2020-21 (and -22) Ladies' skating predictions/rankings

[Bluediamonds09]

1) Alexandra Trusova

2) Rika Kihira

3) Haein Lee (wishful thinking)

4) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

5) Loena Hendrickx (wishful thinking)

6) Ksenia Sinitsina

7) Alyona Kostornaya

8) Anna Shcherbakova

9) Alexia Paganini (wishful thinking)

10) Anastasiia Guliakova (wishful thinking)

Ok, so part of this is reality and parts are only in my dreams.

 

[Skatesocs]

 

[readernick]

Having watched Russian test skates I will venture some uneducated guesses about this season:

1. Rika Kihira

2. Alexandra Trusova

3/4. Anna Shcherbakova/ Alena Kostornaia (whoever restores their quad/3A first)

5. Wakaba Higuchi

6. Young You

7. Bradie Tennell

8. Mariah Bell

9. Haein Lee

10. Ksenia Sinitsina (just because I love her)

 

[sweetener]

After Test Skates:

1. Trusova
2. Kihira
3. Shcherbakova

 

[Skatesocs]

Hmm, this never really took off, but since we have a list of who is going to worlds from most countries now, I'd predict:

1. Anna Shcherbakova
2. Alexandra Trusova
3. Rika Kihira

4. Kaori Sakamoto
5. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
6. Bradie Tennell

7. Satoko Miyahara
8. Yelim Kim
9. Loena Hendricx

10. Karen Chen

Out of the top 10: Chen Hongyi, the Canadians, Haien Lee.

Which means I'd expect to see 3 spots for Japan and Russia - and no other country.

 

[kirauza343]

Barring disaster Anna, Sasha, and Rika will be the top 3. It’s just a matter of order, which could honestly go any way. My bias says Rika/Sasha/Anna but it just depends on how clean everyone is and what their layouts are (plus how strict the judging panel is...a strict one would hurt Anna while a lenient one would likely benefit her most). Someone else could get in here with mistakes from them but these are the three favorites.

Kaori/Bradie/Liza is another matchup that could go either way. Liza’s triple axels help up her tech score, but she’ll be behind in PCS. If she’s squeaky clean though she’ll be the favorite for fourth. Again it’ll really come down to who is the cleanest. A fourth place finish is not out of the question for Bradie, which would go a long way in helping the US gain three spots. Even then it’ll be difficult but if Bradie can deliver she’ll give the US a fighting chance.

Beyond these six it’s a bit harder (other than Satoko who’s a likely 7th) and I can see it going a lot of ways. It’s going to be interesting seeing how it all shakes out

 

[[email protected]]

Hmm, this never really took off, but since we have a list of who is going to worlds from most countries now, I'd predict:

1. Anna Shcherbakova
2. Alexandra Trusova
3. Rika Kihira

4. Kaori Sakamoto
5. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
6. Bradie Tennell

7. Satoko Miyahara
8. Yelim Kim
9. Loena Hendricx

10. Karen Chen

Out of the top 10: Chen Hongyi, the Canadians, Haien Lee.

Which means I'd expect to see 3 spots for Japan and Russia - and no other country.

I would think along similar lines:

1.Shcherbakova
2. Trusova
3. Kihira
4. Sakamoto
5. Tennell (sorry, Liza)
6. Tuktamysheva
7. Miyahara
8. Hendrixx
9. Kim
10. Chen

Russia/Japan - 3 spots, USA/Korea - 2 spots. The question is about Canada, France, China, and Italy. Can they get 2 spots? With just 1 skater they will limit their options for the team competition.

 

[macy]

I would think along similar lines:

1.Shcherbakova
2. Trusova
3. Kihira
4. Sakamoto
5. Tennell (sorry, Liza)
6. Tuktamysheva
7. Miyahara
8. Hendrixx
9. Kim
10. Chen

Russia/Japan - 3 spots, USA/Korea - 2 spots. The question is about Canada, France, China, and Italy. Can they get 2 spots? With just 1 skater they will limit their options for the team competition.

i don't see Loena placing above Karen unless she has a bad skate. i also don't think Kim has huge chances to place above her either, but it seems they both score around 200 when they skate relatively well. it could go either way. Satoko's scores haven't been great the last year or so, and she only scored 209 at nationals this year. if they ding her with URs she wont come close to that.

i agree 5th and 6th will be Tuk and Tennell in either order, but 7-10 are a toss up.

 

[Dreamer57]

i don't see Loena placing above Karen unless she has a bad skate. i also don't think Kim has huge chances to place above her either, but it seems they both score around 200 when they skate relatively well. it could go either way. Satoko's scores haven't been great the last year or so, and she only scored 209 at nationals this year. if they ding her with URs she wont come close to that.

i agree 5th and 6th will be Tuk and Tennell in either order, but 7-10 are a toss up.

Karen scored 204.90 points at Skate America in October, Loena scored 204.68 at Challenge Cup a few days ago. It will be interesting to see if either of them are in Top 6 after the SP.

Also if Bradie happens to finish above 5th then I do think the USA has a decent chance of earning 3 spots.

Is Worlds likely to be the last ISU competition this season or do we think the world team trophy has a chance of taking place?

 

[Skatesocs]

Personally think the best the US can do is 5+8. Don't see Tennell doing better than 5th. I also don't see Tuktamysheva beating Sakamoto. We could see:

1. Anna Shcherbakova
2. Alexandra Trusova
3. Rika Kihira

4. Kaori Sakamoto
5. Bradie Tennell
6. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

7. Satoko Miyahara
8. Karen Chen
9. Yelim Kim

10. Loena Hendricx

Then we can have 3 spots each for the US/Japan/Russia.

 

[Dawn825]

Is there a reason we have Loena Hendricx in the top ten and not Alexia Paginini? (I haven't seen either of them compete this year)

 

[chasingneverland]

Is there a reason we have Loena Hendricx in the top ten and not Alexia Paginini? (I haven't seen either of them compete this year)

Leona was at Budapest Trophy and Challenge Cup (last week) scoring 198 and 204, respectively. Alexia was at Nebelhorn scoring 168 but we haven't seen her since. (This was a bit of a disaster as she was good in the SP but fell twice in the FS and got hurt so...?)

 

[macy]

Personally think the best the US can do is 5+8. Don't see Tennell doing better than 5th. I also don't see Tuktamysheva beating Sakamoto. We could see:

1. Anna Shcherbakova
2. Alexandra Trusova
3. Rika Kihira

4. Kaori Sakamoto
5. Bradie Tennell
6. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

7. Satoko Miyahara
8. Karen Chen
9. Yelim Kim

10. Loena Hendricx

Then we can have 3 spots each for the US/Japan/Russia.

5 and 8 is all we need for 3 spots

 

[Olympic]

One sure thing about the ladies at 2021 Worlds - Kihira is destined for bronze and Shcherbakova / Trusova are going to be 1-2, probably in that order.

Ladies gets more exciting in the lower ranks - I honestly believe Tennell has a shot at 4th but she needs to go clean which seems to be in reach. She has made quite a comeback since the Fall. Tuk needs to land 2 3As to be 4th. What will happen? Sakamoto is right there but the other 2 IMO have a very slight edge. I love the Matrix program. Chen needs 8th (or 9th) and the door is open but 50-50 at best because of those URs. The US ladies dodged a bullet with the absence of Young You though. The top 10 will be Miyahara and probably the 2 KOR ladies.

 

[lzxnl]

One sure thing about the ladies at 2021 Worlds - Kihira is destined for bronze and Shcherbakova / Trusova are going to be 1-2, probably in that order.

Ladies gets more exciting in the lower ranks - I honestly believe Tennell has a shot at 4th but she needs to go clean which seems to be in reach. She has made quite a comeback since the Fall. Tuk needs to land 2 3As to be 4th. What will happen? Sakamoto is right there but the other 2 IMO have a very slight edge. I love the Matrix program. Chen needs 8th (or 9th) and the door is open but 50-50 at best because of those URs. The US ladies dodged a bullet with the absence of Young You though. The top 10 will be Miyahara and probably the 2 KOR ladies.

I would be wary of predicting the order of the top 3 so quickly. Any of the three could bomb. If Sasha goes for broke with four or five quads and lands everything, she wins, easy. However, it's very easy to have several falls on five quads, possibly enough for Rika to overtake her.

If Anna gets called for her lutz edges, as she should be, that's a lot of points she's going to lose, which could make things more interesting.

 

[GINO]

If Anna gets called for her lutz edges, as she should be, that's a lot of points she's going to lose, which could make things more interesting.

She will not have any calls as long as her coach is ET. Not getting ! for her lutz Anna has 5-6 extra points at every competition. It's not fair.

 

[Olympic]

^Yeah. I kinda qualified myself with my 1-2 comment in my initial post, but I think that judges will reward Shcherbakova's more traditional ice presence to Trusova's athletic presence. Trusova looks so much better this year: She doesn't bound up and down the ice to jump. There is serious attempts at in-betweens and choreography. I'm glad a Russian lady moved away from Eteri and showed improvement. It would IMO be a nice precedent to set. So, I think Trusova's improvements will keep her ahead of Kihira. One thing is that Kihira might lead after the SP if she is clean since she has a 3A (as does Tuk). The final group will probably be 3 Russians and Kihira. Since You is not going to be there, I think Tennell has a great shot of being the 5th lady and Sakamoto the 6th. I sincerely hope that Bradie has the UR thing under control. She usually is OK, but sometimes she tightens up and gets the carrot

 

[chasingneverland]

She will not have any calls as long as her coach is ET. Not getting ! for her lutz Anna has 5-6 extra points at every competition. It's not fair.

It doesn't have anything to do with her coach. It's the federation in international competitions that's influence is at play.

 

[Dawn825]

It doesn't have anything to do with her coach. It's the federation in international competitions that's influence is at play.

But the federation clearly supports Anna more than Sasha because of who her coach is. Sasha got edge calls at Nationals because she left Eteri. Calling her nationally gives permission for judges to call her internationally. So it amounts to the the same thing.

 

[Skatesocs]

Shcherbakova did get edge called when she was competing internationally (and got UR called too), so I wouldn't be too quick to assume she won't be at Worlds.

I wouldn't assume National calls will affect international calls. Trusova will be going here as Russian No. 2. RusFed made big noise when their skaters were getting called in the 2019-20 season - no reason to assume Trusova won't be an international benefactor of this, even if we were to grant she's lost national favour.