2018 Russian Ladies JGP Team?

I know it's a bit early for this, but I didn't want it to hog the Russian Ladies thread and there will be a lot to post after Junior Nationals this week!
So this year's JGP girls:
Alexandra Trusova
Alena Kostornaya
Anastasia Tarakanova
Daria Panenkova
Sofia Samodurova
Anastasia Gulyakova
Stanislava Konstantinova
Alisa Fedichkina
Anastasia Gubanova

Panenkova has the SB to definitely be guaranteed a GP assignment, if not 2, so I think she will move up. Konstantinova has succeeded at the senior level domestically and is the first substitute to Olympics and Worlds, so I think she will also move up as well. Samodurova, Fedichkina, Gulyakova, and Gubanova are question marks. They will be senior eligible next year (Fedichkina was this year as well) but don't have the SB for it, plus the first two of that list won't be at Junior Nationals, so there's no chance of them being sent to JWC and improving their SB. However, although there's not much room at the top, there's even less room in juniors. So they might move up.

This leaves this year's list as follows, for next year:
Alexandra Trusova
Alena Kostornaya
Anastasia Tarakanova

Other prominent juniors that they will probably be joined by include:
Anna Shcherbakova (just did well at her competition with clean skate, including 3Lz-3Lo! will probably get a JGP spot)
Viktoria Vasilieva
Elizaveta Nugumanova (?-->not sure how she's doing since coaching change, will see this week)
Alena Kanysheva
Anastasia Kostyuk

I would have also included Ekaterina Kurakova but she's not nominated for junior nationals despite qualifying so her only chance is Moscow Open Cup next year.

There's not much room besides that but other girls that might improve rapidly and do well at Moscow Open Cup:
Diana Guseva
Valeria Emelyanova

Obviously, not all of these talented ladies will be able to be on the JGP. So who do you think will be given a spot and fight for a second next year?

All Eteri's girls mentioned above will have their chance at JGP

3 eteri girls is fixed in unless injury/bombing badly in test skates, also added in will be
- Scherbakova
- Tarusina (she's age eligible for senior but not yet have JGP debut)
- Kanysheva
- Guliakova (she only had 1 JGP and not yet performed to her potential)
- Gubanova (if didnt get to JWC i think she will stay and do some challenger series with Guliakova)

Vasilieva and Nugumanova also may get JGP too, they are substitute for last year. Also Kostyuk is she good enough?

Okay. Junior nationals is over. *breathes sigh*
Top girls who will definitely move to seniors next year:
Panenkova
Konstantinova

Girls who might move to seniors next year:
Gubanova
Samodurova
Nugumanova
Gulyakova
Tarusina

If NONE of those four move up, I think the JGP team, initially, will be:
Trusova
Kostornaya
Tarakanova
Gubanova
Samodurova
Vasilieva

If ALL of them move up, I think it will be:
Trusova
Kostornaya
Tarakanova
Vasilieva
Kanysheva
Shcherbakova
Sinitsyna

I wish that these girls could get JGPs but it seems unlikely:
Kostyuk
Kurakova
Safonova
Emelyanova

I wish these girls would go senior but it's unlikely:
Tarusina
Gubanova
Gulyakova
Nugumanova
Samodurova

Big question mark:
Shcherbakova and her comeback from injury

Bumping up this thread since it's the hot topic in State of Russian Ladies Skating currently
Konstantinova has 199.68 SB from Golden Spin which is world #16 at the moment
Panenkova has 196.55 SB from JGP Riga which is world #21 at the moment
Both of them should qualify for at least 1 GP assignment (not that many skaters below that can knock them out of top 24) and thus it's fairly safe to assume they turn senior.

Rostelecom host spot -- Hoping that Gubanova can get this, but it looks like at least 5 other main contenders are in the running: Samodurova (world #26 in SB, so just outside the bubble for automatic GP qualification), Tarusina, Gulyakova, and among current seniors, Sakhanovich is on the comeback path and could be competitive next season. Mikhailova (ABBA girl) also could be in the running and was the host pick this season.

+1 on the lists. The likelihood of the following to turn senior IMO is in this order:
1. Samodurova -- could get Rostelecom host spot, so close to qualifying for senior GP. Really hoping that she will move into CS competitions as she can earn a GP spot via that route the following season.
2. Gubanova -- should have gotten 3rd place at Jr Nats and JWC. If she had, she could have a route to qualify for GP, but as it is, she and Sonya should be the front runners for the Rostelecom host spot.
3. Gulyakova -- needs the 3A to propel herself into the top of the juniors
4. Tarusina -- pity that she missed her JGP debut. Hoping she can get JGP next season and do well enough to turn senior the following year
5. Nugumanova -- UR's have been costing her points, thus hasn't been able to place well domestically or internationally

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And for JGP -- assuming Samodurova and Gubanova turn senior and 15 JGP spots, then Russia will end up with 6 girls who can do 2 JGP's and 3 girls with 1 JGP = 9 girls total. Going in descending order of Jr Nats placement:
1. Trusova
2. Kostornaia
3. Vasilieva
4. Tarakanova
5. Kanysheva
6. Sinitsyna
7. Gulyakova
8. Nugumanova
9. Let's put Shcherbakova here instead of Kostyuk for now, assuming her potential to score will be higher if not injured

Then the remaining question is what to do with Tarusina, who didn't compete at Jr Nats but did creditably well at Senior Nats. She might bump Nugumanova, possibly?

How many spots they would have for next season seniors? Would Leonova, Tuktamysheva, Radionova, Pogorilaya, Tsurskaya, Sakhanovich qualify or not? How many of them would retire? Depending on answers to these quations we can deduce how many juniors can be moved to seniors and begin to ponder who they can be. And only after that we can begin to discuss JGP slots etc. - else it's all would remain useless speculation.

Each country is limited to a max of 3 spots per GP, so the hard limit on senior GP spots for Russia would be 3 x 6 = 18.
In practice, not all host countries might necessarily wish to extend 3 spots to Russians (e.g. this season, there were 2 Russian ladies at Skate Canada, so 17 spots).
If there are 17 spots again next year, that would allow for 8 skaters with 2 GP assignments + 1 skater with 1 GP.

So the senior ladies who will qualify via the various routes are:
1. Seeded skaters (1-6 in Worlds) -- Zagitova and Medvedeva are highly likely to end up in this category and thus qualify for 2 events in a seeded draw. Sotskova could potentially end up in this category also.
2. Invited skaters (7-12 in Worlds) -- If Sotskova is not in the Seeded Skaters group, it's fairly likely that she will be in the Invited Skaters group.
3. Top 24 World Standings -- Pogorilaya is currently sitting in 8th, so at the end of this season, she's likely to remain within the world's top 24. Radionova (#19) and Tuktamysheva (#21) currently also are within this range plus well within range for top 24 season's best.
4. Top 24 Season's Best -- Tsurskaya (#9), Konstantinova (#16), and Panenkova (#21) add to the above list.

This brings us to a total of 9 skaters who satisfy the criteria for guaranteed GP spots (two guaranteed for seeded skaters, and at least 1 guaranteed for the rest).
So assuming no retirements, anyone else who wants to move up will only get a chance to participate in GP if a Russian skater with an assigned GP withdraws (e.g. when Sakhanovich replaced Pogorilaya at Skate America this season). The alternates are invited in order of SB up to the top 75 SB, so the pecking order among the ladies who didn't qualify outright is Samodurova (#26) , Leonova (#27), Sakhanovich (#29), Mikhailova (#32), Gulyakova (#38), Fedichkina (#40), Anastasia Gracheva (#60), Gubanova (#67).

Anyone assigned to JGP cannot participate in senior GP in the same season, and thus would drop out of the alternates list (e.g. this season, Konstantinova lost her chance of being called up as a GP alternate despite having higher SB in 16/17 season than Sakhanovich, due to her JGP assignment).

Leonova is unlikely to be a factor here since she didn't qualify for GP, regardless of whether she retires or not. But it appears that retirements / withdrawals among the 9 qualifying skaters will be needed in order to open up even the Rostelecom host spot. So any talk of Samodurova / Gulyakova / Gubanova moving up will need to be with the assumption that they will get CS but not necessarily GP assignments.

Lastly -- because Gubanova is so far down the list by SB, unless she gets to go to JWC to improve her SB, it's likely that JGP + CS could be an option next season. She can get up to 6 comps (2 JGP + JGPF + 3 CS) to get an SB to qualify for senior GP.

Trusova
Kostornaia
Tarakanova
Kanysheva
Vasilieva
Guliakova

Almost fixed to get JGP i think because, the latter 2 because their success in Junior nats and past achievement in JGP circuit. The other likely skaters to get is:

Sinitsina
Tarusina
Kostyuk
Nugumanova

Gubanova and Samodurova is currently unknown but if they didnt move up they will get JGP spot for sure. They are frontrunners for CoR host pick like other has said but there is probability Konstantinova get host pick as she was only guaranteed 1 GP and she is very loved by Rus Fed... so the girls that will move up to senior is 2 which is Panenkova and Konstantinova, would make seniot GP battle look like this

Medvedeva
Zagitova
Sotskova
Tsurskaya
Tuktamysheva
Radionova
Panenkova
Konstantinova

They are the most likely to get 2 GP and already guaranteed 1 based on SB/WS

Sakhanovich
Leonova
Mikhailova

Not yet qualify for GP but can get 1 invitation maybe? Also Pogorilaya should got 2 unless she retire/WD

I think it will be 5 Eteri's girls with 2 events (Kostornaya, Trusova, Tarakanova, Shcherbakova, Panenkova) and other 3 girls with 1 event, one of which will get 2nd event. If Panenkova will get senior GP event, it will be 4 girls with 1 event, two of which will get 2nd event. For this 3-4 spots main contenders are Gubanova, Samodurova, Gulyakova, Kanysheva, Vasilieva. Next come Nugumanova, Sinitsyna, Kurakova, Kostyuk and maybe Tarusina. Uff, so much contenders.

One more thing: the assumption made earlier that the Rostelecom host spot could be up for grabs between Samodurova / Gubanova was also assuming that Pogorilaya may choose to skip the 2018/19 GP season if she is not fully recovered / back to form.

If Pogorilaya skips an entire season using injury as the reason, she can still have a door back into GP in 2019/2020 (if fit) through the Come-Back Skaters route, as she was seeded twice in the past 10 years (WC 4th in 2013-14 and WC 3rd in 2015-16). But if she competes and has a poor season in 2018-19, she could drop out of GP qualification altogether as her 2015-16 points would go away and thus her WS would drop dramatically. So, tactically it is more favourable to Pogorilaya to come back only when she is fully fit and competitive.

kalee said:

One more thing: the assumption made earlier that the Rostelecom host spot could be up for grabs between Samodurova / Gubanova was also assuming that Pogorilaya may choose to skip the 2018/19 GP season if she is not fully recovered / back to form.

If Pogorilaya skips an entire season using injury as the reason, she can still have a door back into GP in 2019/2020 (if fit) through the Come-Back Skaters route, as she was seeded twice in the past 10 years (WC 4th in 2013-14 and WC 3rd in 2015-16). But if she competes and has a poor season in 2018-19, she could drop out of GP qualification altogether as her 2015-16 points would go away and thus her WS would drop dramatically. So, tactically it is more favourable to Pogorilaya to come back only when she is fully fit and competitive.

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But doesn’t the Come-Back Skaters rule only apply if the skater hasn’t competed at all in the season after? Pogorilaya already competed this season at Skate Canada.

randomfan said:

But doesn’t the Come-Back Skaters rule only apply if the skater hasn’t competed at all in the season after? Pogorilaya already competed this season at Skate Canada.

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I think Kalee is speaking about the season after next. If Pogo doesn't compete next season (due to injury), the following one she can use the come back skater rule.

Samodurova is the biggest question mark for me. She’s consistent, but the jumps aren’t the best. They look a bit labored. And she’s never been to junior worlds. She isn’t the federation’s favorite.

Bluediamonds09 said:

Samodurova is the biggest question mark for me. She’s consistent, but the jumps aren’t the best. They look a bit labored. And she’s never been to junior worlds. She isn’t the federation’s favorite.

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There are rumors that she is willing to switch to Israil flag. I don't know how they are credible though.

Elucidus said:

There are rumors that she is willing to switch to Israil flag. I don't know how they are credible though.

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that would be great for both her and Israeli skating! not only does she have more competitive opportunities, Israel would then have a great ladies skater!

Spirals for Miles said:

that would be great for both her and Israeli skating! not only does she have more competitive opportunities, Israel would then have a great ladies skater!

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Yes!!!! Don’t wanna get my hopes up, but i would love for Samodurova to have the opportunity to compete more. And getting out of Russia is tough. I wish Guliakova could do the same thing because she is all but forgotten by the fans and her federation. I see zero opportunities for her.

skatenewbie said:

Vasilieva and Nugumanova also may get JGP too, they are substitute for last year. Also Kostyuk is she good enough?

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Kostyuk is great, the best skater Panova currently has (i wouldn't be surprised if she switches to Eteri as Tarakanova did), she should get at least one JGP competition.

Bluediamonds09 said:

Samodurova is the biggest question mark for me. She’s consistent, but the jumps aren’t the best. They look a bit labored. And she’s never been to junior worlds. She isn’t the federation’s favorite.

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She is will be 16 in July, she should move to seniors.

Tolstoj said:

Kostyuk is great, the best skater Panova currently has (i wouldn't be surprised if she switches to Eteri as Tarakanova did), she should get at least one JGP competition.

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kanysheva is clearly the best panova girl. kostyuk is very inconsistent, she never skates clean. so i doubt that eteri are willing to take her (with panova tarakanova skated clean at least half of the times)

Bluediamonds09 said:

Yes!!!! Don’t wanna get my hopes up, but i would love for Samodurova to have the opportunity to compete more.

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Same for me but I'd wish the same for many others. But it sure is an interesting and exciting thing to think about.. :luv17:

tjb said:

kanysheva is clearly the best panova girl. kostyuk is very inconsistent, she never skates clean. so i doubt that eteri are willing to take her (with panova tarakanova skated clean at least half of the times)

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But Eteri can give Kostyuk consistency; it's the only thing she needs