Fantasy Oly team event - Team USA

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 8, 2018

TontoK said:
This revision differs from my first go, because I'd had the first US Lady skate both and the dancers split.

What changed your mind about Ladies and Dance? For me, Nationals reinforced that there was a clear top US woman capable of getting the highest score in both her segments, and that the dance teams all have the ability to post similar scores.

NaVi · Jan 8, 2018

R.D. said:
If the US wants its absolute best shot at a medal - splitting only dance seems to make the most sense. Chen would do both segments for men; Tennell both for ladies; Knierims both for pairs.

Don't think they can do that.... you have to split two events.

Pairs and Dance are a given... the issue is do you split mens or womens. Splitting men is the conservative path for sIlver or bronze while splitting women may give a slightly better chance to upset for gold.

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 8, 2018

Mathman said:
I would go with Mirai in the SP and Bradie in the long. Mirai could score well if she hits her triple Axel in the short, and she will not have to worry about holding it together for 6 more jumping passes. Bradie has a better chance than Mirai to outlast Osmond in the long (assuming RUS is beyond reach in either segment). Then it will come down to Mirai beatring Kostner and JPN in the short. The triple Axel is the only hope, whereas Bradie's workmanlike consistency might not be enough.

I'm not sure if the international judges will be as generous with the program components if Mirai has the usual rotate-but-fallout 3A. They have seen a lot of fine executed jumps from Mao, Liza, and Rika in the last few years, so a glaring error isn't going to be as impressive as it is in a national event where nobody attempts the jump. For me, Bradie is the best bet to do both because she is the least likely to bomb a program, based on what we've seen this season. But I'm also biased because I want the Shibs to do the team event, and one woman skating makes it more likely to happen

R.D. · Jan 8, 2018

NaVi said:
Don't think they can do that.... you have to split two events.

Pairs and Dance are a given... the issue is do you split mens or womens. Splitting men is the conservative path for sIlver or bronze while splitting women may give a slightly better chance to upset for gold.

Oh you HAVE to split two disciplines? I thought it was simply an option, but you couldn’t split more than 2...

ramurphy2005 · Jan 8, 2018

R.D. said:
Oh you HAVE to split two disciplines? I thought it was simply an option, but you couldn’t split more than 2...

You're right, it is an option and you can't split more than two.

carriecmu0503 · Jan 8, 2018

R.D. said:
Oh you HAVE to split two disciplines? I thought it was simply an option, but you couldn’t split more than 2...

Countries do not have to split two events. Two events may be split as an option. Some countries in the team event only have one skater per discipline.

Spirals for Miles · Jan 8, 2018

R.D. said:
Oh you HAVE to split two disciplines? I thought it was simply an option, but you couldn’t split more than 2...

I don't think you have to split two...China, France, Germany, Great Britain, and Ukraine didn't at Sochi.
I would do:
Men: SP-Chen, LP-either Rippon or Zhou
Ladies: Tennell for both segments
Pairs: Knierims for both segments
Dance: ShibSibs SD, Hubbell+Donohue FD

TontoK · Jan 8, 2018

drivingmissdaisy said:
What changed your mind about Ladies and Dance? For me, Nationals reinforced that there was a clear top US woman capable of getting the highest score in both her segments, and that the dance teams all have the ability to post similar scores.

I was going with not splitting the ladies before, because I thought only Bradie would be OK. Now I think Mirai would probably place about in the same spot, if the field is narrowed after the SP's.

My perception is... right or wrong... that a dance team would be able to recover from skating two programs better than the ladies would before their individual event.

TontoK · Jan 8, 2018

R.D. said:
If the US wants its absolute best shot at a medal - splitting only dance seems to make the most sense. Chen would do both segments for men; Tennell both for ladies; Knierims both for pairs.

I guess you could gamble on Nagasu for either the ladies SP or FS with her 3A, but her consistency has been meddling at best. I would not even consider Karen Chen here (no offense intended).

If you are the Canadian coaches, who is your team? Do you split any event, or go with your #1 for both?

See, I think it makes it very interesting balancing the needs of the Team vs not wearing out the #1's.

I think there is a pretty significant likely placement drop for Canada in nearly every event if they go with #2 - maybe not dance, but they'll likely lose something there, too.

Russia - also interesting. They can split the ladies, no problem. They'll get a very high placement there. The men? What a crapshoot. Pairs and dancers?

R.D. · Jan 8, 2018

OK thanks for clarifying, guys. So my point still stands - if it’s true that the team event takes a lot out of a singles skater, then it will just depend on how much the US values a team medal shot over individual medals...perhaps if team silver is within reach I’d recommend this move. (I figure gold is out of the question given the state of US pairs)

eggnogkitty · Jan 8, 2018

Pairs: Knierims

Men: SP- Rippon or Zhou, LP- Chen

Dance: SP- Shibutanis, FD- Hubbell & Donohue

Ladies: Tennell both programs

I think they might prefer to split ladies than men, but I doubt Chen will want to do both programs and his individual medal prospects are probably more important given that he is literally the only U.S skater with a chance of any better than a bronze medal. So I cant really see anything other than this taking place.

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 8, 2018

TontoK said:
If you are the Canadian coaches, who is your team? Do you split any event, or go with your #1 for both?

There's also the possibility that you want your medal hopefuls to have their first Olympic skate with a bit less pressure, just to get acclimated competing in the arena. Since Gabby and Kaetlyn both have shots at the podium individually, I would have both compete in the team event if I were the Canadian decision maker.

TontoK · Jan 8, 2018

eggnogkitty said:
Pairs: Knierims

Men: SP- Rippon or Zhou, LP- Chen

Dance: SP- Shibutanis, FD- Hubbell & Donohue

Ladies: Tennell both programs

I think they might prefer to split ladies than men, but I doubt Chen will want to do both programs and his individual medal prospects are probably more important given that he is literally the only U.S skater with a chance of any better than a bronze medal. So I cant really see anything other than this taking place.

Hi, our paths haven't crossed before! So welcome!

I seem to recall an interview or article that said Nathan was training with an eye towards 4 programs at the Olympics. So, he's in the right frame of mind - but I hope the coaches go another direction. He's young and confident, which is great, but I'd hate it if the gas tank ran dry halfway through his Individual LP. I wonder what the time gap is between the two events. I think last time that pairs were up first, then men after the team event, and dancers and ladies had a little longer.

eggnogkitty · Jan 8, 2018

TontoK said:
Hi, our paths haven't crossed before! So welcome!

I seem to recall an interview or article that said Nathan was training with an eye towards 4 programs at the Olympics. So, he's in the right frame of mind - but I hope the coaches go another direction. He's young and confident, which is great, but I'd hate it if the gas tank ran dry halfway through his Individual LP. I wonder what the time gap is between the two events. I think last time that pairs were up first, then men after the team event, and dancers and ladies had a little longer.

I think he is prepared mentally and physically to do 2 programs if he needs to. I just think his coaches, and the USFSA, might prefer he ultimately doesnt, and perhaps Nathan himself.

Some might disagree but I dont think the U.S is going to realistically do better than the Team bronze, and I think they should be fine getting that Team bronze even using a 2nd man.

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 8, 2018

eggnogkitty said:
Some might disagree but I dont think the U.S is going to realistically do better than the Team bronze, and I think they should be fine getting that Team bronze even using a 2nd man.

Agreed. Four competitive programs in roughly a week is too many, even for Nathan. His fourth (the individual LP) is the most important, so it would be a shame if he's even slightly too tired to skate his absolute best.

eggnogkitty · Jan 8, 2018

drivingmissdaisy said:
Agreed. Four competitive programs in roughly a week is too many, even for Nathan. His fourth (the individual LP) is the most important, so it would be a shame if he's even slightly too tired to skate his absolute best.

Agreed, and he cant count on the mens being as poorly skated as it has this season so far. I think that is quite unlikely, and he will have to skate better than he has anytime this season, particularly outside of U.S Nationals which was his best thus far, to ever win gold, or even be fairly certain of a medal.

ramurphy2005 · Jan 8, 2018

I keep debating about whether or not it's better to split Ladies or Dance as my second split choice.

I honestly think that Nathan will skate the SP and Adam will probably get the LP.

I can be swayed either way with either Bradie SP/Mirai LP with Shibs or Bradie with Shibs SD/H&D FD.

Knierims skate both programs which would have happened even if the US had qualified another pair.

sheetz · Jan 8, 2018

Spirals for Miles said:
I would do:
Men: SP-Chen, LP-either Rippon or Zhou
Ladies: Tennell for both segments
Pairs: Knierims for both segments
Dance: ShibSibs SD, Hubell+Donohue FD

I agree with this. Strategically, I think it's better to choose Vincent for the LP since the worst he can do is place 5th, but could place significantly higher if he nails his quads. Adam might be more consistent but that doesn't really pay dividends in the LP. Even if Adam skates well he might still place 5th. OTOH, they might have Adam do the LP as a kind of "lifetime achievement award."

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 8, 2018

ramurphy2005 said:
I can be swayed either way with either Bradie SP/Mirai LP with Shibs or Bradie with Shibs SD/H&D FD.

The dance teams are relatively interchangeable, so whoever competes will likely earn roughly the same placements. I just don't think Mirai has the scoring potential of Bradie, once you factor in the likelihood of UR calls.

eggnogkitty · Jan 8, 2018

sheetz said:
I agree with this. Strategically, I think it's better to choose Vincent for the LP since the worst he can do is place 5th, but could place significantly higher if he nails his quads. Adam might be more consistent but that doesn't really pay dividends in the LP. Even if Adam skates well he might still place 5th. OTOH, they might have Adam do the LP as a kind of "lifetime achievement award."

That is a good point about why it might make sense to use Zhou in the LP and have Chen do the short.

Fantasy Oly team event - Team USA

drivingmissdaisy

NaVi

drivingmissdaisy

R.D.

ramurphy2005

Unabashed Mainer

carriecmu0503

Spirals for Miles

Anna Shcherbakova is my World Champion

TontoK

Hot Tonto

TontoK

Hot Tonto

R.D.

eggnogkitty

Match Penalty

drivingmissdaisy

TontoK

Hot Tonto

eggnogkitty

Match Penalty

drivingmissdaisy

eggnogkitty

Match Penalty

ramurphy2005

Unabashed Mainer

sheetz

drivingmissdaisy

eggnogkitty

Match Penalty

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