Grand Prix Final predictions

anyanka said:

We want prizes! How about styrofoam or plastic hockey pucky-style medals with the Golden Skate logo on them?

Of course we'll gladly take cash as well. I'll send you my PayPal details .... just kidding! I know we're not allowed to gamble and the only thing we can do is speculate and win bragging rights.

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We can do virtual medals...

Snow63 said:

Oh. You have no idea. This tactics is so not gonna work this time. Ok. Now I'm shutting up, or Mrs. P will kill me. I just can't contain myself, new rules are just... I just can't stop talking... I should go get some snacks or something...

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Mrs. P said:

This is like the bunny hill (to use skiing terms) for your predictions.

I have not posted the official GPF round thread. I am going to finalize the rules with the scorers first! So feel free to speculate and think away. As I said, you'll appreciate it!

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bellflower said:

Ugh, Mrs. P, you are killing me with the speculating! Just give me a tip!

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Snow63 said:

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You scorers are enjoying this and torturing us ain't you? Out with it already, so I can have time to change my prediction a million times
Snow63, any tip? Looks like u r about to spill the beans.

Wait, these predictions are for real? I thought it was just a warm up!

Men:
1. Fernandez
2. Mura
3. Hanyu
4. Kovtun
5. Machida
6. Voronov

Ladies:
1. Radionova
2. Tuktamysheva
3. Pogorilaya
4. Gold
5. Lipnitskaya
6. Wagner

Pairs:
1. Stolbova/Klimov
2. Duhamel/Radford
3. Sui/Han
4. Yu/Jin
5. Kavaguti/Smirnov
6. Peng/Zhang


Dance:
1. Chock/Bates
2. Papadakis/Cizeron
3. Weaver/Poje
4. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin
5. Shibutani/Shibutani
6. Gilles/Poirier

I'm surprised no one else has predicted Papdakis/Cizeron in 2nd, with many placing them 4th or 5th? You guys really think the Shibs will beat them? I think they are heavy edge to Weaver & Poje for silver right now. W/P had great programs last season but this season they aren't as good. P/C have 2 amazing programs this season and have been scoring better at each competition!

silverlake22 said:

I'm surprised no one else has predicted Papdakis/Cizeron in 2nd, with many placing them 4th or 5th? You guys really think the Shibs will beat them? I think they are heavy edge to Weaver & Poje for silver right now. W/P had great programs last season but this season they aren't as good. P/C have 2 amazing programs this season and have been scoring better at each competition!

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I have another quastion. Why everyone so sure C/B will win this thing? I know their SB is higher, but still. I think W/P and C/B will be close (1st and 2nd placers). P/C will be close to Shibs (3rd and 4th), and I/Z will compete with G/P for 5th place.

SashaJuliaSpins said:

Snow63, any tip? Looks like u r about to spill the beans.

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Sorry, no tips. You will know. Soon..

Sorry, no tips. You will know. Soon..[/QUOTE]

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

SashaJuliaSpins said:

Sorry, no tips. You will know. Soon..

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Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr[/QUOTE]


Relax, and enjoy the ride.

Final prediction! yay!! I will probably come back and move the rank here and there though. One thing I learned from the prediction for this season's GPs, it is quite unpredictable. So, I will just go with what I want to see on the podium.


Men competition:

1. Javier Fernández - he has great motivations (Miki and Barcelona! He is the man with every reason to win!
2. Takahito Mura - I enjoyed his gala at NHK, and decided to forget his rather disappointing FS at NHK.
3. Maxim Kovtun - If either Mura or Machida cannot deliver a clean program, Kovton is the one who will take Bronze at least. I think the Blue Spiderman is very competitive and will end up being on the podium.
4. Tatsuki Machida - His jumps in TEB did not look secure.... what happened?! If it is because of his chronic leg injuries, I don't think he is going to be in his top form soon and medal at GPF. But I am sure he will come back even stronger for the 4CC/World.
5. Yuzuru Hanyu - Even though he is not in his best form, with his skating qualities other than jump he will not be at the bottom.
6. Sergei Voronov




Ladies competition:

1. Elizaveta Tuktamvsheva - I love her strength, perseverance... just want her to win. It doesn't matter how strong Elena is. She will win here, or at World.
2. Elena Radionova - Great competitor, performer.
3. Anna Pogorilaya - I think she manages her nerves better than Gracie does.
4. Gracie Gold - She seems to hold herself back in bigger events. Also, she made so many errors with her otherwise winning programs.
5. Julia Lipnitskaia - She lost the momentum from last season. GPF is too soon to bring it back. Maybe EC/Russian National/World?
6. Ashley Wagner - Unfortunately, her TES is too low and her competitors are too strong.



Pairs competition: I will come back for the pairs later.




Dance competition:

1. Gabriella Papadakis / Guillaume Cizeron - They are my number 1 team!!! I know in the ice dancing discipline hardly there is a surprising winner, but I want to root for them.
2. Madison Chock / Evan Bates - They are the judges' number 1 team for now.
3. Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje - I would give them Gold at every competition if they skated "Yo Soy Maria" this season.
4. Elena Ilinykh / Ruslan Zhiganshin - Elena is stunning. I think they will beat C/B and be the 2nd at World.
5. Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani
5.- Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier

Men
Fernandez (hope he goes clean)
Voronov
Kovtun
Mura
Hanyu
Machida

Ladies:
Elisaveta Tuktamisheva
Julia Lipniskaia
Radionova
Gold
Pogorilaya
Wagner

I think there will be 3 Russians ahead. I'd like Julia to go clean...and win but that would be a miracle as she needs the last year type of technical jumps.
Pogorilaya may get a medal if she is clean too...
I don't think the Americans have a chance, only if 2 Russians bomb their programs and they go clean. PCS may come and save some people but that's unfair...

Pairs

D/R
S/K
K/S

Dance

Weaver/Poje
Choke/Bates
Papadakis/Cizeron
Ilinykh/Ziganshin
Gilles/Poirer
Shibutanis

Men:
Hanyu (although he sneaked through, I bet he wins here! with SP holding him up)
Fernandez
Voronov (Consistent on the 4+3 toe)

Ladies:
Radionova (her TES on the Free will pull her through)
Tuktamysheva (having a stellar season she should win the SP)
Lipnitskaia (might pull a good program out, might pull up and take a medal)

Pairs:
Duhamel/Radford (have the technical arsenal to win here!)
Stolbova/Klimov (have the consistency - probably will win!)
Kavaguti/Smirnov (wanting them to win but not in judges favour!)

Dance: (hmmm!)
Chock Bates (well did they get a 107 in FD! no one has matched that yet)
Weaver Poje (love the FD!)
Papdakis/Cizeron (should win the FD really!! best of them all, SD is weaker of the 2 dances, so should pull up and medal with the free )

I don't typically do predictions, but...ladies seems fairly predictable to me. Order has some ?s but some general themes will happen:

Russia will take two podium spots at a minimum, likely will take all 3.

US - Gold can place anywhere in the field if she gets it together, but her competitive history suggests she won't. Wagner will be fighting to stay out of last place.

So...

Radionova (slam dunk)
Tuktamysheva
Lipnitskaya
Gold (if performs well, switch her to 3rd)
Pogorilaya
Wagner (if clean and Pogo or lip bomb, 5th isn't out of question)

Mens competition:

1. Javier Fernández - With the finals in Spain, it's hard to see Javier NOT finishing in first.
2. Yuzuru Hanyu - I expect a miracle performance to come out of nowhere here.
3. Sergei Voronov
4. Takahito Mura
5. Tatsuki Machida
6. Maxim Kovtun - Maxim is the luckiest man in the Grand Prix this year. Two golds in two events where his competition basically gave him 1st by default. I don't expect to see him high on the list here.


Ladies competition:

1. Elizaveta Tuktamvsheva - This seems to be her season. She has a more complete program than any of the Russian ladies at this point, if she can skate clean.
2. Elena Radionova - Technically sound. Hard to see Elena not finishing at or near the top unless she has an uncharacteristically disastrous performance.
3. Gracie Gold - Gotta hope for an American lady to land on the podium!
4. Anna Pogorilaya - The weakest of the four Russians but typically more consistent than Julia.
5. Julia Lipnitskaia - When the pressure is on, she tends to crack. Lots of pressure here with all the Russians going head-to-head.
6. Ashley Wagner - Doesn't have the technical abilities to compete here. Best she can hope for is a good, clean skate -- and then having her competitors make big mistakes.


Pairs competition:

1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Stolbova/Klimov
3. Sui/Han
4. Yu/Jin
5. Kavaguti/Smirnov
6. Peng/Zhang


Dance competition:

1. Madison Chock / Evan Bates
2. Gabriella Papadakis / Guillaume Cizeron
3. Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje
4. Elena Ilinykh / Ruslan Zhiganshin
5. Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani (Wish they would rank higher but I don't see it happening.)
5. Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier

I think the pressure might get to Javi - particularly in the SP, he will fight and maybe the PCS might be slightly increased I find him on the podium but not 1st - Hanyu - the pressure might be off!

Ps Ice Dance love to see Papadakis/Cizeron WIN!! big time but I cannot see the judges putting them above C/B and W/P this year - but who knows - sport always brings surprises - I think they will win EUROS though!!

Ladies - Its between Liza and Elena they seem to be more consistent - I think Liza will win the SP marginally by say 2-3 points from Elena - but Elena will win the Free, she can achieve between 67-71 in TES while Liza between 60-64

sabinfire said:

6. Maxim Kovtun - Maxim is the luckiest man in the Grand Prix this year. Two golds in two events where his competition basically gave him 1st by default. I don't expect to see him high on the list here.

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If I recall correctly, Kovtun's competition weren't the ones who helped him skate a perfect FS with 2 quads/2 axels at TEB... resulting in his win. If anyone's been the luckiest man in the Grand Prix it's Hanyu - a silver with two horrendous programs at CoC (yes, the collision was horrible, but still he shouldn't have been 2nd), and an even worse SP and a ho hum FS at NHK - 4 bad programs... GP berth.

If Kovtun skates an LP like at TEB, he'll be middle of the pack. But Hanyu cannot afford another bad SP and needs to tighten up his LP if he doesn't want to end up last.

I am really hoping for:
1. Elena
2. Yulia
3. Gracie

Manitou said:

I am really hoping for:
1. Elena
2. Yulia
3. Gracie

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I don't recommend reading the Gracie withdraws from the GPF thread then.

I gave Wagner about a 12.5% chance of getting a medal before Gracie pulled out... and now I think it's at about 20% chance. I couldn't really envision it happening before but now I can though still find it unlikely.

Men
1. Javier (hope he can win the gold medal in his home country)
2. Machida
3. Maxim
4. Yuzu (though I do wish to see him on the podium, given his current form I guess a 4th/5th place is a rational expectation. But somehow I don't think he will end up being the last one.)
5. Mura
6. Sergei

Interesting that the only two ladies that were in the Olympics, Ashley and Yulia, are the ones being counted out of the running. Me personally.....I think anyone can win this. It's oh so exciting to see a field that is on such even footing.

What a strange world it would be to see Ashley, Yulia, and Anna on the podium. The way everyone has been predicting things this year vs the results....well... it might not be such a ludicrous outcome to assume after all. ;p

Get em girls.....keep them nerves in check.


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