2016 NHK Trophy Discussion on Predictions

4everchan · Nov 23, 2016

we have seen a couple judges (tech panel) applying the rules strictly this year... that never happened much before... I have a feeling that perhaps it's not as simple as who is behind the computer but maybe could it be about ISU directives to the judging panels? "please make sure we watch for complete rotation, we do not want any problem like in sochi so let's get the skaters properly evaluated and judged now... " or something like that... Amano was a judge before... wasn't he? Why would he be suddenly so strict? I never heard of him before as being a carrot cultivator.

I think it's great that the ladies are getting this kind of feedback now. It could lead to overall improvement of skating in general. As long as the treatment is fair, I have no issues with carrots being given out like candy.

Krunchii · Nov 23, 2016

eta said:
So who are the strict ones again? I only recall CoC Ladies (Shin AMANO) and SC Ladies (Michael HOPFES).

I guess Sally Rehorick could count, she did the Worlds 2014 Ladies. I find that she tends to be nice in the SP and then super strict for the LP. She did the Autumn Classic Ladies this season and I found the same pattern, nice SP, strict LP.

eta · Nov 23, 2016

I wonder if ladies generally UR more than men, or is the tech panel more strict with ladies this season?

moriel · Nov 24, 2016

eta said:
I wonder if ladies generally UR more than men, or is the tech panel more strict with ladies this season?

Not sure, but i think there is also the quad thing - the guys UR less triples (as many of them do quads, i suppose they have less troubles doing triples than ladies), and quads get some more forgiveness for the simple fact of being done.

eta · Nov 24, 2016

moriel said:
Not sure, but i think there is also the quad thing - the guys UR less triples (as many of them do quads, i suppose they have less troubles doing triples than ladies), and quads get some more forgiveness for the simple fact of being done.

Which is wrong... not only more forgiveness regarding UR at times, but also more leniency for +GOE for some. Doubt it will be fixed, sadly.

Winnie_20 · Nov 24, 2016

eta said:
Referee Ms. Susan LYNCH
Technical Controller Mr. Jeroen PRINS
Technical Specialist Mr. Gilberto VIADANA
Assistant Technical Specialist Ms. Ikuko ISHIKAWA

Wow. Good for him! He was also at skate Canada.
When he is not at the skating events, he is one of the Dutch commentators on Eurosport.

MaiKatze · Nov 24, 2016

Winnie_20 said:
Wow. Good for him! He was also at skate Canada.
When he is not at the skating events, he is one of the Dutch commentators on Eurosport.

Interesting. Did he show any preferences? I wouldn't like to call it bias...but it's interesting. I think one also has to add the human factor. Even judges like what they like. But he's not a judge either way.

NoNameFace · Nov 24, 2016

generally - for me top 5 in Ladies and Men here is a nightmare to predict...In Ladies anyone among Satoko, Anna, Maria and Wakaba can get away with gold and top 4 could be in any particular order consisted of those 4 Ladies, in Men I do think that Yuzuru will get this, however some spoils are not excluded...More trouble is for me how to list Jason vs Nathan and them Mikhail vs Alexei...

so many question marks :drama:

:hopelessness:

Winnie_20 · Nov 24, 2016

MaiKatze said:
Interesting. Did he show any preferences? I wouldn't like to call it bias...but it's interesting. I think one also has to add the human factor. Even judges like what they like. But he's not a judge either way.

Not that I know of. In general, I tend to feel like Dutch commentators are overly enthusiastic about the very very few Belgian and Dutch skaters, but that's probably fair enough (if you are not enthusiastic, you probably lose half of your viewers, at least the ones who only care about national skaters).
I would guess he is very good at what he does if they invite him for two senior GPs. :agree:

Marin · Nov 24, 2016

so the Tech Specialist for ladies is Gilberto Viadana, Italian former skater. Since he retired he has worked in the US mostly and he's been the director of the Olympic Training Center in Lake Placid, now he works in Elmsford, New York.
Long story short, I'm sensing cookies for everybody. This won't benefit Wakaba but candies for everyone

Us fed chose wrong GP for Wagner

Sam-Skwantch · Nov 24, 2016

I still think Satoko will get dinged with UR again as has been the trend for all skaters known to have issues this season so I put her in second instead of first on my predictions. I like Wakababy and Masha but I went with Masha. Both have good jumps with Wakababy getting the nod there but I think overall Masha is a bit more versed in overall performance at this point.

1-Anna
2-Satoko
3-Masha

I really hope Anna leaves the slip and slide falls to our memories but I'm always afraid for those spectacular splat filled programs. I still picked her to win but I think the pressure could get to her and blow my whole podium up. Oh well....I suck at this game and my pairs and ice dance are based on name recognition alone since I've not been paying attention this season.

Major props to those who picked Nathan Chen to win. I actually left him off of the podium

** We should start a tech panel predictions game where we guess which skaters they will give calls too and which ones they won't. :drama:

samkrut@mail.ru · Nov 24, 2016

Sam-Skwantch said:
2016 NHK Trophy Discussion on Predictions

I decided to not open a parallel thread but rather merge it with this one - hope, the OP won't mind:
2016 NHK Trophy Prediction on Discussions

I predict in ladies discussions will be:

Satoko: One faction: her jumps are still very small and URed, if she scores high - the tech panel was too lenient because it was in Japan, if she scores low - finally, the tech guys are doing their job. The other faction: she is gorgeous and artistic. If she scores high - the judging was adequate but her pcs are still lower than Ashley's and especially Medvedeva's which is unfair. If she scores low: all sorts of conspiracy theories.

Anna: One faction:If she scores high - Anna is outstanding and has made a significant improvement. Tsareva became a lovely woman now that there's also a handsome man by her side. Wish her good luck in GPF and the rest of the season. If she scores low: NHK is a killer for her may be jet lag is too taxing. Should relax and be ready for the rest of the season. The other faction: If she scores high. Anna's skating is still rough although she somewhat improved. She is the winner but the score is ridiculous because either some of (then goes the list of who were "lowballed") should not be that lower than her or some legends from the past who btw were superior skaters to her received similar and even smaller scores. But she is still way bettter than Medvedeva and hopefully will outthrone her. If she scores low: Anna proved that stability and herself do not come together.

Maria: One faction: she is gorgeous and is getting better with every skate. The other faction: she is boring, her program is meh, I fell asleep.

So much for predictions. I will stick to those and will meticulously calculate how often these things will be seen in the discussions to come.

EdgeCall · Nov 24, 2016

[email protected] said:
I decided to not open a parallel thread but rather merge it with this one - hope, the OP won't mind:
2016 NHK Trophy Prediction on Discussions

I predict in ladies discussions will be:

Satoko: One faction: her jumps are still very small and URed, if she scores high - the tech panel was too lenient because it was in Japan, if she scores low - finally, the tech guys are doing their job. The other faction: she is gorgeous and artistic. If she scores high - the judging was adequate but her pcs are still lower than Ashley's and especially Medvedeva's which is unfair. If she scores low: all sorts of conspiracy theories.

Anna: One faction:If she scores high - Anna is outstanding and has made a significant improvement. Tsareva became a lovely woman now that there's also a handsome man by her side. Wish her good luck in GPF and the rest of the season. If she scores low: NHK is a killer for her may be jet lag is too taxing. Should relax and be ready for the rest of the season. The other faction: If she scores high. Anna's skating is still rough although she somewhat improved. She is the winner but the score is ridiculous because either some of (then goes the list of who were "lowballed") should not be that lower than her or some legends from the past who btw were superior skaters to her received similar and even smaller scores. But she is still way bettter than Medvedeva and hopefully will outthrone her. If she scores low: Anna proved that stability and herself do not come together.

Maria: One faction: she is gorgeous and is getting better with every skate. The other faction: she is boring, her program is meh, I fell asleep.

So much for predictions. I will stick to those and will meticulously calculate how often these things will be seen in the discussions to come.

Thank you, this post would save us at least a third of the discussions to come, which the forum will insist on having anyway, I'm afraid. But maybe the ladies will come up with a special surprise for us to talk about ...

silverfoxes · Nov 24, 2016

[email protected] said:
Anna: One faction:If she scores high - Anna is outstanding and has made a significant improvement. Tsareva became a lovely woman now that there's also a handsome man by her side. Wish her good luck in GPF and the rest of the season. If she scores low: NHK is a killer for her may be jet lag is too taxing. Should relax and be ready for the rest of the season. The other faction: If she scores high. Anna's skating is still rough although she somewhat improved. She is the winner but the score is ridiculous because either some of (then goes the list of who were "lowballed") should not be that lower than her or some legends from the past who btw were superior skaters to her received similar and even smaller scores. But she is still way bettter than Medvedeva and hopefully will outthrone her. If she scores low: Anna proved that stability and herself do not come together.

Well done...you covered almost everything

I also predict that if/when Tsareva smiles, there will be a bunch of comments expressing amazement that she is smiling "for the first time," even though it's really not that rare & has been caught by cameras on several occasions.

Puchi · Nov 24, 2016

[email protected] said:
Entire post

This is a nice summary of the last 20 pages of the ladies FS thread :agree:

chuckm · Nov 24, 2016

Ice Dance Tech Team

Tech Controller Michela CESARO ITA
Tech Spec Andrzej DOSTATNI POL
Asst Tech Spec Galit CHAIT MORACCI ISR

TGee · Nov 24, 2016

silverfoxes said:
Well done...you covered almost everything I also predict that if/when Tsareva smiles, there will be a bunch of comments expressing amazement that she is smiling "for the first time," even though it's really not that rare & has been caught by cameras on several occasions.

One last addition: If Alaine Chartrand pulls out an amazing skate in both the SP and FS, as she can do, and especially if she scores well and achieves the podium [which she has done], one group will be saying lovely things about her speed, great big jumps, great step sequence and innovative and well centred spins, and expressing hope that this is the marker of improvement in consistency. The other group will say that whatever PCS she has was too high because she hasn't "earned it" with consistency, her free foot really must have brushed the ice as it passed through for the landing but we've just got the wrong camera angle, and it's not "her turn".

And for those of you who haven't seen it, here's a training gif that her dad posted earlier this week of what looks like a new jump entry for NHK. ...she's determined to be a contender, but I will expect great controversy if NHK adds to the evidence that all three Canadian women are on the rise.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BNCLxM4gzao/

4everchan · Nov 24, 2016

TGee said:
One last addition: If Alaine Chartrand pulls out an amazing skate in both the SP and FS, as she can do, and especially if she scores well and achieves the podium [which she has done], one group will be saying lovely things about her speed, great big jumps, great step sequence and innovative and well centred spins, and expressing hope that this is the marker of improvement in consistency. The other group will say that whatever PCS she has was too high because she hasn't "earned it" with consistency, her free foot really must have brushed the ice as it passed through for the landing but we've just got the wrong camera angle, and it's not "her turn".

And for those of you who haven't seen it, here's a training gif that her dad posted earlier this week of what looks like a new jump entry for NHK. ...she's determined to be a contender, but I will expect great controversy if NHK adds to the evidence that all three Canadian women are on the rise.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BNCLxM4gzao/

moriel · Nov 25, 2016

And now the cool part where you compare SP scores with predictions.

NoNameFace · Nov 25, 2016

moriel said:
And now the cool part where you compare SP scores with predictions.

and then weep over your actual predictions posted...

2016 NHK Trophy Discussion on Predictions

4everchan

Krunchii

eta

moriel

eta

Winnie_20

MaiKatze

NoNameFace

GS given name - Beatrice

Winnie_20

Marin

"Efforts tell lies, but it will not be in vain."

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”

[email protected]

Medalist

EdgeCall

silverfoxes

Puchi

chuckm

TGee

4everchan

moriel

NoNameFace

GS given name - Beatrice

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