Kostner's plan for the Lutz in 2018?

daphna · Sep 14, 2017

Just watched her SP from Lombardia and it's goregeous already. she did a triple flip-dbl toe combo, 3 loop, and 2 axel. scored over 70.
The big question of course is what is the status of her Lutz. she managed to get it back in time for Sochi and it was great. anyone know what's in store technically for Carolina next year?

daphna · Sep 26, 2017

anyone?

puremagic · Sep 26, 2017

daphna said:
anyone?

Better to ask Papa Mishin.

puremagic · Sep 26, 2017

Maybe her 3T will be replaced by 3Lz, when she will manage to do 3-3 combo (3F+3T or 3T+3T).

nimi · Sep 26, 2017

puremagic said:
Maybe her 3T will be replaced by 3Lz, when she will manage to do 3-3 combo (3F+3T or 3T+3T).

Didn't she try 3F3T in some competition already last season? I would expect her planned FP layout to begin with 3F3T (instead of the 3F2T she did in Lombardia) and also she's probably going for 2ALo3S (2ALo2S in Lombardia) so yes, it does look like she might be planning to include a 3Lz (instead of the solo 3T) because she can't repeat 3F, 3S and 3T.

berry8 · Sep 26, 2017

Am I the very only one who thinks she is heavily overscored?
Have u guys ever heard about a skater not even jumping a 3-3 scoring higher than 70 in the short?

qwerty · Sep 26, 2017

berry8 said:
Am I the very only one who thinks she is heavily overscored?
Have u guys ever heard about a skater not even jumping a 3-3 scoring higher than 70 in the short?

Joannie Rochette, Irina Slutskaya, Sasha Cohen

solani · Sep 26, 2017

I don't think that we'll see a 3Lz in Carolina's SP. She's not doing steps into the 3Lz and it's been surely over a decade since she did 3Lz-3T. So her goal will be 3F-3T and 3Lo in the SP. Nobody should complain about that, the current WC is doing just the same.
But I think she'll go for the 3Lz in the FS at the Olympics, simply because it's beautiful when she hits it and she'll want to present her full technical arsenal.

@puremagic
Yes, I think it's quite possible that she'll replace the 3T with a 3Lz in the FS but I think she'll do the 3Lz early in the program. The layout looks as if she wants to repeat the 3F and the 3S.
Something like that:
3F-3T
3Lz
3F
3Lo
2A-1Lo-3S
2A
3S-2T
And I'm also very curious about what she can still do technically ... I'm really looking forward to seeing her progress this season.

daphna · Sep 26, 2017

Once she has a Lutz for the LP, she will be in contention for a medal at worlds and olympics. She doesn't need it for the SP, just a clean one in the free.
At Euros she scored a 138 for a program with 6 triples, no Lutz, and a 3 toe-3toe. I can totally see her winning silver or bronze at the olympics.
Artistically, she is the best in the world.

puremagic · Sep 26, 2017

daphna said:
Once she has a Lutz for the LP, she will be in contention for a medal at worlds and olympics. She doesn't need it for the SP, just a clean one in the free.
At Euros she scored a 138 for a program with 6 triples, no Lutz, and a 3 toe-3toe. I can totally see her winning silver or bronze at the olympics.
Artistically, she is the best in the world.

Sure. She is the only one skater who can constantly receive 70-75 PCS with 50-55 TES. If she will do 3-3 combo, 3Lz, and all these elements will be well executed, then she could have 145+ points.

Ender · Sep 26, 2017

Her jumps are so weak right now, can't blame it, she's not young and not at her prime anymore. I don't see the Lutz happening. She should just aim at skating clean, which she rarely does.

drivingmissdaisy · Sep 26, 2017

berry8 said:
Am I the very only one who thinks she is heavily overscored?
Have u guys ever heard about a skater not even jumping a 3-3 scoring higher than 70 in the short?

She is definitely slower than before, but all of the top skaters these days each have their own deficiencies. Carolina is strong in a lot of areas aside from the technical elements, so I think the high PCS is justified. If Evgenia can score 80 with a 3F-3T and a 3Lo, Carolina getting 70 for a 3F-2T and a 3Lo doesn't seem terribly wrong.

Tolstoj · Sep 26, 2017

daphna said:
Just watched her SP from Lombardia and it's goregeous already. she did a triple flip-dbl toe combo, 3 loop, and 2 axel. scored over 70.
The big question of course is what is the status of her Lutz. she managed to get it back in time for Sochi and it was great. anyone know what's in store technically for Carolina next year?

She is planning to get back the 3f-3t (so far only 3f-2t), the lutz i think she will try to add it just in time at the Olympics.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Sep 26, 2017

qwerty said:
Joannie Rochette, Irina Slutskaya, Sasha Cohen

You beat me to it.

A 3-2 instead of a 3-3 is simply a loss of about 3-4 points. And a 3Z+2T is worth 7.3 while a 3T+3T is worth 8.6... which is just 1.3 points difference. So a skater like Kostner who has a personal best of 77 points with a 3-3 getting 70 points with a 3-2, isn't completely out of the realm of reason.

People are cool with a skater getting above 70 points with a fall... so I don't see why doubling a jump and going clean is so much more severe (especially when the SP requirement is a quad or triple in combination with another triple or double jump -- and a 3-2 combo is perfectly suitable going by those rules).

I don't think we'll see a solo 3Z by Kostner in the SP any time soon - her flip and loop are much stronger, and her lutz has a long entry, which could make it prone to an automatic -3 reduction for lack of preceding steps before the solo jump (not that judges care about that when it comes to top skaters).

She really needs to do it in the FS though. She can't afford to replace a 3Z with a 2A and still be competitive.

No shade, but this ain't the 2012 Worlds field anymore.

solani · Sep 26, 2017

Ender said:
Her jumps are so weak right now, can't blame it, she's not young and not at her prime anymore. I don't see the Lutz happening. She should just aim at skating clean, which she rarely does.

The interesting thing about her comeback is that she's more consistent now. Yes, she's doubling some of her triples but she rarely falls. She also said that she doesn't have really scary falls in training like she used to. I think that Mishin slowed her down on purpose, she's more in control now. She can aim for whatever she wants and she doesn't need to qualify for any event, so she can have an age-appropriate training plan to be in the best possible shape at Europeans, Olympics and Worlds. Her jumps are not weak. Let's see how some of the young girls you admire will jump in 5 years when they're only 20 something.

drivingmissdaisy · Sep 26, 2017

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
She really needs to do it in the FS though. She can't afford to replace a 3Z with a 2A and still be competitive.

I expect that she'll have it in the LP. When she reintroduced the jump around 2013, it was pretty consistent. Off the top of my head, I can't remember her missing a single one in the 2013 and 2014 seasons. It may also be an issue of the extra triple draining her energy and making it more difficult to finish strong in the LP.

Tolstoj · Sep 26, 2017

berry8 said:
Am I the very only one who thinks she is heavily overscored?
Have u guys ever heard about a skater not even jumping a 3-3 scoring higher than 70 in the short?

Yes she is, it's like her status that means automatic huge inflation (for instance Patrick Chan and Yuzuru Hanyu are in the same position)

I mean i don't complain too much because she is representing Italy, and she is still a great skater, but yeah above the 70s with that poor technical contents is laughable.

penguin · Sep 26, 2017

She doesn't have all her jumps back yet, but I think it's very strange to say her jumps are weak. They're gorgeous! I was expecting any number of errors at Lombardia and watered-down content, but was amazed at the height and air position she gets on all her jumps, and particularly the 3F combo. She's slower now than she has ever been, but remember she used to be lightning fast and had to actually slow down to gain consistency. I think she'll regain some of her old speed, even if she doesn't regain all of it.

mrrice · Sep 26, 2017

penguin said:
She doesn't have all her jumps back yet, but I think it's very strange to say her jumps are weak. They're gorgeous! I was expecting any number of errors at Lombardia and watered-down content, but was amazed at the height and air position she gets on all her jumps, and particularly the 3F combo. She's slower now than she has ever been, but remember she used to be lightning fast and had to actually slow down to gain consistency. I think she'll regain some of her old speed, even if she doesn't regain all of it.

Personally, the fact that she wants to skate at all is a big enough deal to me. She's has a World Title, 5 European Titles, 7 National Titles, and an Olympic Bronze Medal. That's a hall of fame career by any standard. I'm guessing she's sticking around for one more shot at the Olympics.

samkrut@mail.ru · Sep 26, 2017

And she has a chance. Not that I am a big fan of her current skating. I think it is too slow and basic when compared to her own self in Sochi. But she has experience of Olympics and she can get at the top of her shape by then, give it all and skate clean like she did in Sochi. And everybody else may not withstand Olympic pressure Evgenia included. She seems to be not yet OK with her FS layout. Add lack of Olympic experience, add the crowd who may not be friendly (I hope, it won't happen, though). And then Caro suddenly has a chance even for OGM. That would be a feat even bigger than Maria Butyrskaya's worlds medal.

Kostner's plan for the Lutz in 2018?

daphna

daphna

puremagic

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puremagic

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nimi

berry8

qwerty

solani

daphna

puremagic

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Ender

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drivingmissdaisy

Tolstoj

CanadianSkaterGuy

solani

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