- Joined
- Mar 3, 2015
I agree with your assessment regarding Mariah's coaching situation. I often wondered if she and Frank Carroll would be a good fit..
2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
I agree with your assessment regarding Mariah's coaching situation. I often wondered if she and Frank Carroll would be a good fit..
- Joined
- Apr 16, 2006
Huh. I remember back in 2007 everyone was raging about Caroline Zhang, but I knew that it would be Mirai who would break through the ranks. This is because her jumping technique (and that mule kick and flutz) was terrible to begin with and as she hit the growth spurt it became impossible to fix. Her spiral sequences were lovely, but now it seems that Mirai/Karen even hit those a lot better than Caroline now.
Meanwhile Mirai had the whole package, except maybe occasional two-footing and URs which made puberty hard to deal with post-2010. But I have faith in her still!
Crazy that both of them are still around 10 years later (even if they may be shadows of their former selves). Same with Wagner (whose peak was later). I feel we've gone through around two full cycles where other skaters have come and go (Flatt, Zawadzki, Gao, Gold, etc.) and these 3 have stuck around.
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2017
i don't know why but i feel Mirai 3A is more stable and powerful in practice? in competition she seems rarely attack that jump, like a bit slow or not enough speed, off axis sometimes and always 2 foot her landing while in practice we have seen many good attempts without UR or 2 foot. Well maybe nervousness? but her jumps in general is getting better and she's more consistent than ever!
Mirai does have a recent international medal -- 4CC bronze last season where Mariah was 6th and Karen 12th. She might not yet have reached the status of being a shoo-in, but nobody else is at the moment. Even though she did not get any GP podiums this year, her 4th place score at NHK at 194.46 was more than 10 points higher than Ashley's 183.94 at Skate Canada. If Anna were not injured, Ashley would not have made the SC podium either.
Again, you can't compare scores from competition to competition. Particularly when its openly acknowledged that the tech panel at Skate Canada was brutal. If Ashley had the tech panel at NHK, she may well have scored 195+ for her performances at Skate Canada. And as for Ashley only getting on the podium because Anna was injured, that's sport and shouldn't even factor into these discussions. At every competition, you can say that so-and-so only did well because so-and-so was sick, tired, injured, having a bad day, missed their flight connection the day before, etc. Its ridiculous. Plus, its not like Ashley hasn't beaten Anna in *multiple* match-ups since the latter moved up to seniors - I guess under your logic, every other time it was because Anna was injured so Ashley didn't truly deserve it in those instances either.
Ashley, Mariah and Karen all skate with connection to their music and they get higher PCS scores than Mirai does. Mirai simply does not perform her programs---she executes her elements, and that just isn't enough to make her competitive with the top ladies in the sport. The only 'connection' Mirai had to Miss Saigon was her dress.
It is what it is. If Wagner got on the SC podium because a competitor above her melted down, fine - I think we all understand and accept that happening as a part of competition. The bigger point being made with this discussion is that she shouldn’t rely on this happening every time as an excuse to NOT do better.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I agree with your post. My point was that there is no "shoo-in" at this point, and unlikely to be prior to Nationals unless Ashley makes the GPF. It's looking like the team will be Ashley, Karen, and Mirai, but only if that ends up being the Nationals podium.
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2015
Well, and honestly if Ashley hadn't killed it in the free, Gracie would have been on the podium de facto because others faltered. Lots of people have gotten medals from the mistakes and falls of others.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
True, and if Gracie had skated a great FS, Evgenia wouldn't be a two-time world champion. This might have changed the upward trajectory of her marks substantially.
The last consistent skater the US had was Michelle Kwan. These young girls might come up in the rank, but if they can't consistently put out clean performances, they will never matter much. Medvedeva rose to the top because she's super consistent.
If Karen is anywhere near that level, she would be the top skater, too.
If Karen is anywhere near that level, she would be the top skater, too.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2011
May we talk about the selection criteria?
The criteria state this is all decided by weighted metrics:
However, the last page of the criteria (sorry I can't post photos) shows a sample graph of consistency trends of all the events in a competitor's season. All events in the graph appear to be weighted the same, and not weighted higher according to Tier.
Criteria states events are ranked by "highest value." But what does this mean?
For example, Bradie Tennell currently has the highest SB among US ladies! But her score was achieved at Lombardia, a Tier 3 event. Karen, Ashley and Mariah all have 2017 World experience, which is Tier 1. But they have not been spectacular so far this season. Do Karen, Ashley and Mariah automatically rank before Bradie because they went to Worlds, even though it was longer ago? At what point does a World's score count less than a spectacular Lombardia score?
Can someone explain this, and better yet, why are the metrics not made public? If the decision is made simply on the metrics (and not corporate sponsorships) then there should be no fear of the USFSA opening their backroom door to this procedure.
The criteria state this is all decided by weighted metrics:
However, the last page of the criteria (sorry I can't post photos) shows a sample graph of consistency trends of all the events in a competitor's season. All events in the graph appear to be weighted the same, and not weighted higher according to Tier.
Criteria states events are ranked by "highest value." But what does this mean?
For example, Bradie Tennell currently has the highest SB among US ladies! But her score was achieved at Lombardia, a Tier 3 event. Karen, Ashley and Mariah all have 2017 World experience, which is Tier 1. But they have not been spectacular so far this season. Do Karen, Ashley and Mariah automatically rank before Bradie because they went to Worlds, even though it was longer ago? At what point does a World's score count less than a spectacular Lombardia score?
Can someone explain this, and better yet, why are the metrics not made public? If the decision is made simply on the metrics (and not corporate sponsorships) then there should be no fear of the USFSA opening their backroom door to this procedure.
- Joined
- Apr 16, 2006
American skaters also aren't getting free passes on URs and wrong edges like Evgenia does. Although I am happy to finally see some healthy rise in PCS for Karen, hope this keeps up...
Bradie's lutz technique seems quite unreliable. Just from the 2017 Nats FS video, the kick-back crossed behind the skating leg is really dangerous, and she was *really* close to skidding the landing. I would not bet on that lutz.
FYI I think Karen's 4th place at World's > Bradie's at Lombardia. But I think Skate America/Nationals 2018 will seal the deal.
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2012
leafy, what is your source for these criteria? A hard-copy document from USFS?
Is it available online to the public? (My guess is that it is not.)
I'm not arguing with you. Thanks for sharing.
Just grasping at straws -- cuz if it were available online, I would be rushing to take a closer look, esp. at the graph that you mentioned.
The comps in the three tiers are not unexpected, but if you are saying that you have an official USFS document for 2018 OWG, it is good to know that the selection criteria really are analogous to the criteria for 2017 Worlds.
And it's the first passage that you quoted that I find especially interesting -- the part about SBs, trending, etc.
I bet that different members of the USFS selection committee might have differing answers to the question.
I don't think any of us mere mortals on GS ever could answer that question definitively.
The tiers give us only a general idea of what comps are weighted more heavily than others.
I agree with Miss Ice that Karen's 4th at 2017 Worlds should be worth more than Bradie's 4th at Lombardia.
But I do not think any of us could be sure how the selection committee would view (for example) Mariah's 12th place (with 187.83) at 2017 Worlds in comparison to Bradie's 4th (with 196.70) at Lombardia.
When has Ashley ever said she's relying on others to make mistakes in order to make a podium? Its the last thing on her mind heading into a competition. She's certainly not relying on this as a strategy. If anything, its only people on here who seem to suggest that that's her strategy.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2011
It's located in the log-in area for all USFSA members, then under "General Info" and "Team Selection Procedures." It says "confidential" on it.
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2012
leafy, many thanks for your reply
.Glad to know that the OWG selection procedures are readily available to all USFS members.
[One of the things that bugged me in 2014 was that some people had the misconception that skaters had not been informed in advance of the selection criteria. The skaters had been informed at 2013 Champs Camp.]
Question:
Does the members-only site also show the selection procedures for 2018 Worlds?
If so, would you mind telling us whether/how the criteria for 2018 OWG differ from the criteria for 2018 Worlds?
Another misconception (among some) in 2014 was that 2014 Olympians by default should have been assigned to 2014 Worlds as well.
But the reality was that the 2014 OWG criteria were not identical to the 2014 Worlds criteria (which did not include 2013 GPs and 2013 Nats).
If so, would you mind telling us whether/how the criteria for 2018 OWG differ from the criteria for 2018 Worlds?
Another misconception (among some) in 2014 was that 2014 Olympians by default should have been assigned to 2014 Worlds as well.
But the reality was that the 2014 OWG criteria were not identical to the 2014 Worlds criteria (which did not include 2013 GPs and 2013 Nats).
I thought the same thing. Even though everyone was talking about Caroline heading into Nationals in 2008 Mirai stole the show and it should have been obvious that Caroline's terrible jump technique and being slow as molasses on the ice meant she wasn't going to be a contender as she got older. I couldn't understand why people weren't talking about Mirai even though she was a lot faster had better jumps skating skills and her spins were nearly as good too.
