Fantasy Oly team event - Team USA

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 10, 2018

Blades of Passion said:
That's irrelevant, because Bradie's best is not good enough to get Team USA the Gold. The top 3 countries in the Team Event are locked in for medals regardless, so they should be focusing on how they can try and win Gold. USA needs big placements from the Ladies for this to happen and only Karen and Mirai skating better than they ever have before will allow those placements to happen. We've seen people achieve this feat at the Olympics, it's not impossible and it's in fact what everyone dreams of and what most people train for.

I get what you're saying, I just don't think there is anyone Mirai would beat that Bradie wouldn't. Assuming Alina is untouchable, Mirai would still need mistakes from Kaetlyn and Carolina in the LP to overtake them, and if those two are off Bradie could beat them, too. I'd be more worried about downside with Mirai or Karen, as they have seen low scores this season, whereas Bradie has been very consistent.

WGloria · Jan 10, 2018

I wonder whether any of the men, would be willing to compete both the short and free programs, in both the team and individual events. The schedule is the least compatible with being able to deliver 4 performances in a row, with arguably the most important one, the individual free skate, coming last. For the men, the schedule would require 4 competition programs over a span of 9 days. That's a pretty big ask, especially at the Olympics.

Delivering under pressure has got to be a key consideration, or a country risks not advancing. For the US, ladies and dance are potential sources for concern in my opinion in this regard. The US ladies have mixed (Mirai, Karen) track records though at least some silver linings with Mirai strong at Four Continents and Karen pulling it together at Worlds. Bradie, we just don't have much to go on, though she seems "on a roll." In dance, when under pressure, Hubbell-Donohue had costly major errors in every major competition free dance last season, Chock-Bates had major costly errors at 2 out of 4 of the events (GPF and Worlds).

Blades of Passion · Jan 10, 2018

drivingmissdaisy said:
I get what you're saying, I just don't think there is anyone Mirai would beat that Bradie wouldn't. Assuming Alina is untouchable, Mirai would still need mistakes from Kaetlyn and Carolina in the LP to overtake them

No, Mirai with an 8 Triple LP beats many people that Bradie can not. Kaetlyn and Koster with small mistakes would still beat Bradie (and let's face it, they always make mistakes in the LP), but Mirai skating perfectly would overcome them. Kostner most likely won't be in the Team LP, though, it will be Satako Miyahara. Again there, an 8 Triple Mirai could be able to beat her, but Bradie will definitely not.

WGloria said:
I wonder whether any of the men, would be willing to compete both the short and free programs, in both the team and individual events. The schedule is the least compatible with being able to deliver 4 performances in a row, with arguably the most important one, the individual free skate, coming last. For the men, the schedule would require 4 competition programs over a span of 9 days. That's a pretty big ask, especially at the Olympics.

Most people skate multiple full programs every day of training. 4 performances in 9 days is not some amazingly hard thing. Worlds and the GPF used to require competitors to do 2 LP's in a shorter space of time than the gap they have for the Olympics.

Tahuu · Jan 13, 2018

Now all nationals are done, though we don't know where Yuzuru and Boyang are at. I think at best Team USA could only get is the bronze medal. Two dance teams and Adam are likely given the opportunity to be Olympic medalists and Bradie is more consistent than Mirai and Karen, so dance and men will be split.

SP (Nathan 9, S/S 8, Bradie 6, SK/K 5) + FS (Adam 6, H/D 9, Bradie 7, SK/K 7) = 57.

It will be very close to Team JPN (maybe 56). If Nathan or Bradie could beat their Japanese opponent once or Adam beats Boyang or Hanyan, Team USA will secure the bronze medal.

jenaj · Jan 13, 2018

R.D. said:
Tennell I believe hit 137 for her FS at SA...have any of the other two women ever gotten that high internationally?

Now, that likely still won’t be good enough for top 2 but...it might be enough to avoid ending up 5th...

For the SP I think 70 is out of reach for all 3 (someone like Chen *may* get there eventually but she is so up/down)...so I lean toward going with the most consistent here (which, once again, is Tennell).

Mirai has scored 73 internationally with her current short program. Glad to know Bradie is so "consistent" based on two competitions. I'm not saying she shouldn't skate in the team event or that she might not be everything she seems to be. But, to me, she is still something of an unknown quantity.

SnowWhite · Jan 14, 2018

jenaj said:
Mirai has scored 73 internationally with her current short program. Glad to know Bradie is so "consistent" based on two competitions. I'm not saying she shouldn't skate in the team event or that she might not be everything she seems to be. But, to me, she is still something of an unknown quantity.

It's not two competitions though. She was strong at both her summer comps, great at Lombardia, at Skate America and at Nationals.

Mrs. P · Jan 14, 2018

SnowWhite said:
It's not two competitions though. She was strong at both her summer comps, great at Lombardia, at Skate America and at Nationals.

And she's also 100 percent hit on all her 3z-3t attempts. That's 10 for 10 attrmpts. She is 4/5 on her 2a-3t, she got a ur at nationals on the 2a.

jenaj · Jan 14, 2018

SnowWhite said:
It's not two competitions though. She was strong at both her summer comps, great at Lombardia, at Skate America and at Nationals.

Maybe she's the new Yuna Kim with her 3lz-3T. Or maybe not. Her PCS at Lombardia was in the 6's and 7's, where it probably belongs.

Mathman · Jan 14, 2018

Tahuu said:
Now all nationals are done, though we don't know where Yuzuru and Boyang are at. I think at best Team USA could only get is the bronze medal. Two dance teams and Adam are likely given the opportunity to be Olympic medalists and Bradie is more consistent than Mirai and Karen, so dance and men will be split.

SP (Nathan 9, S/S 8, Bradie 6, SK/K 5) + FS (Adam 6, H/D 9, Bradie 7, SK/K 7) = 57.

It will be very close to Team JPN (maybe 56). If Nathan or Bradie could beat their Japanese opponent once or Adam beats Boyang or Hanyan, Team USA will secure the bronze medal.

Why take a chance? Put Nathan Chen in this spot and the odds go up dramatically in the USA's favor. (It is not a requirement that two disciplines be split.)

frida80 · Jan 15, 2018

jenaj said:
Maybe she's the new Yuna Kim with her 3lz-3T. Or maybe not. Her PCS at Lombardia was in the 6's and 7's, where it probably belongs.

She’s the brand new national champs ion, so she’ll get eights. If she’s clean again, her FS score should rise to 140-142. It’s just for PCS works.

frida80 · Jan 15, 2018

Mathman said:
Why take a chance? Put Nathan Chen in this spot and the odds go up dramatically in the USA's favor. (It is not a requirement that two disciplines be split.)

Because he won’t have enough time to recover for his own medal. The men’s event is only a few days after the team event. He’s a gold medal favorite right now, no reason for him to lose another medal.

jenaj · Jan 15, 2018

frida80 said:
She’s the brand new national champs ion, so she’ll get eights. If she’s clean again, her FS score should rise to 140-142. It’s just for PCS works.

Perhaps, but that's not where her PCS belongs. When I watched the exhibitions today I couldn't help but notice the passion Karen Chen puts into her performance and compare it to Bradie's basically forgettable skating.

andromache · Jan 15, 2018

Some of these team ideas seem like intentional sabotage. Nathan for both programs? Yeah, only if you want him to Yulia in the individual to take him out of contention there :laugh:

.

USFS shooting for impossible silver or gold will ruin their chances for Nathan to win an individual medal.

Let Miss Consistent Bradie skate both programs and gain some momentum going into the individual. Karen and Mirai are wild cards who haven't outskated Bradie all season. Judges like consistency even if fans don't care about it.

Two ice dance teams deserve to compete in the team event. Heck, all three deserve it, but let's at least give it to two. Shibs for SD and H/D for FD make the most sense, considering how it worked out at nationals. (Canada desperately needs US dance teams at their best in order to beat B/S, too, lol).

jenaj · Jan 15, 2018

andromache said:
Some of these team ideas seem like intentional sabotage. Nathan for both programs? Yeah, only if you want him to Yulia in the individual to take him out of contention there .

USFS shooting for impossible silver or gold will ruin their chances for Nathan to win an individual medal.

Let Miss Consistent Bradie skate both programs and gain some momentum going into the individual. Karen and Mirai are wild cards who haven't outskated Bradie all season. Judges like consistency even if fans don't care about it.

Two ice dance teams deserve to compete in the team event. Heck, all three deserve it, but let's at least give it to two. Shibs for SD and H/D for FD make the most sense, considering how it worked out at nationals. (Canada desperately needs US dance teams at their best in order to beat B/S, too, lol).

Mirai only competed against Bradie once this season. I think the same is true of Karen, too. I really don't care who skates in the team event. The best the US can hope for is bronze. It's kind of a joke anyway with Russia supposedly banned but still having a team "from Russia."

Sam-Skwantch · Jan 15, 2018

andromache said:
Some of these team ideas seem like intentional sabotage. Nathan for both programs? Yeah, only if you want him to Yulia in the individual to take him out of contention there .

:roll5:

Tahuu · Jan 15, 2018

Mathman said:
Why take a chance? Put Nathan Chen in this spot and the odds go up dramatically in the USA's favor. (It is not a requirement that two disciplines be split.)

I would agree with you to have Nathan skate both Team SP and FS, but he/Raf/USFS may not want to. I guess Boyang won't do both either. Han Yan was not very consistent with his 3A and quads, so Adam has a chance to beat him and earn an extra point for Team USA. The best scores of Team JPN may be as follows.

SP (Hanyu 10, Miyahara 8, Muramoto/Reed 5, Suzaki/Kihara 2) + FS (Uno 10, Sakamoto 8, M/R 7, S/K 6) = 56

However, Miyahara may get 7, losing to the Russian, Canadian and Italian, and Muramoto/Reed could get 4, losing to Wang/Liu of China, as both teams are fairly equal. In that case, Team JPN might not even qualify for the FS. Therefore, Hanyu may have to skate the team SP to get his feet wet. If he is rusty, Nathan might have a chance to beat him. All things considered, Team USA has better odds to get the bronze and give Adam the Olympic gay medalist a resume for 2018 DWTS!

skatefan17 · Jan 15, 2018

My team:
Pairs- K/K
Men: Chen sp / Zhou lp
Ladies: Tennell both
Ice dance: S/S short / H/D long

bobbob · Jan 15, 2018

If doing as good as possible in the team event is the goal
Men: Chen both programs
Ladies: Tennell both programs
Pairs: SK/K
Dance: Shibutanis short, H/D long
Now obviously we don't want to exhaust Chen for both programs...so we could switch in Zhou but that would surely reduce the team's performance... Tennell won't medal anyways...so I guess she can do both, though I would like to see mirai get a chance...

corynna · Jan 15, 2018

US:
Men: Chen - SP; Rippon - FP. The best would be for Chen to do both, but this will leave him too tired for the individual event I guess. As he is a medal contender, I assume they will replace him with Rippon for the FP.
Ladies: Bradie - both . She is the most consistent of the ladies. Also her chances for an individual medal are very low, so she is a better asset in the team event.
Pairs: SK/K both
Dance: Shibs- SD, H/D FD

R.D. · Jan 15, 2018

jenaj said:
...I really don't care who skates in the team event. The best the US can hope for is bronze. It's kind of a joke anyway with Russia supposedly banned but still having a team "from Russia."

So "Russia" is eligible for the team event after all? :scratch2:

I don't think that was ever cleared up...

Fantasy Oly team event - Team USA

drivingmissdaisy

WGloria

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

Tahuu

jenaj

SnowWhite

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

jenaj

Mathman

frida80

frida80

jenaj

andromache

jenaj

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”

Tahuu

skatefan17

bobbob

corynna

R.D.

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