2015-16 Nationals Predictions Game (Rules)

As it is only a week until the start of the German Championships, and the entry lists have now been announced, it seemed an appropriate time to get the 2015 – 2016 National Championships Predictions Game underway.

You will be pleased to hear that there has only been one change to the rules for this season. And that is the requirement to use full surnames, so that samkrut's formula can be used to work out scores. But, if you have been playing the GP Predictions Game, you will be used to that by now.

The Rules are still largely the same as for the GP Predictions Game. So, like last year, I will use tulosai’s explanation as the basis, but will not use quotes this time as I have added a few clauses.


Rules (pretty much the same as last year):

1. Guess the top 6 finisher in each discipline at each National Championship. Each event will have it's own dedicated thread in which to make predictions. For handiness, I will provide a list of the entries in the first post in each of these threads.
   
   
2. Only the top 5 guesses of each person will be scored. The 6[SUP]th[/SUP] person you guess will be an alternate in case one of the 5 skaters you pick withdraws or can't compete at the last minute.
   
   Competitions With Small Entries
   
   • If there are 5 or more entries, then the Predictions Game will carry on as per the usual rules.
   • If there are 3 or 4 entries in a competition, then we will make predictions on just the podium positions (if there is a 4[SUP]th[/SUP] entry, that will be the alternate).
   • If there are 1 or 2 entries in a competition, then that category will not count towards the Game.
3. The target time to get your predictions in is one hour before the first Short Programme of the event starts. If the pairs are first and they start at 7pm EST, you should aim to get your predictions in by 6pm EST.
   
   But, as usual in my Games, this is just a target time so that you are not rushing about at the last minute. Predictions for each category will still be accepted up until the start of that category’s Short Programme.
   
   Late Entries
   
   • In the event of predictions being submitted late, only those predictions for competitions that have not yet started will count.
   
   So, using last year's German SP timetable (Dance, then Men's, then Pairs and finally Ladies) as an example:
   
   
   If you submit your predictions in between Men's and Pairs, then your predictions for BOTH Pairs and Ladies will count towards the Game.
   
   If you submit your predictions during the Pairs competition (even if your skaters have not yet taken to the ice), then ONLY your predictions for Ladies will count towards the Game.​
   
   
   AMENDMENT (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] January 2016):
   
   
   Editing / Changing Predictions After The First SP Starts​
   ​
   
   If you edit your predictions post after the first SP has started (even if it is just to correct a spelling mistake), ALL your predictions will become invalid. This is because the only people that can see a post’s edit history is the person who posted it. So, the scorers cannot know for sure what exactly was edited.
   
   If you want to edit your predictions, you should instead post the amended predictions for that category IN A NEW POST, and make it clear in this new post that you want that to replace your previous predictions for that category.​
   
   
   
4. New this year: For your prediction to qualify for scoring, you must provide the full last name(s) in your predictions. The thread of each round will include the entries for each discipline, so all you need to do is copy and paste. Abbreviations, nicknames, first names will not be accepted.

Scoring

Each correct guess is worth 15 points. If you guess Mao will be first and she is first, that is 15 points. If you guess Mirai is 5[SUP]th[/SUP] and she is 5[SUP]th[/SUP], that is 15 points.

Each guess that is one placement off is worth 10 points. If you guess Ashley is 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] and she is 1[SUP]st[/SUP], you get 10 points. If you guess Gracie is 5[SUP]th[/SUP] and she is 6[SUP]th[/SUP], you get 10 points.

Each guess that is two placements off is worth 5 points. If you guess Akiko is 4[SUP]th[/SUP] and she in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], you get 5 points. If you guess Tukt is 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and she is 5[SUP]th[/SUP] you get 5 points.



So, after careful consideration, these are the Championships that have been selected as rounds for the Predictions Game:

National Championships Game

N/S Round: Australian Championships (28[SUP]th[/SUP] November – 4[SUP]th[/SUP] December 2015)
N/S Round: British Championships (1[SUP]st[/SUP] – 6[SUP]th[/SUP] December 2015)
Round 1: German Championships (12[SUP]th[/SUP] – 15[SUP]th[/SUP] December 2015)
Round 2: Italian Championships (16[SUP]th[/SUP] – 19[SUP]th[/SUP] December 2015)
N/S Round: French Championships (17[SUP]th[/SUP] – 19[SUP]th[/SUP] December 2015)
Round 3: Four Nationals Championships (18[SUP]th[/SUP] – 20[SUP]th[/SUP] December 2015)
Round 4: Russian Championships (23[SUP]rd[/SUP] – 27[SUP]th[/SUP] December 2015)
Round 5: Japanese Championships (24[SUP]th[/SUP] – 27[SUP]th[/SUP] December 2015)
Round 6: American Championships (15[SUP]th[/SUP] – 24[SUP]th[/SUP] January 2016)
Round 7: Canadian Championships (18[SUP]th[/SUP] – 24[SUP]th[/SUP] January 2016)

Provisional N/S Round: Chinese Championships (????)


The scores for all the rounds (whether they are counting towards the overall Game or not) will be recorded in the spreadsheet, which can be found at:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rI3z-_wGSVQNXd75LLlqO6axgSZ_XBhwIUHBQV0I_qc/edit?usp=sharing

Plus, if you want a handy way to keep track who is on the podium in each round, we have the HALL OF FAME thread, which can be found at:

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?57620


This thread will be available for general discussion about the game, and for analysing how the game is progressing. But, please keep the predictions and subsequent discussion about each event in the specific thread for that event:

Australian Championships: Predictions Game (N/S Round)
British Championships: Predictions Game (N/S Round)
German Championships: Predictions Game Round 1
Italian Championships: Predictions Game Round 2
French Championships: Predictions Game (N/S Round)
Four Nationals Championships: Predictions Game Round 3
Russian Championships: Predictions Game Round 4
Japanese Championships: Predictions Game Round 5
American Championships: Predictions Game Round 6
Canadian Championships: Predictions Game Round 7

Chinese Championships: Predictions Game (N/S Round)


Thank you so much to Mrs. P and the scorers of this year’s GP Game for making it such a success. This new game would not have been possible without you!

Good luck everybody!

CaroLiza_fan

Just a wee note to let you know that the scores from the first non-scoring round have now been put into the spreadsheet.

Also, now that we have some scores, I have created the HALL OF FAME thread for this season's Nationals Game. It can be found at:

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?57620

I don't know about anybody else, but I find that having the Hall Of Fame is a very handy way of keeping track of who is getting into the podium positions at each round. And, I have to admit, I did miss it during the GP Game.

Finally, the Predictions thread for this weekend's German Championships is now up. And, unlike the Australian and British Championships, this will be a scoring round.

So, erm, is there anybody else out there that would like to volunteer to be a scorer...

We have only had 4 express an interest so far, and the aim was to get a team of at least 8, so that the same people were not scoring every week. Let's face it, they deserve to have breaks!

So, if you would like to volunteer, please make yourself known in the other thread in The Edge.

CaroLiza_fan

Lovely how much passion you put into this project, while I can not join, I admire your strong will and passion!

Alex D said:

Lovely how much passion you put into this project, while I can not join, I admire your strong will and passion!

Click to expand...

Awww!!! You've got me all embarrassed now! Thank you Alex D!!!


I just read through the OP before writing this post, and realised that I made a major omission.

Although it was pretty obvious from my post in the thread where we were planning the Nationals Game, I never actually formally introduced the scorers. :

So, now that we have a break after a few hectic weeks, I suppose it would be a good time to do it.

Scoring the Ladies are: invisiblespiral, andromache and rosacotton.

Scoring the Men are: text_skate and Jombi.

Scoring the Pairs are: matmuh and Hyena.

Scoring the Ice Dance are: actualrealliveanna, rosacotton and tulosai.


Anyway, back to what I wanted to write about.

Ever since I started running Predictions Games, I have been letting players post predictions for each category right up until the start of the SP for that programme. And that system worked well… until this year’s Russian Championships.

What happened was that a couple of players made spelling mistakes in their predictions, and innocently edited their posts after competitions started. And then realised that they probably shouldn’t have edited them.

Unfortunately, the only people that can see a post’s edit history is the person who posted it. So, the scorers cannot know for sure what exactly was edited. Consequently, these players had to be disqualified. And I really did not like that.

So as to prevent this happening again, I have had to amend the rules slightly.

Here is what I wrote in the amendment:




Sorry that my oversight has led to me having to make changes to the rules with 2 rounds of the Game still to go. And particular apologies go to those that were affected by my oversight.

By the way, I have updated the Hall of Fame with the podium positions for everything that has been scored so far.

We are still awaiting the scores for some of the categories to be put into the spreadsheet, so that is why some of the Hall of Fame tables are not complete. But, please be patient and understand that the scorers have real lives outside of the forum, and they are doing the scoring in their spare time.

I have also updated the spreadsheet so that all the players are listed alphabetically. So, that should make it a lot easier to find your score.

CaroLiza_fan

Mods can see the edit history.

I you will send me the links to the posts in question, I can send you back copies of the original and edited posts. Perhaps we can get some of these players their deserved scores!

This is a one time only offer though- not obeying the new rules after this will lead to your entry being judged invalid.

dorispulaski said:

Mods can see the edit history.

I you will send me the links to the posts in question, I can send you back copies of the original and edited posts. Perhaps we can get some of these players their deserved scores!

This is a one time only offer though- not obeying the new rules after this will lead to your entry being judged invalid.

Click to expand...

Thank you for the kind offer, Doris. And I think I will take you up on it, because I feel really guilty for what happened in Russia.

Can I just emphasise, it's not that I don't trust the players in question. Because I do trust them. It was just so as to be fair on the other players that were taking part.

Although the two players did agree that they should be disqualified (one of them even suggested that that is what should happen when they pointed it out), I do still feel really guilty.

I'll send the links in a PM now.

CaroLiza_fan