2016 JGP Ljubljana Cup Ladies SP

kalee · Sep 21, 2016

Then it goes back to the other theory I had -- not a popular one but perhaps JSF might not be willing to anoint Rika as their #2 junior lady over Yuna S just yet. From the way they separated Mako and Yuna after Yokohama, had a sense that they want Yuna to be the clear Japanese #1 in both of her comps.

To some extent it's understandable as Yuna will be age-eligible to turn senior next year. With all the new seniors this year and at least 3 others (Marin, Kaori, Rin) next year, it's going to be really hard for her to get 2 senior GP spots though.

gsyzf · Sep 21, 2016

bosskil said:
They get equal opportunities against each other, but not against the other Japanese girls, who will compete against weaker compatriots.

It doesn't matter which one of them, since it still would give her a chance to win and qualify - the chance one of them is being neglected of right now (they can't both win).

The pattern you revealed is a knock-out system of acumulating WINS: girls competing on increasing levels for the main prize and overall placement - losers of each rounds compete against themselves for lower places, winners vs winners for the higher places and the potential victory.

By rearranging the assignments after "first round" of JGP league system, using KO system, JSF is distorting the outcomes, by punishing the skaters with more points, like Honda and Kihira and rewarding skaters with less points.

It's a bit like granting a player that was knocked out in QF a late chance to play in the final match. Not fair imho.

The other Japanese girls who finished higher than 4th all get the chance to compete. It's only a question of where they compete.

The Russian girls competing in JGP this year are stronger than last year and there are more of them. They can win every JGP this season (except the JGP in Japan). They already won the first 3 JGP and they may win the last 3 JGPs too. IMO, the Japanese girls are actually all competing for silver, not gold in their JGP unless the Russian girls make big mistakes (There is no guarantee Japanese girls can win even when Russian girls make big mistakes. Rika still lost to Anastasia even when Anastasia made big mistakes.) Whoever gets two silvers, her chance to qualify for the JGPF depends on the placements of the other Russian girls.

kalee · Sep 21, 2016

Rika would have beat Anastasia if she successfully landed the triple axel. It's iffy whether that happens this year, but hoping that if she continues to try, it could happen next year. With the 3A and with Polina in seniors, she should be able to contend with any of the Russians.

gsyzf · Sep 21, 2016

kalee said:
Rika would have beat Anastasia if she successfully landed the triple axel. It's iffy whether that happens this year, but hoping that if she continues to try, it could happen next year. With the 3A and with Polina in seniors, she should be able to contend with any of the Russians.

The probability of her landing 3A (or any ladies) in competition is also not high. The judging shows that if both Rika and Anastasia are clean, Anastasia will win because Anastasia still won when both made similar number of mistakes.

YesWay · Sep 21, 2016

gsyzf said:
It's possible it's just a coincidence, but the probability of two silver medalists competing in the same event, two bronze medalists competing in the same event and two 4th place finishers competing in the same event all happen by coincidence is too low (close to 0 if you calculate the mathematical probability).

You'd have to make some assumptions to make those particular probabilities different from any other combination of finishes, and close to zero.

What assumptions are you making?

Regardless, I suspect JSF takes account of more factors than we realise, when making assignments. Only they have all the pieces of the puzzle and know how decisions are made... I don't think they share that, so we can only guess :-/

CaroLiza_fan · Sep 21, 2016

Here is the link for the Time Schedule:

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/jgpslo2016/jgpslo2016_JuniorLadies_SP_TimeSchedule.pdf

And for the Live Streaming (not on air yet):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhXmyNq-nys

Hope this helps

CaroLiza_fan

skatelikewind1966 · Sep 21, 2016

YesWay said:
You'd have to make some assumptions to make those particular probabilities different from any other combination of finishes, and close to zero.

What assumptions are you making?

Regardless, I suspect JSF takes account of more factors than we realise, when making assignments. Only they have all the pieces of the puzzle and know how decisions are made... I don't think they share that, so we can only guess :-/

I agree, I really enjoyed reading this thread so far but the only thing that comes to mind is "pure speculation" and no one loves the Monday morning quarterback more than me

Several really interesting theories but the only people who truly know what is being done and why it is being done is the decision makers of the JSF. With their recent success I would yield to them for future positioning of their skaters and strategy. Looking forward to seeing how it all plays out.

Amer · Sep 21, 2016

Lozko second to skate and Zagitova second to last :biggrin:

Crossover · Sep 21, 2016

2016 JGP Ljubljana Cup Ladies SP: TIME SCHEDULE

Thursday, 22 September, 2016 Starting at 14:15:00 (UTC + 2)

Starting Order

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/jgpslo2016/SEG003.HTM

StN.	Name	Nation
Warm-Up Group 1
1	Marusa UDRIH	SLO
2	Alisa LOZKO	RUS
3	Natalie SANGKAGALO	THA
4	Polina USTINKOVA	SUI
5	Anastasia GOZHVA	UKR
Warm-Up Group 2
6	Zhansaya ADYKHANOVA	KAZ
7	Anna LITVINENKO	GBR
8	Daniella Vanessa IPSARIDOU	CYP
9	Marin HONDA	JPN
10	Eunsoo LIM	KOR
11	Leona ROGIC	SRB
Warm-Up Group 3
12	Lucrezia GENNARO	ITA
13	Rika KIHIRA	JPN
14	Hana CVIJANOVIC	CRO
15	Elizabete JUBKANE	LAT
16	Josephine KAERSGAARD	DEN
17	Bronislava DOBIASOVA	SVK
Warm-Up Group 4
18	Lara GUCEK	SLO
19	Xin Yi LOKE	SIN
20	Joyce Selina CHAN	HKG
21	Liubov EFIMENKO	FIN
22	Haley YAO	TPE
23	Nina POLSAK	SLO
Warm-Up Group 5
24	Florencia LIN	ARG
25	Juni Marie BENJAMINSEN	NOR
26	Matilda ALGOTSSON	SWE
27	Daria JAKAB	HUN
28	Ashley LIN	USA
29	Alisa STOMAKHINA	AUT
Warm-Up Group 6
30	Alexandra FEIGIN	BUL
31	Sarah TAMURA	CAN
32	Lea Johanna DASTICH	GER
33	Gulzhan ZHUMADILOVA	KAZ
34	Alina ZAGITOVA	RUS
35	Michaela-Lucie HANZLIKOVA	CZE

gsyzf · Sep 21, 2016

YesWay said:
You'd have to make some assumptions to make those particular probabilities different from any other combination of finishes, and close to zero.

What assumptions are you making?

Regardless, I suspect JSF takes account of more factors than we realise, when making assignments. Only they have all the pieces of the puzzle and know how decisions are made... I don't think they share that, so we can only guess :-/

It's not assumption. It's math. If this scenario happens only by coincidence, i.e. assume it's entirely random, there are 6 skaters to be assigned to 3 events, then the probability of one particular skater being assigned to one particular event is 1/6=0.167. So the probability of the combination of 2 silver medalists assigned to the first event, 2 bronze medalists assigned to the 2nd event and 2 4th place finishers assigned to the 3rd event = (1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)=0.0001286=0.01286%, which is close to 0.

Everything is possible in theory, but not everything is probable in practice and real life. It's ok for fans to make decisions and strategies based on their wish. But it's unwise and irrational for fed officials to develop their strategies only based on their wish rather than the athletes' track records. The track records are hard facts and statistics.

YesWay · Sep 21, 2016

gsyzf said:
It's not assumption. It's math. If this scenario happens only by coincidence, i.e. assume it's entirely random, there are 6 skaters to be assigned to 3 events, then the probability of one particular skater being assigned to one particular event is 1/6=0.167. So the probability of the combination of 2 silver medalists assigned to the first event, 2 bronze medalists assigned to the 2nd event and 2 4th place finishers assigned to the 3rd event = (1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)=0.0001286=0.01286%, which is close to 0.

And how is that probability different to say, the probability of a silver medalist and a 4th place assigned to the first event, bronze and silver to the 2nd, bronze and 4th to the 3rd?

What makes your scenario so unlikely compared to any other scenario... that it must have been done by design, not random as assumed.

gsyzf · Sep 21, 2016

YesWay said:
And how is that probability different to say, the probability of a silver medalist and a 4th place assigned to the first event, bronze and silver to the 2nd, bronze and 4th to the 3rd?

What makes your scenario so unlikely compared to any other scenario... that it must have been done by design, not random as assumed.

I don't think a silver medalist and a 4th place assigned to the first event, bronze and silver to the 2nd, bronze and 4th to the 3rd is random either. It's all part of JSF's strategy.

--------
ETA: I just realized I probably misunderstood your comment. I hope I answer your question this time. The probability of two skaters with the same placements (e.g. both silver medalists) being assigned to the same event is lower than the probability of two skaters with different placements (e.g. 2nd and 3rd or 2nd and 4th) assigned to the same event. The probability 3 pairs of skaters with same placements assigned to 3 events is lower than the probability of skaters with different placements assigned to 3 events. It's not that this combination is much more unlikely than other combination so it's much more intentional than other combinations (they are all intentional, considering JSF is the one allocating the assignments), but this combination doesn't maximize Japanese skaters' chance to qualify for JGPF, thus makes the strategy look so weird because most people assume maximizing the number of Japanese skaters who have solid chance to qualify for JGPF would be the priority of the fed. If only two silver medalists are assigned to the same event, it's possible that there are some circumstances that prevent them from going to different events. But if 3 pairs of skaters with same placements are assigned to the same event, then JSF's intent to let these skaters compete against each other is proven to be stronger than its intent to let these skaters avoid competing against each other.

bosskil · Sep 21, 2016

gsyzf said:
It's not assumption. It's math. If this scenario happens only by coincidence, i.e. assume it's entirely random, there are 6 skaters to be assigned to 3 events, then the probability of one particular skater being assigned to one particular event is 1/6=0.167. So the probability of the combination of 2 silver medalists assigned to the first event, 2 bronze medalists assigned to the 2nd event and 2 4th place finishers assigned to the 3rd event = (1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)=0.0001286=0.01286%, which is close to 0.

Everything is possible in theory, but not everything is probable in practice and real life.

I agree.
You revealed the interesting pattern and it definitely looks intentional, kudos. :thumbsup:

It's ok for fans to make decisions and strategies based on their wish. But it's unwise and irrational for fed officials to develop their strategies only based on their wish rather than the athletes' track records. The track records are hard facts and statistics.

I disagree.
JSF's strategy in this particular case is exactly opposite: based on their wish rather than the athletes' track record.
Track record, hard facts and statistics would suggest to reward skaters with better track record (Honda, Kihira) for their achievements in their first events by spreading them and giving BOTH OF THEM chance to win second event and qualify. Instead, it rewards skaters with worse records after first event with that chance, which is clearly unfair.

For example, I suspect it's theoretically possible, that before last event in Germany, Yuna Shiraiwa may have her JGPF spot entirely in her hands - in opposite to Marin and Rika before Lyublyana, one of whom will be at the mercy of other skaters' outcomes in last two events.
So JSF assignments strategy, can theoretically result in situation, where skater with 4th place after first event would be in better position to advance than skater with 2nd place after first event(!).

It just makes no sense mathematically, strategically and from fairness standpoint.

bosskil · Sep 21, 2016

By the way, Eunsoo LIM whom I like the most of all Korean babies, in addition to making her debut at the most competitive JGP event of the year, drew the starting position right after reigning world champion... :palmf:

You go girl! :cheer2:

samkrut@mail.ru · Sep 21, 2016

gsyzf said:
It's not assumption. It's math. If this scenario happens only by coincidence, i.e. assume it's entirely random, there are 6 skaters to be assigned to 3 events, then the probability of one particular skater being assigned to one particular event is 1/6=0.167. So the probability of the combination of 2 silver medalists assigned to the first event, 2 bronze medalists assigned to the 2nd event and 2 4th place finishers assigned to the 3rd event = (1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)=0.0001286=0.01286%, which is close to 0.

Your concept is right but the math is wrong. The correct formula is 2*2*2/6! = 1/90 or about 1%

sunnystars · Sep 21, 2016

bosskil said:
By the way, Eunsoo LIM whom I like the most of all Korean babies, in addition to making her debut at the most competitive JGP event of the year, drew the starting position right after reigning world champion...
You go girl!

such great timing :palmf:

:eeking:

wishing everyone good luck!

skatelikewind1966 · Sep 21, 2016

At only 13 y.o. it will be a good test of how Lim handles her nerves, that's for sure! She'll have plenty of time to think about it in the locker room as well between her 6 minute warm-up and the time she performs (what a wonderful learning experience too). Having to get on the ice when Honda is exiting and then having to hear Honda's score may possibly rattle her but I for one am a big Lim fan and absolutely love how supportive and helpful Queen Yuna has been to the future skaters of Korea!

hippomoomin · Sep 21, 2016

I would guess Lim will hand her nerves just fine.

The media has not hyped her, so there is not much expectations from her. I believe she is not even considered Korean junior No. 1 (I am not saying someone else is.)
She is at her very first JGP, which is actually better than a second year or later in the season, since she is pretty much clueless about what's going to happy.

She competed against Marin Honda in August at Asian Trophy, and she actually beat Marin in the short. So to her, Marin is not exactly unbeatable.

As much I love EunSoo, I don't expect her to make to the JGPF this year.

skatelikewind1966 said:
At only 13 y.o. it will be a good test of how Lim handles her nerves, that's for sure! She'll have plenty of time to think about it in the locker room as well between her 6 minute warm-up and the time she performs (what a wonderful learning experience too). Having to get on the ice when Honda is exiting and then having to hear Honda's score may possibly rattle her but I for one am a big Lim fan and absolutely love how supportive and helpful Queen Yuna has been to the future skaters of Korea!

gsyzf · Sep 21, 2016

[email protected] said:
Your concept is right but the math is wrong. The correct formula is 2*2*2/6! = 1/90 or about 1%

Thank you. I didn't check my math properly.

kalee · Sep 21, 2016

hippomoomin said:
I would guess Lim will hand her nerves just fine.

The media has not hyped her, so there is not much expectations from her. I believe she is not even considered Korean junior No. 1 (I am not saying someone else is.)
\

Not sure that there's a clear Korean junior #1 currently actually -- rather, a continuum of skaters with the potential to hit 170+ points such as Choi Da Bin, Kim Na Hyun, and now followed by Ye Rim and Eun Soo. Speaking of which -- Na Hyun's improvement is startling as she was not competitive at all in last year's JGP season, but now is starting to post respectable scores as a senior.

2016 JGP Ljubljana Cup Ladies SP

kalee

gsyzf

kalee

gsyzf

YesWay

四年もかけて&#

CaroLiza_fan

EZETTIE LATUASV IVAKMHA

skatelikewind1966

Amer

Crossover

All Hail the Queen

gsyzf

YesWay

四年もかけて&#

gsyzf

bosskil

Match Penalty

bosskil

Match Penalty

[email protected]

Medalist

sunnystars

#teamotherskaters

skatelikewind1966

hippomoomin

gsyzf

kalee

Similar threads

Connect with us

2016 JGP Ljubljana Cup Ladies SP

&#22235;&#24180;&#12418;&#12363;&#12369;&#12390;&#

EZETTIE LATUASV IVAKMHA

All Hail the Queen

&#22235;&#24180;&#12418;&#12363;&#12369;&#12390;&#

Match Penalty

Match Penalty

Medalist

#teamotherskaters

Similar threads

四年もかけて&#

四年もかけて&#