Yuzuru is going to put 5 quads
- Thread starter cinnamon
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- May 17, 2017
So we are saying skaters will not do well this and that at the Olympic which will happen in the next 6 months based on their practice during summer when their stamina are at the lowest. Nice try.
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- Jan 28, 2013
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The men are, for now, the highlight of a skating event.
The risk/reward factor is huge. No one is a safe bet now, and none of the top skaters can be discounted as a legitimate threat.
Anything can happen on any given day, and that makes for exciting sport.
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- Jan 25, 2013
I don't think they're saying that. I think they're saying that he's more likely to go with the layout without the 4Z because of the risk it presents. His lutz has given him issues in the past, so I think it's super risky to try to put a 4Z in there, but obviously it creates room for a second triple axel. While it's gotten URs in the past, his 4T is pretty consistent for him - way moreso than his 4S.
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- Dec 29, 2011
There is no 270° UR with that 4T anyway, no matter if Yuzus stamina is at it's lowest there or not. But it's not uncommon people confuse actual UR (aka the landing in relation to the take off direction) and a skater turning a lot on the blade after they landed.
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- Nov 29, 2015
The 3Lz is a good jump for Yuzuru. It was when he started messing with the quad that things got a tad dodgy, which isn't at all unusual.
No, he's messed around with other combos though so who knows next season, considering the rules change. Though I imagine even then probably not, as he wants that 4A.
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- May 17, 2017
How about waiting for several months until they settle down the layout and we will see how it's going by then.
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- Jan 25, 2013
Sure! And while we're at it, how about we all stop discussing anything that skaters might be doing in the future, and avoid all speculation and predictions until things actually happen?
:sarcasm:- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
I think his lutz technique has improved, but in the past he's leaned on it (compromising some of his 3Z+3T combos), and even fallen on it here and there. For a quad lutz, he would have to go straight up with vertical axis, and he doesn't always do that. And he himself says he prefers doing edge jumps. I'm sure he could do it, but I just don't think it'll be particularly reliable compared to his other quads/axels.
Anyone have that website that analyzes jump success rate/GOE for every top skater?
Skatedb.net is an amazing resource. It's mostly in Japanese but with enough English for most to be able to navigate. You can even toggle between all competitions which includes Nationals, or ISU only competitions. You can even compare total points gained for jumps/combinations across competitors.
I believe Skatedb.net has records for all senior competition, in Yuzuru's case his 3Lz (solo and combo) since 2010 is at 68.8% for ISU-only competitions according to the site.
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- Jan 25, 2013
Thanks!
Love that site... I should bookmark it, lol. OMG, I just looked at Medvedeva's jump percentage stats. She's landed 95.2% of her 3S, 97% of her 3L, 91.8% 3F, 98.4% of her 3T.
What an amazing site!
So Yuzu landed 72.2% of his 3Lz. Boyang 66.7% and Nathan 88.6%. Shoma only 42.5%? He wants to add 4Lz seriously?
So ok, Yuzu underrotated total 8 4T's out of 71 since he was 15 yo. Very interesting. (Must laugh at 92.3% success rate for his 3A)
Wow it's interesting to see jump stats as a whole. Yuzuru's actually got some pretty good success rates on most of his quads (probably one of the highest, if not the highest among the top 6 men) and goodness, that consistency with his 3A is incredible geeeeeez and he's been skating in seniors for years now. Amusing that his 4lo has a higher success rate than his 4S but at least, numerically, he's more likely to land his quads than not.
Also he and Javi almost have the same consistency on the 4T and 4S.
Given how his 3lz seems to have a decent success rate, he's confident enough to train the 4lz. Although I remember than post-Sochi (and probably longer before that) he's already been playing with both the 4lz and 4lo, so it's no surprise that he'd want to stabilize it. His hard work on the 4lo has certainly paid off and it's quite a beautiful jump.
Also he and Javi almost have the same consistency on the 4T and 4S.
Given how his 3lz seems to have a decent success rate, he's confident enough to train the 4lz. Although I remember than post-Sochi (and probably longer before that) he's already been playing with both the 4lz and 4lo, so it's no surprise that he'd want to stabilize it. His hard work on the 4lo has certainly paid off and it's quite a beautiful jump.
That may be true, they probably get categorized under what the protocols list rather than intended layout.
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- Dec 29, 2011
As kiches said, the site seems to recognize only what is factually written in the protocol, not the intention. So a popped jump will not be counted as an unsuccessful one (i.e. an attempted 4S tripled will be counted as a 3S, potentially even a successful one if it got +GOE). Other than that though, everything should be recognized normally, falls, <'s, <<'s, wrong edges (the explanation to Shomas low 3Lz success rate), anything that accounts for negative GOE. Only >0 GOE jumps are recognized as successful.
In a bit more detail - in the last season, Yuzu attempted 9 4Ts, all of which were in the 2nd half of his LP. He URed exactly one of those - the first one at ACI. All the others were fully rotated, 7 got +GOE at that (with an average of +1.48). The only other 4T outside of the ACI one to get negative GOE was the 4Tlo3S combo from WTT, with a -0.23 . That's some really good consistency and quality with that element, and absolutely nothing that makes it look like he is in such a risk of 4T<<'s in the future.
PS: I have to laugh a bit about Boyangs 3Lz rate being actually lower than Yuzus if pops aren't taken into account (66.7% to 72.2%). Guess somebody should tell him he shouldn't go for a 4Lz, might not be a very reliable jump for him
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- Jan 25, 2013
Well in Jin's case most of those -GOE ones were on the Junior Circuit (when judges are less inclined to give more GOE, especially with Jin having been a relative unknown, from China at that). If you look at the actual jumps the actual lutzes were pretty much fine. Only in one instance as a senior did he get negative GOE on his lutz, -0.40 at the 2015 GPF.
And yeah the DB doesn't take into account pops otherwise Chan would have a lower success rate on his 3A and Hanyu would have a lower success rate on his 4S.
And yeah the DB doesn't take into account pops otherwise Chan would have a lower success rate on his 3A and Hanyu would have a lower success rate on his 4S.
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
Boyangs been going for the 4Lz before his good senior 3Lz's though! ...I was just poking you though, no need to defend Boyangs 3Lz
It's a really good jump for him and it made sense for him to go for that 4Lz (as his success with that jump proves anyway).Regarding Yuzus 3Lz though, I'd defend it as one of his best jumps as well. The success rate he has is IMO influenced by a lot of other factors that make it appear as less stable than it is on it's own. It's the last jump in his LP and the one most affected by stamina problems. It was affected by him starting to train the quad, and with Chopin it seemed to be a lot about timing issues, because he couldn't time the jump entrance/take off to the music. That's not to excuse the not landed 3Lzs, he messed them up obviously, but I think the reason are of other nature than his lutz itself. Problems a 4lz at the beginning of the program would potentially not be affected with.
Not to say the 4Lz (+5 quads) isn't a risky move. It is. But with the way the overall field is, arguably not upgrading is risky as well. It all depends on how the jump really is in practices, which is something we have no knowledge of.
