Who is going to qualify for the GPF?

Ice Dance · Nov 8, 2016

Nathan13 said:
Hubbell/Donohue (2-3) or Gilles and Poirier (2-3)

If Hubbell & Donohue come 2nd at TEB, they will have 2-2.
If they come third at TEB behind Gilles & Poirier, G&P will remain ahead scorewise.
Essentially, there's very little chance of Hubbell & Donohue making the final with a 2-3. It likely will be a 2-2 or they're out.
(Though technically H&D could get a 2-3 berth if a team like Ilinykh & Zhiganshin finished ahead of them in France).

Of course, other teams will still have their say later in the series.

Weaver & Poje in China in particular.

Though Sinitsina & Katsalapov cannot be completely discounted as they have not competed yet. (They have a good shot at third in China; however, they would likely need at least a second place finish there to contend for a berth since their second event at NHK is stacked).

Tutto · Nov 9, 2016

Nathan13 said:
CoC is deep, but I still think Ashley has the advantage. Elena's jumps were extremely shaky today; I don't see Kaetlyn doing as well as she did in SC without the home audience and the home advantage (although a second or third could still get her to the final); Liza, even with the 3A, does not have a great FS. We'll see though, I would love to see ladies from USA, Canada, Russia and Japan in the GPF this year.

Liza is reported by Mishin down with flu but going to CoC anyway - might not be in a great shape, also they decided to return to her last season's LP.

I hope Kaetlyn will make it.

apgold · Nov 9, 2016

My predictions

Men

Fernandez
Uno (confirmed)
Chan
Hanyu
Brown
Chen

Ladies

Pogorilaya
Medvedeva
Miyahara
Wagner
Radionova
Osmond

Pairs

S/M
D/R
Y/Z
?
?
?

Dance

V/M
C/B (confirmed)
S/S
P/C
H/D
B/S (confirmed)

Jaana · Nov 9, 2016

Men
Uno (confirmed)
Fernandez
Hanyu
Chan
Jin
Chen

Hoping though that Bychenko will make it!

Skatergal101 · Nov 9, 2016

I hope Osmond makes the GPF! A Canadian lady in the final would be amazing!

Nathan13 · Nov 9, 2016

Tutto said:
Liza is reported by Mishin down with flu but going to CoC anyway - might not be in a great shape, also they decided to return to her last season's LP.

I hope Kaetlyn will make it.

CoC is still a week away, so hopefully she can recover by then. But that certainly opens the door for Kaetlyn and Elena--even if she has recovered, she may not have time to train for the 3A like she wants.

voolfee · Nov 9, 2016

Ladies:
1. Medvedeva
2. Pogorilaya
3. Wagner
4. Radionova
5. Miyahara
6. Sotskova or Osmond

Men:
1. Fernandes
2. Hanyu
3. Uno
4. Chan
5. Brown
6. Chen or Rippon

Pairs:
1. D/R
2. S/M
3. Y/Z
4. T/M
5. I/M
6. Z/E or S/B

Dance:
1. V/M
2. P/C
3. S/S
4. B/S
5. C/B
6. G/P

cathlen · Nov 9, 2016

If V/M has not returned, W/P would have been invited to Skate Canada as Canada number 1 team as it was for last two years (all other Canadian champions were there). And would have better chance to place second (I think they would lost to C/B anyway) mostly because I don't think G/P would be invited there then. But of course it's also possible they would place third after C/L, skating like they did at CoR. They could get a little PCS boost, but I think more so because of home ice, than just being number one team. W/P didn't compete at Challenger because they had changed SD last minute, it's hard to come blazing guns with a program that has literally one week. (not that they didn't make mistakes anyway sadly) So V/M return has meaning, but I think more because they took W/P place at Skate Canada than lower PCS. W/P is actually liked in Russia I think.

My types for GPF:

1) Men
Shoma Uno (already qualified)
Javier Fernandez
Patrick Chan
Yuzuru Hanyu
Nathan Chen
Jason Brown

2) Ladies
Ashley Wagner
Evgenia Medvedeva
Anna Pogorilaya
Satoko Miyahara
Elena Radionova
Either Sotskova or Osmond, really hard to tell. Especially since Sotskova hadn't skated yet.

3) Pairs
Savchenko/Massot
Duhamel/Radford
Yu/Zhang
Tarasova/Morozov
Zabijako/Enbert
Iliushechkina/Moscovitch
Also possible that due to circumstances many teams will get 22 points, and seguin/Bilodeau will qualify due to tie breaker instead of any last 3 teams.

4) Ice Dance
Bobrova/Soloviev (already qualified)
Virtue/Moir
Papadakis/Cizeron
Shibutanis
Chock/Bates
And I think we'll get 3 teams with 2 and 3 place: Hubell/Donohue, Gilles/Poirier and Weaver/Poje and it will come down to second or third tie breaker.

ice coverage · Nov 9, 2016

cathlen said:
... W/P didn't compete at Challenger because they had changed SD last minute, it's hard to come blazing guns with a program that has literally one week. (not that they didn't make mistakes anyway sadly) ....

But again, V/M are not responsible for the late change to W/P's SD.

I hope that W/P still will be able to qualify for the GPF.
But if they do not, it would be completely unfair to blame V/M.

cathlen · Nov 9, 2016

ice coverage said:
But again, V/M are not responsible for the late change to W/P's SD.

I hope that W/P still will be able to qualify for the GPF.
But if they do not, it would be completely unfair to blame V/M.

Of course! They're not to blame W/P made coach change, SD change or that they had lost quite some levels during CoR resulting in only third place. They're no to blame W/P did not get SC either. I'd rather blame Skate Canada for that kind politics, but not a team that only thing they're responsible is making decision of return, which is hardly a bad thing

Yuzunes · Nov 12, 2016

my prediction going to gpf
mens:
uno
fernandez
hanyu
chan
chen
boyang

ladies:
medvedeva
wagner
miyahara
radionova
pogorilaya
osmond

4everchan · Nov 12, 2016

cathlen said:
Of course! They're not to blame W/P made coach change, SD change or that they had lost quite some levels during CoR resulting in only third place. They're no to blame W/P did not get SC either. I'd rather blame Skate Canada for that kind politics, but not a team that only thing they're responsible is making decision of return, which is hardly a bad thing

ermmm... i think skate Canada also didn't know weapo would change coaches, training locations and Short Dance.... actually, they had slated Weapo with the "a" team (Patrick, Osmond, D/R) to compete in Finlandia... weapo withdrew.

I think Skate Canada was very smart not to assign weapo in Canada. It was making sense that they would want to have VM on their big return year at home. And, assigning weapo there would have been a tragedy for either team and for G/P....

So, on paper, Skate Canada played very wisely. In practice, nobody expected Weapo to not be ready for their SD in CoR.... or for B/S to win

On paper, nobody expected Piper/Paul making mistakes in the SD in TDF.... and now having to fight really hard if they want to qualify....

To remain on topic... I will offer some predictions of my own

Men
Uno (done)
Fernandez (one Lp away to be done)
Chan (should be 1st or 2nd in China with Skate Canada win, could even be 3rd and qualify)
Hanyu (expect him to win NHK where he skated his best last year so would qualify)
Chen (I think he will finish 2nd in both events and qualify)
Brown

Ladies
Medvedeva
Pogorilaya
Radionova
Wagner
Osmond (I predict a huge victory for Osmond in China)
Satoko

Dance

Two teams are qualified... P/C will qualify. V/M will qualify.

the last two teams... we will know after tomorrow's free dance... or close to know.

Pairs..

D/R S/M Y/Z

the free skate will decide the faith of T/M and Z/E hoping for a strong skate by J/C to push one of the Russian teams down to make it easier for S/B

Chemistry66 · Nov 12, 2016

Zabaiiko/Enbert just finished 4th in France, putting them at 22 points with 2nd+4th.

Seguin/Bilodeau's chances just increased since they have the placement tiebreaker!

Nathan13 · Nov 12, 2016

It looks like Hubbell and Donohue will join Chock and Bates and Bobrova and Solovjev at the GPF! The only way this would change is in the unlikely event that Weaver and Poje beat the Shibutanis and win CoC.

Sackie · Nov 12, 2016

At this point it looks like it has worked out great for USA Dance - they will have 3 teams in the GPF! Can't say it is a shock that this was arrang... ooops I mean that this just happened!

Nathan13 · Nov 12, 2016

Sackie said:
At this point it looks like it has worked out great for USA Dance - they will have 3 teams in the GPF! Can't say it is a shock that this was arrang... ooops I mean that this just happened!

Are you saying that the three American teams don't deserve to be in the GPF? Because they were all in the top 6 at World's last year, and its not like they aren't three of the absolute best in the world...

humbaba · Nov 12, 2016

Nathan13 said:
It looks like Hubbell and Donohue will join Chock and Bates and Bobrova and Solovjev at the GPF! The only way this would change is in the unlikely event that Weaver and Poje beat the Shibutanis and win CoC.

I think the Shibutanis will win CoC, but I don't believe it's a lock. Weaver/Poje winning in China would not be a shock to me.

Nathan13 · Nov 12, 2016

humbaba said:
I think the Shibutanis will win CoC, but I don't believe it's a lock. Weaver/Poje winning in China would not be a shock to me.

True, its not a guarantee. However, I think the Shibs will have to make a mistake for that to happen.

reneerose · Nov 12, 2016

Chemistry66 said:
Zabaiiko/Enbert just finished 4th in France, putting them at 22 points with 2nd+4th.

Seguin/Bilodeau's chances just increased since they have the placement tiebreaker!

If a pair were to withdraw would that further increase Seguin and Bilodeau's chances?

Not that I want anyone to withdraw due to injury....God forbid that!....but Aliona's ankle didn't look good after the LP today...I love her and Bruno a lot!...but I also had a thought cross my mind about if that would somehow help S/B?

eta · Nov 12, 2016

Now that 4/6 GPs are done...

Men
#1 Shoma qualified (28)
#2 Javi qualified (30)
#3 For CoC I think Chan and Boyang will be 1st and 2nd - either way Chan will qualify (30 or 28)
#4 Yuzu will likely win NHK and qualify (28)
#5 For NHK I think Brown and Chen will be 2nd and 3rd - either way Brown will qualify (26 or 24)

Assuimg #3 #4 #5 actually happen:
If Boyang wins CoC he will qualify (22, winning tiebreakers against other 22s)
If Boyang doesn't win CoC and Chen gets 2nd at NHK then he will qualify (22, winning tiebreakers against other 22s)

So my prediction: Shoma (confirmed), Javi (confirmed), Chan, Yuzu, Brown, Boyang

Ladies
I don't really follow the ladies much so my guess/hope: Medvedeva (confirmed), Radionova, Wagner, Satoko, Wakaba, Pogorilaya

Pairs
#1 S/M qualified (30)
#2 T/M qualified (24)
#3 Y/Z will likely win CoC (28)
#4 D/R will likely win NHK (30)
#5 A somewhat wild guess, but I think P/J will place 2nd at both CoC and NHK (26)
#6 S/B will qualify (22, winning tiebreakers against other 22s) if K/S does not win CoC and I/M are not at least 2nd at CoC - the latter definitely possible, I have no idea how P/J are doing and nobody seem to know how K/S are regarding injuries...

Dance
I don't follow dance at all, but I hope P/C and Shibs qualify~

Who is going to qualify for the GPF?

Ice Dance

Tutto

apgold

Jaana

Skatergal101

Nathan13

voolfee

cathlen

Team Gorgeous Cacti!

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605

cathlen

Team Gorgeous Cacti!

Yuzunes

4everchan

Chemistry66

Mmmmm, tacos.

Nathan13

Sackie

Nathan13

humbaba

Nathan13

reneerose

eta

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