people since the last successful attempt by a US lady was, I believe, Nationals 2005 (K. Meissner). For me, though, the bigger question is whether she can overcome her jump under-rotation (UR) tendencies. Also, whether the pressure of attempting the 3A is too much and distracts her from the bigger picture (a trap that even Mao Asada (JPN) would occasionally fall into). And - does Nagasu even need a 3A to contend for the Olympic team? Ultimately she drew the short stick in the 2014 controversy over the US Olympic team, getting passed over for the 3rd spot even with her 3rd place finish at 2014 Nationals. She'll be looking for redemption in 2018 - and whether that is making the Korea squad, landing the 3A - or, perhaps, both - she'll have plenty of folks rooting for her. At the same time, one has to wonder if deep down, she truly loves skating - and that is what keeps her going nearly 10 years after she first burst onto the scene in 2008.
Polina Edmunds: Injury kept her out of Boston Worlds, and all of last season, but indications point to interest in making a return next season for a crack at 2018. She is also now a college student, which, like other student-athletes, will divide her attention as she moves forward. The question I would ask at this stage is what her goals are - this will determine where expectations should be set. Does she want Olympics? Or just a final hurrah in front of an adoring home crowd?
New Kids On The Block
Karen Chen: A surprise National championship and 4th place Worlds finish last season have forced Chen's name into the US Olympic conversation - and while she has shown struggles with consistency throughout her career, she has shown clear ability to be a contender at her best. At or near her best, she will be a strong candidate for the Olympic team and can easily give Wagner and Gold a run for their money unless either steps it up. But, if she's off - and when off, she can sometimes be REALLY off - she may not even be top 10 material. Someone to watch - but more like a question mark, a wildcard at this point. Her early-season results may be telling.
Mariah Bell: Similar to Chen, a surprise 2nd place finish at 2016 Skate America propelled Bell into the equation. Also similar to Chen, Bell has struggled with consistency issues. The question for Bell is whether she can take her newfound "contender" status and make it work for her - in other words, be able to deliver under those circumstances. As for making the Olympics, it won't be easy, and if Gold makes a strong return, she could have her hands full even if she's in her prime - but anything is possible. All you can control is how you skate, and you just have to let the chips fall otherwise.
That's it as far as contenders go - others may be in the mix at the lower level of the top 10, but probably need either an incredible breakthrough or luck of the draw to be a factor for the Team. Finally, there is always the possibility of an up-and-comer spoiling the party and throwing a wrench into the machine, much like Edmunds did in 2014. As I'm not dialed into the junior scene, I'm not sure what the potential names may be, but I'm more than sure other skatefans do.
That's all I got - now have at it!
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