Who will make it to the JGP final?

The Finn said:

Russian Fed put Samarin to JGP Estonia istead of Erokhov, so, Erokhov most likely will not make it to the final. Wrong move by Russian fed. They should have put Erokhov to Estonia, he could have won there.

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Samarin has a gold, and knowing anything can happen. Its actually a good move to move him in Estonia where his only high competitor is Zhou,
it was good move for Krasnozhon in Slovenia.

If there are no meltdowns from the leaders, it should be

Krasnozhon
Savosin
Cha
Samarin
Zhou
Torgashev

Any hope for Erokhov?

I will be terribly depressed if Savosin and Samarin are the only 2 Russians who make it.

Let's break it down!

1 Alexei KRASNOZHON 28 (1st) 434.78
2 Roman SAVOSIN 26 (1st) 405.92
3 Ilia SKIRDA 26 (2nd) 398.82
4 Dmitri ALIEV 24 (1st) 433.74


Top contenders left for a second event:
1. Jun Hwan CHA 15 239.47 (Germany)
2. Alexander SAMARIN 15 228.33 (Estonia)
3. Vincent ZHOU 13 226.39 (Estonia)
4. Andrew TORGASHEV 204.91 (Germany)

Can also qualify for JGPF or play spoiler:
1. Alexey EROKHOV 11 216.91 (Germany)
2. Koshiro SHIMADA 11 186.18 (Estonia)
3. Petr GUMENNIK 9 191.06 (Estonia)
4. Roman SADOVSKY 7 211.55 (Estonia)


SCENARIOS:

AT ESTONIA:
If Vincent Zhou and Alexander Samarin go 1+2 in that order, they are both pass Skirda and Aliev in the rankings.
If Alexander Samarin and Vincent Zhou go 1+2 in that order (and Vincent scores 172.43 or higher) they again pass Skirda and Aliev in the ratings.
If Vincent Zhou drops to bronze, he will fall below Aliev.
If Alexander Samarin drops to 4th place (and scores below 205.40 overall) he will fall below Aliev.

AT GERMANY
If Jun Hwan Cha and Andrew Torgashev goes 1+2, in that order they will pass Aliev. Torgashev will need 193.91 to be above Skirda.
If Andrew Torgashev goes bronze or later, he will fall below Aliev.
If Jun Hwan Cha falls to 4th place (and scores below 194.26) he will fall below Aliev.


So basically if Aliev wants to stay in the final, he will likely need several of the following scenarios to happen

- Vincent Zhou to drop to bronze in Estonia.
- Andrew Torgashev to drop to bronze in Germany.
- Jun Hwan Cha to drop to fourth place and score 194.26 or lower
- Alexander Samarin to drop to fourth place and score 205.40 or lower.
- For Erokhov and Shimada to not win their respective JGP events.
- For Petr Gumennik to not win his event and score more than 242.69 points (this seems to be an unlikely scenario).



Basically Zhou and Torgashev are the "easiest" targets. Cha and Samarin's 1st place gives them a little breathing room.

I think Roman Sadovsky is the biggest spoiler.

Erokhov can actually play spoiler in Germany.

silverfoxes said:

I will be terribly depressed if Savosin and Samarin are the only 2 Russians who make it.

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"Only" 2 Russians? You've been spoilt.

No Canadians or Japanese are likely to make it this year, not to mention anyone from smaller federations other than Jun Hwan. What I wouldn't give for some French flair. :sigh:

Moria Polonius said:

"Only" 2 Russians? You've been spoilt.

No Canadians or Japanese are likely to make it this year, not to mention anyone from smaller federations other than Jun Hwan. What I wouldn't give for some French flair. :sigh:

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My dream line-up for JGPF: one can dream a dream although it can't be achievable.

Zhou (USA)
Torgashev (USA)
Nadeau (CAN)
Cha (KOR)
Aymoz (FRA)
Aliev (RUS)
Erokhov (RUS)
Kovalev (RUS)

It is a pity that only 6 junior skaters have been invited to JGPF since 2011.

Crossover said:

My dream line-up for JGPF: one can dream a dream although it can't be achievable.

Zhou (USA)
Torgashev (USA)
Nadeau (CAN)
Cha (KOR)
Aymoz (FRA)
Aliev (RUS)
Erokhov (RUS)
Kovalev (RUS)

It is a pity that only 6 junior skaters have been invited to JGPF since 2011.

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I rather liked the 8-person lineup that existed before. Under that --Aliev would have easily been in it, even with the 4th place finish. I think the reason they changed it is because they combined the JGPF and GPF into one event, IIRC.

Mrs. P said:

So basically if Aliev wants to stay in the final, he needs one of the following scenarios:
- Vincent Zhou or Andrew Torgashev to drop to bronze.
- Jun Hwan Cha to drop to fourth place and score 194.26 or lower.
- Alexander Samarin to drop to fourth place and score 205.40 or lower.

Basically Zhou and Torgashev are the "easiest" targets. Cha and Samarin's 1st place gives them a little breathing room.

I think Roman Sadovsky is the biggest spoiler.

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Doesn't Aliev actually need TWO of those things to happen?

lynnems said:

Doesn't Aliev actually need TWO of those things to happen?

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Yes, I think you're right.

I think tremendous calculation aside, the probabilities are not in his favor at this point, but then again who expected him to bomb so badly today. That said, I feel like this kind of thing happens in junior men often.

Yan Han was the reigning junior world champion in 2012 but bombed his second JGP event and didn't make the 2012-2013 final.

I find very unlikely Cha to bomb his competition and place under 4th place and score less than 192 points unless he suffers an injury or so b/c he is a very consistent+mentally strong skater. If Aliev wants to come to the final, he would have to hope one of the silver medalists to place under 3rd place and the most realistic one would be Torgashev, who's competing against Russians and Cha...

I think the biggest chances for Dima Aliev is that some spoiler skaters will make Torgashev and Zhou drop to 3 place. Also suprised that Japanese Men are not doing that well this season... (but maybe they will be a spoilers in last two events!).

ericpkh98 said:

I find very unlikely Cha to bomb his competition and place under 4th place and score less than 192 points unless he suffers an injury or so b/c he is a very consistent+mentally strong skater.

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knock on wood! and i should too cause i agree

Definitely in after Slovenia

Sakamoto (28, 1st/2nd)
Kihira (28, 1st/2nd)

Possibly in:

Zagitova (26, 1st/3rd)
Honda (26, 2nd/2nd)

Other contenders:

(Points, Placement, Score, Next Assignment)

Gubanova (15, 1st, 185.59, Germany)
Tsurskaya (15, 1st, 183.73, Estonia)
Konstantinova (13, 2nd, 185.51, Germany)
Yamashita (11, 3rd, 182.43, Estonia)
Nitaya (11, 3rd, 175.01, Estonia)
Nugumanova (11, 3rd, 173.13, Estonia)

I have a feeling it will come down to scores for Honda vs. Konstantinova.

OK, we have now in junior ladies:

Sakamoto 1+2 in
Kihira 1+2 in
Zagitova 1+3 likely in

Now to get 3 more ladies in the final Russian Fed needs to change competitions for Gubanova and Nugumanova. Then next week Tsurskaya will compete with Gubanova. Both are fine with bronze. The only scenario for them to not to get it is to lose to both Nitaya and Yamashita which is quite unlikely (although Gubanova occasionally melted down last season). Then, in Dresden whoever of Nugumanova or Konstantinova wins will get to the final. If Shiraiwa wins then Konstantinova has to be second with the score 187+ to be ahead of Honda in 2+2 contest. This is an unlikely score for her, frankly speaking.

But if everything stays like it is Nugumanova will have to win over Tsurskaya and Yamashita. This is unrealistic. Then she will be likely out. In Dresden Konstantinova will have to win over Gubanova and Shiraiwa. This is unrealistic as well. Then, I think that if the switch happens it is 70% chance for 4+2 in the final. Without the switch it is 90% chance for 3+3.

Zagitova may be not in after the switch only if Yamashita and Konstantinova both win. Then there will be 4 with 1+2 and 3 with 1+3 and whoever has the lowest combined score among those with 1+3 will lose. But I don't see Yamashito's winning over both Tsyurskaya and Gubanova. She was not that impressive in Yokohama.

Chemistry66 said:

Possibly in:

Zagitova (26, 1st/3rd)

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[email protected] said:

Zagitova 1+3 likely in

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What's the scenario where Zagitova would fail to qualify at 26 points & gold?

Chemistry66 said:

Konstantinova (13, 2nd, 185.51, Germany)

I have a feeling it will come down to scores for Honda vs. Konstantinova.

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Konstantinova had 175.20 in her first event. She needs to take first place against Gubanova or second place with 187.7 points to reach the final.

voolfee said:

Konstantinova had 175.20 in her first event. She needs to take first place against Gubanova or second place with 187.7 points to reach the final.

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Sorry, I was reading the scores on my phone and tiny screens aren't conducive to those score sheets. I'd edit, but mobile editing has been uncooperative for me lately.

sabinfire said:

What's the scenario where Zagitova would fail to qualify at 26 points & gold?

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Almost unlikely to happen.
Marin loosing her spot is more likely (though I think she will qualify)