2015 Junior Worlds - Frontrunners | Golden Skate

2015 Junior Worlds - Frontrunners

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
Here is the place to discuss medal contenders and favourites at Jr. Worlds. Since we have a thread discussing the seniors (in the Edge), it's only fair to give the juniors their due. ;)

For men, I mostly agree with adelia's post here. Shoma Uno is the heavy favourite for gold. Considering his BV, PCS, and GOE, the only one who can challenge a non-meltdown Shoma would be Boyang with three quads and jacked-up PCS. Adian Pitkeev looks on track to defend his silver medal. His senior debut has been solid but not stellar; however, he should be able to see off most challengers here. Boyang Jin also has a good chance to podium. If he goes completely clean, he could be higher than bronze, but he hasn't really pulled off his technical content yet.

Alexander Petrov, Sota Yamamoto, Nathan Chen are other notable challengers. All could step up if someone (likely Boyang...) bombs. Sasha and Sota have limited tech content compared to the top guys, so they'll need mistakes (or they'll need to add the quad themselves). Nathan Chen struggles with the axel and his form has been questionable lately, but he has a quad and could be competitive.

For ladies, Evgenia Medvedeva has solidified herself as the frontrunner, between JGPF and Nationals (junior and senior). Serafima Sakhanovich is probably still a tentative silver favourite, though she has struggled this year rather than dominating the junior circuit as some predicted. Other contenders include Wakaba Higuchi (bronze medallist at JGPF and Nationals) and Maria Sotskova (who narrowly beat Serafima at Junior Nationals). A mention to Karen Chen as well, who had a breakout performance at US Nationals.

There are probably people I missed, as I don't follow juniors extremely closely. Case in point: I have only a vague idea of what's happening in ice dance and pairs, so I'll leave those speculations up to other people. :biggrin:

Who do you expect to podium, and what would they have to do to get there? Discuss!
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Crossover

All Hail the Queen
Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 31, 2014
I'm a bit surprised that you did not mention about the Canadian pair team, Julianne Séguin / Charlie Bilodeau. They are the heavy favorite for the Jr.World title since they won the JGPF. I feel like they can easily get a medal in the next year's senior grand prix circuit. However, they are also assigned to the senior World team, so I'm not sure they will compete at both Jr and Senior World.
 
Last edited:

silverfoxes

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 16, 2014
Men - Shoma seems like a lock for gold, barring anything short of disaster. After that it's tough to say (but it will be exciting!). A healthy Adian is more consistent than Boyang but you just never know. I'm not sure what shape Nathan Chen will be in. Then we have Sasha Petrov, Sota, Andrew Torgashev, and Denis Vasiljevs (probably not a threat, but I really hope he can improve on his performance from last year)...I wish there were medals for all of them! Also Roman Sadovsky, Ivan Pavlov, Alexander Samarin & Daniel Samohin (? - not sure if he will be there) could do relatively well. Hopefully the official entry lists will be out soon.

Ladies - Evgenia for gold, then between Karen, Sima, Maria, Wakaba. I'd also add Elizabet Tursynbaeva as one to watch, maybe.

I guess it's probably between Fedorova/Miroshkin and Seguin/Bilodeau for pairs.
 
Last edited:

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
I'm a bit surprised that you did not mention about the Canadian pair team, Julianne Séguin / Charlie Bilodeau. They are the heavy favorite for the Jr.World title since they won the JGPF. I feel like they can easily get a medal in the next year's senior grand prix circuit. However, they are also assigned to the senior World team, so I'm not sure they will compete at both Jr and Senior World.
I mentioned no pairs and no ice dance because I didn't follow closely enough. But yes, I would agree they are the favourites. The biggest potential upset I see is if the Chinese Federation sends Yu/Jin to junior Worlds again, since they are not going to senior Worlds. If that happens, I'd say Y/J are the frontrunners.
 

matmuh

what are levels anyway
Record Breaker
Joined
May 2, 2014
Ladies - Evgenia for gold, then between Karen, Sima, Maria, Wakaba. I'd also add Elizabet Tursynbaeva as one to watch, maybe.
yes, she had pretty good season, 1 silver and 1 bronze, and gold in every other competition she entered,no need to mention her coach is Orser and her previous coach is Eteri :biggrin: maybe she wont be in top 3 but she has chance in top 5, and i love her programs :love:

also for men, i would add daniel somohin, he was pretty good at europeans
entry page is up btw :dance:
 
Last edited:

Totentanz

Ursula Gumennik
Medalist
Joined
Feb 28, 2012
I think Seguin/Bilodeau and Yu/Jin will fight for gold, while Fedorova/Miroshkin and Vigalova/Zakroev competing for bronze.

I agree Yanovskaya/Mozgov are %99 lock for gold here if they don't make mistake. Popova/Vlasenko, Canadian and American couples will compete for silver and bronze.
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
I was just looking over jr dance to see if y/m could lose like they did last year but I don't really see a challenger! Not based kn what happened in jr gp anyway.

I really want f/m to win in pairs but they have a lot of trouble!

Uno in men is clear

Medvedeva in ladies seems pretty clear
 

s_parks

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 25, 2013
Interesting that yu/Jin are going. I would definitely put them down as the favorite for gold. Even if they aren't successful on the 2lz, they're pretty far ahead in everything else, especially considering they posted some solid scores on the gp and made the senior gpf. I don't really see them having to fight any team for the gold barring major mistakes.
2nd and 3rd should be seguin/builodeu and fedorova/miroshkin, but if s/b have more mistakes than f/m, they may be edged out. V/z may sneak in a bronze if f/m falter.
 

invisiblespiral

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 20, 2013
Okay, for ladies, Medvedeva is probably going to win, rest of podium is Sakhanovich/Sotskova/Chen/Higuchi tossup, with Nagai, Tursynbaeva, Choi, Pierce, and Sakamoto rounding out the top 10?

Men is probably Uno/Pikteev for gold, and Jin/Chen/Petrov/Yamamoto for bronze?

Also, how long have Y/M been on the JGP?
 

meteorlight8

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Interesting that yu/Jin are going. I would definitely put them down as the favorite for gold. Even if they aren't successful on the 2lz, they're pretty far ahead in everything else, especially considering they posted some solid scores on the gp and made the senior gpf. I don't really see them having to fight any team for the gold barring major mistakes.
2nd and 3rd should be seguin/builodeu and fedorova/miroshkin, but if s/b have more mistakes than f/m, they may be edged out. V/z may sneak in a bronze if f/m falter.

Can't Y/J just do double axels instead of 2lz in the SP? I could be mis-remembering the rules. In any case, I think they should be nearly locks for gold, with S/B heavy favorites for silver. I don't see any way S/B can pass Y/J unless the latter has an absolute meltdown (possible I suppose, but imo highly unlikely). Glad China decided to send Y/J - small consolation for missing out on home Worlds, but at least it's something, and they can secure spots for next year now that China has finally put together some jr teams.

Pairs bronze will be a heated battle between F/M and V/Z. I'd actually give the edge to V/Z, who've been relatively more consistent this season, even though I'm a bigger fan of F/M.

I agree with Shoma and Medvedeva being favorites for men and ladies, but I think they both have the potential to be unseated if they make mistakes and certain other competitors (Pitkeev/Boyang/NChen; Serafima/Sotskova/KChen) skate lights out. I think Petrov is definitely a medal threat, but most likely not gold unless a couple of people really bomb.

Y/M will win if they go clean or even just clean-ish, but after the season we've had, I think flukes can't be counted out. Still, barring a disaster from Y/M, imo the other medals will be a multi-way fight among P/V, Mcnamara/Carpenter, Mckensie/Bent and Nazarova/Nikitin (the Ukranians).

Invisiblespiral: This is Y/M's 4th JGP season. Interestingly, I just realized if age rules stay the same they will still be junior eligible next season! I hope they win so they can move to seniors though.
 

s_parks

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 25, 2013
Can't Y/J just do double axels instead of 2lz in the SP? I could be mis-remembering the rules. In any case, I think they should be nearly locks for gold, with S/B heavy favorites for silver. I don't see any way S/B can pass Y/J unless the latter has an absolute meltdown (possible I suppose, but imo highly unlikely). Glad China decided to send Y/J - small consolation for missing out on home Worlds, but at least it's something, and they can secure spots for next year now that China has finally put together some jr teams.

Pairs bronze will be a heated battle between F/M and V/Z. I'd actually give the edge to V/Z, who've been relatively more consistent this season, even though I'm a bigger fan of F/M.

I agree with Shoma and Medvedeva being favorites for men and ladies, but I think they both have the potential to be unseated if they make mistakes and certain other competitors (Pitkeev/Boyang/NChen; Serafima/Sotskova/KChen) skate lights out. I think Petrov is definitely a medal threat, but most likely not gold unless a couple of people really bomb.

Y/M will win if they go clean or even just clean-ish, but after the season we've had, I think flukes can't be counted out. Still, barring a disaster from Y/M, imo the other medals will be a multi-way fight among P/V, Mcnamara/Carpenter, Mckensie/Bent and Nazarova/Nikitin (the Ukranians).

Invisiblespiral: This is Y/M's 4th JGP season. Interestingly, I just realized if age rules stay the same they will still be junior eligible next season! I hope they win so they can move to seniors though.

I believe the 2Lz is a required element for jr pairs... which is ridiculous, because most pairs aren't going to go on to do sbs 3lz later in their careers. And yeah, since Y/J aren't able to go to senior worlds, it's nice that they have an opportunity to defend their jr. title.
I'm not sure if V/Z necessarily have an edge over F/M. V/Z may have beaten them at jr. nationals, but on the other hand, they lost at JGPF. It'll be tight.
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
Considering Seguin/Bilodeau barely managed to beat Moore-Towers/Marinaro at Nationals, while Yu/Jin made GPF... Y/J wins unless they have a major meltdown. It's very different from the Shoma-Adian situation, where Shoma already has marks competitive with the seniors, while Adian's senior debut hasn't yielded a huge increase in marks (and he was only 6th and 6th in his GPs, plus 7th at Europeans).
 

matmuh

what are levels anyway
Record Breaker
Joined
May 2, 2014
Thanks!

Jin Seo Kim is going over June Hyoung Lee? Feels like he's been senior for awhile...well, I don't think he is a podium threat anyway. And Jiri over Matyas Belohradsky? :scowl:

i guess because june hyoung had better season (except 4cc ) and is senior national champion they decided to send jin seo to junior worlds,i think thats why jin seo was so emotional at 4cc after his free skate, also agree with my beloved matyas, i was really hoping to see him, but his older brother junior champion, but at least matyas is listed as sub, and still 13 years old, hopefully we will see so much of him
 
Last edited:

Crossover

All Hail the Queen
Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 31, 2014
I mentioned no pairs and no ice dance because I didn't follow closely enough. But yes, I would agree they are the favourites. The biggest potential upset I see is if the Chinese Federation sends Yu/Jin to junior Worlds again, since they are not going to senior Worlds. If that happens, I'd say Y/J are the frontrunners.

You seem to be very knowledgeable of pairs, so I thought you naturally would know Séguin/Bilodeau's high chance of winning the Jr.title. It is confirmed that Y/J is gonna compete at J.World, not at senior stage. That is interesting. They competed in the senior circuits this season, got good results, but couldn't compete at senior World even though they are the National champions. I agree that they are the front runner over Seguin/Bilodeau.
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
You seem to be very knowledgeable of pairs, so I thought you naturally would know Séguin/Bilodeau's high chance of winning the Jr.title. It is confirmed that Y/J is gonna compete at J.World, not at senior stage. That is interesting. They competed in the senior circuits this season, got good results, but couldn't compete at senior World even though they are the National champions. I agree that they are the front runner over Seguin/Bilodeau.
I'm flattered you'd consider me knowledgeable. :laugh: But if I'm such a thing, it's only for the seniors, I'm afraid. Rather clueless about juniors outside of S/B (since they're frontrunners and Canadian), and Y/J (since they competed in seniors).
 

samm22

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 22, 2015
I'm going to go out on a whim and say that for ladies, Medvedeva will win, and it will be a battle between serafima and wakaba for silver. In my opinion, Karen Chen was a little over scored at US nationals and would have had a score much lower had she competed that same program at a jgp. She also has had an up and down season (didn't make jgpf, then upset at nationals with a bronze), but I wouldn't count her out. I think Yuka, Elizabet, Pierce, and Kaori are people to watch for as well. As far as the Men, Shomo is pretty much a lock for a win, with boyang, chen, adian and yamamoto chasing him for the rest of the podium. Nathen Chen is the wild card here...we don't know what type of shape he's in, since he had pain in his foot during and before nationals, but if he skates clean, with the quad, 2 triple axels, and the triple triple, i wouldn't be surprised if he edged out boyang and adian for silver. I don't know much about junior pairs and ice dance, but it seems as though y/j are slated to win gold, and s/b are chasing them at the moment in pairs.
 

stryke

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 11, 2014
Medvedeva will undoubtedly take gold. With Sima and Maria being shaky there is no one else who could contend her gold medal. Imo Maria has improved enough since GPF to pull ahead of Wakaba and battle Sima for silver. I say this and yet Sima scared me at gpf and even worse at Jnats so we will have to see how much worse she hopefully isn't come start time for worlds.
 
Top