2016 NHK Trophy Data Analysis - Men

Thank you so much. This is such good reference material for the discussions going on right now on Golden Skate.:thumbsup:

Yes, Ms. Geek on Ice. Thank you for your awesome analysis. I used to do this stuff, but I have a kid and much less time. Plus you do it much more pretty than I ever did!

I am taking comfort that Jason had the highest spins and steps! Glad that was back in the FS even if the jumps were MIA.

On PCS, there has been consternation about Nathan's high PCS and I agree that 84 seems a mighty high number for a program that seems to lack cohesion, choreography and intent in various places. But considering the dismal showings of the other men (outside of Yuzu and Keiji) last night, maybe the judges were relieved that Nathan had done something semi-okay, not a complete disaster. I may be over simplifying things, but that's what came to mind.

Thank you so much, Interspectator and Mrs. P! :luv17:

Mrs. P said:

I am taking comfort that Jason had the highest spins and steps! Glad that was back in the FS even if the jumps were MIA.

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I KNOW!! Actually, one of my intentions for doing this analysis is to see positive outlook on things like that too! :yes2:
(Originally I started doing this for my man, MURA! )

As much as I enjoy reading/joining people discussing about judging issues and I can't deny that I do question the current judging system, I also want people to remember that these data can be used for positive and constructive ways too. (Like, "Oh, he improved so much on steps!", "Hmm. He needs to work more on spins and transitions.", "Wow, he's actually got better marks on IN more than I thought!" etc.)


Ooooooops! I really need to get ready now, I just have too much fun here at GS that I don't want to leave!! :luv17:

p.s. I can't believe I will be missing Dance FD in live... :sad4:

Interspectator said:

On PCS, there has been consternation about Nathan's high PCS and I agree that 84 seems a mighty high number for a program that seems to lack cohesion, choreography and intent in various places. But considering the dismal showings of the other men (outside of Yuzu and Keiji) last night, maybe the judges were relieved that Nathan had done something semi-okay, not a complete disaster. I may be over simplifying things, but that's what came to mind.

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I guess all I'll say is that before his injury last year, Jason's PCS was averaging 83-85. There's been some inflation since then and it's hard to compare competitions, but I don't think Nathan's presentation today was anywhere in the ballpark of where Jason's was last year. So however dismal the rest of the competition, I do think Nathan's PCS was too high.

Note I'm not arguing that Jason's PCS should have been higher here.

Tavi... said:

I guess all I'll say is that before his injury last year, Jason's PCS was averaging 83-85. There's been some inflation since then and it's hard to compare competitions, but I don't think Nathan's presentation today was anywhere in the ballpark of where Jason's was last year. So however dismal the rest of the competition, I do think Nathan's PCS was too high.

Note I'm not arguing that Jason's PCS should have been higher here.

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Yes, It's too high. I'd put Nathan's PCS at around 80-82 at most for the FS. It was just me thinking about why the number would be so high.

Interspectator said:

Yes, It's too high. I'd put Nathan's PCS at around 80-82 at most for the FS. It was just me thinking about why the number would be so high.

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Because judges wanted to help Nathan qualify for gpf after Jason failed to qualify for gpf. I think it's like a trade between usfsa and jsf. USFSA "let/helped" Shoma win SA to qualify for gpf, then JSF needs to help an American skater at NHK to qualify for gpf in return.

Honestly, Nathan's PCS is a combination of the growing PCS inflation and a favorable start order. And let's face it, executing big jumps still can provide a bit of a boost as well.

As I said it's a tad high, but not worth a ton of outrage.

Also looking at the PCS categories, what put Nathan over Jason was the SS and PE categories. They were close in the other categories, with Jason getting an edge in transitions and Nathan in composition. They were tied in interpretation.

Mrs. P said:

Honestly, Nathan's PCS is a combination of the growing PCS inflation and a favorable start order. And let's face it, executing big jumps still can provide a bit of a boost as well.

As I said it's a tad high, but not worth a ton of outrage.

Also looking at the PCS categories, what put Nathan over Jason was the SS and PE categories. They were close in the other categories, with Jason getting an edge in transitions and Nathan in composition. They were tied in interpretation.

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I think Jason got lower PCS because he skated early and he placed low in the SP. I think Nathan's PCS maybe only 2-3 points too high, not outrageously high. NHK is the last GP and the final placements will determine the GPF qualifiers. Japan has been one of the most loyal allies of USA and JSF has long term partnership with USFSA for many years. JSF very often send their most promising junior skaters or top skaters to SA and USFSA also sends their most favorite skaters to NHK. So JSF's favorites will get generous judging in SA (e.g. Shoma) and USFSA's favorite will also get more generous judging in NHK. I think the judges at NHK showed some generosity and wanted to help Nathan qualify for GPF. These feds don't want to send their most promising skaters, or skaters who they see with most potential to qualify for GPF to a GP event hosted by their enemies, thus get harsh judging and have a lower chance to qualify for GPF. (Enemy is an exaggeration, but some countries have their own skaters they want to boost and foreign skaters are more harshly judged in those GPs.)

Mrs. P said:

As I said it's a tad high, but not worth a ton of outrage.

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Yes and no. No, in the sense that his placement was correct here and the over-scoring meant nothing. Yes, in the sense that it still remains on his records, and slowly, a reputation is being built where he is starting to get higher and higher PCS, regardless of the fact that he isn't actually earning them which will cause two things. One, he will stop trying to actually earn them and two, when we have situations where Boyang is defeated by 1.18 and is on record as being low-balled, relative to others, in PCS, what happens when Chen and Boyang go head to head and Nathan wins over him by those few points?