Fantasy Oly team event - Team USA

sheetz said:

I agree with this. Strategically, I think it's better to choose Vincent for the LP since the worst he can do is place 5th, but could place significantly higher if he nails his quads. Adam might be more consistent but that doesn't really pay dividends in the LP. Even if Adam skates well he might still place 5th. OTOH, they might have Adam do the LP as a kind of "lifetime achievement award."

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Behind the scenes, it might be tough for Rafael to get two of his skaters doing the team event and Tom Z none. If Mirai doesn't get to do the team event, Vincent might have the edge in being selected over Adam for that reason. However, objectively I think Adam is the better pick because he has delivered steady LPs on many occasions. It will be interesting to see how this turns out.

eggnogkitty said:

That is a good point about why it might make sense to use Zhou in the LP and have Chen do the short.

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Nathan almost certainly has to do the short.

Whoever skates the LP will PROBABLY (nothing is for certain) have to deal with Shoma/Yuzu or Javi. And, depending on what other teams decide... Chan and Kolyada may sit out.

With 10 teams competing, a bad SP skate by the US man could put Team USA out of the medals.

TontoK said:

Nathan almost certainly has to do the short.

Whoever skates the LP will PROBABLY (nothing is for certain) have to deal with Shoma/Yuzu or Javi. And, depending on what other teams decide... Chan and Kolyada may sit out.

With 10 teams competing, a bad SP skate by the US man could put Team USA out of the medals.

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I cant see anyway Spain makes the finals anyway so eliminate Javi from the LP part.

TontoK said:

Nathan almost certainly has to do the short.

Whoever skates the LP will PROBABLY (nothing is for certain) have to deal with Shoma/Yuzu or Javi. And, depending on what other teams decide... Chan and Kolyada may sit out.

With 10 teams competing, a bad SP skate by the US man could put Team USA out of the medals.

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Javi won't be an issue because Spain didn't qualify for the team event. They would have qualified for it if they'd had enough skaters eligible for the Olympics. http://olympics.nbcsports.com/2017/12/09/olympic-figure-skating-team-event-field/

These are the teams that did:

1. Canada
2. Russia
3. United States
4. Japan
5. China
6. Italy
7. France
8. Germany
9. Israel
10. South Korea
Alternate: Australia

ramurphy2005 said:

Javi won't be an issue because Spain didn't qualify for the team event. They would have qualified for it if they'd had enough skaters eligible for the Olympics. http://olympics.nbcsports.com/2017/12/09/olympic-figure-skating-team-event-field/

These are the teams that did:

1. Canada
2. Russia
3. United States
4. Japan
5. China
6. Italy
7. France
8. Germany
9. Israel
10. South Korea
Alternate: Australia

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Thanks, not that Spain ever would have made the long programs or top 5 even if they had a team.

ramurphy2005 said:

Javi won't be an issue because Spain didn't qualify for the team event. They would have qualified for it if they'd had enough skaters eligible for the Olympics. http://olympics.nbcsports.com/2017/12/09/olympic-figure-skating-team-event-field/

These are the teams that did:

1. Canada
2. Russia
3. United States
4. Japan
5. China
6. Italy
7. France
8. Germany
9. Israel
10. South Korea
Alternate: Australia

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How in the world did I not realize that when I wrote my post.

Thank you for the speedy correction!

TontoK said:

How in the world did I not realize that when I wrote my post.

Thank you for the speedy correction!

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No worries. It was for my benefit to look up the list of teams since I wasn't entirely sure who had qualified beyond USA, Canada, Japan, China, and Russia.

ramurphy2005 said:

No worries. It was for my benefit to look up the list of teams since I wasn't entirely sure who had qualified beyond USA, Canada, Japan, China, and Russia.

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OK, everyone, given the list that our friend from Maine has thoughtfully provided...

Who makes the cut to the LP finals? I'm going on faith that USA, Canada, and Russia make it.

So, who are the other two who advance to the final? Are Japan's pairs/dancers better than France's singles skaters? Can the Germans put together enough good placements to back up their pair? I loved this event the first time in Sochi, and I'm liking the prospects even more now. The strategy of the leadup is exciting in that odd way baseball can be, and the outcome, too, depends on how reality plays out against statistics.

BTW, the competition schedule fore all figure skating events is in this wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating_at_the_2018_Winter_Olympics

I've got four countries on the bubble right now in my head, Japan, China, Italy, and France. So, some combination of those four will join the US, Canada, and Russia because I don't think Germany, Israel, or South Korea have enough to make it out of the short.

If I wanted to narrow that down more, I'd go digging around for season's bests, but that's not my favorite thing in the world to do.

TontoK said:

OK, everyone, given the list that our friend from Maine has thoughtfully provided...

Who makes the cut to the LP finals? I'm going on faith that USA, Canada, and Russia make it.

So, who are the other two who advance to the final? Are Japan's pairs/dancers better than France's singles skaters? Can the Germans put together enough good placements to back up their pair? I loved this event the first time in Sochi, and I'm liking the prospects even more now. The strategy of the leadup is exciting in that odd way baseball can be, and the outcome, too, depends on how reality plays out against statistics.

BTW, the competition schedule fore all figure skating events is in this wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating_at_the_2018_Winter_Olympics

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I'm going to say:
Russia
Canada
USA
Italy
France

Japan doesn't have the quality in pairs or dance, and China doesn't have the quality in ladies and dance, whereas France has P/C (very good!), J/C (good chance at placing high) an eh-man (not sure of the top of my head who it is) and either Meite or Lecavelier, who aren't the best in this field, but aren't the worst.

Most likely the placement for SP will look like this. Teams will have their best skaters doing SP

SP Mens

1. Japan(Hanyu)
2. USA (Chen
3. Russia(Kolyada)
4. Canada( CHan
5. China (Jin)

SP Ladies

1. Russia (Medvedeva)
2. Canada (Osmond)
3. Italy (Kostner)
4. Japan (Sakamoto)
5. USA (Tennell)

Pairs

1. China(S/H
2. Germany (S/M)
3. Canada (D/R)
4. Russia (T/M)
5. France (J/C)

Dance
1. France (P/C)
2. Canada (V/M)
3. USA (Shibs)
4. Russia (B/S)
5. Italy (C/L


Final group
1. Russia
2. Canada
3. USA
4. France
5. Japan

FD placement ( Russia can totally use an entire different skaters for FD and their placements will have no big impact to their chances)

Men's FD

1. USA (Chen)
2. Japan (Uno)
3. Russia (Kolyada)
4. Canada (Chan but I really doubt he will skate. I'll probably be a 2nd Canadian guy)
5. France

Ladies FD

1. Russia (Zagitova)
2. Canada (Osmond)
3. Japan
4. USA
5. France

Pairs FD

1. Canada
2. Russia
3. France
4. USA
5. Japan

Dance FD

1. France
2. Canada
3. USA
4. Russia
5. Japan

Final
1. Russia
2. Canada
3. USA

For the highest chance of GOLD, United States team should be:

LADIES:
SP - Karen Chen, easily the best program of the American ladies, obviously she has been less consistent on the 3-3 but if she hits it then the score can be huge
LP - Mirai Nagasu, tech content allows her to have highest scoring ceiling (potentially for the SP too, but that program is much weaker and compares negatively to Medvedeva's same music choice, so this is her stronger event)

MEN:
SP + LP - It needs to be Nathan Chen.

DANCE:
SP - Shibutani/Shibutani, consistently the highest scoring SP of the American dance teams this season
LP - Hubbell/Donohue, the best regarded LP and they've been delivering

PAIRS:
SP + LP - We all know who.

I posted about it in a previous thread, but USA basically needs to get 1st in both segments of Men and 2nd in both segments of Ladies if they want to win the Team Event. I don't think there should be an excuse for Nathan Chen being too tired to do both team and individual, it's a 3 day gap between the Men's SP and LP for the team event and then a 4 day gap after that until the Men's individual SP. That is plenty of time to recover, only the Pairs have a legitimate argument about being too tired with how close their individual event is after the Team event, and last Olympics Stolbova/Klimov skated perfectly in the individual event after skating perfectly in the Team LP, so clearly it's not impossible. And we saw all of the top 3 Dance teams skating both events in 2014.

Blades of Passion said:

For the highest chance of GOLD, United States team should be:

LADIES:
SP - Karen Chen, easily the best program of the American ladies, obviously she has been less consistent on the 3-3 but if she hits it then the score can be huge
LP - Mirai Nagasu, tech content allows her to have highest scoring ceiling (potentially for the SP too, but that program is much weaker and compares negatively to Medvedeva's same music choice, so this is her stronger event)

MEN:
SP + LP - It needs to be Nathan Chen.

DANCE:
SP - Shibutani/Shibutani, consistently the highest scoring SP of the American dance teams this season
LP - Hubbell/Donohue, the best regarded LP and they've been delivering

PAIRS:
SP + LP - We all know who.

I posted about it in a previous thread, but USA basically needs to get 1st in both segments of Men and 2nd in both segments of Ladies if they want to win the Team Event. I don't think there should be an excuse for Nathan Chen being too tired to do both team and individual, it's a 3 day gap between the Men's SP and LP for the team event and then a 4 day gap after that until the Men's individual SP. That is plenty of time to recover, only the Pairs have a legitimate argument about being too tired with how close their individual event is after the Team event, and last Olympics Stolbova/Klimov skated perfectly in the individual event after skating perfectly in the Team LP, so clearly it's not impossible. And we saw all of the top 3 Dance teams skating both events in 2014.

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Holy Cow, BoP. The USA Pairs program is really hampering the chances here. I had thought that maybe a good pairs team might not compete for a lower ranked team - or USA could sneak in front of someone else on the basis of errors... but I haven't done an in-depth analysis.

I take it you have - and these are your projections based on 3rd dance placements in both and a dismal pairs outlook?

I cant ever see Tennell after winning U.S Nationals handily, winning both programs, and being the one the USFSA seems to be hyping most now, ever being left out of the Team Event entirely. Frankly I will be a bit surprised if she doesnt end up skating both programs.

Tennell I believe hit 137 for her FS at SA...have any of the other two women ever gotten that high internationally?

Now, that likely still won’t be good enough for top 2 but...it might be enough to avoid ending up 5th...

For the SP I think 70 is out of reach for all 3 (someone like Chen *may* get there eventually but she is so up/down)...so I lean toward going with the most consistent here (which, once again, is Tennell).

R.D. said:

Tennell I believe hit 137 for her FS at SA...have any of the other two women ever gotten that high internationally?

Now, that likely still won’t be good enough for top 2 but...it might be enough to avoid ending up 5th...

For the SP I think 70 is out of reach for all 3 (someone like Chen *may* get there eventually but she is so up/down)...so I lean toward going with the most consistent here (which, once again, is Tennell).

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That plus I think they will almost certainly use 2 dance teams given they have 3 really strong teams. The only way they will use 2 women is if Chen really wants to do both programs. I think in the end the decision will be left up to Chen and whether he feels he can handle it and it is better preperation for his individual or better whether to save something. And whether they use Tennell for both programs or a 2nd women for one of the programs boils down to Chen more than the women itself.

TontoK said:

Holy Cow, BoP. The USA Pairs program is really hampering the chances here. I had thought that maybe a good pairs team might not compete for a lower ranked country - or USA could sneak in front of someone else on the basis of errors... but I haven't done an in-depth analysis.

I take it you have - and these are your projections based on 3rd dance placements in both and a dismal pairs outlook?

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Yes that projection is with the Dance teams going 3rd in both segments. For the USA Pair team, it's quite possible they won't finish higher than 6th in the SP (I think Savchenko/Massot will be competing in the Team event) or 4th in the LP: France should make this segment, so James/Cipres will be there, and Duhamel/Radford might skate the Team LP, because they are more likely to win that segment and don't want a lower SP placement to hurt their perception for the individual event.

USA placing 1st in both Men's segments, 2nd in both Ladies, 3rd in both Dance, and 6th + 4th in Pairs = 66 points.

Russia in comparison can very realistically place 3rd in both Men's segments, 1st in both Ladies, 4th in both Dance, and 3rd + 2nd in Pairs = 67 points.

So already with USA placing 1st in both Men's and 2nd in both Ladies (which would be a miraculous result), they need the Pair team to exceed expectations or Russia/Canada to falter somewhere in order to win Gold.

Canada is a wildcard to me right now because of Patrick Chan. Exactly what kind of condition is he going to be in? It's hard to project their point total at the moment because he could finish as low as 6th in the SP and 4th in the LP (or if they send a different guy to the LP, same story). It's also unclear how well Canada will perform in Ladies, Osmond is VERY likely to finish 2nd in the SP (although a big mistake could drop her down to 5th at worst), but much less likely to do that high of a LP placement. Canadian Pairs going 5th + 1st and then 2nd in both Dance segments would be a better result than Russia or USA for those events combined, but it won't gain them enough points on the field if their Singles skaters falter.

It will be a difficult road, but there is an actual opening for USA to win Gold, unlike in 2014. Bradie Tennell skating the Team Event would likely kill that possibility though, she has NO upside in her scoring potential. Yeah, she's consistent, but it would require all of the non-Russian Ladies to skate poorly in order for her to pull the necessary placements. She simply can't compete with the other ladies if they deliver and it's more likely that Karen Chen + Mirai Nagasu pull out great performances than it is for ALL of the Japanese, Canadian, and Italian ladies to do poorly.

Blades of Passion said:

For the highest chance of GOLD, United States team should be:

LADIES:
SP - Karen Chen, easily the best program of the American ladies, obviously she has been less consistent on the 3-3 but if she hits it then the score can be huge
LP - Mirai Nagasu, tech content allows her to have highest scoring ceiling (potentially for the SP too, but that program is much weaker and compares negatively to Medvedeva's same music choice, so this is her stronger event)

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Mirai may have a theoretical high score ceiling, but there is no evidence to suggest that she would achieve it. In her 10 years as a senior, she has never matched Bradie's Skate America LP score. I guess a lot of this comes down to where the USFSA feels they should take risks while mitigating the potential for poor results. The men and the ladies are the only events that a decision will have an impact in the final standing.

I would do:
Ladies:
SP - Karen Chen
FS - Bradie Tennell
Men:
SP - Nathen Chen
FS - Nathen Chen
Ice Dance:
SD - Shibsibs
FD - Hubbell/Donohue
Pairs:
SP - Smicema Knierim/Knierim
FS - Smicema Knierim/Knierim

drivingmissdaisy said:

Mirai may have a theoretical high score ceiling, but there is no evidence to suggest that she would achieve it. In her 10 years as a senior, she has never matched Bradie's Skate America LP score.

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That's irrelevant, because Bradie's best is not good enough to get Team USA the Gold. The top 3 countries in the Team Event are locked in for medals regardless, so they should be focusing on how they can try and win Gold. USA needs big placements from the Ladies for this to happen and only Karen and Mirai skating better than they ever have before will allow those placements to happen. We've seen people achieve this feat at the Olympics, it's not impossible and it's in fact what everyone dreams of and what most people train for.

Anyway, moving on from Team USA (someone should change the thread title so everyone can talk about everything Team Event related here), For the highest chance of GOLD, the Canadian team is very obvious:

MEN:
SP + LP - Patrick Chan

LADIES:
SP + LP - Kaetlyn Osmond

PAIRS:
SP + LP - Duhamel/Radford

DANCE:
SP + LP - Virtue/Moir

No split events for Canada at all if they want their highest chance to win. These people are all far and away ahead of the others in their category, any substitutions only hurts Canada's chances in the event.