JGP St. Gervais: Predictions Game Round 1

CaroLiza_fan, I would have not enough time to watch clips of the listed ice dancing teams (except Ponomarenko's son..I have no idea who they are) within the deadline. Can I make a separate prediction post on ice dance later?

MEN
1. Tomoki HIWATASHI
2. Koshiro SHIMADA
3. Yaroslav PANIOT
4. Kevin AYMOZ
5. Roma SAVOSIN
6. Si Hyeong LEE


LADIES
1. Kaori SAKAMOTO
2. Rin NITAYA
3. Ye Lim KIM
4. Anna TARUSINA
5. Alizee CROZET
6. Alexia PAGANINI

DANCE
1. Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO
2. Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO
3. Angelique ABACHKINA / Louis THAURON
4. Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV
5. Nicole KUZMICH / Alexandr SINICYN
6. Ashlynne STAIRS / Lee ROYER
7. Emilia KALEHANAVA / Uladzislau PALKHOUSKI

Crossover said:

CaroLiza_fan, I would have not enough time to watch clips of the listed ice dancing teams (except Ponomarenko's son..I have no idea who they are) within the deadline. Can I make a separate prediction post on ice dance later?

Click to expand...

Since the Ice Dance doesn't start until tomorrow, yeah that's fine.

This tough talking is just make sure that the players know that we are tightening things up compared to in the past. In circumstances like this where categoriess start on a different day, we will use our discretion to allow them, so long as any previous predictions posts are not edited.

And to your research methods. I know I look up PB's, but I don't take the time to watch routines (which would probably be a better method, to be honest!)

CaroLiza_fan

I wasn’t going to bother doing my normal scientific method this season, and instead intended to go with a combination of my gut and my heart.

But when I saw how few names I recognised in this first Junior GP, that was that idea out the window. Back to the research it was!

I started with the ladies, and found that only 15 of them had ISU Bios that had PB scores on them. Now, from the conversations on here, I recognised some of the names amongst those that did not have full Bios (e.g. Anna Tarusina, Kim Ye Lim), and realised that they would be amongst the contenders.

So, it was straight onto Stats On Ice. And I managed to reduce it down to only 2 without. However, one of them was Russian. And because of this, I had a feeling that she might be significant. So, I looked up her profile on the Russian Federation’s website, and found she had the highest absolute PB of the whole field!

Phew! Thank goodness I decided to dig further!

Anyway, the only thing I was dithering over was in which order to put the Japanese girls. Nitaya had a much higher absolute PB, which was scored at last year’s Senior Nationals. But Sakamoto had the much higher ISU PB, which was also her absolute PB. The only competitions they both competed in last year were Junior and Senior Nationals, and Nitaya finished higher in both. But, if you look back further, Sakamoto has the better run of results.

In the end, everything was pointing toward Nitaya being the Japanese girl that had the best form recently. So, I kept her ahead of Sakamoto.

With the Men, there were a lot more names that I recognised. Fortunately enough, though, only one of the unfamiliar names had an absolute PB that put him into a scoring position. And I was happy enough with the absolute PB order for the guys around him, so I decided to keep him in position too.

With Pairs, it was easy enough. There is no Pairs competition here!!!

Ice Dance not only had a much smaller field of entries, but it also had a much smaller number of names that I recognised. I only recognised half of the field. On the other hand, five of them were in the Top 6 positions when ordered by absolute PB. So, that was fortunate.

The absolute PB’s were practically identical for the top 2 couples. And, although lower, their ISU PB’s were also practically identical. So, it was a toss up as to who to put at the top. The only way you could separate them was by looking at where they were in the ISU World Standings and the ISU Season’s World Rankings. The French couple were at least a dozen places higher than the Americans in both, so I went with them.

When comparing PB’s , there was only one other possible change I could have made. That was between the second Russian couple, Sofia Polishchuk / Alexander Vakhnov, and the second American couple, Eliana Gropman / Ian Somerville, who had relatively similar absolute PB’s. But, since the Americans were the couple that I was unfamiliar with, I kept them behind the Russians.

So, that’s my methodology. Let’s hope it works.

Caroliza_fan


JGP ST. GERVAIS

Ladies

1. Alina ZAGITOVA, RUS
2. Rin NITAYA, JPN
3. Kaori SAKAMOTO, JPN
4. Ye Lim KIM, KOR
5. Maisy Hiu Ching MA, HKG
6. Anna TARUSINA, RUS

Just for fun
7. Alexia PAGANINI, USA
8. Kristina ISAEV, GER
9. Emmi PELTONEN, FIN
10. Alizee CROZET, FRA


Men

1. Tomoki HIWATASHI, USA
2. Yaroslav PANIOT, UKR
3. Kevin AYMOZ, FRA
4. Ilia SKIRDA, RUS
5. Koshiro SHIMADA, JPN
6. Graham NEWBERRY, GBR

Just for fun
7. Petr KOTLARIK, CZE
8. Roman SAVOSIN, RUS
9. Daniel GRASSL, ITA
10. Yakau ZENKO, BLR


Ice Dance

1. Angelique ABACHKINA / Louis THAURON, FRA
2. Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO, USA
3. Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO, RUS
4. Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV, RUS
5. Eliana GROPMAN / Ian SOMERVILLE, USA
6. Nicole KUZMICH / Alexandr SINICYN, CZE

Just for fun
7. Natacha LAGOUGE / Corentin RAHIER, FRA
8. Emilia KALEHANAVA / Uladzislau PALKHOUSKI, BLR
9. Loica DEMOUGEOT / Theo LE MERCIER, FRA
10. Ashlynne STAIRS / Lee ROYER, CAN

I am afraid that the deadline for getting your predictions in has now passed. (It actually passed 20 minutes ago, but I was having my dinner!)

40 minutes to go until the new season starts in earnest!!!

...and still no sign of any livestreams.

CaroLiza_fan

Ice Dance (my prediction on men and ladies was posted earlier)

My prediction goes like below considering the skaters' career, talents, potentials, their federations' politicking, starting order. Although I think the name, Ponomarenko is very big, I don't see Carriera's capacity reaches anywhere near the level of Abchkina yet. The two Russian teams look very promising. I'm curious about how much they are improved from last season.

1. Angelique ABACHKINA / Louis THAURON (FRA)
2. Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO (USA)
3. Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO (RUS)
4. Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV (RUS)
5. Natacha LAGOUGE / Corentin RAHIER (FRA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
6. Eliana GROPMAN / Ian SOMERVILLE (USA)
7. Nicole KUZMICH / Alexandr SINICYN (CZE)
8. Ashlynne STAIRS / Lee ROYER (CAN)
9. Emilia KALEHANAVA / Uladzislau PALKHOUSKI (BLR)
10. Alexandra BORISOVA / Cezary ZAWADZKI (POL)

ICE DANCE Results

It's time for the first results of prediction games of the new 2016/2017 season. For the Ice Dance discipline of the first JGP event we had 27 eligible predictions, which is pretty good amount if you ask me considering that FD thread after the competition only has 2 pages in it. Not many people follow JGP series, so I take 27 predictions as a succsess!
This time we have no perfect score for ID, but we have a sole winner! With a total score of 65 GOLD MEDAL goes to Greta. My congratulations! :yay:

1st place: Greta - 65 points! :agree:
2nd place: silver medal shared by 9 competitors - Crossover, Elen2702, Lyssa, Marin, mom2cavs, PorcoPlane, sneakers, StitchMonkey, sunnystars - 55 points. Well done.:dance:
3rd place: and bronze medal goes to Sugarpova - 50 points. Congratulations!

The rest of the players have 45 points or less.
Congratulations to the winner and all the medalists. Hopefully you will continue to play and win.

P.S. As usual, if you find any mistakes with your score, don't hesitate to contact me.

Men's Results are IN!! but its not great all i can say is "Welcome to the unpredicability of men's figure skating"

Gold Medal : Gia_Sesshoumaru with 55 points!!! :hap57:

Silver Medal : invisiblespiral with 45 points!! :hap57:

Bronze Medal : Florencito with 40 points!



looking at predictions Tomoki was the biggest surprise (not in a good way ) followed by Yaroslav sad21 and Kevin

as snow said, if there are any mistakes, feel free to contact me!

So... thanks to Tarusina withdrawing, most people over-estimating Kim, and most people under-estimating Zagitova, scores aren't all that high. However, we still have medals to award.

Gold: Elen2702, with 60 points!
Silver: The Finn, Florencito, Arteaz, stryke, and CaroLiza_Fan, with 50 points!
Bronze: sneakers, with 45 points! :clapper:

If anyone thinks I got their score wrong, PM me and I'll check.

Just to let you know that I have posted the podium position tables for this round, as well as the Czech Skate round, to the HALL OF FAME thread.

Round 1: JGP St. Gervais

Hope this helps

CaroLiza_fan