Team Challenge Cup: Predictions Game Rd. 4

CaroLiza_fan · Apr 18, 2016

Here is the thread where you can make your predictions for the Team Challenge Cup.

Entries/Results Page:
http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2016/23073/results.html

The competitions start on 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] April 2016 sometime after 19:30 PDT (03:30 BST / 02:30 GMT) with the Men’s and Ladies SP’s.

So, the target time to get your predictions in is 1 hour before that, i.e. 18:30 PDT (02:30 BST / 01:30 GMT)

Due to the strange format of this event (and the lack of a concrete schedule :bang:

), I am afraid that we will NOT be accepting entries after the first competition has started.

If you need any help working out what time this is where you are, here is the Time Converter that Mrs. P has been very kindly directing us to the past couple of years.

Entries

The Entries/Results page is not up yet, so I have made out the tables myself. So, apologies if I have made any mistakes!

Ladies:

No.	Name	Nation	Team
1.	Rika HONGO	JPN	Team Asia
2.	Satoko MIYAHARA	JPN	Team Asia
3.	Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA	KAZ	Team Asia
4.	Roberta RODEGHIERO	ITA	Team Europe
5.	Evgenia MEDVEDEVA	RUS	Team Europe
6.	Elena RADIONOVA	RUS	Team Europe
7.	Gabrielle DALEMAN	CAN	Team North America
8.	Gracie GOLD	USA	Team North America
9.	Ashley WAGNER	USA	Team North America

No.	Name	Nation	Team
W/D	Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA	RUS	Team Europe

Men:

No.	Name	Nation	Team
1.	Boyang JIN	CHN	Team Asia
2.	Shoma UNO	JPN	Team Asia
3.	Denis TEN	KAZ	Team Asia
4.	Michal BREZINA	CZE	Team Europe
5.	Mikhail KOLYADA	RUS	Team Europe
6.	Sergei VORONOV	RUS	Team Europe
7.	Nam NGUYEN	CAN	Team North America
8.	Jason BROWN	USA	Team North America
9.	Adam RIPPON	USA	Team North America

No.	Name	Nation	Team
W/D	Maxim KOVTUN	RUS	Team Europe

Pairs:

No.	Name	Nation	Team
1.	Xuehan WANG / Lei WANG	CHN	Team Asia
2.	Sumire SUTO / Francis BOUDREAU AUDET	JPN	Team Asia
3.	Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE	ITA	Team Europe
4.	Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV	RUS	Team Europe
5.	Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD	CAN	Team North America
6.	Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM	USA	Team North America

No.	Name	Nation	Team
W/D	Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN	CHN	Team Asia

Dance:

No.	Name	Nation	Team
1.	Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU	CHN	Team Asia
2.	Rebeka KIM / Kirill MINOV	KOR	Team Asia
3.	Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND	GBR	Team Europe
4.	Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE	ITA	Team Europe
5.	Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE	CAN	Team North America
6.	Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES	USA	Team North America

No.	Name	Nation	Team
W/D	Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON	FRA	Team Europe

Team:

No.	Name	Skaters	Nation	Category
1.	Team Asia	Rika HONGO Satoko MIYAHARA Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA Boyang JIN Shoma UNO Denis TEN Xuehan WANG / Lei WANG Sumire SUTO / Francis BOUDREAU AUDET Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU Rebeka KIM / Kirill MINOV	JPN JPN KAZ CHN JPN KAZ CHN JPN CHN KOR	Ladies Ladies Ladies Men Men Men Pairs Pairs Dance Dance
2.	Team Europe	Roberta RODEGHIERO Evgenia MEDVEDEVA Elena RADIONOVA Michal BREZINA Mikhail KOLYADA Sergei VORONOV Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE	ITA RUS RUS CZE RUS RUS ITA RUS GBR ITA	Ladies Ladies Ladies Men Men Men Pairs Pairs Dance Dance
3.	Team North America	Gabrielle DALEMAN Gracie GOLD Ashley WAGNER Nam NGUYEN Jason BROWN Adam RIPPON Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES	CAN USA USA CAN USA USA CAN USA CAN USA	Ladies Ladies Ladies Men Men Men Pairs Pairs Dance Dance

No.	Team	Name	Nation	Category
W/D	Team Asia	Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN	CHN	Pairs
W/D	Team Europe	Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA	RUS	Ladies
W/D	Team Europe	Maxim KOVTUN	RUS	Men
W/D	Team Europe	Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON	FRA	Dance

EDIT (19[SUP]th[/SUP] April 2016, 06:12 GMT): Replaced Maxim Kovtun with Mikhail Kolyada in the Men's Entries, and removed Gabriella Papadakis / Guillaume Cizeron from the Ice Dance Entries.

EDIT (19[SUP]th[/SUP] April 2016, 17:10 GMT): Added Penny Coomes / Nicholas Buckland to the Ice Dance Entries.

Let the fun begin!!! :biggrin:

CaroLiza_fan

shyne · Apr 18, 2016

Ladies SP

1. Team Europe
2. Team Asia
3. Team North America

Men's SP

1. Team Asia
2. Team Europe
3. Team North America

Ladies FS

1. Team Europe
2. Team Asia
3. Team North America

Men's FS

1. Team Asia
2. Team North America
3. Team Europe

Pairs

1. Team North America
2. Team Europe
3. Team Asia

Ice Dance

1. Team North America
2. Team Europe
3. Team Asia

Team

1. Team North America
2. Team Europe
3. Team Asia

Individual

Men
1. Jin
2. Uno
3. Kolyada
4. Ten
5. Brown
6. Rippon

Ladies
1. Medvedeva
2. Gold
3. Miyahara
4. Wagner
5. Radionova
6. Hongo

Dance
1. Weaver/Poje
2. Chock/Bates
3. Capellini/Lanotte
4. Coomes/Buckland
5. Wang/Liu
6. Kim/Minov

Pairs
1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Stolbova/Klimov
3. Scimeca/Knierim
4. Wang/Wang
5. Della Monica/Guarise
6. Soto/Boudreau-Audet

Layback11 · Apr 18, 2016

Singles
1. Team Europe
2. Team Asia
3. Team North America

Dance
1. Team Europe
2. Team North America
3. Team Asia

Pairs
1. Team North America
2. Team Europe
3. Team Asia

Individual

Men
1. Jin
2. Uno
3. Kolyada
4. Rippon
5. Ten
6. Brown

Ladies
1. Medvedeva
2. Miyahara
3. Gold
4. Wagner
5. Radionova
6. Hongo

Dance
1. Chock/Bates
2. Capellini/Lanotte
3. Weaver/Poje
4. Kim/Minov
5. Wang/Liu

Since we don't know who will replace P/C, this is it for now.

Pairs
1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Stolbova/Klimov
3. Scimeca/Knierim
4. Della Monica/Guarise
5. Wang/Wang
6. Soto/Boudreau-Audet

invisiblespiral · Apr 18, 2016

Okay, team predictions. Might do individual later.

Men:

1. Asia
2. North America
3. Europe

Ladies:

1. Asia
2. Europe
3. North America

Pairs:

1. North America
2. Europe
3. Asia

Dance:

1. North America
2. Europe
3. Asia

And individuals:

Men:

1. Jin
2. Uno
3. Rippon
4. Kolyada
5. Brown
6. Ten

Ladies:

1. Medvedeva
2. Miyahara
3. Wagner
4. Gold
5. Radionova
6. Hongo

Pairs:

1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Stolbova/Klimov
3. Scimeca/Knierim
4. Della-Monica/Guarise
5. Wang/Wang
6. Suto/Audet

Dance:

1. Chock/Bates
2. Weaver/Poje
3. Cappellini/Lannote
4. Coomes/Buckland
5. Wang/Liu
6. Kim/Minov

:scratch:

CaroLiza_fan · Apr 18, 2016

shyne said:
(or are we making predictions on individual's ranking?)

Oops. Sorry, I forgot that there was a debate over how to approach making predictions on the TCC.

Personally, I would prefer to do individuals. But, I have read the rules in each day's competition thread, and I can't understand how it works at all.

So, in light of this, I think this might be the best compromise:

Provisionally make predictions on the skaters in each category (Ladies, Men, Pairs, Dance) as we normally do.
Make predictions on the overall Team result, just like we do with the WTT.

If it is not possible to work out proper results for each category, then we will forget about the category predictions, and only score the Team predictions.

If it is possible to work out proper results for each category, then we will score the category predictions as well as the Team predictions

(And if the organisers don't give us results tables, I will make results tables out myself, just like I did with the WTT last year).

I don't like there being so many question marks about the scoring, but what can you do? The format of the event is just too confusing.

I'm telling you, the way this this whole event is being run is a total disaster.

CaroLiza_fan

ice coverage · Apr 18, 2016

In case the summary below is helpful, TCC prize money will be awarded for the following:

Friday:

- Team results for Singles SPs (combination of results for men and ladies; details below)
- Individual man (out of all nine entries) with highest SP score
- Individual lady (out of all nine entries) with highest SP score

Saturday

- Team results (combination of results for FD + results of free skates for men, ladies, and pairs)
- Individual pair (out of all six entries) with highest FS score
- Individual dance couple (out of all six entries) with highest FD score

But all of that said, of course I realize that the categories for the GS predictions game do not have to follow the TCC prize structure.
(I do not have a dog in the hunt. I am not playing the game.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Additional notes re the TCC format:

- Friday's SP results (both team and individual) do not carry over whatsoever to Saturday.
- And the prize money for Friday's three categories is separate from the prize money for Saturday's three categories.

- Friday's team SP results are based on placement points awarded within three flights.

(Each flight has one man and one lady from each team. Top man in each flight earns 12 placement points; 2nd place = 10 pts.; 3rd = 8 pts. Ditto for ladies.)

- Placement points from all three men and all three ladies on each team count toward the Friday team SP results.

- Saturday's team FD/FS results are based on scores. And for each team:

The lower of the two scores for the FD do not count; same for the pairs FS.
And the lowest of the three scores for the men's FS do not count; same for the ladies FS.

ETA:

Per USFS: Kovtun has withdrawn; Kolyada replaces him on Team Europe.

https://twitter.com/USFigureSkating/status/722083211946303489 (Apr 18)

CaroLiza_fan · Apr 19, 2016

Right, this is getting to be a right mess, with constantly changing personnel in the teams.

I've updated the Entry lists in the Original Post with what we know at the moment - that Kovtun has been replaced with Kolyada, and that Papadakis / Cizeron are out.

Starting to think it was a mistake to make predictions on the individual skaters...

CaroLiza_fan

CaroLiza_fan · Apr 19, 2016

golden411icecoverage said:
In case the summary below is helpful, TCC prize money will be awarded for the following:

Friday:

- Team results for Singles SPs (combination of results for men and ladies; details below)
- Individual man (out of all nine entries) with highest SP score
- Individual lady (out of all nine entries) with highest SP score

Saturday

- Team results (combination of results for FD + results of free skates for men, ladies, and pairs)
- Individual pair (out of all six entries) with highest FS score
- Individual dance couple (out of all six entries) with highest FD score

But all of that said, of course I realize that the categories for the GS predictions game do not have to follow the TCC prize structure.
(I do not have a dog in the hunt. I am not playing the game.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Additional notes re the TCC format:

- Friday's SP results (both team and individual) do not carry over whatsoever to Saturday.
- And the prize money for Friday's three categories is separate from the prize money for Saturday's three categories.

- Friday's team SP results are based on placement points awarded within three flights.

(Each flight has one man and one lady from each team. Top man in each flight earns 12 placement points; 2nd place = 10 pts.; 3rd = 8 pts. Ditto for ladies.)
- Placement points from all three men and all three ladies on each team count toward the Friday team SP results.

- Saturday's team FD/FS results are based on scores. And for each team:

The lower of the two scores for the FD do not count; same for the pairs FS.
And the lowest of the three scores for the men's FS do not count; same for the ladies FS.

Thank you, Golden! :bow:

You know, I read through the posts in the competition threads a few times yesterday, and thought I had finally got my head around it. I thought "Aha! It's a normal 2 round competition for the Singles skaters, and just a FS for the couples. Unfair, but straightforward enough."

And then I read your post.

So, the SP scores don't carry forward.

Well, what is the point in having the SP, then?! They may as well have it as just a Free Skate competition, like the Japan Open!

I know I've said it before in the thread in The Edge, but the more I find out about this event, the less I like it.

CaroLiza_fan

CaroLiza_fan · Apr 19, 2016

OK. In light of recent (and not-so-recent) developments, I have been thinking.

Firstly, since the teams seem to have revolving doors, I think we should just abandon the idea of predicting on the order the individual skaters finish in for each category, and instead predict on the order that the teams finish in for each category.

Secondly, since only the Singles skaters have an SP, and since the scores don't carry forward, I propose that we predict on the FS results only.

So, in essence, we will have 5 lists composed of the same 3 names.

Here is an example of how the predictions would look:

TEAM CHALLENGE CUP

Ladies FS

1. Team Future
2. Team Desire
3. Team Discovery

Men's FS

1. Team Discovery
2. Team Desire
3. Team Future

Pairs

1. Team Future
2. Team Desire
3. Team Discovery

Ice Dance

1. Team Desire
2. Team Discovery
3. Team Future

Team

1. Team Desire
2. Team Future
3. Team Discovery

(I have used the names of the Top 3 teams overall in the YOG Team Event, so that the scorers don't mistakingly think that these are my predictions!)

Or, to put it another way, I am now proposing that we do what Golden suggested we should do for the TCC back in January, when the ISU Predictions Game was being set up...! :slink:

It just goes to show - Golden really does know best! :bow:

Sorry that this round of the Predictions Game is becoming a joke. But, what do you expect when the event itself is as well...

CaroLiza_fan

ice coverage · Apr 19, 2016

CaroLiza_fan said:
OK. In light of recent (and not-so-recent) developments, I have been thinking.

Firstly, since the teams seem to have revolving doors, I think we should just abandon the idea of predicting on the order the individual skaters finish in for each category, and instead predict on the order that the teams finish in for each category.

Secondly, since only the Singles skaters have an SP, and since the scores don't carry forward, I propose that we predict on the FS results only.

So, in essence, we will have 5 lists composed of the same 3 names.

Here is an example of how the predictions would look:

TEAM CHALLENGE CUP

Ladies FS

1. Team Future
2. Team Desire
3. Team Discovery

Men's FS

1. Team Discovery
2. Team Desire
3. Team Future

Pairs

1. Team Future
2. Team Desire
3. Team Discovery

Ice Dance

1. Team Desire
2. Team Discovery
3. Team Future

Team

1. Team Desire
2. Team Future
3. Team Discovery

(I have used the names of the Top 3 teams overall in the YOG Team Event, so that the scorers don't mistakingly think that these are my predictions!)

Or, to put it another way, I am now proposing that we do what Golden suggested we should do for the TCC back in January, when the ISU Predictions Game was being set up...!

It just goes to show - Golden really does know best!

Sorry that this round of the Predictions Game is becoming a joke. But, what do you expect when the event itself is as well...

CaroLiza_fan

Huge disclaimer that my proposal for how to structure the TCC game in fact would differ greatly from CL_fan's.

But what exactly I would have proposed is best left unsaid, b/c I certainly am not running the TCC game.
(And b/c as usual, I am not going to play the TCC game. I have never participated in any of the GS predictions game.)

As I said before, I do not have a dog in this hunt.

As always, massive respect to CL_fan for working so hard on organizing so many GS prediction games.

CaroLiza_fan · Apr 19, 2016

golden411icecoverage said:
Huge disclaimer that my proposal for how to structure the TCC game in fact would differ greatly from CL_fan's.

But what exactly I would have proposed is best left unsaid, b/c I certainly am not running the TCC game.
(And b/c as usual, I am not going to play the TCC game. I have never participated in any of the GS predictions game.)

As I said before, I do not have a dog in this hunt.

As always, massive respect to CL_fan for working so hard on organizing so many GS prediction games.

OK, so my proposal is not eactly the same. But, it was inspired greatly by your's.

You realised way back then that running the predictions on the TCC the same way as the WTT was not going to work (probably because you understood the rules of the event, while I didn't). And you were the one that suggested having separate predictions for the SP and the FS.

The only major changes I made were to do away with predicting on the SP, and to keep the separate category predictions.

So, in my books, you do deserve a good chunk of the credit!

Incidentally, except that it would leave the players that wanted to make predictions disappointed, I would have just scrapped the TCC round completely. That is how fed up I am getting with everything to do with the TCC!

CaroLiza_fan

ice coverage · Apr 19, 2016

CaroLiza_fan said:
... The only major changes I made were to do away with predicting on the SP, and to keep the separate category predictions.

So, in my books, you do deserve a good chunk of the credit!

...

Actually, I have additional differences in mind, so I really want to respectfully dissociate myself completely from your proposal -- without undermining it.

The one thing on which I think we are in agreement is that the complexities of the TCC competition format are overshadowing its innovations.

[Inevitable that the large number of details would be counterproductive. Surprised that the TCC organizers did not anticipate that the long list of rules would dampen enthusiasm for their new comp.]

ETA, this morning USFS officially announced that Coomes/Buckland are replacing P/C:

https://twitter.com/USFigureSkating/status/722447664147619841

CaroLiza_fan · Apr 19, 2016

golden411icecoverage said:
Actually, I have additional differences in mind, so I really want to respectfully dissociate myself completely from your proposal -- without undermining it.

The one thing on which I think we are in agreement is that the complexities of the TCC competition format are overshadowing its innovations.

[Inevitable that the large number of details would be counterproductive. Surprised that the TCC organizers did not anticipate that the long list of rules would dampen enthusiasm for their new comp.]

Well, hopefully now that this format has proved so unpopular, the powers that be will take the rules back to something more along the lines of the WTT format for the next edition. (And I really hope there will be a next edition, because I do like the idea of a team competition based on continents).

golden411icecoverage said:
ETA, this morning USFS officially announced that Coomes/Buckland are replacing P/C:

https://twitter.com/USFigureSkating/status/722447664147619841

Thanks, I'll update the tables now.

CaroLiza_fan

apgold · Apr 19, 2016

Don't really understand this event or how it will be scored but here are my picks. I do think Gracie will come roaring back here and place second after being angry at herself for her sub par Worlds performance.

Ladies FS
1. Team Europe
2. Team Asia
3. Team North America

Men's FS

1. Team Asia
2. Team Europe
3. Team North America

Dance
1. Team North America
2. Team Europe
3. Team Asia

Pairs
1. Team North America
2. Team Europe
3. Team Asia

Overall
1) Team Europe
2) Team North America
3) Team Asia

Skaters just for fun....

Men
1. Jin
2. Uno
3. Kolyada
4. Rippon
5. Brown
6. Ten

Ladies
1. Medvedeva
2. Gold
3. Wagner
4. Miyahara
5. Radionova
6. Hongo

Dance
1. Chock/Bates
2. Weaver/Poje
3. Capellini/Lanotte
4. Coomes/Buckland
5. Wang/Liu
6. Kim/Minov

Pairs
1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Stolbova/Klimov
3. Scimeca/Knierim
4. Della Monica/Guarise
5. Wang/Wang
6. Soto/Boudreau-Audet

puremagic · Apr 19, 2016

Men
1. Jin
2. Uno
3. Ten
4. Rippon
5. Kolyada
6. Brown

Ladies
1. Medvedeva
2. Radionova
3. Miyahara
4. Hongo
5. Wagner
6. Gold

Dance
1. Weaver/Poje
2. Capellini/Lanotte
3. Chock/Bates
4. Coomes/Buckland
5. Kim/Minov
6. Wang/Liu

Pairs
1. Stolbova/Klimov
2. Duhamel/Radford
3. Scimeca/Knierim
4. Wang/Wang
5. Della Monica/Guarise
6. Soto/Boudreau-Audet

Sabrina · Apr 20, 2016

Men
1. Jin Boyang
2. Shoma Uno
3. M. Koliada
4. J. Brown
5. A. Rippon

Ladies
1. Medvedeva
2. Rdionova
3. Hongo
4. Miyahara
5. Wagner
6. Gold

Dance
1. Weaver/Poje
2. Capellini/Lanotte
3. Chock/Bates
4. Coomes/Buckland
5. Kim/Minov
6. Wang/Liu

Pairs
1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Stolbova/Klimov
3. Wang/ Wang
4. Scimeca/Knerim
5. Della Monica/ Guarise
6. Soto/Boudreau-Audet

matmuh · Apr 21, 2016

before we make predictions i want to be sure which format we are gonna use. CaroLiza, is new format at THIS POST final?

CaroLiza_fan · Apr 21, 2016

matmuh said:
before we make predictions i want to be sure which format we are gonna use. CaroLiza, is new format at THIS POST final?

Yes.

Apart from anything else, I thought it would be fairer on the early posters to do it that way, since that was how they posted their predictions.

But everybody that has been posting since then is doing it the original way!

Given that this is becoming such a mess, I think we should just declare it a non-scoring round.

And when the competition is over, I'll prepare tables of results for all the different ways that the predictions are being made.

(I should add - I will be away at a motorbike race on Saturday. So, it won't be done until Sunday at the earliest)

CaroLiza_fan

TMC · Apr 21, 2016

So no individual predictions, just teams?

CaroLiza_fan · Apr 21, 2016

TMC said:
So no individual predictions, just teams?

Yeah. Instead of the skaters in each of the 5 categories, it will be the three teams in each of the 5 categories.

It was getting far too complicated with the strange format, and with the personnel of the teams changing.

I would have preferred predicting on the individual skaters, but hey!

CaroLiza_fan

Team Challenge Cup: Predictions Game Rd. 4

CaroLiza_fan

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shyne

Layback11

invisiblespiral

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ice coverage

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CaroLiza_fan

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ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605

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apgold

puremagic

-

Sabrina

matmuh

what are levels anyway

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TMC

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