I believe Hubbell & Donahue are officially in the GPF. Only Papadakis & Cizeron and Virtue & Moir have a high enough ranking from their previous competition to pass H&D's 26 points.
Who is going to qualify for the GPF?
- Thread starter theskatingbutterfly
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I believe Hubbell & Donahue are officially in the GPF. Only Papadakis & Cizeron and Virtue & Moir have a high enough ranking from their previous competition to pass H&D's 26 points.
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Yes this is correct. It is literally impossible for any team other than V/M and P/C to pass H/D at this point. The highest any other team could do is to win (15 points) (ahead of both V/M and P/C which is not doable anyway unless both teams die) and that would be added to their previous 4th place finish (9 points) for a total of 24 points, 2 less than the 26 H/D have.
Yes, he will. I think Jason's prospects look very good -- but this is also the men and ice is super slippery. Who would have thought Jin would finish 5th at SA anyway.
Nathan and Mikhail will need to finish 2nd to also beat Adam. Alexei will need to finish second or finish 3rd with like 270+ like total points.
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No. Ashley Wagner ranks above Tukt. They're tied in points, but as first tiebreaker, Ashley's gold beats Tukt's bronze. And Mai Mihara is ahead of Daleman in points.
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Satoko and Wakaba ideally needs 1st or 2nd. If they place 3rd, they need Maria to finish lower than 4th or for Pogo to bomb a la Wagner (6th or lower).
Or, Pogo could bomb a la Pogo at NHK last year ... 9th.
Not likely, and I don't wish it on her; she and Julia are my favorite Russian ladies.I just saw from Wiki that Pogo won CoC back in 2013. Incidentally, Aliona and Robin also won the event that year, while Bruno and Daria came dead last.
what a difference 3 years and a partner make.
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Based on racked up points and raw scores, I think the Dance teams who will qualify, assuming there will be 10, will be:
1 PAPADAKIS/CIZERON - FRA
2 VIRTUE/MOIR - CAN
3 SHIBUTANI/SHIBUTANI - USA
4 CHOCK/BATES - USA
5 BOBROVA/SOLOVIEV - RUS
6 CAPPELLINI/LANOTTE - ITA
7 WEAVER/POJE - CAN
8 GILLES/POIRIER CAN
9 HUBBELL/DONOHUE - USA
10 STEPANOVA/BUKIN - RUS
1 PAPADAKIS/CIZERON - FRA
2 VIRTUE/MOIR - CAN
3 SHIBUTANI/SHIBUTANI - USA
4 CHOCK/BATES - USA
5 BOBROVA/SOLOVIEV - RUS
6 CAPPELLINI/LANOTTE - ITA
7 WEAVER/POJE - CAN
8 GILLES/POIRIER CAN
9 HUBBELL/DONOHUE - USA
10 STEPANOVA/BUKIN - RUS
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Qualify for what? Only 6 teams are allowed in the GPF, and Hubbell and Donohue are already in because they got 26. Although a 10-entry GPF would really do my heart good--so much less stress.
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I already posted the top 6 teams who will qualify
P/C
V/M
S/S
C/B
B/S
H/D
The rest don't even have a prayer
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"Hubbell and Donohue are already in because they got 26." But there are other things to factor in _ the raw score which serves also as a tie-breaker. Anyway, I think last year there were 10 teams who competed in the GRF. I just looked at last year's GPF, there was only 6 teams who competed in that discipline.
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Nope, just six teams:
http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat00028335.htm
A tiebreaker only occurs if there's a tie. Which other dance teams at NHK other than P/C & V/M could get to 26 points?
The first tie-breaker only matters if there is a tie among the points earned via placements. The second tie-breaker only matters if there is a tie via placement points and a tie on the first tie-breaker. The third tie-breaker only matters if there is a tie via placement points, the first tie-breaker, and the second tie-breaker.
Hubbell & Donahue had a second in their first event. Gilles & Poirier had a third. H&D needed to finish second at TDF ahead of G&P to make the final. H&D did not need to defeat G&P's overall score. They only needed to defeat G&P's placement (plus, stay ahead of Ilynikh & Zhiganshin and hope Weaver & Poje did not win Cup of China). G&P needed to finish at least second at TDF ahead of H&D to have a shot at the final. Both teams knew that going into the competition. There was a lot of pressure going into the event for them, and it probably played a role in why both teams had such sloppy SDs there.
Six teams always qualify for the GPF. There was a strange exception to that rule last year due to the cancellation of the free skates at TEB last season following the terrorist attacks in Paris. So there was a possibility of seven qualifiers last season. (It didn't happen in dance). But there will be only six qualifiers in every discipline as normal this season.
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- Nov 13, 2012
As others have pointed out, the tie breaks only start coming in to play if there is a tie in how many points a team has earned from their GP placements. At this point, we're down to one GP event left in the series and there are literally only two teams, P/C and V/M, who are coming into the event with enough points from their first one to surpass H/D's 26 points.
These are the current standing for ice dance. http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2016/gpsdance.pdf As you can see, H/D are #4 on the qualification list right now. The general assumption is that P/C and V/M will finish 1 and 2 in some order, giving them more points than H/D, but H/D will not be pushed out of the final for this. Say something crazy happens though and a team that is not V/M or P/C wins. C/L and S/K both had 4th place finishes in their first events and have 9 points. For a win here, either team would get 15 points to go with their 9. 9+15 is 24. That's not enough points to overtake H/D for GPF qualification. K/S from Poland come in with 7 points from their 5th place at CoC. L/L-G from France and H/B come in with 5 points for their 6th place finishes earlier in the season. No one else in the NHK field comes in with any qualification points. Yes, P/C and V/M will likely pass H/D by on points, but it won't knock them out, and it's mathematically impossible for any of the other teams in the NHK field to pass H/D. That means H/D are definitely in the GPF.
These are the current standing for ice dance. http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2016/gpsdance.pdf As you can see, H/D are #4 on the qualification list right now. The general assumption is that P/C and V/M will finish 1 and 2 in some order, giving them more points than H/D, but H/D will not be pushed out of the final for this. Say something crazy happens though and a team that is not V/M or P/C wins. C/L and S/K both had 4th place finishes in their first events and have 9 points. For a win here, either team would get 15 points to go with their 9. 9+15 is 24. That's not enough points to overtake H/D for GPF qualification. K/S from Poland come in with 7 points from their 5th place at CoC. L/L-G from France and H/B come in with 5 points for their 6th place finishes earlier in the season. No one else in the NHK field comes in with any qualification points. Yes, P/C and V/M will likely pass H/D by on points, but it won't knock them out, and it's mathematically impossible for any of the other teams in the NHK field to pass H/D. That means H/D are definitely in the GPF.
Here is Jackie Wong's analysis of who can make it into the final. As discussed up thread, Adam is in if Yuzu and Jason are gold/silver (or reverse). All the math makes my head hurt, so leaving it up to others to analyze the scenarios.
http://www.rockerskating.com/news/2016/11/20/on-the-bubble-analyzing-grand-prix-final-chances
http://www.rockerskating.com/news/2016/11/20/on-the-bubble-analyzing-grand-prix-final-chances
Nathan has got to be feeling the heat, because whoever gets into the GPF is going to have a much easier time getting on the World team in January.
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Yeah. I am thinking that if two USA men go to the GPF they will be the world team unless someone else manages to win US Nationals.
I do not think it will be that simple unless the Nationals results align. Nathan already has a Challenger win, defeated Chan, and broke the National record in the short. It would be very tough for a committee to overlook him. As would overlooking the reigning national champion or the Skate America silver medalist. Maybe if one of them medals at the GPF, but I expect a competition at Nationals.
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The reigning Skate America champion is Shoma Uno, so they'll probably overlook him. Jason has beat Adam at every outing this year, so I think he is in a great position going into Nationals.
