Through Skate America and Skate Canada, the twenty-four men who have skated on the Grand Prix so far have provided us with some surprises, especially at the first event, and the elimination of a few would-be contenders. A look at the prospects of the top four through the North American leg:
Skate America:
1. Max Aaron: Need only medal in France, where he probably won't beat Patrick Chan if the latter skates decently, so it's a good thing he doesn't have to. Instead he will once again battle with Shoma Uno, as well as Maxim Kovtun and Daisuke Murakami, or possibly Denis Ten if the last is in better shape for his second event, or even Florent Amodio if he suddenly turns everything around. But even if the last two don't cause trouble, he has shown that when he delivers, he is capable of beating them all, but may need help to do so. It may be he manages to get past two of them or a bronze, or possibly gets help from only one of them and ends up in fourth, as which point his chances are still fairly good, but this is one winner who has no certainty of making the Finale.
2. Shoma Uno: Would need to win France to seal it, which he probably can't do without at least some help from Chan. His chances would be pretty good with two silvers, for which he'd have to beat all the other people listed above, which if he skates up to potential he's got a good chance of doing, but he could just as easily slip down to bronze and then it's as the chips fall, and if he makes too many mistakes he could even slip off the podium entirely.
3. Jason Brown: Would need to win in Japan to seal it, which he would need a lot of help from Yuzuru Hanyu to do, and also probably to skate better than he has. For silver and as the chips fall, his rivals are Takahiko Mura, who might or might not take himself out, Michel Brezina, who lately seems more likely to but might not, and Maxim Kovtun and possibly Boyang Jin, whom he probably wants to be good enough to beat without help from them. So if he skates well, it *really* is as the chips fall, but given how he's been skating so far this season one wonders if he'll just take himself out anyway.
4. Han Yan: To have a good shot would have to win China, where he'll have to be at his best and possibly get help to beat Javier Fernandez, although his chances at silver and a lingering chance(maybe higher than usual; this may be one of the weirder years...) are much better; he skates clean and he'll probably beat the rest of the field, even Sergei Voronov, no problem...
Skate Canada:
1. Patrick Chan: Need only medal in France, which he'll win if he skates well, although there are a number of guys he could slip behind if he skates badly enough and four of them deliver....but really, barring that, he's in.
2. Yuzuru Hanyu: Would need to win Japan to seal it, which he probably will, especially because even if he has major issues, the field's a bit weaker there. Plus even if he did slip down to silver, or even to bronze, his chances would be pretty good in the score tiebreaker.
3. Daisuke Murakami: Would need to win France to seal it, where the odds are against him, especially against Chan. Still, he's probably got a fair chance at silver and as the chips fall.
4. Adam Rippon: To have a good shot would have to win Russia, for which he'd have to put it together and then get some help from Fernandez. And even if he does put it together, for silver and a chance he'd have to hold off Nam Nguyen and Sergei Voronov, both of which will be hard for him to beat, and that's if Takahiko Kozuka doesn't have a comeback event.
Out of contention, but could determine the fates of others:
Nam Nguyen: Fifth at Skate Canada, field in Russia is such he should be a factor there.
Adian Pitkeev: Sixth at Skate America, but the field of Russia is such that home ice advantage especially could cause him to be a factor.
Denis Ten: Ninth at Skate America, but if he's feeling better in France could be a major factor there.
Takahiko Mura: Tenth at Skate America, but perfectly capable of being a major factor in Japan if he has a better week.
Takahiko Kozuka: Withdrawn from Cup of China due to injury, but could always be recovered in time for Russia
Michel Brezina: Eighth at Skate Canada, could always turn things around and become a factor again in Japan.
Florent Amodio: Eleventh at Skate America, still lingering chance he could decide to turn his career around in France and throw things for a loop in the process.
Contenders yet to skate:
Javier Fernandez
Maxim Kovtun
Sergei Voronov
Skate America:
1. Max Aaron: Need only medal in France, where he probably won't beat Patrick Chan if the latter skates decently, so it's a good thing he doesn't have to. Instead he will once again battle with Shoma Uno, as well as Maxim Kovtun and Daisuke Murakami, or possibly Denis Ten if the last is in better shape for his second event, or even Florent Amodio if he suddenly turns everything around. But even if the last two don't cause trouble, he has shown that when he delivers, he is capable of beating them all, but may need help to do so. It may be he manages to get past two of them or a bronze, or possibly gets help from only one of them and ends up in fourth, as which point his chances are still fairly good, but this is one winner who has no certainty of making the Finale.
2. Shoma Uno: Would need to win France to seal it, which he probably can't do without at least some help from Chan. His chances would be pretty good with two silvers, for which he'd have to beat all the other people listed above, which if he skates up to potential he's got a good chance of doing, but he could just as easily slip down to bronze and then it's as the chips fall, and if he makes too many mistakes he could even slip off the podium entirely.
3. Jason Brown: Would need to win in Japan to seal it, which he would need a lot of help from Yuzuru Hanyu to do, and also probably to skate better than he has. For silver and as the chips fall, his rivals are Takahiko Mura, who might or might not take himself out, Michel Brezina, who lately seems more likely to but might not, and Maxim Kovtun and possibly Boyang Jin, whom he probably wants to be good enough to beat without help from them. So if he skates well, it *really* is as the chips fall, but given how he's been skating so far this season one wonders if he'll just take himself out anyway.
4. Han Yan: To have a good shot would have to win China, where he'll have to be at his best and possibly get help to beat Javier Fernandez, although his chances at silver and a lingering chance(maybe higher than usual; this may be one of the weirder years...) are much better; he skates clean and he'll probably beat the rest of the field, even Sergei Voronov, no problem...
Skate Canada:
1. Patrick Chan: Need only medal in France, which he'll win if he skates well, although there are a number of guys he could slip behind if he skates badly enough and four of them deliver....but really, barring that, he's in.
2. Yuzuru Hanyu: Would need to win Japan to seal it, which he probably will, especially because even if he has major issues, the field's a bit weaker there. Plus even if he did slip down to silver, or even to bronze, his chances would be pretty good in the score tiebreaker.
3. Daisuke Murakami: Would need to win France to seal it, where the odds are against him, especially against Chan. Still, he's probably got a fair chance at silver and as the chips fall.
4. Adam Rippon: To have a good shot would have to win Russia, for which he'd have to put it together and then get some help from Fernandez. And even if he does put it together, for silver and a chance he'd have to hold off Nam Nguyen and Sergei Voronov, both of which will be hard for him to beat, and that's if Takahiko Kozuka doesn't have a comeback event.
Out of contention, but could determine the fates of others:
Nam Nguyen: Fifth at Skate Canada, field in Russia is such he should be a factor there.
Adian Pitkeev: Sixth at Skate America, but the field of Russia is such that home ice advantage especially could cause him to be a factor.
Denis Ten: Ninth at Skate America, but if he's feeling better in France could be a major factor there.
Takahiko Mura: Tenth at Skate America, but perfectly capable of being a major factor in Japan if he has a better week.
Takahiko Kozuka: Withdrawn from Cup of China due to injury, but could always be recovered in time for Russia
Michel Brezina: Eighth at Skate Canada, could always turn things around and become a factor again in Japan.
Florent Amodio: Eleventh at Skate America, still lingering chance he could decide to turn his career around in France and throw things for a loop in the process.
Contenders yet to skate:
Javier Fernandez
Maxim Kovtun
Sergei Voronov
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And wishing to see all of them in Barcelona 
