Jason Brown | Page 726 | Golden Skate

Jason Brown

Lunalovesskating

Moonbear power 🐻
Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 3, 2018
Guys, I am so excited to see Jason next week! I cannot wait. It has been too long since Skate America. I need to see his sunny smile and beautiful skating again.
 

MGstyle

Crawling around on the ice after chestnuts
Medalist
Joined
Sep 1, 2015
It does look like the road to Turin has been all laid out for Jason as everything stands now, and I am all the more nervous just because of it!!! More than once his nerves let him down, and it's in Japan of all places... :drama: I will have to put on a headset and pound that damn song "Don't STop Believin" into my head on a loop until next weekend... :hpull:
 

Tavi...

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
Wow, what a weekend- both Evgenia and Gracie showed so much strength and resilience and triumphed in spirit. I’m so happy for both of them, and I’m hoping Jason will do the same next week. I can’t wait to see him skate again and see his beautiful programs again.
 

fzztsimmons

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 14, 2018
Honestly I am sick with nerves at the thought of NHK already. Absolutely no way I'm going to be able to watch him skate, will be a case of distracting myself for 4 minutes and then constantly refreshing Jackie Wong's twitter page so I can see if he skated clean....
 

Tavi...

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
Okay, now that NHK is almost upon us, any thoughts on what we might see from Jason?

- better fitting pants for the FS? :)devil: )
- the same kind of calm control we saw in the SA FS :)pray:)
- a 4S replacing the 3S in the FS :)scratch2:)
- a triple loop in the FS :)drama:)
- the traditional NHK / OMG I might make the GP nerves and underperformance :)drama: :sad21: :dev2:)
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I think it’s likely we’ll see a variation of last year’s layout. My guess:
3A-3T (or 2t)
4S
3A

3S
3z-3T
3F-2t (or 3T)-2lox
3Lox
 
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Tavi...

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
I think it’s likely we’ll see a variation of last year’s layout. My guess:
3A-3T (or 2t)
4S
3A

3S
3z-3T
3F-2t (or 3T)-2lox
3Lox

Hmm. Haven’t thought about layout much. I am kinda on the fence about putting in 4S right now. If he has an otherwise clean SP but he falls on 4S and gets a <<, would he be risking making the GPF? If so, which is more important to him? Also, if he does have a bad fall, would he be able to skate the rest of the program clean (I’m thinking Nats 2018).

By the way, I don’t remember what he did last season but with a planned 4S and 3S couldn’t he potentially zayak if he pops the 4S to a triple rather than a double? I’ve always assumed that’s why he no longer does 3Z-eu-3S.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
He was doing 4S attempts during practices at SKAM, which is why I’m inclined to think he’ll put them back in. Whether it’s a good idea or not is another matter. I also think we’re dealing with a different Jason in 2019 then at 2018 Nationals, so how he’d deal with a missed 4S will probably be better, or I’d like to think so.

Last year, he repeated 3A and 3T. My guess if he pops the 4S into a 3S, he’d simply do a 2t instead of a 3t on one is the combos.

Anyway we’ll find out soon!
 
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Tavi...

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
I know - so amazing that the GP season is coming to a close already! And I love both programs so looking forward to seeing his progress.

Re handling falls, I would agree he’s a different person now - and let’s face it, the GPF isn’t the Olympics. As to whether to put it in, I guess it depends on how well it goes in practice and if he feels like getting it out there is the most important thing right now and if the risk of missing the GPF is worth it. Of course he wouldn’t necessarily miss out on the GPF if he has an unsuccessful 4S - but I think you have to consider worst case scenario when assessing risk.

By the way, I’d ask how the 4S looked at SA practice but if I recall he wasn’t at his best during SA practice. Hopefully if he does put it in and pop it at NHK he will have that plan B ready to go!
 

el henry

Go have some cake. And come back with jollity.
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2014
Country
United-States
Not gonna lie, my eyes aren’t what they used to be, and I saw 4S as 45, and though, Jason jumped 45 times at practice:eeking:

Well, after that flurry of activity at SA, it was difficult to have Jason radio silence again for this month. :drama:

Just hoping for the eye of the tiger:pray:
 

Tavi...

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
Ha ha - well superstitious as I am :drama:, I don’t want anyone putting too much pressure on Jason, so when I took a peek at the predictions thread, I was quite uncomfortable with the number of people placing him second (predictions are basically 2-5). Then I remembered the GPF analysis thread (paraphrasing one person who is apparently not his biggest fan: Jason always falls apart at NHK, so no way he makes the GPF) and immediately felt safe again. :)

Jackie Wong do NOT jinx him again with your predictions. :dev2:
 

Interspectator

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 25, 2012
I'm nervous for Jason as well, but seeing the results this year in a positive light, I want to believe that bad patterns can be broken. This can be the year Jason tramples the NHK curse to the ground. Fingers crossed.
 

Bookseller

Final Flight
Joined
May 28, 2018
Country
United-States
Okay, now that NHK is almost upon us, any thoughts on what we might see from Jason?

- better fitting pants for the FS? :)devil: )
- the same kind of calm control we saw in the SA FS :)pray:)
- a 4S replacing the 3S in the FS :)scratch2:)
- a triple loop in the FS :)drama:)
- the traditional NHK / OMG I might make the GP nerves and underperformance :)drama: :sad21: :dev2:)

Actually hoping that they don't add the 4S at NHK in the free. Two clean, well executed skates are probably all that he needs there. But if he makes GPF, then I think they should try the 4S in the SP But without intel on how training is going, it's hard to know what they are thinking. If he lands a clean 3A in the SP and lands all his jumps in SL including the 3L in the last combo, he should score well into the 90s in the SP and better his FS score from SKAM and that should be enough to get him into GPF. Which would put him in good position for World's. I guess it depends on what the long game is from his and his team's perspective.
 

Tavi...

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
Most importantly, Jason should not pay attention to people advancing the preposterous notion that he has some "NHK curse" and similar superstitions. He only skated 2 times at NHK (placing 7th and 4th, respectively). The sample size is ridiculously small to infer a pattern based on that. The mind is a very powerful thing. It's important for him to get rid of that "there's an NHK curse" mentality. There's no such thing. He should be telling himself that while things may not have gone as planned previously at this competition, it is perfectly within his capabilities to do better this time. By the way, placing 4th as last time would still allow him to qualify (unless Hanyu has a disaster skate and Ignatov and Aymoz are both on the podium), so no pressure, everything will be just fine, and he has some margin for a few errors.

Ah numbers! So objective, so dispassionate, so calming to the nerves! :) Hopefully Jason agrees with you and is just focusing calmly on what he needs to do and is not worrying about the past. I confess though, that I’m one of the silly ones who do sometimes worry about the “curse,” even though I know it’s nonsensical. It’s not just that he underperformed twice. It’s also that he had to withdraw from his first scheduled appearance at NHK due to a back injury that kept him out 6 months, and that the following year when he was in essentially the same position as now (silver at SA and good chance for GPF), he severely underperformed and placed 7th due to undiagnosed stress fractures in his landing foot, which kept him out another couple of months. So not statistically significant, but...still inextricably linked in my mind. :drama:

@bookseller, trying the 4S in the SP before it’s solid is probably not a good idea. It’s more pressure bc with fewer elements, if he misses it, it could put him in a hole. I would rather see clean programs at NHK and no 4S too, but it really depends on their strategy / goals for rest of season.
 

el henry

Go have some cake. And come back with jollity.
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2014
Country
United-States
I appreciate the analysis, IcyMathStats but sadly they will not calm my pagan soul. :drama:

So now I must offer perfect oblations to the skating gods:pray:
 

MGstyle

Crawling around on the ice after chestnuts
Medalist
Joined
Sep 1, 2015
Actually hoping that they don't add the 4S at NHK in the free. Two clean, well executed skates are probably all that he needs there. But if he makes GPF, then I think they should try the 4S in the SP But without intel on how training is going, it's hard to know what they are thinking. If he lands a clean 3A in the SP and lands all his jumps in SL including the 3L in the last combo, he should score well into the 90s in the SP and better his FS score from SKAM and that should be enough to get him into GPF. Which would put him in good position for World's. I guess it depends on what the long game is from his and his team's perspective.

This is exactly my thoughts. I doubt Ignatov will deliver again the same SP at NHK, as he did at Rostelecom. Even if he does, if Jason just plays his game in his way without panicking, he should lead with his overall quality of skating, with the amount of GOE and PCS. At GPF, where it would be like a cherry on top of the icing for him just to be present, it would be a perfect occasion to try out his 4S if he feels ready for it. Ironically there will be less pressure there (or so I assume), perhaps there will be more chance of him actually succeeding, and that can lead up to more confidence.
And compared to last year's S&G program, Jason is emotionally invested in and connected with SL, that also should make a big difference.
I am using all my might to pound any positive thoughts into my head now.
In any case, I am expecting the long anticipated smiley update on IG any time now, on the flight to Japan with that vibe, "wakuwaku shite-masuuuu!!" (I am sooooo excited!) :hap10:
 

Bookseller

Final Flight
Joined
May 28, 2018
Country
United-States
@bookseller, trying the 4S in the SP before it’s solid is probably not a good idea. It’s more pressure bc with fewer elements, if he misses it, it could put him in a hole. I would rather see clean programs at NHK and no 4S too, but it really depends on their strategy / goals for rest of season.

Agreed. I would assume that he will not attempt it unless it is solid in training and practice. Tracy expressed hope that he might do one this season, but there was no definite expectation of it due to his lost training time. I guess that my concern about attempting the 4S in SL and failing, is that it would damage the program so severely by not only losing jump points but breaking the mood which is so critical for that program to be a success. As has been stated, he needs to finish at least 4th to qualify for the GPF and he probably doesn't need the quad to do that. So the better strategy might be to leave it out for NHK. I guess we'll know soon!
 

Tavi...

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
Agreed. I would assume that he will not attempt it unless it is solid in training and practice. Tracy expressed hope that he might do one this season, but there was no definite expectation of it due to his lost training time. I guess that my concern about attempting the 4S in SL and failing, is that it would damage the program so severely by not only losing jump points but breaking the mood which is so critical for that program to be a success. As has been stated, he needs to finish at least 4th to qualify for the GPF and he probably doesn't need the quad to do that. So the better strategy might be to leave it out for NHK. I guess we'll know soon!

Yes, we’ll know soon - and get to see both programs again!

I understand your concern about breaking the mood in the FS, absolutely. But when the time comes, I still think he’s better off introducing 4S in the FS. It’s just less risky, for a lot of reasons. So I would be surprised if they decided to put it into the SP before it was solid in the FS.

Anyway, what they do really depends on strategy. If he and the team decide that making the GPF this year - and maybe trying for a bronze medal there - is really important to set him up for the Olympics, then I’d guess they would just focus on skating clean and trying to maximize PCS/ GOE. If getting the quad out is most important and they don’t feel the GPF is that important right now, they may risk it at NHK.

I’ve seen comments that )with the exception of Yuzuru) this is a “weak” field, but I disagree. There are quite a few guys who haven’t hit yet this year but who have the potential to score highly if they have the skate of their lives. So I don’t think Jason placing 4th or above is a given.
 
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