The Dreaded 2022 Predictions

I'm most familiar with men's figure skating so it'll be the only discipline that I'll predict.

1. Boyang Jin/ Shoma Uno
2. Boyang Jin/ Shoma Uno
3. Dimitri Aliev/ Jun-hwan Cha

Bonus: Yuzuru Hanyu will be living his best life, both on and off the ice. Vanessa and Morgan will hopefully win a worlds medal or two...

The prevailing winds of ice dancing will shift. I don't see any one team, including P/C, dominating all four years (if they continue).

Pairs will become a fan favorite. The US will finally have a team that is a podium threat, although maybe not until 2020. Sui/Han will become legends.

Reputation judging will continue unabated despite rule changes.

New Russian senior women will emerge and eclipse the current group. I don't see a repeat for Zagitova.

Nathan Chen will dominate going into the next OGs

Top US women will be Bradie Tennell, Karen Chen, and Starr Andrews, but they will still have a lot of catching up the Russian and Japanese skaters.

Mirai Nagasu will be missing from FB and Twitter during the games, as she'll be practicing for Dancing With The Stars.


Ashley Wagner and Adam Rippon will become successful commentators, but finish second in the ratings to Lipinski/Weir. Ashley will be "furious.....just furious!" about the ratings.

Okay, since this is sort of a game of buy/sell/hold and everyone is buying Nathan Chen, I’m selling, at least for the next three years. He’s yet to have a plateau or any serious setbacks in his winning streak, which is inevitable, so while I predict he finishes on the podium in 2022, I am definitely not predicting a dominant pre-OG four years.

Choosing the hold position on Chen, with prediction that he medals, but doesn't win in 2022.

Choosing buy position for Jun Hwa Chan.

Metis said:

yet to have a plateau or any serious setbacks in his winning streak, which is inevitable

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuna_Kim

chopinskate said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuna_Kim

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Exceptions and rules. She was also ineligible from competing in the 2006 OWG, in which case she probably-not-but-it’s-always-possible might have imploded.

And she had a far higher hit rate on the axel than Chen does now.

I’m sticking with sell.

sasha trusova will break all the records in ladies, and becomes the first lady who lands 4T, 4Lz, 4F, 4Lo and a various 4-3 combinations
quads will be allowed in the ladies sp and PCS coefficients will rise, and my baby will recieve all the PCS in the world, while the haters will be crying about the death of ladies figure skating and the artistry in it

Hanyu wins his third OGM with a 4A.
Five minutes into retirement, he marries Evgenia. Unsatisfied with newlywed life, they compete as pair skaters for Japan. They are 100% consistent in their triple triple triple combinations. The Medvedeva/Hanyu pair alternate throw quad jumps and do sbs ina bauer, Biellmann, and Hydroblade.

moonkat said:

Hanyu wins his third OGM with a 4A.
Five minutes into retirement, he marries Evgenia. Unsatisfied with newlywed life, they compete as pair skaters for Japan. They are 100% consistent in their triple triple triple combinations. The Medvedeva/Hanyu pair alternate throw quad jumps and do sbs ina bauer, Biellmann, and Hydroblade.

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Sounds legit :thumbsup:

tjb said:

sasha trusova will break all the records in ladies, and becomes the first lady who lands 4T, 4Lz, 4F, 4Lo and a various 4-3 combinations
quads will be allowed in the ladies sp and PCS coefficients will rise, and my baby will recieve all the PCS in the world, while the haters will be crying about the death of ladies figure skating and the artistry in it

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It'll be interesting to see which lady manages to be the first one to perform a clean quad in an international competition. One of the most interesting things for the future quadrant.

Ah, also, for the specific quads of course.

Jun Hwan Cha on the podium. (extremely hopeful thinking here.)
Shoma Uno back on the podium.
Boyang Jin clutch for gold, provided Hanyu isn't there. And he very well might be.

Thinking about ladies up-and-comers makes my head hurt.

Sui/Han gold medal
Papadakis/Cizeron, Gilles/Poirier podium

moonkat said:

Hanyu wins his third OGM with a 4A.
Five minutes into retirement, he marries Evgenia. Unsatisfied with newlywed life, they compete as pair skaters for Japan. They are 100% consistent in their triple triple triple combinations. The Medvedeva/Hanyu pair alternate throw quad jumps and do sbs ina bauer, Biellmann, and Hydroblade.

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This is the best timeline.

All it needs is Hanyu doing this to Medvedeva’s Usagi: https://youtu.be/l7qO5ED3Hps

For all the men, if you all want the gold, please don't win the Olympic test event in Beijing a year befor the Olympic. It's even better when you get the silver.

The curse repeate itself.
-2009 4CC Vancouver, Patrick Chan won the gold, a year later he ended up off podium and silver medalist Lysacek won the OGM.
-2013 GPF Sochi, Takahashi won the gold, a year later he ended up off podium and silver medalist Hanyu won the OGM
-2017 4CC Gangneung,PyongChang, Nathan Chen won the gold, a year later he endep up off podium and silver medalist Hanyu won the OGM.

Thing geting so real and scary...

If we go back 4 years we can see how our possible predictions worked out in 2018.

Ladies: Alina Zagitova was 11 years old. I don't think anyone predicted she would be the next Olympic champion.

Men: Hanyu won the gold medal in Sochi and had not yet reached his potential. A reasonable pick to repeat in Pyeongchang.

Pairs: Savchenko and Szolkowy ended their partnership in 2014. They're done.

Dance: Virtue and Moir "retired." Chock and Bates were briefly regarded as #1. Papadakis and Czizeron got 13th at 2014 Worlds.

anyanka said:

I don't know what you're smoking but I want some too ...

Also, seeing how Zhenya went bonkers when she went EXO, they won't just skate to the music: they will hire EXO to perform LIVE during the performance, with a guest rap from C.L. about the sheer magical genius of Yuzu and Zhenya together.

But ... for which country would they skate in dance? I'm going to guess that to split the difference and not anger either the Japanese or Russian feds or fans, they'll get Slovene passports but train in Canada, under ... Dubreuil & Lauzon. The French are going to be SO angry!!

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I want something of what all of you (all those who replied to this story and made it more elaborate) have been smoking as well. And I can see Zhenya liking these ideas a lot

I really enjoyed reading this topic on my commute, hahah.
Especially, the Zhenya and Yuzu skating to live EXO and Eteri winning the next OGM had me laugh.

It was also fun to read the old prediction threads. There was a lot of Yulia and Mao there, who sadly both retired before the Olympics. I also saw some talk about how the Koreans were not going to 'let' Japan or Russia on the podium again, or give them a bronze at most. Well, that obviously didn't happen. There was one user who did make a lot of correct predictions for the ladies and men, which I think is quite a feat for all those years ago. Bold what came true:

Men- Hanyu looks the obvious favorite to repeat for now (again alot can happen in 4 years). Fernandez could still be around and a strong medal contender. Brown, Farris, and Kovtun have potential to be contenders by then. We will probably see some newer Japanese threats emerge. I doubt Chan, Ten, Machida will be around or a real factor even if any of them are.

Ladies- This is the hardest to say. I would guess neither Julia or Adelina will be on the 2018 Russian team though (although I hope I am wrong on Julia). It is quite possible even Radianova will be swallowed up by the Russian depth by then, although I would be particularly sad to see this. No idea who will be on the Russian team then, but all their reps will be medal contenders, although not sure if any Russian will be allowed to win at the next Games for the obvious reason. Gold should be a medal contender, and so should/could Edmunds. Wagner wont even make the team if she is around then. Either Osmond or Li have potential to be medal contenders by then, but everything would have to right for them from now until then. Same could be said for Chartrand and Daleman. Asada will compete in 2018 and will be a real contender for gold, and if it is at all close she will get every benefit from the judges this time around, unless there is a Korean who is a stronger contender. I hope Canada has atleast one medal contender by then.


(Made Daleman bold as she was seen as a medal contender, even though she didn't deliver).

My own predictions (some serious, some not):
Trusova, Shcherbakova on the Russian team + a younger Russian from Eteri's school (and Kostornaia in the mix). No matter how much I like them, I think Evgenia and Alina will be eclipsed as they eclipsed the generations above them. Eteri learned from training them to make even more fearless, confident champions. The difference with before is that I think Evgenia and Alina will remain relatively consistent compared to Tuk, Rad, Pogo etc, but just won't be able to compete with quads.
Also, Trusova will be a fan favourite and might show up in a manga or anime.

Yuzuru takes a year off to wear a Pooh suit in Disneylands all over the world, heals himself this way and starts learning the 4A. He lands this in 2020 and retires.

Jin Boyang medals at Olympics, hopefully gold. Gogolev ends in the top 5, and wins a Four Continents medal in the coming 4 years. Nathan Chen will do well if he does not retire or gets injured.

P/C take the gold. V/M do the interviews and M has a wardrobe malfunction as he hugs P to congratulate her.

Shoma shows up, but doesn't realize he's at the Olympics. Yuzu is in the audience to signal when to wave.

Yulia is the coach of a male skater who makes it to the Olympics.

The American ladies are still not on the podium, but things have changed in the US and they're building up strong contenders for 2026.

Daleman will land a 4T at some point in the coming 4 years. At least two other girls/ladies that are not her or Trusova will have landed quads in competition by then.

Wakaba will land a 3A. Rika Kihira will do some mad things and will win Worlds at least once. Marin Honda will be lamented as a promising talent who didn't make it. Kaori Sakamoto will be popular for TV programs and will be on the four continents podium at least twice more, though will not win a worlds medal.

So I made a lot of predictions, some (all?) of which will not come true. Am looking forward to reading this in 4 years and having to eat my words, because an American girl has won the Olympics and the other two on the podium are Yuna Kim and a former speed skater from the Netherlands

nekun said:

For all the men, if you all want the gold, please don't win the Olympic test event in Beijing a year befor the Olympic. It's even better when you get the silver.

The curse repeate itself.
-2009 4CC Vancouver, Patrick Chan won the gold, a year later he ended up off podium and silver medalist Lysacek won the OGM.
-2013 GPF Sochi, Takahashi won the gold, a year later he ended up off podium and silver medalist Hanyu won the OGM
-2017 4CC Gangneung,PyongChang, Nathan Chen won the gold, a year later he endep up off podium and silver medalist Hanyu won the OGM.

Thing geting so real and scary...

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Going to throw in a tip from Nate Silver: three data points is about when the human brain wants to find a pattern even when each event can be better explained by independent, unrelated factors. So I wouldn’t take that theory to the bank just yet.

Lysacek was arguably a fluke (or the Condorcet winner), Hanyu was clearly one to watch and had been doing well in the run up to the games while also having the advantage of youth (and tech), Chen has benefited from not having to face Hanyu most of the season and also was always at risk of inconsistency and/or cracking under pressure (as well as injury), and no one truly knew the state of the field due to Hanyu being a black box until he skated his short program. Chen’s odds could likely have been assessed more realistically (at least in the US media) if Hanyu hadn’t abruptly reappeared to remind everyone he existed.

Pairs : Sui/Han will win the gold, Seguin/Bilodeau on podium
Ice Dance: I predict someone new will win and P/C will end up with silver again
Ladies: newly emerged Russian girl will win, Someone from Eteri again. finally Japanese lady will be on podium ( I bet on Rika)
Hanyu goes for another quad , lands 4A before olys but decides he wants to land 4A at Olys , silver and gold will be between him and Boyang, 3rd place will go to someone new.
Nathan Chen will retire not making Beijing Olys at all. ( I know it sounds almost like madness but just my gut feeling )

Edit: at least 4 out of top 10 ladies will land either quad or 3A

Men: vincent zhou will medal
Ladies: an eteri girl will win
Ice dance: P/C