Form the Olympic National Teams - Ladies

millie said:

You are missing my point, which is " why leave Canada out of the post when Russia is not included in the Olympics. Why not say "which Russian ladies do you think will compete under the Neutral flag...Which is reality.. IMO..

Click to expand...

And you're missing my point which is this:

yoloaxel said:

I only put USA, Japan and Russia ladies here since the other countries' choices will mostly be straightforward.

Click to expand...

Canada's choices are the most straightforward of them all. There's no discussion to be had.

I’m sure no one meant anything by leaving Canada out, other than Canada’s team seems unlikely to vary at least for the women. It’s a pretty well accepted pecking order of katelyn Osmond, Gaby Daleman, and alaine Chartrand. (Sorry auto correct was giving me fits writing their names.)

The top two spots for an Olympic athlete from Russia seem pretty solid, but thee are many that could make a run for it, and I would love to see Elena. She was just too young for the last one, although I just hope everyone does a nice job.

I think of the Americans that Bradie has a slight edge, but really anything could happen. We don’t have nearly as form competitors at the top - although certainly didn’t think I’d be saying this 2 years ago with Gracie and Ashley and Polina. 2 years ago it would have felt like a solid obvious team like Canada.

What I think:
Japan:
Higuchi Miyahara
Russia:
Medvedeva Zagitova Sotskova
USA:
Wagner Chen Tennell

what I want:
Japan:
Mihara Sakamoto (yeah, won't happen)
Russia:
Medvedeva Zagitova Tsurskaya
USA:
Wagner Chen Tennell (anyone apart from that ... vastly overrated Nagasu).

TerpsichoreFS said:

Only if her name is Gabby Daleman... you realized that what you were saying did not make sense so you pretend only gabby Daleman can do it but we both know it is not true. I agree Karen does seem to struggle with growth, but her skating does not need improvement to be great. And yes, she's not miles ahead of the others, she is only much better than them. As for Ashley, it's the media thing. Without her it would seem so empty.

Only time will tell who is right, you or me. But I honestly cannot believe Karen will be fighting for a spot.

She has so much potential. I don't necessarily think top 3 should go. It's just the one competition, although I understand the need for people to have a clear cut selection criteria, it is not that simple.

Click to expand...

If Karen doesn't up her game from what she's shown so far, she won't be sent (unless everyone bombs Nats, which I hope doesn't happen). Bradie's been by far the strongest US lady this season, and she's had good competition after good competition since June. Minimal mistakes across 3 (?) summer comps, a Challenger and a GP. Nationals will be more pressure, but she did fine with the increased pressure/attention at SA. If she skates like she has been, she'll be on the team. Especially with the team event - her consistency is a big asset for that. So that's one spot.

As much as Ashley's struggled this year, she beat Karen at Skate Canada and in the SP at Skate America. And if she finishes top 3, there's no way she's getting bumped for anyone.

And then Mirai. She beat Karen the US Classic and Japan Open. She was quite a bit stronger at NHK than Karen was at SA. And if she manages top 3 at Nats, I doubt the USFSA wants to bump her a 2nd time. I don't think there would be a justification for it - Karen hasn't been nearly impressive enough to rely on body of work. She has to skate well at Nats.

If Karen delivers at Nats like she did last year, she should definitely go. But there's not a good argument to putting her on the team if she misses top 3 imo. She doesn't have anywhere near the body of work that Ashley did in 2014.

According to a poster with access to the members section of the website, they have stated that they are also going to look at the trajectory of scores over the course of the season.

Athletes shall be selected based upon performance(s) in the events below. The events have been stratified into tiers from the highest value events in Tier 1 through the lowest value events in Tier 3. Events within each tier shall be evaluated at equal weight.

Click to expand...

Tier 1
- 2018 U.S. Figure Skating Championships - TBD
- 2018 ISU Grand Prix Final - N/A
- 2017 ISU World Figure Skating Championships - Karen (4th, ~14 points away from 3rd), Ashley (7th, ~20 points from 3rd), Mariah (12th)
Tier 2
- 2017 Grand Prix Series Competitions Bradie (3rd, 204.10), Ashley (3rd, 183.94, WD), Courtney (4th, 182.57), Mirai (9th, 4th, 178.25, 194.46), Karen (7th, 8th, 170.40, 182.80), Mariah (6th, 9th, 188.56, 166.04), Polina (10th, 157.77), Amber (9th, 151.14)
- 2017 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships - Mirai (3rd), Mariah (6th), Karen (12th)
Tier 3
- 2017 Challenger Series Events and other senior international competitions - Bradie (4th, 196.70), Mirai (2nd, 183.54), Karen (3rd, 182.32), Angela (4th, 5th, 183.85, 160.04), Courtney (4th, 3rd, 174.16, 165.39), Caroline (6th, 4th, 167.95, 170.82), Amber (8th, 149.96)
- 2017 U.S. Figure Skating Championships - Karen (1st), Ashley (2nd), Mariah (3rd), Mirai (4th), Caroline (5th), Angela (7th), Amber (8th), Bradie (9th), Courtney (12th)
- 2017 World Junior Figure Skating Championships - Bradie (7th), Starr (12th)
- 2017 ISU Junior Grand Prix Final - N/A

Back in 2014, Ashley had bronze at the GPF, gold and silver at her GPs, 5th at Worlds 2013, and was National champ in 2013. A much stronger body of work than Karen has.

And my picks for the teams:

Russia - Evgenia Medvedeva, Alina Zagitova, Maria Sotskova (my preference would be Polina T. over Alina, but Alina absolutely deserves it)

Japan - Satoko Miyahara, Wakaba Higuchi

USA - Bradie Tennell, Ashley Wagner, Mirai Nagasu (if Karen delivers at Nats, her instead of Mirai)

millie said:

You are missing my point, which is " why leave Canada out of the post when Russia is not included in the Olympics. Why not say "which Russian ladies do you think will compete under the Neutral flag...Which is reality.. IMO..

Click to expand...

I literally wrote 'Olympic Atheltes of Russia' which is the name they will be competing under?????? I didn't put Canada because I think the team is more obvious than the other three, but feel free to make their team too

Karen does have higher quality when she hits, but when she doesn't she isn't any better than the other top US ladies IMO. when she's on she' s wonderful to watch. I think the only way she will be on the team is if she skates well and gets top 3. I really don't think they would take her if she's any lower, since her results this season have been very lackluster. but I feel the same way for all of the US ladies...I think they will stick with the top 3 unless a big name such as Ashley gets 4th by a hair. then we might see something different.

deneuved said:

(anyone apart from that useless and vastly overrated Nagasu).

Click to expand...

I think everyone has a right to their opinions but often times I find that especially skaters fans can be a bit harsh? Passionate but harsh! I include myself in that statement. All of these skaters work hard and maybe the results do not show it but I feel as fans we can often take that for granted. I know personally, I am trying not to write off the hard work that these skaters have put into their careers despite my personal opinions (or even facts seen in results!) and be more supportive.

Japan - Will be devastating but I think it will be the following:
1. Satoko Miyahara
2. Wakaba Higuchi

but if Higuchi is in third and Mai Mihara or Kaori Sakamoto are above her, I could see the fed passing Wakaba Higuchi

What I want:
1. Mai Mihara
2. a) Marin Honda b)Kaori Sakamoto c)Wakaba Higuchi in that order...

I think Miyahara is AMAZING - but her unders are prevalent and she has been blessed with kind callers.

Russia
1. Evgenia Medvedeva
2. Alina Zagitova
3. Maria Sotskova

Dark Horse: Polina Tsurskaya
I wish Anna Pogorilaya would get it together but she might be too far gone (in terms of consistency) to have the Russian fed support her even with a stand out performance at nationals.

United States
Top 3 @ Nationals. So hard to predict since our ladies are all over the place but I think (more like guess):
Ashley Wagner / Bradie Tennell / Mirai Nagasu

What I want:
Mirai Nagasu / Karen Chen / Ashley Wagner

Japan:
1. Satoko Miyahara - barring a disaster at Nationals her components are on another level compared to other Japanese ladies (at least in the judges' eyes).
2. Wakaba Higuchi/Mai Mihara - whoever places higher at Nationals. Their GP scores are already fairly close and Mai has a secret 3-5 point weapon in a clean SP.

Russia ("Olympic Athletes from Russia")
1. Evgenia Medvedeva - the unbeatable titan. If she's fully recovered OGM is probably a lock.
2. Alina Zagitova - also undefeated. PCS is lower than Medvedeva but her TES is higher than anyone else.
3. Maria Sotskova - surprisingly consistent. Not the best tano position or programs but manages to deliver clean performances.

USA:
1. Ashley Wagner - she may have UR issues but she seems to be favored more than other US skaters by judges.
2/3 Mirai Nagasu/Bradie Tennell/Karen Chen - whoever skates better at Nationals. Bradie is very promising but might falter at Nationals. Karen managed to pull off semi-clean performances towards the end of last season so maybe she'll peak at the right time again. Mirai's 3A is a question mark in terms of total TES benefit.

Shayuki said:

So who do you have in mind? Larkyn Austman? Chartrand would probably outscore her even with like 6 falls.

Click to expand...

Yeah, Larkyn has a small chance, but when they both didn't skate very well at Skate Canada, Alaine still outscored her.

tosca said:

I wish Anna Pogorilaya would get it together but she might be too far gone (in terms of consistency) to have the Russian fed support her even with a stand out performance at nationals.

Click to expand...

Have there been any updates on how she's doing? I wonder if she's healing her back resting or is training to some extent.

macy said:

Have there been any updates on how she's doing? I wonder if she's healing her back resting or is training to some extent.

Click to expand...

she's out of competition for the rest of the season, unfortunately - there's an update in State of Russian Ladies skating thread, Anna's FF and Russian Nationals thread

skatefan17 said:

I hope US sends Ashley, Bradie and Mirai.

Click to expand...

my hope is that all 3 with really prove themselves at upcoming Nationals and quench those spots to avoid any bigger controversies - because to be honest, they are my favourite US Ladies team for Olympics

Japan
Wakaba Higuchi
Mai Mihara
(Can Canada give their third useless spot to Japan please? They need it more...)

Russia
Evgenia Medvedeva
Maria Sotskova
Alina Zagitova (alt: Lena)

USA
Ashley Wagner
Mirai Nagasu
Karen Chen

Isn't North Korea probably giving it's skating spot to Japan??? Am I wrong to assume that? I thought I read that somewhere...

Well, with the current situation this is what I think:

Japan:
1. Satoko
2. Wakaba/Mai/Kaori (whoever does better at Nationals...I would say Wakaba but after GPF I'm not totally sure)
3. (If what I remember happens) Wakaba/Mai/Kaori

Russia:
1. Medvedeva
2. Zagitova
3. Sotskova

US:
Top three at nationals, the only exception being if Ashley is in 4th and a point behind someone like Starr Andrews/Emmy Ma

Who I want:

Japan:
1. Wakaba
2. Satoko
3. (If they end up getting a 3rd spot...) Mai

Russia:
1. Medvedeva
2. Tuktamysheva
3. Sakhanovich

USA:
1. Mirai Nagasu
2. Bradie Tennell
3. Ashley Wagner

rlopen said:

Isn't North Korea probably giving it's skating spot to Japan??? Am I wrong to assume that? I thought I read that somewhere...

Well, with the current situation this is what I think:

Japan:
1. Satoko
2. Wakaba/Mai/Kaori (whoever does better at Nationals...I would say Wakaba but after GPF I'm not totally sure)
3. (If what I remember happens) Wakaba/Mai/Kaori

Russia:
1. Medvedeva
2. Zagitova
3. Sotskova

US:
Top three at nationals, the only exception being if Ashley is in 4th and a point behind someone like Starr Andrews/Emmy Ma

Who I want:

Japan:
1. Wakaba
2. Satoko
3. (If they end up getting a 3rd spot...) Mai

Russia:
1. Medvedeva
2. Tuktamysheva
3. Sakhanovich

USA:
1. Mirai Nagasu
2. Bradie Tennell
3. Ashley Wagner

Click to expand...

That's in pairs...

NoNameFace said:

she's out of competition for the rest of the season, unfortunately - there's an update in State of Russian Ladies skating thread, Anna's FF and Russian Nationals thread

Click to expand...

just read this on TSL, sad but can't say I didn't see it coming this is such a depressing season. hope she does what's best for her physically and mentally.

Spirals for Miles said:

That's in pairs...

Click to expand...

Oops my bad...I think I'm just gonna go hide somewhere now...

Russia
1. Medvedeva
2. Zagitova
3. Sotskova (Consistent, great jumps, match Medvedeva's jumps difficulty with her content and tanos)

Japan
1. Miyahara (she's a lock)
2. Higuchi (because she's my star)

US
1. Tennell (good content, consistent)
2. Nagasu (highest BVs, but always some URs))
3. Wagner (she has the fed love)

blue_idealist said:

Yeah, Larkyn has a small chance, but when they both didn't skate very well at Skate Canada, Alaine still outscored her.

Click to expand...

Where is Veronik Mallet btw?