2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

TontoK · Jan 22, 2018

We will see, but Mark Mitchell made a point in his TSL interview... yeah, I know the deal with TSL, but the interview was interesting.

Anyway, Mark pointed out that in all the instances that USFSA has appointed someone to the Olympic team who had not qualified on the basis of performance at US Nationals... all of those cases combined resulted in exactly one medal. Nancy Kerrigan.

So, even with medal favorites, the history says... if you don't perform well (or at all, in the case of illness/injury) at US Nationals, you won't deliver in the Olympics.

Tavi... · Jan 22, 2018

TontoK said:
It's not a time I enjoy.

I can't say I don't like the men's team we're sending, because I do- but I don't necessarily like the way it was achieved.

The body of work thing misses a key component - and that is momentum. A skater on the rise, someone who has gotten their act together when it means the most - could be at a disadvantage to a skater on a downward trajectory.

And to be really blunt: Why is Adam's non-medal more deserving than Ross's non-medal? The only possible explanation I can think of is that they thought Adam would be a more reliable back-up to Nathan in the team event.

I’m not so sure it does miss momentum. There are two ways to look at a performance like Ross’s at Nationals: (1) as the beginning of an upswing; or (2) a fluke. You’re assuming that it was the beginning of an upswing. It appears that USFS took the other view. Whether that’s right or wrong or fair is not for me to say. But if you look at his competition history, you can guess why they might have taken the decision they did.

I listened to Mark Mitchell and I thought his point was interesting. But since we don’t know exactly what the selection criteria was in the past, it’s hard to say whether history will repeat itself. And that’s pretty much the point, isn’t it? In either case (history of success of top 3 versus criteria, or Ross’s past competition history versus his 2018 medal at Nats) you’re trying to gauge the future by looking at the past. Neither way is sure, but I’m sure the committee did its best.

TontoK · Jan 22, 2018

Tavi... said:
I’m not so sure it does miss momentum. There are two ways to look at a performance like Ross’s at Nationals: (1) as the beginning of an upswing; or (2) a fluke. You’re assuming that it was the beginning of an upswing. It appears that USFS took the other view. Whether that’s right or wrong or fair is not for me to say. But if you look at his competition history, you can guess why they might have taken the decision they did.

I listened to Mark Mitchell and I thought his point was interesting. But since we don’t know exactly what the selection criteria was in the past, it’s hard to say whether history will repeat itself. And that’s pretty much the point, isn’t it? In either case (history of success of top 3 versus criteria, or Ross’s past competition history versus his 2018 medal at Nats) you’re trying to gauge the future by looking at the past. Neither way is sure, but I’m sure the committee did its best.

My interpretation of what Mark said was that the only times the committee deviated from National results in the past was in the case of a medal favorite. That's not very specific about the criteria, but it is certainly a historic fact.

We can agree that the committee made the decision it felt best - I'm sure they tried to faithfully evaluate according to the criteria. It was not an easy decision.

I'm not ascribing anything poor about the committee - it's more the criteria.

I don't disagree with what you said about Ross "trend v. fluke" but the same can be said of Adam. We don't know if his poor performance was a fluke or the sign of a downward trend. One of the things that we can say though, is that when the pressure was on to deliver at the most important competition, the one that has traditionally been used to select the Olympic team... Ross delivered and Adam didn't. Or at least Ross delivered more, according to the scores.

Mrs. P · Jan 22, 2018

TontoK said:
We will see, but Mark Mitchell made a point in his TSL interview... yeah, I know the deal with TSL, but the interview was interesting.

Anyway, Mark pointed out that in all the instances that USFSA has appointed someone to the Olympic team who had not qualified on the basis of performance at US Nationals... all of those cases combined resulted in exactly one medal. Nancy Kerrigan.

So, even with medal favorites, the history says... if you don't perform well (or at all, in the case of illness/injury) at US Nationals, you won't deliver in the Olympics.

The sample size is really small -- we're talking three people (four if you count that Michelle was technically on the team for a brief moment in 2006) -- Todd Eldridge in 1992, Nancy Kerrigan in 1994 and Ashley Wagner 2014. And arguably you can state that Ashley contributed to the bronze in the team event, so that's 2 out of 3. (I get some people don't, but just throwing it out there).

There's also are examples where people CRUSHED it at Nationals and crumbled at the Olympics. See Jeremy Abbott in 2010 (and 2014 to an extent.) If Jeremy had turned in his U.S. Nationals performance in Vancouver, he would have likely been an Olympic medalist.

Again, I prefer Ross far more than Adam and would have preferred them to send Ross (really the top 3 at Nats) but I'm also an advocate of checking confirmation bias. Mark Mitchell, honestly, is going to pick at all the worst things about team selection that involve BOW/non-Nationals criteria because he has been on the wrong side of it so many times.

FWIW, his other student Emmy Ma is going to junior Worlds (due to Starr Andrews W/D) although she had a dismal nationals. I actually LOVE Emmy, so this is great as a fan -- but under Mark's logic arguably they should have sent Tessa Hong, Kaitlin Nguyen or Byrnne McIssac, JGP skaters/junior eligible skaters who all beat her at Nationals. Or even Pooja Kalayan (send her to Bavarian Open for TES minimums) who scored nearly 30 points more winning the silver medal at the junior level. But Emmy also is the only junior skater to medal at the JGP.

ice coverage · Jan 22, 2018

Random FYI re 2018 OWG:

The alternate training site in Korea set up by USFS is approx. two hours away.

ETA:

I now have refreshed my memory ... that last year Jason reported on the practice site in Chuncheon as part of his blogging from 2017 Four Continents.
A "2.5-hour drive from Chuncheon to Gangneung," per Jason's experience.
http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2017/02/13/215863584/the-journey-begins-brown-blogs-from-south-korea (2017 Feb)

The alternate training site is one of the bits mentioned in this Colorado Springs news piece re USFS logistics/preparation for the Games [ETA: which could be of interest anyway, IMO]:

The support teams behind Olympic athletes

Posted: Jan 17, 2018 8:52 PM EST
Updated: Jan 17, 2018 9:00 PM EST
Written By Bill Folsom
http://www.koaa.com/story/37289753/the-teams-behind-olympic-athletes (2:50 video + text summary)
https://youtu.be/8cgY1IOx_tY

LOL, a highlight for me was seeing the snack bags that USFS packs in accordance with each skater's individual preferences (also for Four Continents and presumably other international comps).

Hat tip to @devinwang, whose Instagram post led me to the story (in which she is among USFS personnel who are featured

).

(BTW, I believe the cameras at WAIH a few days ago shot some of the footage.)

Posting in this thread b/c I could not think of a more suitable one.
Sorry if I missed a previous mention of the KOAA news piece elsewhere on GS.

TontoK · Jan 22, 2018

I'm hearing what you're saying. I don't disagree with the points you're making. A selection panel is, by its nature, sure to not scratch everyone's itch about who the team should be.

Right or wrong, I have been consistent in that I believe the trials approach would be the fairest solution. It takes matters out of a panel's hands, and puts them in the hands of the athletes.

I don't even support medical byes or waivers.

Is it conceivable that a medal favorite will fail to make an Olympic team? Sure - but that happens nearly every Olympic cycle in sports that have a trial or trial series.

TontoK · Jan 22, 2018

Mrs. P said:
The sample size is really small -- we're talking three people (four if you count that Michelle was technically on the team for a brief moment in 2006) -- Todd Eldridge in 1992, Nancy Kerrigan in 1994 and Ashley Wagner 2014. And arguably you can state that Ashley contributed to the bronze in the team event, so that's 2 out of 3. (I get some people don't, but just throwing it out there).

I don't know the size of the sample, but it's at least one more than you cite. Meno and Sand withdrew before the LP at US Nats, and were named to the Olympic team in 1998. They finished 8th.

Article: http://articles.latimes.com/1998/jan/10/sports/sp-6942

Tavi... · Jan 22, 2018

TontoK said:
My interpretation of what Mark said was that the only times the committee deviated from National results in the past was in the case of a medal favorite. That's not very specific about the criteria, but it is certainly a historic fact.

We can agree that the committee made the decision it felt best - I'm sure they tried to faithfully evaluate according to the criteria. It was not an easy decision.

I'm not ascribing anything poor about the committee - it's more the criteria.

I don't disagree with what you said about Ross "trend v. fluke" but the same can be said of Adam. We don't know if his poor performance was a fluke or the sign of a downward trend. One of the things that we can say though, is that when the pressure was on to deliver at the most important competition, the one that has traditionally been used to select the Olympic team... Ross delivered and Adam didn't. Or at least Ross delivered more, according to the scores.

Yeah I don’t disagree.

I think the only other thing I’d point out about Adam v Ross: Adam was under pressure to deliver here in a way that Ross was not. Adam was expected to make the team by pretty much everyone, and he increased the pressure on himself by making public statements. Ross was under no external pressure at all - no one really expected him to make the team, and in fact, you could argue that he decreased the pressure of expectations by his placements during the fall. I think that makes a huge difference in how you evaluate their performances.

You can see something similar in 2014 - like Ross this year, Jason brought down the house in 2014, and Adam totally blew it. But Jason was under far less pressure than Adam, because everyone expected Adam to make the 2014 team. Jason was in the mix, but I think being 19 without a quad, and a first year senior to boot, he didn’t take it too seriously.

But this year, Jason, like Adam, had both internal and external expectations. You could argue that Jason’s were greater than Adam’s, because Jason is already an Olympian. Unfortunately, Jason didn’t handle the pressure very well. Adam wasn’t perfect, but he was better than Jason, and better than he himself was in 2014. The biggest difference between 2014 Jason and 2018 Ross was that Jason did much better in his three fall assignments.

That’s really my long winded way of saying that in order to evaluate how well Ross and Adam delivered at Nats, the context is important.

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 22, 2018

Mrs. P said:
The sample size is really small -- we're talking three people (four if you count that Michelle was technically on the team for a brief moment in 2006) -- Todd Eldridge in 1992, Nancy Kerrigan in 1994 and Ashley Wagner 2014. And arguably you can state that Ashley contributed to the bronze in the team event, so that's 2 out of 3. (I get some people don't, but just throwing it out there).

You could also argue that 25% of athletes who are sent without a qualifying place at Nationals go on to medal, which is a much higher percentage than those who do qualify at the event.

ozmodiar · Jan 22, 2018

TontoK said:
I don't know the size of the sample, but it's at least one more than you cite. Meno and Sand withdrew before the LP at US Nats, and were named to the Olympic team in 1998. They finished 8th.

Article: http://articles.latimes.com/1998/jan/10/sports/sp-6942

Also, last year when Cain/Leduc were given 4 Continents and 1st alternate for Worlds over Castelli/Tran (and World Team Trophy over everybody) it showed that USFSA just wants to send whoever they think will do the best and the list of criteria is really more of a smokescreen.

jaylee · Jan 22, 2018

Tavi... said:
Yeah I don’t disagree.

I think the only other thing I’d point out about Adam v Ross: Adam was under pressure to deliver here in a way that Ross was not. Adam was expected to make the team by pretty much everyone, and he increased the pressure on himself by making public statements. Ross was under no external pressure at all - no one really expected him to make the team, and in fact, you could argue that he decreased the pressure of expectations by his placements during the fall. I think that makes a huge difference in how you evaluate their performances.

I disagree completely. How do you know that Ross, believing that US Nationals would be a bigger factor in deciding, wasn't placing a huge amount of pressure on himself to deliver? The evidence points to the contrary -- that Ross and his coach did believe that US Nationals would be important as it was listed as Tier 1 criteria, and correspondingly, he had as much, if not more pressure on himself than Adam, whereas Adam had less pressure because he was claiming that he had already proven that he should go to the Olympics before he had even stepped on the ice.

For the record, I was at both 2014 and 2018 US Nationals live for the men's, and it looked like to me like Adam just collapsed under the pressure both times.

Tavi... · Jan 22, 2018

jaylee said:
I disagree completely. How do you know that Ross, believing that US Nationals would be a bigger factor in deciding, wasn't placing a huge amount of pressure on himself to deliver? The evidence points to the contrary -- that Ross and his coach did believe that US Nationals would be important as it was listed as Tier 1 criteria, and correspondingly, he had as much, if not more pressure on himself than Adam, whereas Adam had less pressure because he was claiming that he had already proven that he should go to the Olympics before he had even stepped on the ice.

For the record, I was at both 2014 and 2018 US Nationals live for the men's, and it looked like to me like Adam just collapsed under the pressure both times.

What I said was pure speculation, but it’s my personal opinion, based on my experience as someone who used to compete and perform in a different field at a relatively high level. Anyone who competes and wants to win puts him or herself under the kind of pressure you’re talking about. But with success comes the additional pressure, both internal and external, to stay at or exceed that level. When people expect you to win, it’s just different. All I’m saying is that Ross didn’t have that extra pressure; Jason and Adam did. YMMV.

ReasonOFF · Jan 24, 2018

they both are weak and aren't contenders for the medals. even for the top5-6. just pointless dispute. you better wish good luck to our boy nathan!

Tavi... · Jan 24, 2018

ReasonOFF said:
they both are weak and aren't contenders for the medals. even for the top5-6. just pointless dispute. you better wish good luck to our boy nathan!

Talk about pointless posts.

ice coverage · Jan 24, 2018

Happy Birthday to Ross Miner :hb:

:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BeVs6nXlaiD/?taken-by=usfigureskating (Jan 24)

Good luck to Max, Grant, Jason, at Four Continents :yay:.

In the fan threads, Arriba627 posted a very nice photo of them at the SP draw:

https://twitter.com/online_on_ice/status/956051190709702657?s=09

Similar one posted by USFS:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BeVl50DFzNl/?taken-by=usfigureskating (Jan 24)

Jason posted a mini-video of himself at the draw (shot by Max, per Devin Wang):

https://www.instagram.com/p/BeVJqCygn_T/?taken-by=jasonbskates

Grant skates first in the penultimate group, Group 4. Warm-up for his group begins at 19:09:30 local time Thu Jan 25.

Start order of the final group, Group 5:

Ge
Jin
Aaron
Brown
Tanaka
Uno
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/fc2018/fc2018_Men_SP_TimeSchedule.pdf

Warm-up for the final group begins at 20:11:00 local time.

matmuh posted YouTube streaming links for the Men's SP and FS (also Ladies and Gala):

https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/s...-Live-Stream&p=1941666&viewfull=1#post1941666

ice coverage · Jan 25, 2018

For those who enjoy Max/Jason and their camaraderie:

Good stuff of them is in a Boyang-centric fancam video as their SP group awaits the six-minute warm-up.

Jason is pacing, further away from the door to the ice. Max is in quiet mode on the other side of the door.
Jason starts waving and smiling at the crowd ... then someone is signaling for Boyang and him to start lining up close to the door.
Max stretching, etc., as he eventually gets into line ahead of Jason.

Seems that Jason notices a photo request, and he puts his arm around Max as they quickly lean in to pose together.
Before and after, Jason momentarily puts both hands on Max's shoulders from behind -- like a gesture of solidarity, I think :ghug:

.

The photo is over, Max takes off his jacket, and Jason kinda pats him on the shoulder. Max turns around with a smile.

Within a few more seconds, the group takes the ice, and they're off to the races ...

https://twitter.com/fang_minji/status/956527480239607808 (Jan 25)

ETA (on Jan 26):

And ... I believe the photo posted today by USFS is the one that Max and Jason were seen posing for within the video:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BebKcril6OL/?taken-by=usfigureskating

Very sweet. Love seeing these two friends together :luv17:.

FS schedule:

Grant competes last in Group 2. His skate starts at 14:16:40 local time on Sat Jan 27.

Jason and Max in the final group, which is Group 4.
Warm-up for Group 4 starts at 15:37:30 local time.

Brown
Aaron
Yan
Uno
Tanaka
Jin
www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/fc2018/fc2018_Men_FS_TimeSchedule.pdf

Go, Team USA :yay:.

rosacotton · Jan 27, 2018

ice coverage said:
And ... I believe the photo posted today by USFS is the one that Max and Jason were seen posing for within the video:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BebKcril6OL/?taken-by=usfigureskating

Very sweet. Love seeing these two friends together :luv17:.

Mrs. P · Jan 27, 2018

ice coverage said:
And ... I believe the photo posted today by USFS is the one that Max and Jason were seen posing for within the video:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BebKcril6OL/?taken-by=usfigureskating

Very sweet. Love seeing these two friends together :luv17:.
[/INDENT][/INDENT]

Max and Jason's antics in the Green Room with Shoma is blowing up Twitter! It is pretty awesome, I have to say.
https://twitter.com/eggrater/status/957218978845175809

Also, this is the sweetest thing ever: Jason (and Tarah O'Kayne and Danny OShea) cheering for Grant after his free skate! Jason and Grant have such a lovely friendship!
https://twitter.com/pandaatlarge/status/957138052769394688

Leaving the best for last -- Congrats to Jason on his first ISU championship medal! For the time being he has the second highest overall score among the U.S. men. He certainly gave a good reminder to USFS that he can still score big with what he's got. It's pretty likely his season is over (though he's still 1st alternate for Worlds) but this is a good way to end especially after such a tough season.

Max and Grant had great free skates as well! It will be interesting to hear what Max decides in the coming months regarding his future. And now Grant can enjoy the wedding planning process with Caroline (and enjoying their travels!)

Skater Boy · Jan 27, 2018

Happy for all. I wonder what Caroline and Grant will do now? Skating is so expensive so I guess in some way they might have more without skating. The future of USAs mens team looks great even if Brown retires. Nathan, Vincent and Jimmy Ma are the future.

TontoK · Jan 27, 2018

Skater Boy said:
Happy for all. I wonder what Caroline and Grant will do now? Skating is so expensive so I guess in some way they might have more without skating. The future of USAs mens team looks great even if Brown retires. Nathan, Vincent and Jimmy Ma are the future.

I know that Jimmy Ma was an internet sensation with his SP at Nationals, but I'm not so sure I'd call him the "future" at least not yet.

This isn't meant to throw shade at Ma, but more to inject some realism.

I know I'm an old geezer, but I thought the SP was more gimmick than substance, designed to "go viral" which it did.

But I didn't think it was great skating. That impression was extended in the LP, which was so forgettable that I've forgotten the music, except that it was something much more traditional - and not particularly well skated.

I think "the future" is more likely to be found in the US Junior men than in Ma.

2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

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