2016-17 GPF Mens FS

Khoai said:

Do you have any idea you sound very funny and a bit stupid?

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No. Based on the rules, the judging and past olympic results, I think that's perfectly normal and necessary. Did any man successfully defend his olympic title by doing an easy program? (Plushenko couldn't defend his titles when he did 2 quads while his rival did no quads.) Otherwise, Hanyu himself wouldn't plan to attempt the most difficulty program in order to defend his title in 2018. Do you think Hanyu is stupid to even plan to do that? Nobody takes blind risk or unnecessary risk just to torture their body and make so many mistakes and thus bomb their programs. If he is planning it, it means he feels it's absolutely necessary to do so in order to win.

gsyzf said:

No. Based on the rules, the judging and past olympic results, I think that's perfectly normal and necessary. Did any man successfully defend his olympic title by doing an easy program? (Plushenko couldn't defend his titles when he did 2 quads while his rival did no quads.) Otherwise, Hanyu himself wouldn't try to attempt the most difficulty program in order to defend his title in 2018. Do you think Hanyu is stupid to even plan to do that? Nobody takes blind risk or unnecessary risk just to torture their body and make so many mistakes just to bomb their programs. If he is planning it, it means he feels it's absolutely necessary to do so in order to win.

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Do you have any idea how much nonsense you sound? Mr. YesWay was right to ignore you.

Khoai said:

Do you have any idea how much nonsense you sound? Mr. YesWay was right to ignore you.

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I still don't understand what the non-sense is. Given the level of competitions today, the rules and the judging and past olympic results, what other conclusion can you get? Did Plushenko and Kim successfully defend their titles by doing easy programs?

The fact that Hanyu actually plans to do the most difficult program means it's not non-sense.

gsyzf said:

I still don't understand what the non-sense is. Given the level of competitions today, the rules and the judging and past olympic results, what other conclusion can you get? Did Plushenko and Kim successfully defend their titles by doing easy programs?

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It's none sense to talk about that. This is not the cold war when you try to create more and more nuclear weapons. You will never come to an end. ISU does want money and they're controlled by various political groups with conflicts of interest. But at the end of the day, whoever do best in both performances will be chosen to win. It is just that simple.

Khoai said:

It's none sense to talk about that. This is not the cold war when you try to create more and more nuclear weapons. You will never come to an end. ISU does want money and they're controlled by various political groups with conflicts of interest. But at the end of the day, whoever do best in both performances will be chosen to win. It is just that simple.

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But it has also happened many times in the past, that when more than one persons do their best in both performances, there will be someone who will not win. You can't give gold to more than one skaters. Based on past results, judges have shown that they favor non-OGM to win. E.g. Plushenko and Kim. They were the favorites to win the 2nd olympics. Do you want to perform your best and end up losing or do you want to bet on the chance that you will be the only person who performs well in both performances at the olympics?

ETA: It already happened to hanyu that he was the only person that did well one program in Sochi olympics. What is the odds of that happening again that he will be the only person that does well in the next Olympics

Khoai said:

When Jason Brown was still the darling of USFA, North American fans: "The top man only put transitions in without any meaning to the music. Their programs are nothing, just jump battle."
When Nathan Chen suddenly become USFA's darling while he peaks MID season (yes, mid season, and he might break at 4CC and WC), North American fans: "Quads mean everything!!"
I love North American fans. They have such short memories. And since when GPF become this important? Didn't Mr. Chan said it somewhere something like who cares about GPF.
Any of these skaters might flop at WC 2017, or if they won't flop there, it will be later next season. Don't get too much ahead of yourself. Remember quads break your bodies. You will never know.

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Until Chen moves me like Jason or Adam quads still mean nothing to me whether he wins or lose. When Chan or Hanyu does them with such ease along with their amazing skating and programs....I'm in. Now I do like Chen but he's not there for me yet. I've gotten to the point that winning doesn't mean that much to me anymore in skating...it's a judgey sport.

gsyzf said:

But it has also happened many times in the past, that when more than one persons do their best in both performances, there will be someone who will not win. You can't give gold to more than one skaters. Based on past results, judges have shown that they favor non-OGM to win. E.g. Plushenko and Kim. They were the favorites to win the 2nd olympics. Do you want to perform your best and end up losing or do you want to bet on the chance that you will be the only person who performs well in both performances at the olympics?

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You truly believe in those none-sense?

Khoai said:

You truly believe in those none-sense?

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Does Hanyu believe in this "nonsense"? Why do you think he is trying to up his tech?

ETA: I still don't understand why you think it's nonsense. You have to base your belief on something that actually happened in the past, not just what you think will happen.

You might think it's non-sense. But that's something that really happened in the past, and it happened more than once. So you have to treat it as something that has high likelihood to happen again.

If it's something that never happened, then it sounds like nonsense. But it's something that happened multiple times in the past, then it's real possibility, and the possibility is high.

gsyzf said:

Do you think Hanyu is stupid to even plan to do that? Nobody takes blind risk or unnecessary risk just to torture their body and make so many mistakes and thus bomb their programs. If he is planning it, it means he feels it's absolutely necessary to do so in order to win.

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:agree:

..Yuzu is known to be so good at math

giulia95 said:

+1

I feel like I'm very funny and a bit stupid too

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Well if Hanyu delivers the most difficult program ever (like, 2+4 clean quads, level 4 spins and step sequences, the most difficult transitions, choreography, the best interpretation and performance, etc) which will be 'much more difficult than the rivals' programs', then he won't have just chance to win the Olympics but he will win by some 30+ (10+ in the short, ca 20+ in the free) margin, believe me.

sallycinnamon said:

Well if Hanyu delivers the most difficult program ever (like, 2+4 clean quads, level 4 spins and step sequences, the most difficult transitions, choreography, the best interpretation and performance, etc) which will be 'much more difficult than the rivals' programs', then he won't have just chance to win the Olympics but he will win by some 30+ (10+ in the short, ca 20+ in the free) margin, believe me.

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It depends on if it's 4 different quads or 4 quads with only 3 types of quads.

We can do some calculation for all the possible layouts: (These are just estimates.) The only skaters who are capable of doing 4 quads with 4 different quads are Chen, Hanyu and Jin.

Chen's SP: 4lz, 4f, BV=52+ Chen's LP: 5 quads with 4 different quads and 1 axel, BV=108+
Hanyu's SP: 4lo, 4s, BV=49+ Hanyu's LP: 4 quads with 4 different quads and 2 axel, BV=108+
Hanyu's LP: 4 quads with 3 different quads and 2 axel, BV=103+
Fernandez's SP: 4t, 4s, BV=47-48 Fernandez's LP: 3 quads with 2 different quads and 2 axel, BV=95-96
Fernandez's LP: 3 quads with 3 different quads and 2 axel, BV=101
Uno's SP: 4t, 4F, BV=49+ Uno's LP: 3 quads with 2 different quads and 2 axel, BV=95-96
Uno's LP: 3 quads with 3 different quads and 2 axel, BV=101

Jin's SP: 4lz, 4t, BV=41+ Jin's LP: 4 quads with 4 different quads and 2 axel, BV=108+
Jin's LP: 4 quads with 3 different quads and 2 axel, BV=103+

Chan's SP: 4t, BV=43 Chan's LP: 3 quads with 2 different quads and 2 axel, BV=95-96
Chan's SP: 4t, 4s BV=47-48 Chan's LP: 3 quads with 3 different quads and 2 axel, BV=101

Right now, The GOEs are Hanyu, Fernandez and Chan get similar GOE and PCS. The difference is just a fraction. Uno gets similar GOE and slightly lower PCS. Chen gets slightly lower GOE and about 8 points lower PCS in the LP. If he maintains his momentum, he will get similar GOE and the PCS gap will be smaller, maybe 4-5 points by the time of the Olympics. (Yulia only got 4 points lower PCS in the LP than Mao did in 2014 WC in Japan and she only got 4 points lower PCS in the LP than the medalists in Sochi olympics.) They all get similar goes by the time of the Olympics if they are seen as medal contenders.

If Fernandez, Chan and Hanyu are all clean, Hanyu's only advantage is BV. He has about 8-9 points BV advantage over Chan and Fernandez (if they go for their hardest layout). That will actually just be his winning margin. He won't win with 30+ margin. If Hanyu only does 4 quad with 3 different quads layout, he will only get 2-3 points BV advantage. 2-3 points advantage can vanish if he skates early. (Plushenko skated early in Vancouver and his 4-5 points BV advantage in the SP just disappeared.) So it's very possible he won't win even when he skates well if he only does 4 quads with 3 types of quads. If Chen skates clean and Hanyu does 4 quads with 3 types of quads, Hanyu has 8-9 points BV disadvantage and Chen has 8-9 points PCS disadvantage. So it will just even out. It's quite possible Hanyu won't win either even if he skates well.

If hanyu only does 4 quads with 3 types of quads, his bv is only 2 points higher than those who try 3 quads with 3 types of quads. Uno gets similar goe and only slightly lower pcs as hanyu. So he can score around the same as hanyu's score when both are clean. If uno skates later than hanyu, he may score higher than hanyu. Jin can also outscore hanyu if his bv advantage is enough to close the pcs gap. If hanyu only does 4 quads with 3 types of quads, And any one of Jin, Chan, Fernandez, uno or chen skates clean, he can outscore hanyu.

I guess I should say it this way, Hanyu needs to deliver the most difficult program ever (4 different quads +2 axels) to have a realistic chance to win the next olympics without relying on his rivals' mistakes.

gsyzf said:

If Fernandez, Chan and Hanyu are all clean

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gsyzf said:

It depends on if it's 4 different quads or 4 quads with only 3 types of quads.

We can do some calculation for all the possible layouts: (These are just estimates.) The only skaters who are capable of doing 4 quads with 4 different quads are Chen, Hanyu and Jin.

Chen's SP: 4lz, 4f, BV=52+ Chen's LP: 5 quads with 4 different quads and 1 axel, BV=108+
Hanyu's SP: 4lo, 4s, BV=49+ Hanyu's LP: 4 quads with 4 different quads and 2 axel, BV=108+
Hanyu's LP: 4 quads with 3 different quads and 2 axel, BV=103+
Fernandez's SP: 4t, 4s, BV=47-48 Fernandez's LP: 3 quads with 2 different quads and 2 axel, BV=95-96
Fernandez's LP: 3 quads with 3 different quads and 2 axel, BV=101
Uno's SP: 4t, 4F, BV=49+ Uno's LP: 3 quads with 2 different quads and 2 axel, BV=95-96
Uno's LP: 3 quads with 3 different quads and 2 axel, BV=101

Jin's SP: 4lz, 4t, BV=41+ Jin's LP: 4 quads with 4 different quads and 2 axel, BV=108+
Jin's LP: 4 quads with 3 different quads and 2 axel, BV=103+

Chan's SP: 4t, BV=43 Chan's LP: 3 quads with 2 different quads and 2 axel, BV=95-96
Chan's SP: 4t, 4s BV=47-48 Chan's LP: 3 quads with 3 different quads and 2 axel, BV=101

Right now, The GOEs are Hanyu, Fernandez and Chan get similar GOE and PCS. The difference is just a fraction. Uno gets similar GOE and slightly lower PCS. Chen gets slightly lower GOE and about 8 points lower PCS in the LP. If he maintains his momentum, he will get similar GOE and the PCS gap will be smaller, maybe 4-5 points by the time of the Olympics. (Yulia only got 4 points lower PCS in the LP than Mao did in 2014 WC in Japan and she only got 4 points lower PCS in the LP than the medalists in Sochi olympics.) They all get similar goes by the time of the Olympics if they are seen as medal contenders.

If Fernandez, Chan and Hanyu are all clean, Hanyu's only advantage is BV. He has about 8-9 points BV advantage over Chan and Fernandez (if they go for their hardest layout). That will actually just be his winning margin. He won't win with 30+ margin. If Hanyu only does 4 quad with 3 different quads layout, he will only get 2-3 points BV advantage. 2-3 points advantage can vanish if he skates early. (Plushenko skated early in Vancouver and his 4-5 points BV advantage in the SP just disappeared.) So it's very possible he won't win even when he skates well if he only does 4 quads with 3 types of quads. If Chen skates clean and Hanyu does 4 quads with 3 types of quads, Hanyu has 8-9 points BV disadvantage and Chen has 8-9 points PCS disadvantage. So it will just even out. It's quite possible Hanyu won't win either even if he skates well.

If hanyu only does 4 quads with 3 types of quads, his bv is only 2 points higher than those who try 3 quads with 3 types of quads. Uno gets similar goe and only slightly lower pcs as hanyu. So he can score around the same as hanyu's score when both are clean. If uno skates later than hanyu, he may score higher than hanyu. Jin can also outscore hanyu if his bv advantage is enough to close the pcs gap. If hanyu only does 4 quads with 3 types of quads, And any one of Jin, Chan, Fernandez, uno or chen skates clean, he can outscore hanyu.

I guess I should say it this way, Hanyu needs to deliver the most difficult program ever (4 different quads +2 axels) to have a realistic chance to win the next olympics without relying on his rivals' mistakes.

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This is pure math and the results are incredibly tough , then there's real life which is even harder . Yuzu learned a golden lesson in Boston 2016 , hopefully he treasured it.

Ice Dance said:

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This is just pure math. If you have no goe +pcs advantage over others like Fernandez and Chan, then you need to have clear bv advantage (not just 1-2 points but at least 4-5 points advantage) to secure your win. Because when everyone has similar bv and have similar potential goe and pcs, if they all perform well, whoever skates later gets the highest score.

If you have some goe and pcs advantage over younger skaters like chen, Jin and uno, then your bv can't be much lower than their planned bv if you want to secure your win because their bv advantage maybe enough to overcome the goe and pcs disadvantage (e.g if your overall bv is 8-9 points lower, then it's very possible the younger skater will outscore you when he skates clean. Hanyu's bv was 8-9 points higher than chan's in Sochi and that's how he beat Chan in Sochi.)

Either way, you need high bv if not the highest bv, at least very close to the highest bv, to secure your win.

The odds of everyone skating clean isn't high. But When you face half a dozen rivals, at least one of them delivering is high.

gsyzf said:

We can do some calculation for all the possible layouts: (These are just estimates.) The only skaters who are capable of doing 4 quads with 4 different quads are Chen, Hanyu and Jin.

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Predicting stuff on facts pulled out of your a $$, again?

Perhaps you could wait with all that pointless math until Hanyu and Jin actually even try 4 different quads in competition?

Moria Polonius said:

Predicting stuff on facts pulled out of your a $$, again?

Perhaps you could wait with all that pointless math until Hanyu and Jin actually even try 4 different quads in competition?

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Both Hanyu and Jin have been practicing 4th type of quads in training. They have both expressed the possibility of doing 4 types of quads in competitions. I listed two sets of BV, one for the current layout and one for layouts with 4 types of quads. You can wait till someone actually attempts 4 types of quads in competitions before you start planning your layout. But that would be too late because you will have less time to practice the new layouts. If you want to get ahead of others, it's better for you to plan ahead, watch what your rivals are doing and adjust your layout given what your rivals are doing or plan to do. Besides, someone has already been attempting 4 types of quads in competitions. At least one skater's BV is already there. So the analysis isn't based on nothing. I'm only estimating all the possible layouts, and analyzing what certain skaters need to do if they want to win given the competitions they face. These skaters do the math themselves because they are also aware of their rivals' plan and technical abilities.

gsyzf said:

Both Hanyu and Jin have been practicing 4th type of quads in training. They have both expressed the possibility of doing 4 types of quads in competitions. I listed two sets of BV, one for the current layout and one for layouts with 4 types of quads. You can wait till someone actually attempts 4 types of quads in competitions before you start planning your layout. But that would be too late because you will have less time to practice the new layouts. If you want to get ahead of others, it's better for you to plan ahead, watch what your rivals are doing and adjust your layout given what your rivals are doing or plan to do. Besides, someone has already been attempting 4 types of quads in competitions. At least one skater's BV is already there. So the analysis isn't based on nothing. I'm only estimating all the possible layouts, and analyzing what certain skaters need to do if they want to win given the competitions they face. These skaters do the math themselves because they are also aware of their rivals' plan and technical abilities.

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:agree:

layout is like a strategy in a battle, probably the most important plan to decide, plus you need to picture what will happen to your rivals in the next season , so difficult so fascinating ... I'm glad Yuzu's father is a math teacher