Ladies after 5 GP events | Golden Skate

Ladies after 5 GP events

BravesSkateFan

Medalist
Joined
Aug 7, 2003
Holy tiebreakers Batman!!

So there are 5 skaters competing at NHK that can mathematically make it to the final and knock Ashley (24) and/or Rika(22) out of the last two spots.

Satoko Miyahara (11)
Gracie Gold (11)
Kanako Murakami (11)
Polina Edmunds (9)
Gabrielle Daleman (7)


If either Gracie, Satoko or Kanako finish in 1st and one of the other two in 2nd. The first place finisher will go to the final (26 points) and the 2nd place finisher(24) will have to go to the 2nd+ tie breaker with Ashley (both would have 2nd place for the first tie breaker).

If either Gracie, Satoko or Kanako finish in 1st and any other skater besides theses 3 finishes 2nd. Then the 1st place finisher (26) will go to the final and Ashley will go to the final.

If Polina finishes 1st and either Gracie, Satoko or Kanako finish 2nd . Polina(24) will make the final on the 1st tie breaker and the 2nd place finisher (24) will have to go to the 2nd tie breaker with Ashley.

If Polina finishes 1st and anyone other than Gracie, Satoko or Kanako finishes 2nd. Polina (24) and Ashley (24) will both make the final.

If Polina finishes 2nd (22), someone other than Gracie, Satoko, Kanako or Gabrielle finishes 1st and either Gracie, Satoko or Kanako finish in 3rd (22) Ashley will go to the final and Rika (22) will go to the final on the tie breaker.

If Gabrielle finishes 1st (22) and Polina finishes 2nd (22). Ashley (24) makes the final. Polina loses to Gabrielle & Rika (both 22) on the first tiebreaker and Gabrielle will go to the 2nd tiebreaker with Rika.


If Gabrielle finishes 1st (22), anyone other than Gracie, Satoko, Kanako or Polina finishes 2nd and either Gracie, Satoko or Kanko finishes 3rd (22). Ashely(24) goes to the final the 3rd place finisher loses on the first tiebreaker, and Gabrielle will go to the 2nd tiebreaker with Rika.

There are a few more scenarios if none of the contenders finish in the top 3 or if neither Gracie, Satoko or Kanko finish in the top 3, but the likelihood of that happening is slim and I already spent a lot of time on this so I'm leaving those out :)

So....

*Gracie, Satoko, or Kanako will make the final if:
-she finishes 1st
-she finishes 2nd, one of the other 2 finishes 1st and she wins the 2nd tiebreaker against Ashley.
-she finishes 2nd, Polina finishes first and she wins the 2nd tie breaker against Ashley

*Polina will only make the final if she finishes 1st, but her spot will be guaranteed

*Gabrielle will only make the final if she comes in 1st, Gracie, Satoko & Kanako finish no higher than 3rd and she wins tiebreaker with Rika.

*Ashley will make the final if
-Two of the following: Gracie, Satoko or Kanko, finish 1st and 2nd and she wins the 2nd tiebreaker against the 2nd place finisher
-Gracie, Satoko or Kanako finish 1st and any other skater besides those three finishes 2nd
-Polina finishes 1st; Gracie, Satoko or Kanako finish 2nd and she wins the 2nd tie breaker with the 2nd place finisher
-Polina finishes 1st and any skater other than Gracie, Satoko, or Kanako finishes 2nd.
-Polina finishes 2nd and any skater other than Satoko, Gracie, Kanako or Gabrielle finishes 1st and Satoko, Gracie or Kanako finishes 3rd
-Anyone other than Gracie, Satoko, Kanako or Polina finishes 1st, one of them finishes 2nd and she wins the tiebreaker against the 2nd place finisher

*Rika will make the final if
-Polina finishes 2nd and any skater any skater other than Satoko, Gracie, Kanako or Gabrielle finishes 1st and Satoko, Gracie or Kanako finishes 3rd
-Gabrielle finishes 1st, Polina finishes 2nd and she wins the 2nd tiebreaker against Gabrielle
-Gabrielle finishes 1st, anyone other than Gracie, Sotoko, Kanako, or Polina finishes 2nd and she wins the tiebreaker against Gabrielle.


Hopefully I got them all. :)
 
Last edited:

cjmorton29

Rinkside
Joined
Sep 7, 2014
Okay, I give a round of applause to you for figuring all that out! I too tried to map out the different tie-breaker situations and was able to figure out the gist, but I certainly didn't go into all the detail you did! Well done!
 

BravesSkateFan

Medalist
Joined
Aug 7, 2003
Thanks cj...Hopefully its right. I found 2 mistakes while typing it up that I had to fix :p It ended up taking way more time than I thought it would!
 

fairly4

Medalist
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
good job braveskate fan.

I am not going to predict because at beginning of year mine got messed up. so I am not. just wishing them all a great skate.
 

BravesSkateFan

Medalist
Joined
Aug 7, 2003
Me either...there are too many possibilities. I know who I'd like to make it, but I don't want to tempt the skate gods....
 

Manitou

Medalist
Joined
Jan 17, 2014
So what I understand is that the four Russian girls clinched the final already. But what has to happen so that they are joined by Ashley and Gracie, thus having four Russians and two Americans?
And what to has to happen so that none of the American girls go to the final?
 

makaihime

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 20, 2014
It's likely it'll be 4 Russians, 1 American, and 1 Japanese. The question is which Japanese and which American will make the cut
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
So what I understand is that the four Russian girls clinched the final already. But what has to happen so that they are joined by Ashley and Gracie, thus having four Russians and two Americans?
And what to has to happen so that none of the American girls go to the final?

All Americans: Neither Kanako or Satoko gets 1st or 2nd. Or Gracie wins and Ashley wins tiebreaker with whoever of Kanako or Satoko gets second.

All Japanese: Kanako and Satoko goes 1 and 2 and 2nd place person wins tiebreaker against Ashley.
 

Manitou

Medalist
Joined
Jan 17, 2014
All Americans: Neither Kanako or Satoko gets 1st or 2nd. Or Gracie wins and Ashley wins tiebreaker with whoever of Kanako or Satoko gets second.

All Japanese: Kanako and Satoko goes 1 and 2 and 2nd place person wins tiebreaker against Ashley.


Go Gracie and go Ashley! Dream final! :)
 

Alba

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 26, 2014
All Americans: Neither Kanako or Satoko gets 1st or 2nd. Or Gracie wins and Ashley wins tiebreaker with whoever of Kanako or Satoko gets second.

All Japanese: Kanako and Satoko goes 1 and 2 and 2nd place person wins tiebreaker against Ashley.

Thank you so much for this simple and clear explanation. :bow:
I was starting to feel like an idiot, because I couldn't comprehend all those possibilities with the tiebreaker. :rolleye: I got completely lost. :confused: :biggrin:

p.s. What about 1 american and 1 japanese? What happens if Leonova wins this?
I don't think so but who knows.
 
Last edited:

Manitou

Medalist
Joined
Jan 17, 2014
So far it's fantastic. I understand if the results stand then Gracie and Ashley go to the final, and no Japanese. Keep the fingers crossed!
 

Manitou

Medalist
Joined
Jan 17, 2014
Leonova is out of contention. It's only Ashley, Gracie and the two Japanese now.
Even if Leonova wins she can have max 20 pts, which will put her on 7th position.

P.S. Sorry, three Japanese. I forgot about the one who is 6th at the moment.
 
Last edited:

Alba

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 26, 2014
Leonova is out of contention. It's only Ashley, Gracie and the two Japanese now.
Even if Leonova wins she can have max 20 pts, which will put her on 7th position.

Yes, I know that. I'm asking what happens to the others which are in contention if she wins here.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Yes, I know that. I'm asking what happens to the others which are in contention if she wins here.

Ashley and whoever is in second (of Gracie/Kanako/Satoko) will both get a trip to the GPF.
 

Manitou

Medalist
Joined
Jan 17, 2014
So that's it! It's Gracie and Ashley! Four Russians and two Americans. Russia vs USA. Just like in the old good times! :)
 

Selene

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 7, 2012
So that's it! It's Gracie and Ashley! Four Russians and two Americans. Russia vs USA. Just like in the old times!

I don't think the two American ladies pose much of a threat to the Russians. The GPF is basically four Russians competing against each other and two Americans competing against each other for 5th place.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I don't think the two American ladies pose much of a threat to the Russians. The GPF is basically four Russians competing against each other and two Americans competing against each other for 5th place.

Gracie's SB of191.16 is currently higher than Julia Liptnitskaia's (185.16), which is also lower than Ashley's SB of 186.00. Her score also is 0.7 less than Anna Pogorilaya's SB of 191.81 from Skate Canada.

Liza's score is only 5.5 points higher (196.66), so she's ain't that far out of reach either.
 
Last edited:

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Yeah, Lip and Radionova have been pretty consistent (Lip not quite as much), but Pogo and Tuk could possibly mess up, letting one or both of the Americans go ahead of them.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
Gracie scored a 191 with notable errors including popping jumps and a fall. If she ever gets it together she could be over 200 points easily but that's a big if.
 
Top