Chan's plans for the next quadrennial- your best guess

As for men, that is the hardest to project but most likely Canada will be much weaker than 2014 there too regardless if they are sending an old past his prime Chan, a probably not right at the top Nguyen, a not really elite and now old Reynolds.

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Ouch. But true. That being said, I'm not sure Russia will earn 19 points in men again even against a subpar Canada, regardless of whether they send Kovtun/Gachinski/Pitkeev/Petrov/some combination of Voronov, Plush, or Menshov who are magically still around. Granted, Russia doesn't need to earn the same number of points in men, if Canada ends up earning less than the 17 they did in Sochi (not unlikely).

I, too, am not seeing Canada overtaking Russia.

In general I dont see Russia slowing down or being any weaker than 2014, if anything maybe even stronger. They wont have the home cooked scoring they benefited from in Sochi, yet as things look now they will probably remain dominant or even grow more dominant in pairs, grow even more dominant in ladies and be able to win legitimately with one of their newer skaters rather than through corruption only as Sotnikova did in Sochi. Then if Kovtun isnt completely worthless (and I do think he is very overhyped) he should make Russia a bigger force than they have been in mens since 2010, and that includes Plushenko's brief return, which isnt saying much. It is true Plushenko did overachieve in the team portion of the Games for a variety of mostly coincidental reasons. Their dance should be atleast as strong as 2014 which was only being amongst the bronze pack contenders. Who knows they might be better than that.

By contrast Canada is very likely to be weaker. They are likely losing two of their biggest stars ever- Chan and Virtue & Moir, and even if Chan is in Korea he wont be the force of 2014. Those are big shoes to fill, and while I am sure Canada will have some to emerge someday down the road to fill them, I am not sure if anyone on the 2018 squad will fill them. They also will be hard pressed to have two very strong top 5 world pairs like 2014. As much as I like them it is probably unlikely Weaver & Poje will ever be as great as Virtue & Moir, not impossible, but probably not likely. Granted the field will be different so they could be equally as much or even slightly more (eg- maybe favorites for gold, although not outright predicting that) in 2018, even if they never reach V&M's level. Nguyen might never be as good as Chan, and even if he is someday it probably would be the post 2018 years. 2018 a good and more realistic situation for him would be to be where Chan was in 2014, where he will be the same age Chan was in 2010. The pairs are almost certain to be alot weaker in 2018. The ladies hopefully will be stronger, but I doubt they will be anywhere near Russia.

Now looking 4 years ahead is almost impossible anyway, and there will probably be many new skaters we dont know anything about now, some juniors we notice a bit now who will do things we arent anticipating, and others who dont. Some of the current skaters will surprise with what they do or dont do. However as things look now it would seem to point to a Russian team just as strong and a Canadian team weaker. So no reason to see Canada having anything more than a real outside shot at the Team gold in 2018 (and FWIW if Canada did win the Team gold in 2018 I would be thrilled).

It may be fun predicting the Olympics four years from now but really how good are people at predicting the outcome of a next day competition? Where were Hanyu, Sotnikova, and V/T four years ago in people's awareness as potential OG Medalists? And a kid from Kazakhstan to win an Olympic medal? Hey, maybe the next Olympic champions in Pairs or Dance will be from Japan! Or Brazil. :confused2:

The only way Kovtun's going to surpass Plushenko's results in 2010 is if he wins OGM in 2018. I'm not seeing that in the cards right now. Unless you mean Plushenko (+ Gachinski/Voronov/Menshov) post-Vancouver up to present day, when he bounced from injury to injury and barely competed. In which case, yeah, Kovtun (+ Gachinski/Pitkeev/Petrov) should do better than that over the next quad unless he's totally useless.

EDIT: SkateFiguring does have a point though. I actually expect the next men's champion to be someone we haven't heard from yet.

SkateFiguring said:

It may be fun predicting the Olympics four years from now but really how good are people at predicting the outcome of a next day competition? Where were Hanyu, Sotnikova, and V/T four years ago in people's awareness as potential OG Medalists? And a kid from Kazakhstan to win an Olympic medal? Hey, maybe the next Olympic champions in Pairs or Dance will be from Japan! Or Brazil. :confused2:

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Yes but the Team Event is the easiest to make some reasonable forecasts of what might happen as it isnt about assessing just one skater, but the overall strength of a countries program and depth across all events moving foward.

Sandpiper said:

The only way Kovtun's going to surpass Plushenko's results in 2010 is if he wins OGM in 2018.

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I said best since 2010, aka that doesnt include 2010, it just means what has happened since. I also dont see Kovtun on the individual podium in 2018 (but admit I could be completely wrong on that), but if he is even a top 5 or 6 skater in the world he has a good shot to place 1st or 2nd in the team event mens competition. I dare say if Kovtun isnt atleast beating Nguyen, Reynolds, Firus, or 28 year old comebacking Chan by 2018, to atleast match how Russia did vs Canada in the team portion in 2014 even with Plushenko's surprising overperformance (especialy the short program), he will have either been an epic failure; or people like Nguyen or Firus an unexpectedly early or unexpected altogether huge success.

pangtongfan said:

Yes but the Team Event is the easiest to make some reasonable forecasts of what might happen as it isnt about assessing just one skater, but the overall strength of a countries program and depth across all events moving foward.

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Yes. And although I would certainly love to see Brazil with a top Dance team or something, the chance that Brazil would contend for a team medal in 4 years is almost nonexistent.

breathesgelatin said:

Yes. And although I would certainly love to see Brazil with a top Dance team or something, the chance that Brazil would contend for a team medal in 4 years is almost nonexistent.

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Indeed for all the things that could happen, that would still never happen. Even if Brazil has a miracelous rise in pairs or dance, or Japan for that matter, it would take years to reach OGM status. China's rise in skating, and especialy pairs, is the most incredible rise from nowhere ever in the sport probably, and it still took them 6 Olympics (84 to 2006) to even have OGM contending pairs, and 7 (84 to 2010) to ultimately win their first.

Sandpiper said:

The only way Kovtun's going to surpass Plushenko's results in 2010 is if he wins OGM in 2018. I'm not seeing that in the cards right now. Unless you mean Plushenko (+ Gachinski/Voronov/Menshov) post-Vancouver up to present day, when he bounced from injury to injury and barely competed. In which case, yeah, Kovtun (+ Gachinski/Pitkeev/Petrov) should do better than that over the next quad unless he's totally useless.

EDIT: SkateFiguring does have a point though. I actually expect the next men's champion to be someone we haven't heard from yet.

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I think he has the potential to challenge for the OGM in 2018. He's already developed consistency on his 4T and 4S, and I'm betting he'll be making 3 quad - 2 triple axel programs his standard. His main issue is consistency, but I'm already impressed with him adding a second quad in the tail end of his junior season, and adding a 4S in his first GP season. And his artistry can only improve.

There's no way he's matching Plushenko's achievements though - the field is too competitive, and the demands on skaters under CoP are just too demanding at this point to allow a skater to skate as consistently as Yagudin/Plushenko/etc. I can however picture Kovtun eventually doing a program with greater difficulty than anything Plushenko ever did (3 quads and 2 axels; and he'll probably learn to do the half-loop sequence; and also add in a 3F).

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

I think he has the potential to challenge for the OGM in 2018.

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I dont agree at all, but if you do feel that way, then it makes it even more unbelievable you are arguing that Canada would have a better chance at Team Gold in 2018 than 2014. So lets break this all down, Russia is probably dominant and far stronger than Canada in pairs, even if you dont see Russia as strong as me and Canada as weak it is still clear Russia should be ahead in pairs. Russia will obviously be 99% likely to be far stronger than Canada in womens. You believe they will have a potential OGM man. So where on earth would Canada ever gain the points to win. Is Russia going to come 7th and 4th in the team portions of the ice dancing or something. Sorry they arent going to be that bad. Although if Kovtun is really a legit OGM contender in mens singles by then (although he could possibly come 2nd and 1st in the team event portions even being nowhere near that, given the forseeable team breakdown), Russia would probably win Team Gold, or atleast stay above Canada, even with a 7th and 4th in ice dancing.

pangtongfan said:

I said best since 2010, aka that doesnt include 2010, it just means what has happened since. I also dont see Kovtun on the individual podium in 2018 (but admit I could be completely wrong on that), but if he is even a top 5 or 6 skater in the world he has a good shot to place 1st or 2nd in the team event mens competition. I dare say if Kovtun isnt atleast beating Nguyen, Reynolds, Firus, or 28 year old comebacking Chan by 2018, to atleast match how Russia did vs Canada in the team portion in 2014 even with Plushenko's surprising overperformance (especialy the short program), he will have either been an epic failure; or people like Nguyen or Firus an unexpectedly early or unexpected altogether huge success.

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Okay, agreed. I apologize for misunderstanding. I got a bit confused because you said "including Plushenko's comeback" and in my head his comeback was the '09-10 Olympic season. But I guess you can call 2012 Europeans a second comeback... and maybe even Sochi a third comeback.

I can see Kovtun on the podium (I wouldn't bet on it but it's a decent possibility)... but not at the top of the podium. Even without Koreavengeance.

I feel like getting Chan back in 2018 would still be a much better bet than pushing Reynolds. Reynolds already has UR issues (if anything, he overperformed in the team event... and Chan underperformed. Plush just came out and did his customary skates... which arguably is overperforming considering what he's been through). The judges are really not enamoured with him outside of the quads, and he isn't even consistent at those. They're the same age. I fear that injury will eat into Kevin like they did the quad king of the past era, Timothy Goebel. I'll be happy for Kevin if he even makes it to the next Olympics.

Lol, Firus. I'd forgotten about him. His performance at the Olympics left a big scar in my brain and I've since tried my best to erase the memory. Apologies to any Firus fans out there, but that wasn't a skate I wanted to see at the Olympics...

Yeah if Chan comes back for 2018 I am almost certain he would be ahead of Reynolds who would be just as old, and likely past his prime as well. I would be surprised if Reynold's 2013 doesnt forever remain his career peak as well. However there is no saying he is even likely to want to skate in 2018, it is probably 40-60 at absolute best, which is why I was covering all the possabilities of who might be their #1, #2, or used in the Team Event then.

Sandpiper said:

I can see Kovtun on the podium (I wouldn't bet on it but it's a decent possibility)... but not at the top of the podium. Even without Koreavengeance.

Lol, Firus. I'd forgotten about him. His performance at the Olympics left a big scar in my brain and I've since tried my best to erase the memory. Apologies to any Firus fans out there, but that wasn't a skate I wanted to see at the Olympics...

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Poor Firus. He's one of my fave skaters, and very talented, just not consistent.

Yeah, I think Kovtun is more likely to be on the podium than the top of it... but I think Sochi men's shows us anything could happen, and all you need is one skater to have the programs of their lives. Hah, even with Koreavengeance.

Sorry, as you guys can probably tell, I'm only posting to get the word Koreavengeance out there.

I don't see how Sochi men's shows how "anything" can happen. Hanyu was already prepped as Chan's biggest rival, and it's not surprising that he would win when Chan faltered. The only "surprise" might be just how badly both of them faltered (but considering how the men have been skating the whole quad...), but the podium wasn't a surprise. Ten nearly unseated Chan in 2013, and not to mention he only got bronze because Javi Zayaked.

Granted, Hanyu was... I don't know where... in 2010, and Ten was far from the podium. Our predictions are indeed premature when it comes to singles. I wouldn't be surprised if 2018 podium were Hanyu + two current unknowns (with Hanyu not necessarily at the top).

That performance by Firus... :no: Him and Paul Bonifacio Parkinson were my two nightmares of Sochi.

pangtongfan said:

Yes but the Team Event is the easiest to make some reasonable forecasts of what might happen as it isnt about assessing just one skater, but the overall strength of a countries program and depth across all events moving foward.

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Not necessarily. It's not about the depth but the best one in each discipline. US has more depth than Canada in most disciplines but came in third after Canada in Team event.

US has more depth than Canada in most disciplines but came in third after Canada in Team event.

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??? US has better women. Canada has better men and pairs. Ice dance is about equal at best (D/W have been beating V/M, but Weaver/Poje > any US team).

I'm hardly a very nationalistic Canadian (perfectly happy that Russia won the team event), but I don't understand your statement.

Sandpiper said:

Sorry, as you guys can probably tell, I'm only posting to get the word Koreavengeance out there.

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I'm so going to use that in a sentence today.

Meh, I only wish for P.Chan and Hanyu both will be back in the next Olympic and be clean in their FS because it was painful for them at Sochi.
I hope Koreavengence will not happen, for the sake of figure skating. hwell:

Sandpiper said:

??? US has better women. Canada has better men and pairs. Ice dance is about equal at best (D/W have been beating V/M, but Weaver/Poje > any US team).

I'm hardly a very nationalistic Canadian (perfectly happy that Russia won the team event), but I don't understand your statement.

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US has many more good Men skaters than Canada which however has one top skater. In Dance, US had two Worlds medal couples the last quad whereas Canada had just one. Pairs is definitely a very weak discipline for the US, mainly because of lack of commitment and perseverance in partnerships.

Where were all these good men skaters over the past quad? I agree Canada isn't fantastic outside of Chan (as you can tell by my thoughts on Firus), but US doesn't have enough men to outweigh Chan.

With Weaver/Poje's silver, I don't think Canada's behind the US in dance. Even if Canada is behind, the gap there is smaller than the gap in men and pairs.

Well , if things will develop in the future as it is going right now propably Hanyu will be in next quad in current position of Chan ahead of Olympics, and I will be not surprised at all if there will rise his own Hanyu ho will be hunting him


We can predict anything, but anything can happen. Three years ago everyone would say that there is no one to beat Chan in Olympics and then Hanyu came up I will no predict anything 4 years forward