Grand Prix 2016-17 News/Speculation | Golden Skate

Grand Prix 2016-17 News/Speculation

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Well, now that things are shaping up from the World Championships I don't think it's too early to talk about who's guaranteed grand prix spots, who may get them, and how things are unfolding until we finally get more official news in just, I don't know, 4 months :rofl:

I'll try to post a detailed ice dance analysis later today :)
 

cathlen

Team Gorgeous Cacti!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 2, 2015
Country
Poland
A fun thread! :dance:

ICE DANCE

No matter what:
1. P/C will get TEB
2. ShibSibs will get SA & possibly NHK ( if P/C won't choose it a second assignment)
3. Muramoto/Reed will get NHK

What I think:
4. I/Z will get CoC
5. Penny & Nick will get TEB
6. SinkKats will get CoR
7. H/D will get TEB
8. C/B will get CoC
9. V/M will get SC
10. C/L will get CoR

I have no idea what will happen with WeaPO. I'm not sure if it's smart to skate with V/M right away and I'm pretty sure they will get that one.
Question: Do I remember right that every couple that is in top24 on SB list has guaranteed one spot? Because Natalia Kaliszek & Maksim Spodirev are 24th and it would be awesome for them to get one assignment! :cheer:
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
A fun thread! :dance:

I have no idea what will happen with WeaPO. I'm not sure if it's smart to skate with V/M right away and I'm pretty sure they will get that one.
Question: Do I remember right that every couple that is in top24 on SB list has guaranteed one spot? Because Natalia Kaliszek & Maksim Spodirev are 24th and it would be awesome for them to get one assignment! :cheer:

I actually think the top 25 are guaranteed 1 spot, so yes they will get one. If no one beats me to it I am working on a complete list of who's guaranteed spots- it's going to be really sad actually in a way, there are A LOT of excellent teams who are only going to get 1 or who won't even get 1 :(
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Ice Dance Analysis

48 spots are available.

Teams Guaranteed 2 spots because of their Worlds Placement
-24 spots taken, 2 each to each of the top teams

1. Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA)
2. Shibutani/Sibutani (USA)
3. Chock/Bates (USA)
4. Cappellini/Lanotte (ITA)
5. Weaver/Poje (CAN)
6. Hubbell/Donohue (USA)
7. Coomes/Buckland (GBR)
8. Gilles/Porier (CAN)
9. Sinitsina/Katsalopov (RUS)
10. Guignard/Farbi (ITA)
11. Stepanova/Bukin (RUS)
12. Tobias/Tkachenko (ISR)

Teams Guaranteed 1 spot because of their place on the Seasons Best List:
-9 teams, but some will definitely get 2 spots (at least if there is any justice/fair play) as I noted below, so by my count between 12 and 14 spots will actually be taken by these 9 teams depending on what happens to Bobrova and Soloviev
-a few other teams would be guaranteed 1 but are still junior eligible and to my current knowledge intend to stay in juniors

13. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin (RUS) (7th SB list, will get 2)
14. Bobrova/Soloviev (RUS) (8th SB list, obviously may very probably not get a spot depending on drug outcome, if they do get a spot will get 2)
15. Testa/Csolley (SVK) (17th SB list, will get 2)
16. Hawayek/Baker (USA) (19th SB list, will get 2)
17. Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen (DEN) (20th SB list, will get 2)
18. Lauriault/LeGac (FRA) (21 SB list)
19. Agafonova/Ucar (TUR) (22 SB list)
20. Popova/Vlasenko (RUS) (23 SB list)
21. Kaliszek/Spodirev (POL) (24 SB list)

Teams Guaranteed 1 Spot because of their spot on the World overall Standings List
-5 teams, but 6 spots will probably be taken if you account for who will probably also get 2

22. Paul/Islam (will probably get 2, 26th on SB list)
23. Monko/Khaliavin
24. Kim/ Minov
25. Wang/Liu
26. Yanovskaya/Mozgov

Guaranteed 2 comeback spots:

27. Virtue/Moir

Their respective Federations will very possibly try to get/give these teams a slot:

29. Paradis/Oulette (CAN)
30. Zahorski/Guerrieiro (RUS) (Russian fed might have to use this on something else though depending how things go- spots are quite obviously going to be tight).

There's really not much room for other teams (or even for many very good teams to get 2 spots)- this is between 45 and 48 spots taken by my calculation depending on Bobrova/Soloviev and Zahorski/Guieiro's fates. I do wish dance had more spots (perhaps 10 per event) so promising younger/newer teams could have a better chance to get one without it being a nail biter for withdrawals- Lorenz and Polizakis, for example, or Muramoto and Reed or my own personal new faves, Orford and Hill. And also so that more teams who do actually deserve 2 spots could actually get 2 spots- some of this is really quite ridiculous at this point in my opinion.

If anyone sees any mistakes just shout. I'm happy to edit/correct/adjust
 
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cathlen

Team Gorgeous Cacti!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 2, 2015
Country
Poland
I'm pretty sure Muramoto/Reed will get that one spot at NHK. I wish there were 10 spots for Ice Dance too. There are so many teams afterall. 8 spots per event is only reasonable for Pairs.
Spotted few spelling mistakes, it should be: Ilinykh, Baker, Kaliszek

Question: what if American junior teams will decide to go senior next season? Do they have guaranteed spots too as Junior World Champions?
 
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Sackie

Medalist
Joined
Jan 4, 2007
Why are P/P and M/C staying junior? :scratch:
Might it have something to do with it being just 2 years before the Olympics and with 3 USA SR Dance Teams in the top 6 placements (seeded) from worlds - where would that leave them. They are probably better moving up when some of the SR teams are closer to retiring.
 

cathlen

Team Gorgeous Cacti!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 2, 2015
Country
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Might it have something to do with it being just 2 years before the Olympics and with 3 USA SR Dance Teams in the top 6 placements (seeded) from worlds - where would that leave them. They are probably better moving up when some of the SR teams are closer to retiring.

If I'm not wrong Parsons will need to move to senior in Olympic year anyway due to passing age eligibility. McNamara/Carpenter sill have time.
 

cheerknithanson

Record Breaker
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Jul 13, 2014
Country
United-States
If McNamara/Carpenter and the Parsons do juniors again next season, it'll be both teams' last season of junior eligibility.

I honestly think they should go to seniors. They're more than ready. So what if they don't make the Olympics in 2018? It'll mean the USA field is really deep.
 

cheerknithanson

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Jul 13, 2014
Country
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If I'm not wrong Parsons will need to move to senior in Olympic year anyway due to passing age eligibility. McNamara/Carpenter sill have time.

Actually McNamara/Carpenter will have to do the same cause Quinn will turn 21 in February 2017.
 

cathlen

Team Gorgeous Cacti!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 2, 2015
Country
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If McNamara/Carpenter and the Parsons do juniors again next season, it'll be both teams' last season of junior eligibility.

I honestly think they should go to seniors. They're more than ready. So what if they don't make the Olympics in 2018? It'll mean the USA field is really deep.

I agree it's better to move now, than waiting for another year. The transition to seniors usually is quite tough, but I don't see why any of these two couples wouldn't have a chance to make an Olympic team in 2018.

Actually McNamara/Carpenter will have to do the same cause Quinn will turn 21 in February 2017.

I thought you can be 21 in Ice Dance. My mistake :p
 
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cheerknithanson

Record Breaker
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Country
United-States
I agree it's better to move now, than waiting for another year. The transition to seniors usually is quite tough, but I don't see why any of these two couples wouldn't have a chance to make an Olympic team in 2018.

With the USA field being that deep, it'll be very difficult. The good thing about seniors is that there's one extra element in the FD, which can lead to a 100+ point score in the FD for both teams. It won't be easy, and I really hope both teams keep their charm when they get to seniors.

If you can't tell, they're my 2 favorite ice dance teams.

- - - Updated - - -

I agree it's better to move now, than waiting for another year. The transition to seniors usually is quite tough, but I don't see why any of these two couples wouldn't have a chance to make an Olympic team in 2018.



I thought you can be 21 in Ice Dance. My mistake :p

If you turn 21 after the cut off date then you can...but only for men in pairs and dance.
 
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Giselle

Medalist
Joined
Oct 15, 2014
So Lauriault/LeGac are guaranteed 1 spot right?
It would be smart for the French Fed to have the two remaining host picks as TBD so Lauriault/LeGac can get assigned to another GP and then give them the host pick at TEB. Hopefully they will assign Lauriault/LeGac because last year they ended up not using their host pick and with Papadakis/Cizeron injuried we ended up with no French Ice dance team at TEB.

Abachkina/Thauron will probably stay Juniors.
 

chuckm

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Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Don't forget--Host Picks come first!
So TEB picks #1 P/C, which means #3 Chock/Bates and #2 Shibs can't skate there.
S/A picks #2 Shibs; #1 P/C can't skate there.
SC picks #5 Weaver / Poje
Traditionally, the top 3 seeds get their preferences outside the host picks.
#1 P/C has TEB and can choose SC, CoC, CoR, NHK as their 2nd event. Since they train in Canada, they might theoretically choose SC.
#2 Shibs have SA and can choose from CoC, CoR and NHK as their second event. They would likely choose NHK.
#3 Chock/Bates are left with CoC and CoR.
Seeds 4-6 are chosen either by preliminary host pick (Weaver/Poje) or by the usual host draw selection method, before the Worlds 7-12 selection.
 
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Giselle

Medalist
Joined
Oct 15, 2014
Don't forget--Host Picks come first!
So TEB picks #1 P/C, which means #3 Chock/Bates and #2 Shibs can't skate there.
S/A picks #2 Shibs; #1 P/C can't skate there.
SC picks #5 Weaver / Poje
Traditionally, the top 3 seeds get their preferences outside the host picks.
#1 P/C has TEB and can choose SC, CoC, CoR, NHK as their 2nd event. Since they train in Canada, they might theoretically choose SC.
#2 Shibs have SA and can choose from CoC, CoR and NHK as their second event. They would likely choose NHK.
#3 Chock/Bates are left with CoC and CoR.
Seeds 4-6 are chosen either by preliminary host pick (Weaver/Poje) or by the usual host draw selection method, before the Worlds 7-12 selection.

It will be interesting if P/C pick SC since Virtue & Moir will be there. In 2013 they went to CoR and TEB, in 2014 to CoC and TEB and last year were assigned to TEB and NHK so they've never been assigned to SA or SC in the past. SC or NHK is probably the best bet since COC and COR are close to TEB next year. IMO they'll go with NHK.

Just a reminder of the GP orders next season:

October 21–23 Skate America
October 28-30 Skate Canada
November 4–6 Rostelecom Cup
November 11–13 Trophée Éric Bompard
November 18–20 Cup of China
November 25–27 NHK Trophy
December 8-11 Grand Prix Final
 
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