Qualifiers for the GPF / Event Info | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Qualifiers for the GPF / Event Info

Spirals for Miles

Anna Shcherbakova is my World Champion
Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 25, 2017
I’m going to write down my predictions for the last two events (1st-4th), and based on those, put down who I think will be the final qualifers and alternates.

IDF:
I think Zagitova will win gold, with Osmond close behind. I just can’t see anyone beating them as long as they don’t have major meltdowns. 3rd and 4th will likely be between Sotskova and Mihara.

SA:
Tsurskaya is looking strong and consistent, so I think she’ll win here. 2nd-4th will likely be between Wagner, Chen, Sakamoto, Daleman, and Miyahara.

Let’s assume that this is exactly what happens. Medvedeva, Zagitova, Osmond, and Kostner are all in for sure.

First off - IDF. Sotskova in 3rd would put her in a scoring tiebreaker with Higuchi. Sotskova needs a huge 220+ score to win this tiebreaker, which is highly unlikely, so she’ll probably go behind Higuchi. If Mihara places anywhere lower than 3rd then she’s out for sure. If she places 2nd or 3rd, she’ll likely be an alternate.

Assuming all of the above has happened in France, let’s move on to USA. A win for Tsurskaya will put her into the final for sure. A silver for Ashley will put her into a scoring tiebreaker with both Higuchi and Sotskova, but since Ashley needs an enormous 230+ score to win it, it’s safe to say that the chances of it happening are extremely slim. Chen, Daleman, Sakamoto, and Miyahara can no longer qualify no matter how high they place. If either Sakamoto or Miyahara place 2nd, then they may be in the list of alternates.

So if this all happened, then the qualifers would be:

1. Medvedeva (15+15=30)
2. Zagitova (15+15=30)
3. Osmond (15+13=28)
4. Tsurskaya (11+15=26)
5. Kostner (13+13=26)
6. Higuchi (11+13=24)

Sotskova would be an alternate for sure. The remaining 2 alternates would be any of the other skaters I mentioned above who have not qualified.

This is a complicated process, but kinda fun to think about. :laugh:

Why do Ashley and Maria need different scores? Wouldn't they both need 212+ since that's the highest she got at a GP? And then whichever of them had the highest, if both were to be higher than 212 (highly unlikely, but hypothetical) would go to the GPF? And the other two would be two of the alternates?
 

Mawwerg

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2014
Miyahara still has some chances to qualify. Something like it:
1.Zagitova\Osmond 1.Miyahara
4.Sotskova 2.Daleman\Sakomoto

It's a little chance but not something unbelievable.
 

randomfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2014
Why do Ashley and Maria need different scores? Wouldn't they both need 212+ since that's the highest she got at a GP? And then whichever of them had the highest, if both were to be higher than 212 (highly unlikely, but hypothetical) would go to the GPF? And the other two would be two of the alternates?

You’re suppposed to add the two total scores that the skater received. The person with the highest total from adding the two numbers will be placed higher. If my predicted scenario happened and Wakaba, Maria, and Ashley are all tied in placement points, then we need to add up their GP scores from both events. The person with the higher total wins.

Wakaba has a total of 419. Maria got 192 and Ashley got 183 (I think). They each need to get a second score that would make their total higher than 419 to beat Wakaba. Thus, Ashley needs a higher second total score than Maria.
 

Spirals for Miles

Anna Shcherbakova is my World Champion
Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 25, 2017
You’re suppposed to add the two total scores that the skater received. The person with the highest total from adding the two numbers will be placed higher. If my predicted scenario happened and Wakaba, Maria, and Ashley are all tied in placement points, then we need to add up their GP scores from both events. The person with the higher total wins.

Wakaba has a total of 419. Maria got 192 and Ashley got 183 (I think). They each need to get a second score that would make their total higher than 419 to beat Wakaba. Thus, Ashley needs a higher second total score than Maria.

Ohhh okay.
Thanks for explaining!
 

kenboy123

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
The final line up for the Ladies seem pretty clear to me unless something super crazy happens...

Carolina Kostner (CONFIRMED)
Evegnia Medvedeva (I MEAN DUH)
Kaetlyn Osmond
Maria Sotskova
Polina Tsurskaya
Alina Zagitova

I don't know the math behind it, but these seem the most likely???...this would be a great line up in my opinion...

Hmmm...one more to go, but it looks like my original predictions are going to be right after all...
 

yoloaxel

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 23, 2017
Ladies standings after 5 events

Evgenia Medvedeva - 30; 455.60 (CoR+NHK)
Alina Zagitova - 30; 427.68 (CoC+TdF)
Kaetlyn Osmond - 26 419.68 (SC+TDF)
Carolina Kostner - 26; 428.22 (CoR+NHK)
Maria Sotskova - 26; 401.30 (SC+TdF)
Wakaba Higuchi - 24; 419.69 (CoR+CoC)

--
Elena Radionova - 20; 402.34 (CoR+CoC)
Mai Mihara - 18; 408.19 (CoC+TdF)
Marin Honda - 14; 376.56 (SC+CoC)
Polina Tsurskaya - 11; 210.19 (NHK) - SA to skate
Ashley Wagner - 11; 183.94 (SC) - SA to skate
Elizabet Tursynbaeva - 10 385.93 (CoR+TdF)
Mirai Nagasu - 9; 372.71 (CoR+NHK)
Rika Hongo - 9; 364.17 (SC+NHK)
Courtney Hicks - 9; 182.57 (SC) - NO OTHER ASSIGNMENT
Kaori Sakamoto - 7; 194.00 (CoR) - SA to skate
Satoko Miyahara - 7; 191.80 (NHK) - SA to skate
Gabrielle Daleman - 5; 196.83 (CoC) - SA to skate
Alena Leonova - 5; 190.95 (NHK) - SA to skate
Mariah Bell - 5; 188.56 (CoR+NHK)
 

ask

Match Penalty
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
Looking at the score, the GPF medalists will be Med, Zag, and Kostner.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Men after TdF (5 of 6 events)

Shoma Uno - 28 (SC/TdF -1st/1st)
Mikhail Kolyada - 26 (RC/COC -1st/3rd)
Jason Brown - 22 (SC/NHK - 2nd/4th -507.09)
Javier Fernandez - 20 (COC/TdF - 1st/6th)
Misha Ge 20- (RC/TdF - 3rd/4th- 513.67)
Alexander Samarin 20 (SC/TdF -3rd/4th -503.19)
--
Alexei Bychenko 18 (NHK/TdF - 3rd/5th)
Nathan Chen - 15 (RC- 1st) SKAM to come
Sergei Voronov - 15 (NHK 1st) SKAM to come

Max Aaron - 15 (COC/TdF - 3rd/7th)
Boyang Jin - 13 (COC - 2nd - 264.48) - SKAM to Come
Adam Rippon - 13 (NHK - 2nd - 261.99) SKAM to come
Moris Kvitelashevili - 12 (RC/TdF - 6th/6th)
Keegan Messing - 10 (SC/NHK - 5th/8th)
Vincent Zhou 9 (COC/TdF - 4th/9th)
Patrick Chan 9 (SC - only event)
Dmitri Aliev 7 (RC/NHK - 6th/8th)
Han Yan - 7 (COC /254.61) - SKAM to come
Jorik Hendrickx - 7 (SC/237.31)- SKAM to come


Other folks at Skate America:
Kevin Reynolds -3 (SC)
Takahito Mura - 0 (SC)
Daniel Samohin - 0 (SC)
Ross Miner - only event (host pick)
Maxim Kovtun - only event (he W/D from SC)

Scenarios:
Nathan Chen: At least 5th place finish.
Sergei Voronov: At least 5th place finish.
Adam Rippon: Podium placement or 4th place w/ score of 245.11 or higher.
Boyang Jin: Podium placement or 4th place w/score of 242.62 or higher
Han and Jorik: They have to win SkAm (unlikely)
 
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rosacotton

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 2, 2012
Men after TdF (5 of 6 events)

Shoma Uno - 30 (SC/TdF -1st/1st)
Mikhail Kolyada - 26 (RC/COC -1st/3rd)
Jason Brown - 22 (SC/NHK - 2nd/4th -507.09)
Javier Fernandez - 20 (COC/TdF - 1st/6th)
Misha Ge 20- (RC/TdF - 3rd/4th- 513.67)
Alexander Samarin 20 (SC/TdF -3rd/4th -503.19)
--
Alexei Bychenko 18 (NHK/TdF - 3rd/5th)
Nathan Chen - 15 (RC- 1st) SKAM to come
Sergei Voronov - 15 (NHK 1st) SKAM to come

Max Aaron - 15 (COC/TdF - 3rd/7th)
Boyang Jin - 13 (COC - 2nd - 264.48) - SKAM to Come
Adam Rippon - 13 (NHK - 2nd - 261.99) SKAM to come
Moris Kvitelashevili - 12 (RC/TdF - 6th/6th)
Keegan Messing - 10 (SC/NHK - 5th/8th)
Vincent Zhou 9 (COC/TdF - 4th/9th)
Patrick Chan 9 (SC - only event)
Dmitri Aliev 7 (RC/NHK - 6th/8th)
Han Yan - 7 (COC /254.61) - SKAM to come
Jorik Hendrickx - 7 (SC/237.31)- SKAM to come


Other folks at Skate America:
Kevin Reynolds -3 (SC)
Takahito Mura - 0 (SC)
Daniel Samohin - 0 (SC)

Shouldn't Shoma have 28 for being second at TdF?
 

Moxiejan

Medalist
Joined
Jan 11, 2014
Country
United-States
A couple weeks ago, it looked like Jason's 22 wouldn't be even in the ballpark for making the final. But Misha Ge's 3rd today was perfect; gave him only 20 points total & kept Samarin (4th) & Bychenko (5th) from passing Jason.

So, now in the final:
28; Shoma
26; Kolyada

and let's assume:
30; Nathan
28, 26, 24, 22: Sergei Voronov

Jason with 22 gets in if ONE of these two places 5th or is 4th with fewer than 507.09 total (because it's impossible for both to be 3rd):
13; Boyang Jin
13; Adam

Here's who realistically could be 4th: Mura, Kovtun, Kevin Reynolds, Ross Miner or Han Yan.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
^ You mean last week? ;) It does seem like eons ago given how things turned out here. LOL.
 

voolfee

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 6, 2014
Jason Brown - 22 (SC/NHK - 2nd/4th -507.09)
Adam Rippon - 13 (NHK - 2nd - 261.99) SKAM to come
Adam Rippon: Podium placement or 4th place w/ score of 241.11 or higher.
You have a mistake, Adam must score 245.11 or higher.
 

Olympic

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Based on scores this year, SA could conceivably be:

1. Chen - 290+
2. Voronov - 270
3. Jin - 265
4. Rippon - 260
5. Yan - 250 (But he is inconsistent)

There is a good chance that the top 4 above make the final, squeezing out Jason Brown

Barring some sort of injury or illness, Chen should make it.

I am not sure if Voronov has found his stride or NHK was a once-in-a-lifetime thing. But, he only needs to finish 5th to make the GPF. I think even if he drops a bit from his NHK performance, he makes the final.

Jin could beat Voronov. I am expecting more in this competition because he is a slow starter at the beginning of the season and gets progressively better.

Rippon performing well should get 4th, but maybe higher if someone like Voronov doesn't do well. He is skating on home turf.

As to the others, Yan looks good and is the one in my mind who could spoil Rippon's chances. While Mura is top notch on a good day, he has been having a lot of problems lately, and Kovtun is the Master of inconsistency. I have no idea where he will place or what we will see from him. He must be feeling a ton of pressure and that is not conducive to great performances. Hendrickx is a nice performer but I don't think he will figure amongst the top. Miner's top score is 248 from two years ago and he scored 233 at Finlandia. I don't think he is going to upset the apple cart. Reynolds hasn't been a real threat for quite a while, either.
 

Tahuu

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 3, 2014
A couple weeks ago, it looked like Jason's 22 wouldn't be even in the ballpark for making the final. But Misha Ge's 3rd today was perfect; gave him only 20 points total & kept Samarin (4th) & Bychenko (5th) from passing Jason.

So, now in the final:
28; Shoma
26; Kolyada

and let's assume:
30; Nathan
28, 26, 24, 22: Sergei Voronov

Jason with 22 gets in if ONE of these two places 5th or is 4th with fewer than 507.09 total (because it's impossible for both to be 3rd):
13; Boyang Jin
13; Adam

Here's who realistically could be 4th: Mura, Kovtun, Kevin Reynolds, Ross Miner or Han Yan.

Han Yan and Kovtun have a chance to place well (>/=4th).
 

russell30

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 14, 2004
So in the ladies who will get the last spot

Tsurskaya
Wagner
or Higuchi

Although I love Wakaba's programs and I think she should be in the Final..I do have a soft spot for Polina! I just hope she can do it...but Ashley or Polina need to Win to guarantee there spot and you can never count Ashley out she is a fighter...I suppose the spoilers would be Satoko or Gabby...If gabby has a strong short she might grab a medal...Leonova could be a dark horse too...
 

AshWagsFan

Edges for days.
Final Flight
Joined
Oct 14, 2017
Country
United-States
So in the ladies who will get the last spot

Tsurskaya
Wagner
or Higuchi

Although I love Wakaba's programs and I think she should be in the Final..I do have a soft spot for Polina! I just hope she can do it...but Ashley or Polina need to Win to guarantee there spot and you can never count Ashley out she is a fighter...I suppose the spoilers would be Satoko or Gabby...If gabby has a strong short she might grab a medal...Leonova could be a dark horse too...

I KNOW! This is going to be such an exciting and suspenseful event to watch!!!
 
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