2014 Rostelecom Cup Short Dance 11/14
- Thread starter dorispulaski
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Plus, since I & Z finished fourth at CoC, there is virtually no chance of their making the GPF even should they win CoR, so no one will have a good reason to be politicking for them.
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Russia invited them, and China invited them.
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While exhaustion certainly might take it's toll, I/Z have already managed to make a good impression. They had higher skating skills than Cappellini/Lanotte (I thought they deserved higher), and with the score they got, they would have won bronze at Skate America and placed in front of Monko/Khaliavan at Skate Canada. The fact that they managed to do so well at their first event bodes well for the future. And it's also so nice to see them so happy after each program :agree:
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I wouldn't be so pessimistic. Yuzuru Hanyu made 2011 GPF finishing fourth and first in his GP events. The chance is small, but it's still there.
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While this does happen in men's, it is not likely. in dance, where falls are few. Effectively,the only way for it to happen in dance is for some team placing ahead of them to be injured and withdraw.
Shibs are already ahead of what I&Z can get with their 26 points. Even with a win, the most I&Z can earn is 24 points. 9 for fourth and 15 for first.
Chock & Bates, Weaver & Poje and Papadakis and Cizeron will all be ahead of I&Z if they place third or above in their second event. C&B have by far the highest scores this year, so chances are, they will be ahead of I&Z on the first tie break even if they scored as low as fourth at CoR. W&P are odds on favorites to win NHK. P&C have lower scores than C&B and W&P, but it is highly unlikely that they will be lower than third at home at TEB. That leaves only 2 slots available for I&Z to compete for.
C&L, S&B, and H&D all have a third place finish, and a better chance.
Coomes & Buckland, Hawayek & Baker, and of course, Sinitsina & Katsalapov, have all yet to compete. There is a good chance that one of these teams will be second at COR and have a good chance to be second at their next event.
Pretty much, I&Z have to win to have any chance at all, and even that is not a great chance.
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2014/gpsdance.htm
Shibs are already ahead of what I&Z can get with their 26 points. Even with a win, the most I&Z can earn is 24 points. 9 for fourth and 15 for first.
Chock & Bates, Weaver & Poje and Papadakis and Cizeron will all be ahead of I&Z if they place third or above in their second event. C&B have by far the highest scores this year, so chances are, they will be ahead of I&Z on the first tie break even if they scored as low as fourth at CoR. W&P are odds on favorites to win NHK. P&C have lower scores than C&B and W&P, but it is highly unlikely that they will be lower than third at home at TEB. That leaves only 2 slots available for I&Z to compete for.
C&L, S&B, and H&D all have a third place finish, and a better chance.
Coomes & Buckland, Hawayek & Baker, and of course, Sinitsina & Katsalapov, have all yet to compete. There is a good chance that one of these teams will be second at COR and have a good chance to be second at their next event.
Pretty much, I&Z have to win to have any chance at all, and even that is not a great chance.
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2014/gpsdance.htm
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In 2011: http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2011/gpsmen.htm
You had a situation where there were five different winners and all those winners (except Patrick) dropped to third in their second event.
So for a similar situation to pan out:
COR: I/K, Coomes and Buckland (or Kastalapov/Sinasina), Chock & Bates finishes in this order
TEB: Cappellini/Lanotte, Hubbell and Donohue, Papadakis and Cizeron, Gilles and Portier finish in that order.
NHK: Coomes & Buckland, Kastalapov/Sinasina (or the reverse) finish 1 & 2 Weaver & Poje finishes 3rd.
So the result would be
Coomes/Buckland (or K/S): 28 points
Chock/Bates: 26 points
Weaver/Poje 26 points
Shibutanis 26 points
I/K 24 points
H/D 24 points (loses tiebreaker)
---
G/P 22 points
This seems like a very unlikely situation. But then again nobody expected Cappellini/Lanotte to do so poorly either, so who knows.
You had a situation where there were five different winners and all those winners (except Patrick) dropped to third in their second event.
So for a similar situation to pan out:
COR: I/K, Coomes and Buckland (or Kastalapov/Sinasina), Chock & Bates finishes in this order
TEB: Cappellini/Lanotte, Hubbell and Donohue, Papadakis and Cizeron, Gilles and Portier finish in that order.
NHK: Coomes & Buckland, Kastalapov/Sinasina (or the reverse) finish 1 & 2 Weaver & Poje finishes 3rd.
So the result would be
Coomes/Buckland (or K/S): 28 points
Chock/Bates: 26 points
Weaver/Poje 26 points
Shibutanis 26 points
I/K 24 points
H/D 24 points (loses tiebreaker)
---
G/P 22 points
This seems like a very unlikely situation. But then again nobody expected Cappellini/Lanotte to do so poorly either, so who knows.
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I think in this current landscape of ice dance, anything is possible. C/L winning CoC was the most likely scenario, so that's what I predicted, but it's not too strange for them to have a meltdown. What really surprised me was the Shibutanis not winning instead though.
I think ice dance has become the most unpredictable discipline, where a mistake sends you whizzing into oblivion. Didn't people once complain about it being the exact opposite?
That being said, I think Mrs. P and Doris are correct about the politics not being in I/Z's favour. The Russian Fed is more likely to support S/K or S/B; they want someone in that final.
I think ice dance has become the most unpredictable discipline, where a mistake sends you whizzing into oblivion. Didn't people once complain about it being the exact opposite?
That being said, I think Mrs. P and Doris are correct about the politics not being in I/Z's favour. The Russian Fed is more likely to support S/K or S/B; they want someone in that final.
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I guess the russians will push for S&B since they have a better chance for the finals.
The interesting thing is how would they mark S&K and I&Z.
However, I think I&Z are more interested to skate well and back up the statement they made with their debut.
This is a long battle and it hasn't even started yet. I don't think they thought they were going to win their GP's in their first year together and after 6 months only.
I will be pretty mad though if the russians will give to S&K more points than I&Z for the SS.
I don't need to see them to know that they are not anywhere near them in that aspect.
Snow63 is right. The air during warm up will be electric.
I think ice dance has become the most unpredictable discipline, where a mistake sends you whizzing into oblivion. Didn't people once complain about it being the exact opposite?
Because there is no outstanding couple in ID at the moment, IMO.
Last year Russian Federation worked very hard for Bobrova/Solviev in cup of russia -they even got results they wanted 
- but making Grand Prix Final over Ilinykh/Katsalapov didn't give any advantage to Bobrova/Soloviev. Hope this year, there will be less ''russian politiks''
- but making Grand Prix Final over Ilinykh/Katsalapov didn't give any advantage to Bobrova/Soloviev. Hope this year, there will be less ''russian politiks''
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I agree with elif above. Also, wouldn't it be more logical for them to support two teams with already established good results and promising potential for Worlds/Europeans, over a team that is, at this particular moment, an unknown? :scratch:
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