Preliminary Entries 2013 Trophée Eric Bompard

Ziggy said:

Pogorilaya will have something to say about that.

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I estimate Ashley has at least a 2 (major) mistake cushion over Pogorilaya, maybe 3 if Ashley has fixed her spin levels.

Please note I actually am quite taken with Pogorilya and hope that if Sotnikova and Tukt continue on in this fashion the Russian fed will give her the 2nd Oly spot (assuming she continues to preform well, too, of course). However, if both skate clean (and this is assuming Ashley continues on with the triple triple combos, obviously), it will be

Ashley
20 points
Pogorilaya

The only person that can challenge Ashley clean is Sotnikova and as we all know that is

In other words, you agree that Wagner has to do more than just show up to win. ;P

I think Pogo will get a substantial PCS boost now as well because of having won CoC.

Ziggy said:

In other words, you agree that Wagner has to do more than just show up to win. ;P

I think Pogo will get a substantial PCS boost now as well because of having won CoC.

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Not exactly but I do think she has a strong advantage and will win if clean. If (and again, it is impossible, but still) she makes a mistake and Sotnikova is clean I think Sotnikova wins. And I don't think she can expect to fall all over the ice and win- a fall in her short would put her in a much worse place and even the field somewhat between her and Pogorilaya if Pogo is clean and does get a PCS boost as you predict. Also, Ashley is more likely to UR than Pogo. I don't think it is impossible for Pogo to win, but yes, I do think if both are truly clean, obviously Wagner will win.