2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

skylark · Dec 7, 2017

sinnerspinner said:
Also, if everything is based on rep, mirai had more than polina at that time. They couldve chosen nagasu, gold, and wagner. Coorect me if im wrong, but edmunds did not have much of a senior track record at that time.

After the fact, they may have wished they'd sent Mirai over Polina, who knows ... and there were suggestions that that would have made more sense, at the time; but it was too late; the Olympic team had already been named.

Quick google search said michelle kwan was also passed over for olympics after winning silver at nationals...(im double checking this someone correct if wrong!)

I'd say the wording "passed over" is wrong, but not the fact. It was 1994, the USA had 2 ladies' spots for the Olympics. Nancy Kerrigan was expected to win nationals, but her knee got bashed in by conspirators ... you know the story, I assume. Nancy couldn't compete at nationals, Tonya Harding won, and Michelle Kwan won silver. Nancy's injury healed in time for her to compete at the Olympics; she received the bye she had applied for. Tanya also went.

Michelle was actually there, ready to sub if necessary ... if Nancy's knee acted up, or if Tonya didn't have an extra pair of shoelaces :rofl:

.... the rest is history.

college pat · Dec 7, 2017

this is a bit off topic of the current U.S. Ladies

What is the William E. Simon award? Michelle just posted on her instagram account about winning it.

Anyway congratulations. to her.

as far as the current U.S. ladies, I hope they all skate well at nationals.

sinnerspinner · Dec 7, 2017

skylark said:
After the fact, they may have wished they'd sent Mirai over Polina, who knows ... and there were suggestions that that would have made more sense, at the time; but it was too late; the Olympic team had already been named.

I'd say the wording "passed over" is wrong, but not the fact. It was 1994, the USA had 2 ladies' spots for the Olympics. Nancy Kerrigan was expected to win nationals, but her knee got bashed in by conspirators ... you know the story, I assume. Nancy couldn't compete at nationals, Tonya Harding won, and Michelle Kwan won silver. Nancy's injury healed in time for her to compete at the Olympics; she received the bye she had applied for. Tanya also went.

Michelle was actually there, ready to sub if necessary ... if Nancy's knee acted up, or if Tonya didn't have an extra pair of shoelaces .... the rest is history.

Yes, i did see that Kerrigan replaced kwan after the attack
Kwan was nominated to torino after an injury
Todd eldredge was nominated to olympics after an injury
Meno and sand withdrew from nationals but competed at nagano, injury related

None of these cases are like what happened to Mirai.

andromache · Dec 7, 2017

skylark said:
After the fact, they may have wished they'd sent Mirai over Polina, who knows ... and there were suggestions that that would have made more sense, at the time; but it was too late; the Olympic team had already been named.

Mirai had more "rep" in the sense that she had an enthusiastic fanbase and a handful of Grand Prix medals, but she hadn't been able to make a World team since 2010. She was also coachless.

Polina had a pretty impressive JGP season, which I think is unfairly overlooked when we look back at 2014 decision. She made the JGPF (and there she beat Evgenia Medvedeva in the LP portion of the competition - not really relevant to this discussion, but just shows how times change and skaters develop differently). We can see from the careers of Elena Radionova, Evgenia, Marin, and Alina that international junior competitions have a major impact on one's reputation when moving up to teh senior level.

There would've been way less backlash if Polina stayed home and Ashley and Mirai went to the Olympics, but I think Mirai would've placed lower than Polina did. The only reason for less backlash would be because Polina didn't have a fanbase at the time, and still kind of doesn't.

(I guess if it had been up to me, I would've sent Polina to the Olympics and Junior Worlds and sent Mirai to Senior Worlds. Would've been interesting to see how Polina stacked up against her peers in that context.)

Moxiejan · Dec 7, 2017

sinnerspinner said:
Also, if everything is based on rep, mirai had more than polina at that time. They couldve chosen nagasu, gold, and wagner. Coorect me if im wrong, but edmunds did not have much of a senior track record at that time.

The "rep" that Mirai had leading up to 2014 was that of a skater who had just performed poorly at both 2013 Grand Prix events, and also had not performed well in Senior Bs or at the previous Nationals. Though Polina was new to seniors, she had performed very well in the international junior events that are part of the selection criteria. Though it often is stated that Ashley replaced Mirai, the fact remains that USFS never announced the picking order. It very well could have been that when considering the Top 5 finishers at Nationals (as per the rules), Gracie & Ashley were named to the team immediately and then the third spot required a decision from among Polina, Mirai and Samantha. I think Courtney (6th) also was in the mix as an alternate.

sinnerspinner said:
Quick google search said michelle kwan was also passed over for olympics after winning silver at nationals...(im double checking this someone correct if wrong!)

Michelle was not "passed over"; she was named the first alternate because one of the two spots was being held for Nancy Kerrigan & the other was being held for the "winner," Tonya Harding. Michelle even was sent to train near the Olympic Village in case Nancy was unable to skate or USFS won its bid to remove Tonya from the team. Neither happened, so Michelle remained an alternate.

Moxiejan · Dec 7, 2017

sinnerspinner said:
There was once years ago when a male skater made third. They sent todd eldredge who had injury to the olympics instead. I saw the fluff piece. Guy was devastated. The skaters name escaped me. So that makes 2x.

It was Mark Mitchell, who today is a fine coach (Ross Miner; Emmy Ma) in the Boston area.

Gullygirl84 · Dec 7, 2017

Moxiejan said:
The "rep" that Mirai had leading up to 2014 was that of a skater who had just performed poorly at both 2013 Grand Prix events, and also had not performed well in Senior Bs or at the previous Nationals. Though Polina was new to seniors, she had performed very well in the international junior events that are part of the selection criteria. Though it often is stated that Ashley replaced Mirai, the fact remains that USFS never announced the picking order. It very well could have been that when considering the Top 5 finishers at Nationals (as per the rules), Gracie & Ashley were named to the team immediately and then the third spot required a decision from among Polina, Mirai and Samantha. I think Courtney (6th) also was in the mix as an alternate.

Michelle was not "passed over"; she was named the first alternate because one of the two spots was being held for Nancy Kerrigan & the other was being held for the "winner," Tonya Harding. Michelle even was sent to train near the Olympic Village in case Nancy was unable to skate or USFS won its bid to remove Tonya from the team. Neither happened, so Michelle remained an alternate.

I don't disagree with the Olympic team selection in 2014, but Mirai had a bronze from the 2013 Rostelecom Cup, so I don't think you can say that she did poorly at both grand prix events that season. Not a high score, but scores weren't as inflated back then either. I agree that Polina making the junior grand prix final probably counted a lot towards her rep.

R.D. · Dec 7, 2017

drivingmissdaisy said:
I agree. The conflict of interest RD mentioned could be problematic in a close decision, but I don't think it was a close decision in 2014. I agree with RD that the optics are bad and, if Ashley makes the team without a podium finish this year, people will cry foul over these conflicts.

People cried foul last time, too, despite “it not being close”.

Like I said earlier, it matters not if the decision is justified on athletic merit - only that on the surface, a decision was made that was not clearly explained to the layperson.

Sponsors and TV had a lot invested in Wagner at the time. Those were the circumstances. I am not saying she shouldn’t have been picked - by all indications, it was the right decision - but, can’t deny she had corporate backing - and perhaps pull (we’ll never know).

Curious to see how this situation will be handled now...

sinnerspinner · Dec 7, 2017

Moxiejan said:
The "rep" that Mirai had leading up to 2014 was that of a skater who had just performed poorly at both 2013 Grand Prix events, and also had not performed well in Senior Bs or at the previous Nationals. Though Polina was new to seniors, she had performed very well in the international junior events that are part of the selection criteria. Though it often is stated that Ashley replaced Mirai, the fact remains that USFS never announced the picking order. It very well could have been that when considering the Top 5 finishers at Nationals (as per the rules), Gracie & Ashley were named to the team immediately and then the third spot required a decision from among Polina, Mirai and Samantha. I think Courtney (6th) also was in the mix as an alternate.

Michelle was not "passed over"; she was named the first alternate because one of the two spots was being held for Nancy Kerrigan & the other was being held for the "winner," Tonya Harding. Michelle even was sent to train near the Olympic Village in case Nancy was unable to skate or USFS won its bid to remove Tonya from the team. Neither happened, so Michelle remained an alternate.

Please see my previous post. I wrote that instancrs like this other than mirai were injury related.

skylark · Dec 7, 2017

frida80 said:
It's hard to explain , but the music and program can really affect your technique. With the right songs I get this huge surge of energy and confidence. I just go into the zone. It's not how everyone is motivated, but it's does happen to people. Ashley knew she needed to change her program in 2014, because she knew she couldn't connect with the music or the character. Contrast that with MR. Now that she's done that several times she needs a fresher program to motivate her. It's just how she learns and best perform.

Beautifully stated. :clap:

andromache · Dec 7, 2017

Gullygirl84 said:
I don't disagree with the Olympic team selection in 2014, but Mirai had a bronze from the 2013 Rostelecom Cup, so I don't think you can say that she did poorly at both grand prix events that season. Not a high score, but scores weren't as inflated back then either. I agree that Polina making the junior grand prix final probably counted a lot towards her rep.

Mirai had a clean, though technically easy SP. 3T-3T, 3Lo, and 2A and a level 1 spin. Sloppy LP. Looking at the protocol, her bronze was worth about as much as Ashley's Skate Canada bronze is from this year (i.e., not much). The field at Rostelecom was weak and no one skated well.

Ashley is going into this year's Nationals with not too different of a body of work than Mirai was in 2014 - with the most impressive results being ancient history, at least insofar as the skating world goes. The major difference is that, well, 2014 US ladies had more results than the 2018 US ladies. Mirai in 2014 was going up against a JGPF finalist, a much hyped and clearly on-the-rise Gracie Gold, and two-time US champ + two-time GPF medalist. Ashley's competition in 2018....looks a lot weaker.

skylark · Dec 7, 2017

sinnerspinner said:
Yes, i did see that Kerrigan replaced kwan after the attack
.

Not quite. Kwan was always the alternate.

On the upside, her coach Frank Carroll said that she had a great time at that Olympics, enjoyed the experience.

skylark · Dec 7, 2017

andromache said:
Mirai had more "rep" in the sense that she had an enthusiastic fanbase and a handful of Grand Prix medals, but she hadn't been able to make a World team since 2010. She was also coachless.

Polina had a pretty impressive JGP season, which I think is unfairly overlooked when we look back at 2014 decision. She made the JGPF (and there she beat Evgenia Medvedeva in the LP portion of the competition - not really relevant to this discussion, but just shows how times change and skaters develop differently). We can see from the careers of Elena Radionova, Evgenia, Marin, and Alina that international junior competitions have a major impact on one's reputation when moving up to teh senior level.

There would've been way less backlash if Polina stayed home and Ashley and Mirai went to the Olympics, but I think Mirai would've placed lower than Polina did. The only reason for less backlash would be because Polina didn't have a fanbase at the time, and still kind of doesn't.

(I guess if it had been up to me, I would've sent Polina to the Olympics and Junior Worlds and sent Mirai to Senior Worlds. Would've been interesting to see how Polina stacked up against her peers in that context.)

You're right. And thanks for that history lesson about juniors. That was interesting.

Gullygirl84 · Dec 7, 2017

andromache said:
Mirai had a clean, though technically easy SP. 3T-3T, 3Lo, and 2A and a level 1 spin. Sloppy LP. Looking at the protocol, her bronze was worth about as much as Ashley's Skate Canada bronze is from this year (i.e., not much). The field at Rostelecom was weak and no one skated well.

Ashley is going into this year's Nationals with not too different of a body of work than Mirai was in 2014 - with the most impressive results being ancient history, at least insofar as the skating world goes. The major difference is that, well, 2014 US ladies had more results than the 2018 US ladies. Mirai in 2014 was going up against a JGPF finalist, a much hyped and clearly on-the-rise Gracie Gold, and two-time US champ + two-time GPF medalist. Ashley's competition in 2018....looks a lot weaker.

I don't disagree with your assessment of Mirai's bronze and wasn't trying to make it worth more than it was, but it was still the third highest international score after Ashley and Gracie before nationals, including Polina's jr grand prix results (with the field at Rostelecom including Satoko, Liza, Kanako, and Agnes. Liza had some injury issues and Satoko was newly senior, but I've seen weaker fields). In retrospect, lots of people probably thought that Polina was the future and had more olympics in her after 2014, but I think her case demonstrates that the younger ones shouldn't be held back because they might not get another chance. Polina never scored higher than she did internationally that year at worlds.

Eeyora · Dec 7, 2017

I thought I was the only one who would have sent Mirai instead of Polina. I still think Ashley earned it in 2014 fair and square.

concorde · Dec 7, 2017

Eeyora said:
I thought I was the only one who would have sent Mirai instead of Polina. I still think Ashley earned it in 2014 fair and square.

I always assumed that Ashley and Gracie were givens. The debate was between Polina and Moral. And for both of them, I could see 6 for and a half dozen against. I would have loved to be a fly on the wall during the selection committee meeting.

frida80 · Dec 7, 2017

andromache said:
Mirai had a clean, though technically easy SP. 3T-3T, 3Lo, and 2A and a level 1 spin. Sloppy LP. Looking at the protocol, her bronze was worth about as much as Ashley's Skate Canada bronze is from this year (i.e., not much). The field at Rostelecom was weak and no one skated well.

Ashley is going into this year's Nationals with not too different of a body of work than Mirai was in 2014 - with the most impressive results being ancient history, at least insofar as the skating world goes. The major difference is that, well, 2014 US ladies had more results than the 2018 US ladies. Mirai in 2014 was going up against a JGPF finalist, a much hyped and clearly on-the-rise Gracie Gold, and two-time US champ + two-time GPF medalist. Ashley's competition in 2018....looks a lot weaker.

What you call poor, I call average for that quad. A FS score of 114 between 2010 and 2013 could get you a medal easily. If you look at the results you can see that Julia only scored 4 points higher than her in the FS. Plus Ashley only scored a 119 at the GPF and still got a bronze. Everyone was far less consistent, with greater amounts of falls, edge calls, and underrotations Now, ladies are kicking butt left and right. You won’t get on a podium unless your very clean and have high components. It’s like comparing apples and oranges.

LRK · Dec 7, 2017

frida80 said:
What you call poor, I call average for that quad. A FS score of 114 between 2010 and 2013 could get you a medal easily. If you look at the results you can see that Julia only scored 4 points higher than her in the FS. Plus Ashley only scored a 119 at the GPF and still got a bronze. Everyone was far less consistent, with greater amounts of falls, edge calls, and underrotations Now, ladies are kicking butt left and right. You won’t get on a podium unless your very clean and have high components. It’s like comparing apples and oranges.

Wasn't a score in the 120s a pretty big deal in those (far away bygone

) days? The scores have gone up considerably in the last years.

drivingmissdaisy · Dec 7, 2017

As was the case in 2014, I think the BoW now would only be used to put an especially deserving athlete on the team (i.e. Nathan) and not be used to choose between the 3rd and 4th place finishers with mediocre season records. This season Karen, Mirai, and Courtney all have Senior B medals, Ashley and Bradie have GP bronze medals. Mirai and Karen have good results from last season but have not skated as well in any event in almost a year. If you factor in good and bad results, no one has a BoW worthy of an Olympic berth.

Gullygirl84 · Dec 7, 2017

drivingmissdaisy said:
As was the case in 2014, I think the BoW now would only be used to put an especially deserving athlete on the team (i.e. Nathan) and not be used to choose between the 3rd and 4th place finishers with mediocre season records. This season Karen, Mirai, and Courtney all have Senior B medals, Ashley and Bradie have GP bronze medals. Mirai and Karen have good results from last season but have not skated as well in any event in almost a year. If you factor in good and bad results, no one has a BoW worthy of an Olympic berth.

Yet, Mirai's bronze from 4CC last year was about equal to her score at NHK this season. I do agree that no one has an outstanding body of work this season and that they will go with the top three at nationals. I also think that the team pick and nationals results will be uncontroversial and that all of this message board discussion is because we have too much time on our hands.

2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

skylark

Gazing at a Glorious Great Lakes sunset

college pat

sinnerspinner

andromache

Moxiejan

Moxiejan

Gullygirl84

R.D.

sinnerspinner

skylark

Gazing at a Glorious Great Lakes sunset

andromache

skylark

Gazing at a Glorious Great Lakes sunset

skylark

Gazing at a Glorious Great Lakes sunset

Gullygirl84

Eeyora

concorde

frida80

LRK

drivingmissdaisy

Gullygirl84

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