Olympic Preview - Contenders for Team USA

GS Forum Staff · Sep 20, 2017

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Olympic Preview

emilyprox said:
https://www.upi.com/Sports_News/201.../?utm_source=upi&utm_campaign=mp&utm_medium=2

Top Male Contenders: Nathan Chen, Vincent Zhou, Adam Rippon, Jason Brown

Top Female Contenders: Mirai Nagasu, Karen Chen, Ashley Wagner

Top Pair: Alexa Scimeca Knierim and Chris Knierim

I'm most interested in Adam Rippon vs. Jason Brown, who do you guys think will get the spot? Is Nathan Chen a huge threat to Yuzuru Hanyu this year?

nycgirl · Sep 20, 2017

I know Max Aaron has had a rough couple of seasons but I was impressed with his performance at US Intl Classic last weekend. It will be tough for him to make the team though if other top skaters put out good performances.

I would add Polina Edmonds to the list of ladies too watch. If someone like a Mirai or a Karen really has a poor showing this season leading to Nationals, Polina might edge them out.

I love Adam but the judges are love Jason too. I would give the edge to Jason. I think Nathan Chen can pull it off against Hanyu time will tell though. Let the quads begin. :laugh:

pearly · Sep 20, 2017

Does Adam have a quad? I hate that it has come to this. I don't think it will be the key thing in the selection, just wondering.

Jason's opening jump in the FS (3F?) looked like there's room for another rotation, so he might be working on that.

Polina hasn't been around internationally last season. Other than her 4CC win a couple of years ago there isn't much to go on. Right now I'm thinking about the ladies selection 4 years ago.

What about ice dance? I guess the Shibutanis, Chock/Bates and Hubbel/Donahue are all pretty safe.

qwerty · Sep 20, 2017

The article completely excludes discussion of Ice Dance, which is Team USA's shining discipline at the moment. The factoid about the USA sending its smallest Olympic team since 1924 is false.

VIETgrlTerifa · Sep 20, 2017

They really skipped ice dance, which is the discipline that Team USA has been consistently the most successful in the past ten years or so, and with fierce competition.

Barb · Sep 20, 2017

Idiots!!! :sarcasm:, ice dancers will show them who are the real contenders (for olympic medal, no less)

TontoK · Sep 20, 2017

pearly said:
Does Adam have a quad? I hate that it has come to this. I don't think it will be the key thing in the selection, just wondering.

Jason's opening jump in the FS (3F?) looked like there's room for another rotation, so he might be working on that.

Polina hasn't been around internationally last season. Other than her 4CC win a couple of years ago there isn't much to go on. Right now I'm thinking about the ladies selection 4 years ago.

What about ice dance? I guess the Shibutanis, Chock/Bates and Hubbel/Donahue are all pretty safe.

Adam has attempted 4 Lutz in prior years, and while he has stood them up, I am unaware of an instance in which he got credit for the jump. He's been moderately more successful with a 4 Toe, although I wouldn't call that a consistent jump... although we haven't seen him yet this year, so time will tell.

Jason is working on a 4 Toe and a 4 Sal, although he's never landed a clean one in competition. Some people believe he'll ultimately achieve the jumps. I have heard nothing at all about him working on a 4 Flip.

I disagree with you in that I think that strong jump content will play a large role in team selection for men.

The picture on ladies in not clear. I think many people believed the ladies team would probably include Gracie, but I'm not sure if she'll even compete. I wouldn't rule Polina out, provided she's adapted to her growth. In prior seasons, it appeared that she had not, but that can take time. Assuming that Karen and Ashley make the team (and I think that's reasonable), there is still a third spot to be allotted, and the competition for it will be stiff.

I agree with your assessment of US Dance, although I think there is some possibility of a shakeup in standings.

drivingmissdaisy · Sep 20, 2017

I'm definitely expecting at least one surprise woman on the team. None of the three contenders listed are consistent, and the probability of all of them skating well at Nationals is low.

pearly · Sep 20, 2017

Perhaps, but remember 2014. Results at US Nationals did not define the Olympic team that year.

drivingmissdaisy · Sep 20, 2017

pearly said:
Perhaps, but remember 2014. Results at US Nationals did not define the Olympic team that year.

Yeah, but no one (yet) has the record coming in like Ashley did last time. There isn't any indication that any of our women will be winning GPs and making the GPF like Ashley did in 2013-14. If that happens, a skater will get special consideration, but merely getting 4th at Worlds or landing a 3A won't get you on the Olympic team without a Nationals medal.

apgold · Sep 20, 2017

Bradie Tennell could be a dark horse for the ladies team. She's been the most consistent US lady this season so far (although it's very early) and was just assigned Skate America. She's not the most charismatic or has exciting programs but she consistently hits and rotates her jumps.

I expect fiercely debated arguments for most of the disciplines, except for Ice Dance, which is pretty much sewn up by the Shibs, C/B and H/D. We have a lot of other talented younger ID teams but it's not their turn yet, IMO. 2022 will be the year for the Parsons, H/B, P/B, M/C, etc.

el henry · Sep 20, 2017

pearly said:
Perhaps, but remember 2014. Results at US Nationals did not define the Olympic team that year.

Only for the ladies. No one would have chosen Jason or Felicia/Nate on their "body of work" in 2014, yet they finished second at Nats and were chosen for the Olympic team.

That said, the criteria is different this year, I believe, and I don't know how it will affect the choices.

Cherry blossom · Sep 20, 2017

How stupid of them to leave out ice dance when that's their current strongest discipline in figure skating and the only discipline they have a large chance at medaling in. The top female contenders are seriously #figureskatingteamgoals though. :love:

pearly · Sep 20, 2017

el henry said:
That said, the criteria is different this year, I believe, and I don't know how it will affect the choices.

I wasn't aware, what is the criteria this year?

CanadianSkaterGuy · Sep 20, 2017

apgold said:
Bradie Tennell could be a dark horse for the ladies team. She's been the most consistent US lady this season so far (although it's very early) and was just assigned Skate America. She's not the most charismatic or has exciting programs but she consistently hits and rotates her jumps.

Agreed. Her PB is higher than Mirai's now. And she rotates her jumps, unlike Karen and Mirai and Ashley, whose scores can all take a hit depending on the day and the tech specialist. She could pull a Polina and be the fresh face that makes the US team simply because she skates the cleanest (what a thought!).

As far as ID, that's a huge omission, given it's probably USA's best medal chance (other than Team, obviously), and they have three teams who could all be in the top 6.

el henry · Sep 20, 2017

pearly said:
I wasn't aware, what is the criteria this year?

I *think*, but this is just from reading the Boards, that the USFS is giving more emphasis to body of work and less to Nats than they did in 2014. From what I read, maybe to cover themselves more if they choose the 4th place finisher again? But I have not read the criteria myself so this is completely third hand.

Maybe someone who has actually read them can explain more?

CanadianSkaterGuy · Sep 20, 2017

emilyprox said:
I'm most interested in Adam Rippon vs. Jason Brown, who do you guys think will get the spot? Is Nathan Chen a huge threat to Yuzuru Hanyu this year?

I think Jason has a better shot than Adam this year of getting the spot. However, Jason still isn't bringing it technically, and Max is making a case for himself. Nathan will get top spot most definitely, and I'm predicting Vincent will get at least 3rd. Max deserves to go if he outskates him at Nationals. However, I think team USA likes Brown more and already has their medal contender in Chen so it might not matter to them who else they send.

Chen is definitely a huge threat to Hanyu this season. He was last season, having defeated him at 4CC (remember, this was his first senior season, too). He has now landing the full set (save for the axel) of quads. If he wanted to, he could attempt a program with 7 quads. At the moment Hanyu lacks the two hardest quads - flip and lutz, so he maxes out at 5 possible quads. He's also playing it very smart, and showing stripped down programs technically at the start of the season to show people the quality of his skating (and to avoid burning himself out), and then I'm sure once he's established that he is deserving of top level PCS, he'll upgrade the triples to the quads he's capable of at the bigger events.

drivingmissdaisy · Sep 20, 2017

el henry said:
That said, the criteria is different this year, I believe, and I don't know how it will affect the choices.

I think the rules are just more clearly outlined now to cover occasions when the best skater finishes too low (i.e. if Nathan came in 4th) or the national champ isn't the best selection when there are fewer spots. At the moment, I think only Nathan could get an Olympic spot without medaling at Nationals among the men and women singles skaters. Conversely, there are many skaters who can make a case for themselves with a Nationals medal, such as Karen last year who made the world team solely on her Nationals result. Several skaters had a better season than Karen leading up to the event.

pearly · Sep 20, 2017

It turned out to be a good idea to send Karen to Worlds because ultimately she was the one who secured the third spot. I think she has good programs this year and if she skates them well she should be safe.

drivingmissdaisy · Sep 20, 2017

pearly said:
I think she has good programs this year and if she skates them well she should be safe.

She also has pressure she hasn't faced before, being national champion and the highest US finisher at Worlds for the women. She wasn't great at 4CC, WTT, or the US Classic, but skated well at Nationals and Worlds. Internationally, she has surpassed 180 twice in 13 tries as a senior and has yet to win a silver medal.

Olympic Preview - Contenders for Team USA

GS Forum Staff

nycgirl

pearly

qwerty

VIETgrlTerifa

Barb

TontoK

Hot Tonto

drivingmissdaisy

pearly

drivingmissdaisy

apgold

el henry

Go have some cake. And come back with jollity.

Cherry blossom

Match Penalty

pearly

CanadianSkaterGuy

el henry

Go have some cake. And come back with jollity.

CanadianSkaterGuy

drivingmissdaisy

pearly

drivingmissdaisy

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