2018 Olympics Team Event Scoring Prediction

fredtx121 · Oct 19, 2017

Assuming each country's best skaters do both events.

Short Program
Dance Men's Ladies Pairs
Canada-10 Japan-10 Russia- 10 China- 10
France- 9 USA- 9 Japan- 9 Germany -9
USA - 8 Canada- 8 Canada -8 Russia- 8
Russia- 7 China - 7 Italy - 7 Canada- 7
Italy- 6 Russia-6 USA- 6 Italy- 6
Israel- 5 Israel- 5 S Korea- 5 France-5
China-4 France -4 China-4 USA - 4
Germany-3 Germany -3 France- 3 Israel-3
Japan- 2 Italy-2 Germany-2 Japan- 2
S Korea-1 S Korea-1 Israel-1 S Korea -1

Totals
1)Canada - 33 - Advance to FP
2)Russia - 31 - Advance to FP
3)USA- 27- Advance to FP
4)China- 25 Advance to FP
5)Japan- 23 Advance to FP
6)Italy 21
France 21
8)Germany 17
9)Israel 14
10)S Korea- 8

Free Program

Dance Mens Ladies Pairs
Canada- 10 Japan-10 Russia-10 China-10
USA-9 USA- 9 Japan- 9 Russia- 9
Russia-8 Canada-8 Canada-8 Canada- 8
China-7 China- 7 USA- 7 USA-7
Japan-6 Russia- 6 China-6 Japan- 6

Total - FP
1) Canada-34
2) Russia-33
3) USA-32
4) Japan-31
5) China-30

Final Standings
Canada- 67 GOLD
Russia- 64 SILVER
USA- 59 BRONZE
China- 55
Japan 54

Ice Dance · Oct 19, 2017

Lots of work. Kudos.

FYI, you have France in twice during the short and are missing Italy in the pairs event.

fredtx121 · Oct 19, 2017

Ice Dance said:
Lots of work. Kudos.

FYI, you have France in twice during the short and are missing Italy in the pairs event.

Just noticed Thanks for the heads up! =)

samkrut@mail.ru · Nov 3, 2017

fredtx121 said:
Assuming each country's best skaters do both events.

Short Program
Dance Men's Ladies Pairs
Canada-10 Japan-10 Russia- 10 China- 10
France- 9 USA- 9 Japan- 9 Germany -9
USA - 8 Canada- 8 Canada -8 Russia- 8
Russia- 7 China - 7 Italy - 7 Canada- 7
Italy- 6 Russia-6 USA- 6 Italy- 6
Israel- 5 Israel- 5 S Korea- 5 France-5
China-4 France -4 China-4 USA - 4
Germany-3 Germany -3 France- 3 Israel-3
Japan- 2 Italy-2 Germany-2 Japan- 2
S Korea-1 S Korea-1 Israel-1 S Korea -1

Totals
1)Canada - 33 - Advance to FP
2)Russia - 31 - Advance to FP
3)USA- 27- Advance to FP
4)China- 25 Advance to FP
5)Japan- 23 Advance to FP
6)Italy 21
France 21
8)Germany 17
9)Israel 14
10)S Korea- 8

Free Program

Dance Mens Ladies Pairs
Canada- 10 Japan-10 Russia-10 China-10
USA-9 USA- 9 Japan- 9 Russia- 9
Russia-8 Canada-8 Canada-8 Canada- 8
China-7 China- 7 USA- 7 USA-7
Japan-6 Russia- 6 China-6 Japan- 6

Total - FP
1) Canada-34
2) Russia-33
3) USA-32
4) Japan-31
5) China-30

Final Standings
Canada- 67 GOLD
Russia- 64 SILVER
USA- 59 BRONZE
China- 55
Japan 54

Well, I might have a different view. I am talking now just Russia vs. Canada

SP

Ladies
Russia 10
Canada 9

I think the only skater who can challenge Osmond's silver is Caro. But I would still place bets on Kaetlyn and it's not clear if Caro wants to play a "spoiler" to USA and Japan (potentially Canada) when Italy has no medal chances and her priority is surely individual competition.

Dance
Canada 10
Russia 7

V/M seem as invincible as Medvedeva. P/C and S/S will be likely ahead of B/S. I think that B/S will be ahead of C/L

Pairs
Russia 9
Canada 8

This is if D/R plan to do team and S/M will not. T/M's short is quite strong - I think they will prevail over Canadians.

Men

And here comes the main trick. I may be wrong but this season Patrick does not look convincing at all. And Koyada just slayed. He scored today more than Patrick's personal best. And without Patrick it is going to be even harder for Canada.

I would say:
Russia 8 (after Japan and USA)
Canada 6 (after China as well)

Then after the short we shall have

Russia 34
Canada 33

The long will be even more difficult to Canada. First, there will be no France - the difference in dance will be smaller. Second, Osmond's (or Daleman's) chances to beat a Japanese skater in the long are not obvious at all.

Celine · Nov 3, 2017

Cool. Kudos. Did you compile this based on actual results from an event like Worlds which provide theoretically, common ground for an assessment? Just curious the formula this is based on....?

Given what we now know regarding Patrick Chan pulling out of the Grand Prix, for reasons that sound related to challenges with conditioning/motivation/etc., how would his absence impact Canada's result overall in your opinion?

Mathman · Nov 3, 2017

[email protected] said:
Well, I might have a different view. I am talking now just Russia vs. Canada.

Men

And here comes the main trick. I may be wrong but this season Patrick does not look convincing at all. And Koyada just slayed. He scored today more than Patrick's personal best. And without Patrick it is going to be even harder for Canada.

I have to agree. Who would have thought that the gold medal would come down to whether Patrick had enough gas in the tank to compete with Kolyada. We were resigned to placing Patrick behind Japan, USA and China, but one place lower could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Well, nothing is forever.

4everchan · Nov 3, 2017

Mathman said:
I have to agree. Who would have thought that the gold medal would come down to whether Patrick had enough gas in the tank to compete with Kolyada. We were resigned to placing Patrick behind Japan, USA and China, but one place lower could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Well, nothing is forever.

this is all fine... but the same kolyada just fell 3 times a couple weeks ago... the kid is great.. his 4lutz is gigantic... the best.... but he is a kid, who is still able of crashing down at any time.... and we don't know if he will be the selected man from Russia...

he could blow it at home.

Mathman · Nov 3, 2017

4everchan said:
this is all fine... but the same kolyada just fell 3 times a couple weeks ago... the kid is great.. his 4lutz is gigantic... the best.... but he is a kid, who is still able of crashing down at any time.... and we don't know if he will be the selected man from Russia... he could blow it at home.

Anything can happen. But going by the original post, even if Patrick finishes behind Boyang Jin (as well as Hanyu/Uno and Chen) it will still be touch and go for the gold, which once seemed secure for Canada (IMHO).

Sam-Skwantch · Nov 3, 2017

The first post is so colorful :points:

kenboy123 · Nov 3, 2017

fredtx121 said:
Assuming each country's best skaters do both events.

Short Program
Dance Men's Ladies Pairs
Canada-10 Japan-10 Russia- 10 China- 10
France- 9 USA- 9 Japan- 9 Germany -9
USA - 8 Canada- 8 Canada -8 Russia- 8
Russia- 7 China - 7 Italy - 7 Canada- 7
Italy- 6 Russia-6 USA- 6 Italy- 6
Israel- 5 Israel- 5 S Korea- 5 France-5
China-4 France -4 China-4 USA - 4
Germany-3 Germany -3 France- 3 Israel-3
Japan- 2 Italy-2 Germany-2 Japan- 2
S Korea-1 S Korea-1 Israel-1 S Korea -1

Totals
1)Canada - 33 - Advance to FP
2)Russia - 31 - Advance to FP
3)USA- 27- Advance to FP
4)China- 25 Advance to FP
5)Japan- 23 Advance to FP
6)Italy 21
France 21
8)Germany 17
9)Israel 14
10)S Korea- 8

Free Program

Dance Mens Ladies Pairs
Canada- 10 Japan-10 Russia-10 China-10
USA-9 USA- 9 Japan- 9 Russia- 9
Russia-8 Canada-8 Canada-8 Canada- 8
China-7 China- 7 USA- 7 USA-7
Japan-6 Russia- 6 China-6 Japan- 6

Total - FP
1) Canada-34
2) Russia-33
3) USA-32
4) Japan-31
5) China-30

Final Standings
Canada- 67 GOLD
Russia- 64 SILVER
USA- 59 BRONZE
China- 55
Japan 54

Good work doing all this, i wouldn't have the time or energy...However, i don't really understand these numbers when there are no names ...=(

4everchan · Nov 4, 2017

Mathman said:
Anything can happen. But going by the original post, even if Patrick finishes behind Boyang Jin (as well as Hanyu/Uno and Chen) it will still be touch and go for the gold, which once seemed secure for Canada (IMHO).

i never thought the gold was secure.... you really thought so?

Russia always manages to bring a strong team... At worlds last year, they were weak in Dance and Men.... Canada was only weak in Men.... however, Russia has made some big push in dance this season :shocked: and well... that means that both countries are pretty even now and other countries placing as spoiler between them (for instance France placing ahead of Russia in dance) will make the difference....

SP
I expect Russia to have the edge in Ladies by 1
Pairs could be either way.... but it looks like Russia could lead by 1
Dance should have Canada's biggest gap compared to Russia Canada by 2 or 3 (Go ITALY!!!)
Men = ??? depends which Chan and which Russian man shows up.... Could be Russia by 1?

See... one point lead for Russia here, being conservative.

Mathman · Nov 4, 2017

I am a straw in the wind. Kolyada skates a great SP and I think that Russia will win. Then Kolyada skates a bad long program and I think that Patrick can be the Olympic team hero.

4everchan · Nov 4, 2017

Mathman said:
I am a straw in the wind. Kolyada skates a great SP and I think that Russia will win. Then Kolyada skates a bad long program and I think that Patrick can be the Olympic team hero.

that's the beauty of sport

Tulipstar · Nov 4, 2017

Mathman said:
I have to agree. Who would have thought that the gold medal would come down to whether Patrick had enough gas in the tank to compete with Kolyada. We were resigned to placing Patrick behind Japan, USA and China, but one place lower could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Well, nothing is forever.

Especially if that place is Russia.
Still, Kolyada is inconsistent, so anything could happen between the both of them.

What I do disagree with in the first post is having China under Canada with men. I think Boyang will beat Chan, as he has in the World Championships the last two years. I like Chan, but he can't keep up with all these multi quad youngsters.

4everchan · Nov 4, 2017

Tulipstar said:
Especially if that place is Russia.
Still, Kolyada is inconsistent, so anything could happen between the both of them.

What I do disagree with in the first post is having China under Canada with men. I think Boyang will beat Chan, as he has in the World Championships the last two years. I like Chan, but he can't keep up with all these multi quad youngsters.

well and this is interesting too... because Patrick did well in the both SPs at worlds in 2016 and 2017 finishing 3rd each time... and both times Javi was ahead... a clean Patrick in the SP is more competitive (especially if he does use the salchow) than a clean Patrick in the LP... because in the LP, then he is definitely disadvantaged compared to anyone with 4-5-6 quads... not the case in the SP... and you may want to think that his quality of over all skating, spins and steps are becoming more of a factor as well in the SP since there are 3 jumping passes versus 3 spins and 1 stepseq... compared to the LP where there are 8 jumping passes but only the tiny choreo seq is added to the "other elements of skating"

so of course, things may happen differently, but I understand why Patrick for instance, could be more of a threat in the SP in the team event, and less in the LP.

Tulipstar · Nov 5, 2017

4everchan said:
well and this is interesting too... because Patrick did well in the both SPs at worlds in 2016 and 2017 finishing 3rd each time... and both times Javi was ahead... a clean Patrick in the SP is more competitive (especially if he does use the salchow) than a clean Patrick in the LP... because in the LP, then he is definitely disadvantaged compared to anyone with 4-5-6 quads... not the case in the SP... and you may want to think that his quality of over all skating, spins and steps are becoming more of a factor as well in the SP since there are 3 jumping passes versus 3 spins and 1 stepseq... compared to the LP where there are 8 jumping passes but only the tiny choreo seq is added to the "other elements of skating"

so of course, things may happen differently, but I understand why Patrick for instance, could be more of a threat in the SP in the team event, and less in the LP.

Good point.

samkrut@mail.ru · Nov 5, 2017

4everchan said:
well and this is interesting too... because Patrick did well in the both SPs at worlds in 2016 and 2017 finishing 3rd each time... and both times Javi was ahead... a clean Patrick in the SP is more competitive (especially if he does use the salchow) than a clean Patrick in the LP... because in the LP, then he is definitely disadvantaged compared to anyone with 4-5-6 quads... not the case in the SP... and you may want to think that his quality of over all skating, spins and steps are becoming more of a factor as well in the SP since there are 3 jumping passes versus 3 spins and 1 stepseq... compared to the LP where there are 8 jumping passes but only the tiny choreo seq is added to the "other elements of skating"

so of course, things may happen differently, but I understand why Patrick for instance, could be more of a threat in the SP in the team event, and less in the LP.

The same is true about Kolyada whose SP PB is higher than Patrick's.

Jammers · Nov 5, 2017

Canada seemed to be the slight favorite heading into Sochi also until Plushenko came along and changed everything. Ironically Canada is much more competitive in Ladies now compared to Sochi but Men's is a weakness now and Pairs which was another advantage a year ago is gone.

Tulipstar · Nov 5, 2017

Jammers said:
Canada seemed to be the slight favorite heading into Sochi also until Plushenko came along and changed everything. Ironically Canada is much more competitive in Ladies now compared to Sochi but Men's is a weakness now and Pairs which was another advantage a year ago is gone.

Yes, it's interesting how things swap around so quickly in an Olympic cycle.
With the ladies, Canada could be anywhere from 2nd (maybe even first if E/A has an off day) to fifth if the off day is for Kaetlyn (or Gabrielle).
I think it's going to be at the high end of that, though, since Kaetlyn seems comfortable with her SP. Plus, I also don't know if Kostner will compete since she's not going to get a medal from it and she might want to conserve her strength for the event where she could medal. No Kostner=automatic fourth place at the least.

With Russia, there's a likely 1st place in ladies, but with men anything can happen. Mikhail has potential, but it's also very possible for him to end behind Japan, US, China and Canada. Men, with their risky high-tech programs all have the potential to falter, as we see a lot now even with the top-competitors. Cup of China is a good example of this, with the ladies skating well and with few errors, while most of the men went all over the place.

It's fun to speculate about this:agree: I wish Korea was in the mix more. Guess this Olympic came a bit too soon for them. They're building into a real figure skate nation now.

I also wonder how eager the Japanese men are to compete here. Men already have it tough in the singles competition with events in quick succession. I remember from WTT, both Hanyu and Uno looked stressed/tired at the beginning of it (they were okay by the gala). I know WTT is not Olympics, but they're not likely to get more than a bronze here and might view it as extra pressure.

leafygreens · Feb 8, 2018

Where are we at with the predictions, since the men's SP was so wonky?

2018 Olympics Team Event Scoring Prediction

fredtx121

Ice Dance

fredtx121

[email protected]

Medalist

Celine

Mathman

4everchan

Mathman

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”

kenboy123

4everchan

Mathman

4everchan

Tulipstar

4everchan

Tulipstar

[email protected]

Medalist

Jammers

Tulipstar

leafygreens

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