Sixteen pairs competed in the North American leg in the Grand Prix, and there haven't been any real eliminations yet, although things have gotten unexpectedly hairy for a pair or two, but as things stand for the top fours:
Skate America:
1. Wenjing Sui & Cong Han: Need only medal at Cup of China. It's hard to believe they won't there; there is, perhaps, a chance they won't win, with Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov in the field, but the only other pair there that even remotely threatens them is Lubov Iliushechkina & Dylan Moscovitch, unless they skate really badly, and even then they'd more likely that not hold onto a top four spot at the very least.
2. Alexa Scimeca & Chris Knierim: Would need to win Japan to seal it, which they are unlikely to do with both Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford and Tatiana Volosozhar & Maxim Trankov in the field. Pairs with silver and bronze usually have a good chance to make it in, but they aren't certain of that either, since they also have to deal with Iliushechkina & Moscovitch, and possibly even Vera Bazarova & Andrei Deputat or Xiaoyu Yu & Yang Jin, although they will be favored to beat them all if they skate up to potential.
3. Julianne Seguin & Charlie Bilodeau: To seal it would need to win France, which probably won't happen against Voloszhar & Trankov. Even for silver and chance it'll be a bit of an ask to get past Cheng Peng & Hao Zhang or Evgenia Tarasova & Vladimir Morozov; basically they'd need to be an even bigger surprise than they've been already.
4. Ksenia Stolbova & Fedor Klimov: To have a chance would need to win in Russia. Which if they skated their best, they would probably do, but they skate like they've been skating all this calender year and with Kavaguti & Smirnov and Peng & Zhang in the field they might not even get silver.
Skate Canada:
1. Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford: Who knows if they'll win Japan, but it seems highly unlikely they won't medal there, and that's all they need.
2. Evgenia Tarasova & Vladimir Morozov: Would need to win in France to seal it, which would require considerable help from Volosozhar and Trankov. But they've got a pretty good chance at beating Peng & Zhang for silver, and even if they don't, they still have a chance with bronze, which they'd probably have to skate pretty badly to not win.
3. Kirsten Moore-Towers & Michael Marinaro: To seal it would need to win in Russia, which would probably require two Russian teams at least to blow it, and while the chances seem higher than usual that Stolbova & Klimov will, they'd probably also need help from Peng & Zhang, so they'd need some luck for silver and a chance, and even then they might have to beat out Valentina Marchei and Ondrej Hotarek for it(although they, of course, might not be up for that anyway). So it's not impossible, but they'll need a *lot* of luck.
4. Marissa Castelli & Mervin Tran: To have a chance would have to win France, where the field is such that even silver is unlikely.
Contenders yet to skate:
Tatiana Volosozhar & Maxim Trankov
Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov
Cheng Peng & Hao Zhang
Lubov Iliushechkina & Dylan Moscovitch(possible)
Skate America:
1. Wenjing Sui & Cong Han: Need only medal at Cup of China. It's hard to believe they won't there; there is, perhaps, a chance they won't win, with Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov in the field, but the only other pair there that even remotely threatens them is Lubov Iliushechkina & Dylan Moscovitch, unless they skate really badly, and even then they'd more likely that not hold onto a top four spot at the very least.
2. Alexa Scimeca & Chris Knierim: Would need to win Japan to seal it, which they are unlikely to do with both Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford and Tatiana Volosozhar & Maxim Trankov in the field. Pairs with silver and bronze usually have a good chance to make it in, but they aren't certain of that either, since they also have to deal with Iliushechkina & Moscovitch, and possibly even Vera Bazarova & Andrei Deputat or Xiaoyu Yu & Yang Jin, although they will be favored to beat them all if they skate up to potential.
3. Julianne Seguin & Charlie Bilodeau: To seal it would need to win France, which probably won't happen against Voloszhar & Trankov. Even for silver and chance it'll be a bit of an ask to get past Cheng Peng & Hao Zhang or Evgenia Tarasova & Vladimir Morozov; basically they'd need to be an even bigger surprise than they've been already.
4. Ksenia Stolbova & Fedor Klimov: To have a chance would need to win in Russia. Which if they skated their best, they would probably do, but they skate like they've been skating all this calender year and with Kavaguti & Smirnov and Peng & Zhang in the field they might not even get silver.
Skate Canada:
1. Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford: Who knows if they'll win Japan, but it seems highly unlikely they won't medal there, and that's all they need.
2. Evgenia Tarasova & Vladimir Morozov: Would need to win in France to seal it, which would require considerable help from Volosozhar and Trankov. But they've got a pretty good chance at beating Peng & Zhang for silver, and even if they don't, they still have a chance with bronze, which they'd probably have to skate pretty badly to not win.
3. Kirsten Moore-Towers & Michael Marinaro: To seal it would need to win in Russia, which would probably require two Russian teams at least to blow it, and while the chances seem higher than usual that Stolbova & Klimov will, they'd probably also need help from Peng & Zhang, so they'd need some luck for silver and a chance, and even then they might have to beat out Valentina Marchei and Ondrej Hotarek for it(although they, of course, might not be up for that anyway). So it's not impossible, but they'll need a *lot* of luck.
4. Marissa Castelli & Mervin Tran: To have a chance would have to win France, where the field is such that even silver is unlikely.
Contenders yet to skate:
Tatiana Volosozhar & Maxim Trankov
Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov
Cheng Peng & Hao Zhang
Lubov Iliushechkina & Dylan Moscovitch(possible)
