2017 Worlds Men pre-event thread

Dlqp95 · Mar 5, 2017

Though I may be biased, I think it will be either Hanyu (this lil' boy still hasn't done his best so let's hope :yes2

or Javier (he's still awesome and I believe, just like Hanyu, that still got a lot to show us) so my bets are going to them. Chen seems like a strong competitor so I wouldn't forget him :think: and there is also Patrick (dear lord I like him but not his excuses). The one I'm not sure is Uno, though great, I don't know, he doesn't give me this feeling of consistency :confused2:.

Kelly · Mar 5, 2017

I hope Nathan will have a clean FS (no negative GOE) that has same jump layout as his FS planned at 4CC besides a clean short program.

da96103 · Mar 5, 2017

While waiting for the Workds, MOHIR has been doing a spot of reading. He is reading A Moveable Feast by Ernest Hemingway.

Predict how many of the 25 quads in the expected final group in FS will MOHIR eat in its Moveable Feast, and also which quads.

Nathan: Lz, F, S, T, T
Boyang: Lz, Lo, S, T, T
Shoma: F, Lo, S, T, T
Yuzuru: Lo, S, S, T
Javier: S, S, T
Patrick: S, T, T

Lz - 2
F - 2
Lo - 3
S - 8
T - 10

sheetz · Mar 5, 2017

Is Boyang really going to attempt 4Lo? He did much better at AWG without it but still didn't skate clean. And I don't know about Shoma, either. I get the sense that his successful 4Lo at 4CC was probably a fluke. Let's see how he does at Coupe du Printemps.

HanDomi · Mar 5, 2017

I bet you can add one more 4T for Hanyu. I am sure he will attempt 5 quads in free

Yatagarasu · Mar 5, 2017

HanDomi said:
I bet you can add one more 4T for Hanyu. I am sure he will attempt 5 quads in free

No way. Five quads in the free means either bringing out the 4Lz which is too risky as it's a brand new jump (unless I guess he is chasing post the SP) or dumping one of the 3As, something he has said he won't do. So he'll stick to four plus why wouldn't he. He's still all right with that number, provided he can go clean.

HanDomi · Mar 5, 2017

Yatagarasu said:
No way. Five quads in the free means either bringing out the 4Lz which is too risky as it's a brand new jump (unless I guess he is chasing post the SP) or dumping one of the 3As, something he has said he won't do. So he'll stick to four plus why wouldn't he. He's still all right with that number, provided he can go clean.

yes, 4 is enough, but he he wants to land 5 now fur sure and if he will confident he will do it

Yatagarasu · Mar 5, 2017

HanDomi said:
yes, 4 is enough, but he he wants to land 5 now fur sure and if he will confident he will do it

He said, outright, he will keep the two 3As. So currently, it is either introduce the 4Lz, a brand new jump, at Worlds, or lose one of the 3As. And the 3As, in combination as he does them, in the second half of the program are worth plenty. It's highly unlikely we'll see a 5 quad scenario from him.

Li'Kitsu · Mar 5, 2017

Regarding Yuzu and the 5 quads - yes, the point is Yuzu himself sad he will definitely keep the 3As. I'm not sure why the idea of 2 4Ss + 2 4Ts is even a thing, tbh. If we see 2 4Ts, then he'll exchange one of the 4Ss for it, but it's very unlikely. IF we are going to see 5 quads from him at any point, it will include a 4Lz.
And yes, he said he wants to try 5 quads after 4CCs, but I'm sure he also wants to really try the 4Lz and 4A, and (thankfully) we haven't seen him go around and just throw them out without rhyme or reason at any point either.

As for the other layouts: I would not yet say Boyang and Shoma are going to do 5 quads each. Shoma said he will try the 4S at his next comp, but this doesn't mean they plan it for WC no matter what. If it isn't successful, I'd think they'll go back to the 4CC layout. And Boyang went back to 4 quads for AWG, and given how he had trouble with his 5 quad LP at 4CC, I'd say his layout is a question mark too. I know the quads are exciting, but please remember these guys do have normal human hips and knees.

blackey · Mar 5, 2017

HanDomi said:
I bet you can add one more 4T for Hanyu. I am sure he will attempt 5 quads in free

i don't think so. if you wanna repeat both 4t and 4s, then you can't repeat 3a anymore. that doesn't sound like a good deal for yuzu.

blackey · Mar 5, 2017

Li'Kitsu said:
If it isn't successful, I'd think they'll go back to the 4CC layout. And Boyang went back to 4 quads for AWG, and given how he had trouble with his 5 quad LP at 4CC, I'd say his layout is a question mark too..

neither boyang or shoma skate clean at 4cc. they can't skate clean with their "safe" layout, that's why they're adding more, so they are allowed to make mistake while still being competitive. Besides, I think everyone is aiming at next year, even if they can skate clean with their "safe" layout, they are still gonna risk themselves for better preparing next year.

Li'Kitsu · Mar 5, 2017

blackey said:
neither boyang or shoma skate clean at 4cc. they can't skate clean with their "safe" layout, that's why they're adding more, so they are allowed to make mistake while still being competitive. Besides, I think everyone is aiming at next year, even if they can skate clean with their "safe" layout, they are still gonna risk themselves for better preparing next year.

At other competitions maybe, but at the WC? I really doubt it. Regarding Shoma, I don't doubt he will keep his riskier 4CC layout, I just don't think it's set in stone yet he'll add a 5th quad (I'd wait for his next competition for that). Boyang actually did better at AWG with 4 quads than at 4CC with 5. If you have a higher BV but it causes you to make significantly more mistakes, you can come out with a lower score over all still. 'Not clean' and 'not clean' can still be very different in how many mistakes somebody made.

karne · Mar 5, 2017

Let's see, a totally clean SP will probably be about 84-85? I wonder if he'll try and upgrade it before Worlds or leave it as is.

Then the FS - with two quads and otherwise clean, probably mid 150s...if he lands the third quad, maybe he could push 160, and then he could be looking at a mid 240s total, that would start to mix things up a bit. Yes, I am sure it will be so. And then I can rage about his PCS.

Fly high, Brendan, and show everyone what you've got!

LRK · Mar 6, 2017

da96103 said:
While waiting for the Workds, MOHIR has been doing a spot of reading. He is reading A Moveable Feast by Ernest Hemingway.

Predict how many of the 25 quads in the expected final group in FS will MOHIR eat in its Moveable Feast, and also which quads.

Nathan: Lz, F, S, T, T
Boyang: Lz, Lo, S, T, T
Shoma: F, Lo, S, T, T
Yuzuru: Lo, S, S, T
Javier: S, S, T
Patrick: S, T, T

Lz - 2
F - 2
Lo - 3
S - 8
T - 10

But what about the 3As? Suppose GRIM told MOHIR about how much tastier they are?

Dear MOHIR,
forget the quads - just snack on one or so if you're feeling really peckish, but really, they are just blah. The 3As, though, are delicious - yum yum!
Yours truly, in friendship,
GRIM

Something like that.

narcissa · Mar 6, 2017

narcissa said:
I predict 100 pages before the start of the event.

only 4 pages so far....my prediction is falling quite short...

TontoK · Mar 6, 2017

narcissa said:
only 4 pages so far....my prediction is falling quite short...

I think we've about exhausted the subject, failing some news on injury, jump layouts, etc.

I'm ready for the competition. Tiring of the same talking points, over and over.

da96103 · Mar 7, 2017

LRK said:
But what about the 3As? Suppose GRIM told MOHIR about how much tastier they are?

Dear MOHIR,
forget the quads - just snack on one or so if you're feeling really peckish, but really, they are just blah. The 3As, though, are delicious - yum yum!
Yours truly, in friendship,
GRIM

Something like that.

Yes, GRIM was quite happy to have not one but two rare Shoma 3A's but quite upset with only one quad meal from Patrick in the final group.

This is what MOHIR is expecting.
Patrick: 50% chance of a quad meal.
Javier: 50% chance of a quad meal.
Boyang: 50% chance of a quad meal.
Shoma: 50% chance of a quad meal.
Yuzuru: 25% chance of a quad meal.
Nathan: 5% chance of a quad meal.

75% chance of getting wobbling gravy from all skaters.

xeyra · Mar 7, 2017

da96103 said:
75% chance of getting wobbling gravy from all skaters.

I will never be able to read/hear this word again with a straight face after AWG.

LRK · Mar 7, 2017

xeyra said:
I will never be able to read/hear this word again with a straight face after AWG.

Why? What happened there? (Curious)

LRK · Mar 7, 2017

narcissa said:
only 4 pages so far....my prediction is falling quite short...

Give it time - it still is enough far off that people haven't got "stuck in" yet. It will come.

2017 Worlds Men pre-event thread

Dlqp95

Kelly

da96103

sheetz

HanDomi

Yatagarasu

HanDomi

Yatagarasu

Li'Kitsu

blackey

blackey

Li'Kitsu

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode

LRK

narcissa

TontoK

Hot Tonto

da96103

xeyra

Constant state

LRK

LRK

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